How should we handle a long-term Lunatic tier list?

[Redwall]

NOTE: No need to read most of this topic (just vote, and perhaps chime in with suggestions on the direction of a long-term list), but perhaps you should start at page 7 to get a sense of how a long-term Lunatic tier list might work.

This is an experimental tier list for Lunatic, with criteria inspired by those of other tier lists, in which the player is assumed to move as quickly as possible subject to reliability constraints, with varying combinations of characters which may include anything from Wyvern Sully to Villager Donnel. Although I'm not really interested in maintaining a tier list in the long term (too much work), I'd like to at least get a little bit of discussion going. If, for some strange reason, people continue to comment on this thread after a week or so, I'll probably ask a mod to close the thread, and anyone who's interested in managing a tier list of his or her own can pick up wherever we leave off.

[spoiler=Tiering criteria]Chance of death: The chance that Chrom or the Avatar die and force a Game Over. We subjectively adopt a threshold of 30%; if a strategy has greater than a 30% chance of a Game Over, then we neglect that strategy. Note that sacrificing other characters is permissible.

Conditional expectation value of turns saved, given no Game Overs: A character saves n turns in a given context if and only if the lowest possible turncount is n turns higher in his or her absence.

The conditional expectation value of the turncount, given no Game Overs, is the average value of the turncount assuming that a character death does not occur. Consider a strategy for the Prologue that has a 30% chance of clearing in four turns, a 34% chance of clearing in five turns, and a 36% chance of getting Chrom killed. The conditional expectation value of the turncount, given no Game Overs, is simply 4*30/(30+34) + 5*34/(30+34) = 4.53 turns.

Now assume the optimal strategy in Lissa's absence has a 25% chance of clearing in four turns, 39% of clearing in five turns, and a 36% chance of getting Chrom killed. The conditional expectation value of the turncount, given no Game Overs, is 4.61 turns. Hence, we say that Lissa can be expected to save 4.61 - 4.53 = 0.08 turns if a death does not occur.

There does not exist a self-consistent method of accounting for the chance of death via a turncount penalty, necessitating a separate treatment of the chance of death.

[spoiler=Other rules] 1. No Spotpass.

2. A base Renown of 330, which roughly corresponds to one playthrough, is assumed at the start of the game, with 10 Renown being awarded for each completed level thereafter.

3. No DLC.

4. Save for Paralogue characters, all characters are assumed to be recruited.

5. All Paralogues are optional and may be visited at any time.

I can change these rules if people wish, as they are obviously arbitrary.

Renown Awards

The Glass Sword, Second Seal, Orsin's Hatchet, Seed of Trust, Levin Sword, and Energy Drop are free as soon as Renown becomes accessible.

Beast Killer (after completion of 7 post-Prologue maps)

Spirit Dust (after completion of 14 post-Prologue maps)

Celica's Gale (after completion of 22 post-Prologue maps)

Secret Book (after completion of 30 post-Prologue maps)

Longbow (after completion of 39 post-Prologue maps)

Top

Frederick

Avatar (M/F)

S Tier

Morgan (M/F)

Olivia

Libra

Anna

Sumia

A Tier

Chrom

Cordelia

Lissa

Maribelle

Lucina (Avatar)

B Tier

Lon'qu

Panne

Tharja

Henry

Cherche

Tiki

Gaius

C Tier

Nowi

Sully

Stahl

Kellam

Miriel

Ricken

Say'ri

Gregor

Basilio

Flavia

Vaike

Virion

D Tier

Donnel

Edited June 9, 2013 by Integrity

[-Cynthia-]

I think you missed Vaike.

[Redwall]

Thanks, Vaike has been added.

Some food for discussion:

-is Panne S tier? Without the Second Seal (so far Renown isn't being assumed), she's a good Pair Up for Cordelia, and with the Second Seal, she can obviously be pretty dangerous.

-C tier is kind of a mess. Maybe a D tier should be made, but I don't think there are very large differences among the C-tier characters: all have situational uses if we assume the best characters are fielded, while they can also become competent if we assume not all the best characters are fielded. What do you think?

[Florete]

I considered starting one of these but wasn't sure we were ready yet. But I'll jump in. I'd be willing to pick it up when you're done.

ITT Tiki is God. I propose she goes Top when we make a Lunatic tier list.

Maybe not Top but yeah. I know she comes late but she still deserves at least A tier.

Just some quick thoughts:

Morgan - S tier might be okay, but considering s/he comes halfway through the game, effectively 3rd best unit in the game is probably too much.

Olivia - Dancing is pretty amazing, but it feels odd to have her above most of the people whom she relies on for strategies to actually work, especially...

Anna/Libra - I'm assuming Rescue is viable for these two to make it so high. As long as that's the case, I don't really have anything to say on them.

Lucina (Avatar) - Why so much lower than Morgan? Avatar!Lucina is potentially better than Morgan. She has, well, the Avatar for her mother, which is what makes Morgan so good, and even though it may be minimal, she has more availability. And then she has Rapiers and Parallel Falchion and all that jazz.

Tharja/Henry - Nos-tank worse than Cherche/Lon'qu? And this isn't HM where that's kind of not-so-great, either.

Cherche - In fact, what is she doing above Nowi, Sully, and Stahl, much less with a full tier gap? She comes fairly late comparatively, does not have the stats to make up for it, and only has flying to her name, but Sully could easily be a better Wyvern by this point anyway.

Nowi/Sully/Stahl - Up at least a tier, if not more. I don't see Chrom even a full tier better and I see Sully > Chrom.

Virion > Flavia/Basilio - Early chip is better than their 3 chapters of whatever no matter how you slice it, really. Although there may be better choices, Lunatic is a place you do want at least one high level Bow user, and Virion is at least the first choice you get to start preparing.

Basilio > Flavia - Rally Strength and Wyvern sniping. In HM I'd say Flavia wins, but Basilio's sideline support nets him the win here.

I also think a Renown baseline should be established. I really don't think it's reasonable to assume a normal player would go into Lunatic without using any Renown.

-is Panne S tier? Without the Second Seal (so far Renown isn't being assumed), she's a good Pair Up for Cordelia, and with the Second Seal, she can obviously be pretty dangerous.

Eh, not sure I even see her as A tier. Resources such as Second Seals are more valuable, getting her to 10 is more difficult, and there's a lot more accurate anti-air.

[PKL]

Sully>Chrom in Lunatic is a joke right Red Fox? Please, you're joking right?

[Florete]

Sully>Chrom in Lunatic is a joke right Red Fox? Please, you're joking right?

Yeah, what am I thinking? Better overall base class and class choices, same stats but more Move and Lances, a chapter and turn of less availability (so much!), and many more support options with better support bonuses. What the hell am I doing here?

[PKL]

Chrom is downright needed to beat the first chapters. Movement doesn't matter as much because both cant handle an EP in Lunatic well at all. But at least Chrom has the whole "being the best pairup in the earlygame" going for him. Sully is almost OHKO'd on join, doesnt double for a looooong time and her going wyvern is a joke. It works in HM, but this is different. Due to how FE13 is, eventually Sully would be a good unit, but her start is atrocious enough in Lunatic to make her worthy of C tier.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Peekayell

[Jedi]

Yeah, what am I thinking? Better overall base class and class choices, same stats but more Move and Lances, a chapter and turn of less availability (so much!), and many more support options with better support bonuses. What the hell am I doing here?

Chrom gives +3 speed on pair up. I think that's a bit more important then what Sully gives in the early chapters

[charlie_]

Sully has better bases: in res and luck. Chrom's likely gained a level by that time, and will have access to the Falchion to deal more damage than Sully can. I don't really see Sully's lead tbh, by the time they're strong enough to face prolonged enemy phase combat, Chrom could probably have a horse himself.

Both Cavs are pretty bad tbh. Stahl is doubled and ORKOed by any Mercs or Soldiers in Chapter 2, and Sully is doubled by Soldiers and doubled by Brigands.

Edit: I don't see how Avatar Lucina is THAT far from Morgan, considering they have roughly the same join time and stats.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Essbee

[Ema Skye]

Why is Lucina!Avatar so far below Morgan when the two are basically the same unit, only Lucina has a hax PRF?

Also Sully's bases are barely better than Chrom's (1 Luck and 1 Resistance). That's not winning any awards for... a while. Having the option to go wyvern is nice, but getting whacked by a Rexcalibur sucks, whereas Beast Killers are really quite rare in comparison (for Cav/Pally!Chrom).

Not to mention that Chrom's +Spe pair up is necessary for any Avatar build that doesn't use +spe, because they will get doubled without that +3 Speed (which is common, I believe the most used builds for Lunatic Avatar's are +HP or +Def. I prefer +HP but I think +Def is more common). Heck, Chrom's +3 Speed support is near essential for anyone not to get doubled in earlygame, cept for like Sumia or Lon'qu.

[Florete]

Chrom is downright needed to beat the first chapters. Movement doesn't matter as much because both cant handle an EP in Lunatic well at all. But at least Chrom has the whole "being the best pairup in the earlygame" going for him. Sully is almost OHKO'd on join, doesnt double for a looooong time and her going wyvern is a joke. It works in HM, but this is different.

Chrom may arguably be "needed" in Prologue for being one of very few units, but is no more needed later on. Seriously, have you looked at their bases and growths? They are very nearly identical, but Sully has the advantage of Lances (including Javelins), Move, better Pair Up bonuses, better immediate promotion choices, and much more flexibility in support partners while Chrom has Dual Strike+ and Rapiers/Falchion. Those are cool, but really now?

Chrom gives +3 speed on pair up. I think that's a bit more important then what Sully gives in the early chapters

As a quick example, to beat Ch 2, Fred really wants Defense. If you also want someone who can dual attack, this basically needs to be Sully, Stahl, or Virion. Def in general is a better bonus early on than Chrom's 2 extra Spd because that usually won't be the difference between any kind of doubling (doubling or being doubled). And of course, building support only means this Def (and Str/Spd) bonus increases.

Seriously, people, Spd/Lck vs Str/Skl/Spd/Def and somehow Chrom is winning?

Sully has better bases: in res and luck.

Also Sully's bases are barely better than Chrom's (1 Luck and 1 Resistance)

Dafuq, people, I said "same" stats. But I guess thanks for proving me wrong in a way that helps my argument. How the hell does Chrom win when they have the same stats but Sully has other advantages Chrom doesn't have much of an answer to?

access to the Falchion to deal more damage than Sully can.

Sure, against one enemy type. Indeed it is nice for Ch 5, but otherwise Falchion is just an unbreakable Iron Sword.

@Wyvern!Sully: Yeah, there are problems. I mentioned that for Panne. But Wyvern > Lord. And for what it may be worth, Myrmidon > Archer.

Chrom's likely gained a level by that time

PE, but he didn't here. Avatar and especially Fred do the heavy lifting early on.

[Vapo]

Chrom is downright needed to beat the first chapters. Movement doesn't matter as much because both cant handle an EP in Lunatic well at all. But at least Chrom has the whole "being the best pairup in the earlygame" going for him. Sully is almost OHKO'd on join, doesnt double for a looooong time and her going wyvern is a joke. It works in HM, but this is different. Due to how FE13 is, eventually Sully would be a good unit, but her start is atrocious enough in Lunatic to make her worthy of C tier.

Uhh, Chrom isn't needed. Frederick is a better pair-up early game and can make MU into a killing machine starting from Chapter 1 onwards especially if you do the stay-on-water method for the prologue. Frederick, besides from the Prologue, and even then he's not that needed, isn't required AT ALL. He's best as pair-up fodder, so that you can actually train other units without over-grinding.

Oh, and efficiency is a really bad thing to base Loony usability on. Loony especially. Probably the best and most reliable strategies involve more than 4 or 5 turns. For example, the staying on water method for the second half of the prologue: this takes 30-40 turns, but makes MU into an absolute killing machine for Chapter 1 onwards.

[Redwall]

I considered starting one of these but wasn't sure we were ready yet. But I'll jump in. I'd be willing to pick it up when you're done.

Sounds good; hopefully this thread does something to get the ball rolling for your own tier list.

Maybe not Top but yeah. I know she comes late but she still deserves at least A tier.

I disagree. We agree with Flavia and Basilio being ranked low because they appear in C23; I don't see any need to place Tiki that much higher for having another four chapters (C19-C22) on them. I can't see Tiki above mid- or high-B tier at best.

Just some quick thoughts:

Morgan - S tier might be okay, but considering s/he comes halfway through the game, effectively 3rd best unit in the game is probably too much.

Just as Frederick and the Avatar are supremely amazing in the opening act of the game, so too is Morgan supremely amazing upon joining; units like Chrom, meanwhile, are simply "pretty good" throughout the game. Perhaps third-best unit is a bit high for Morgan, but I cannot presently see any other unit filling that spot.

Olivia - Dancing is pretty amazing, but it feels odd to have her above most of the people whom she relies on for strategies to actually work, especially...

I don't see the problem. There's no logically necessary reason to punish Olivia for being dependent on a combat unit to do the dirty work. Often a Lunatic team will benefit more from adding Olivia than from adding another combat unit since the EXP distribution is going to be concentrated onto fewer units with Olivia present.

Lucina (Avatar) - Why so much lower than Morgan? Avatar!Lucina is potentially better than Morgan. She has, well, the Avatar for her mother, which is what makes Morgan so good, and even though it may be minimal, she has more availability. And then she has Rapiers and Parallel Falchion and all that jazz.

Tharja/Henry - Nos-tank worse than Cherche/Lon'qu? And this isn't HM where that's kind of not-so-great, either.

Morgan has 1-2 range over her, and can simultaneously have Galeforce (inheritance) and Veteran. Yeah, the Parallel Falchion rocks, but even with Veteran, I found Lucina really difficult to train since she was sword-locked. Promoting her to Great Lord didn't change anything since she would have needed 15 rounds of combat with a forged Log just to get Javelins. I'll move her into A tier now that you mention her perks, but I don't think Morgan vs. Lucina is a contest at all.

Cherche - In fact, what is she doing above Nowi, Sully, and Stahl, much less with a full tier gap? She comes fairly late comparatively, does not have the stats to make up for it, and only has flying to her name, but Sully could easily be a better Wyvern by this point anyway.

Flight is pretty much it; she can also take a Master Seal to insta-promote for an extra Mov point, which is helpful for nabbing treasure and ferrying staffbots. She can also aid in cleaning up C12, though this is comparatively minor. I have in mind a pretty Rescue-heavy playstyle, making flying over obstacles pretty useful.

Nowi/Sully/Stahl - Up at least a tier, if not more. I don't see Chrom even a full tier better and I see Sully > Chrom.

I think all three of Nowi, Sully, and Stahl have situational uses, but Nowi is the only one who lays claim to being invincible after reaching critical mass. Stahl is way too slow, and gets doubled in his joining chapter. Sully takes a surprisingly long time to get going since she's Lv 2 and gets OHKOed in her join chapter by Barbarians unless she gets Stahl's Bronze Sword. I don't think Chrom is that bad since C5 and C7 nab him easy EXP and since Dual Attack+ nets him a lot of secondary EXP.

Virion > Flavia/Basilio - Early chip is better than their 3 chapters of whatever no matter how you slice it, really. Although there may be better choices, Lunatic is a place you do want at least one high level Bow user, and Virion is at least the first choice you get to start preparing.

I think I'll move all of Virion, Flavia, Basilio up slightly now that you mention it. In the playthrough I list in my sig, Virion served as chip damage in C1, C2, C5, and C6, though his post-C1 contributions could have been replicated by a Mage. In contrast, Flavia and Basilio were solid in C23 and pretty much required for C24; Basilio was also helpful in Final for me due to Rally Str.

Basilio > Flavia - Rally Strength and Wyvern sniping. In HM I'd say Flavia wins, but Basilio's sideline support nets him the win here.

I agree. Not sure what I was thinking.

I also think a Renown baseline should be established. I really don't think it's reasonable to assume a normal player would go into Lunatic without using any Renown.

I agree. How does one playthrough's worth of Renown (~330) to start sound, with 10 Renown being awarded for each completed level thereafter?

Eh, not sure I even see her as A tier. Resources such as Second Seals are more valuable, getting her to 10 is more difficult, and there's a lot more accurate anti-air.

Panne's a pretty good Pairbot even without the Second Seal: she gives +4 or so to each of Str and Spd and supports with Cordelia, who is pretty solid thanks to Rally Speed and being a flying Rescue user. With the Second Seal, she can just get Rescued by a staffbot if anti-air appears.

I feel like we're talking past each other since we have different views on how quickly to play; for the time being, I'll stick with my LTC-oriented criteria, but you're obviously free to do things your way when you take over.

Edit: I don't see how Avatar Lucina is THAT far from Morgan, considering they have roughly the same join time and stats.

Why is Lucina!Avatar so far below Morgan when the two are basically the same unit, only Lucina has a hax PRF?

Yeah, I'll move Lucina up a bit, though I think Morgan is still substantially better due to not needing Levin Swords to counter 2-range units.

Oh, and efficiency is a really bad thing to base Loony usability on. Loony especially. Probably the best and most reliable strategies involve more than 4 or 5 turns. For example, the staying on water method for the second half of the prologue: this takes 30-40 turns, but makes MU into an absolute killing machine for Chapter 1 onwards.

You should check out the playlog in my sig. The only levels in which I made huge gambles were C20 (not necessary since my team had enough bulk to power through at a slower pace) and Final (necessary because my Avatar was Mag-screwed and because I didn't spend much time training Chrom). Had I been playing more reliably, I would probably have needed no more than eight or so extra turns of Chrom-training and other miscellaneous things to complete the campaign.

If this were Lunatic+, I'd agree, but Lunatic enemies are weak enough to permit reasonably fast play.

Hmm, should there be a "Unique Utility" tier for guys like Fred, Avatar, and Chrom who have contributions that are required? Fred has the earlygame, in which he will be contributing either as a Pairbot for +Def Avatar or as a lead combatant. Avatar and Chrom have the Premonition.

[Interceptor]

Premonition is basically a cutscene. Nothing that you do there has any impact on the actual game.

[Chiki]

Chrom is downright needed to beat the first chapters.

Nope. Not even for LTC.

Hmm, should there be a "Unique Utility" tier for guys like Fred, Avatar, and Chrom who have contributions that are required?

Why can't you compare their contributions to that of other characters'?

I'm also not too sure if it's really required.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Chiki

[Titamon]

Is Sumia really S tier worthy? My experience with her in this mode is that she just explodes to anything physical. Does earlygame flight/ferrying and Spd support really place her up that high?

[ZemZem]

Frederick Pair Up? I reckon that would improve Sumia and his own combat immensely.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Zeem

[Titamon]

Frederick Pair Up? I reckon that would improve Sumia and his own combat immensely.

The thing is, even with Pair up Sumia is still frail. In fact, I think Earlygame Axemen still OHKO her with Frederick in her pocket.

[ZemZem]

I can imagine it'd be a lot more rough to train Sumia in LM, but I was just throwing it out there because people really like Frederick/Sumia. I myself haven't done LM, so I can't really contribute.

[XeKr]

Suppose we have 60% chance to clear in 1 turn, or death. Would you consider it superior to a strategy that has a 60% to clear in 1 turn and 40% chance to clear 2 turns?

[Redwall]

Premonition is basically a cutscene. Nothing that you do there has any impact on the actual game.

Why can't you compare their contributions to that of other characters'?

I'm also not too sure if it's really required.

I realize it's customary to ignore required things like the Lord seizing and such, but with the current criteria, I think making a separate tier, following SDS's example in one of the older tier lists, may be the cleanest thing to try. Chrom's worth in a given context is determined by removing him from that context and seeing how conditional expectation value of turncounts change; in the case of the Premonition, removing Chrom (e.g. sandbagging him) does nothing if the Avatar is used, but sandbagging both Chrom and the Avatar makes the Premonition "impossible." I would disagree with the claim that the Premonition has no impact on the actual game since it is necessary to get past it to even see the Prologue.

The thing is, even with Pair up Sumia is still frail. In fact, I think Earlygame Axemen still OHKO her with Frederick in her pocket.

Yes. I only consider her worth as a +Spd partner and ferry for Frederick.

Suppose we have 60% chance to clear in 1 turn, or death. Would you consider it superior to a strategy that has a 60% to clear in 1 turn and 40% chance to clear 2 turns?

Intuitively we both prefer the latter, but the criteria as written favor the former. I don't know what to do about that; I'm open to suggestions.

[JSND Alter Dragon Boner]

Mind if I ask why the Nosferatu user are that low on the list?

Edited June 5, 2013 by JSND

[Chiki]

If you're going to tier for Premonition as well, then that Avatar and that Chrom clearly aren't the same characters as the ones in the main game. The only thing they have in common is that they have the same portrait.

They're literally from different times, too.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Chiki

[Da Bear]

Mind if I ask why the Nosferatu user are that low on the list?

I was wondering this as well. In LM while Tharja can have hit problems and Henry has doubling problems they're both still a lot better than say Sumia who's getting 1HKOed either immediately or very soon and isn't exactly growing in defense. LM features the need for durability

[Redwall]

If you're going to tier for Premonition as well, then that Avatar and that Chrom clearly aren't the same characters as the ones in the main game. The only thing they have in common is that they have the same portrait.

They're literally from different times, too.

OK, how about this: I separately include in Required tier the Premonition incarnations of the Avatar and Chrom. The "present" Avatar and Chrom can then have their post-Premonition contributions tiered as is. If Red Fox of Fire can tier the 3-13 Archer in RD, I think this should be OK too. Although having never played RD, I cannot tell if the Archer was a serious inclusion or a joke one.

Mind if I ask why the Nosferatu user are that low on the list?

My idea is that they're being used primarily as Pair Ups by the Avatar (who benefits a lot from +Mag and +Def) and by the staff users (who can also benefit from increased Rescue range). I've never used Tharja and Henry as lead combat units, so feel free to make an argument in their favor.

I was wondering this as well. In LM while Tharja can have hit problems and Henry has doubling problems they're both still a lot better than say Sumia who's getting 1HKOed either immediately or very soon and isn't exactly growing in defense. LM features the need for durability

Under the criteria I've adopted, I don't see any need to penalize Sumia for being Frederick's ferry/Spd-bot. Combat in its own right does not necessarily have anything to do with tier lists.