Drafters Mafia Game Thread - GAME OVER

[CT075]

nope

[Prims]

im gay

[CT075]

Prims has been confirmed as gay

[Strege]

Baldrick, I wish I knew some drafting jargon!

I dunno if the watcher claim is necessarily suspicious. It might be overpowered with a doc if scum doesn't have a ninja or strongman, but the problem with that thinking is that we have no idea what scum has. I still find Shin suspicious, but the only claim that stands out to me as suspicious by itself is bearclaw's.

Bleh, I was kinda hoping we'd break the game somehow with the massclaim since this whole scumhunting thing hasn't worked out so far. At any rate, I'd still like everyone to just state the names of the top few people they'd like to lynch if they haven't done so already. We're running short on time.

[Baldrick]

Strege, you should try a draft sometime!

Once you get a few more games under your belt, you'll know massclaim only breaks the game open and exposes the scum when I'm scum ;/

(albeit mostly because I'm incompetent and screw up fakeclaims, then implicate the rest of my team)

My lynching pref is Shin > JB > Bear . I'd really like JB to expand on his role, especially if it works in LYLO, since it may change the dynamic of the game.

[BBM]

My preference goes Bear > Shin. JB fits in there somewhere, depending on whether his Mayor works in LYLO or not. I'll explain which version would be more likely to be scum after he reveals it, so he can't alter it to make it look townier.

[Baldrick]

I'll cede to your knowledge, but I always thought vote-affecting abilities shut down in MYLO/LYLO as a general rule. I was only asking because he didn't mention whether or not it still worked.

[Jaybee]

Well the three obvious reasons for why Breezy is alive are:

1) Breezy is mafia.

2) Breezy is town, but the mafia thought Kirsche was a bigger threat.

3) Breezy is town, and the kill got redirected from Breezy to Kirsche.

The second reason implies that Kirsche is town, and they killed him because they were afraid of him for whatever reason (I personally thought he was crumbing Rolecop).

why would breezy get janned

I was waiting to get popcorned, but it's been long enough that I'll claim. I'm Refa, town voyeur. Prims got copped N0, nothing happened to Shin N1, and Shinori got delayed N2. So apparently there's a delaying role in the game?

My apologies for inactivity--my fair lady got back from her move only yesterday, and that's thrown my schedule all out of whack, and I'm tired/have a headache half the day because of it.

not sure if this n0 prims result is terrador not realising shinori wasn't actually cop and failclaiming or someone else is cop

and judging from the fact that we have no cop claim

hello scum?

Oh, JB, checking something: Does your mayor power deactivate at *YLO?

always doublevote

[scorri]

JB: It's also possible that someone's lying about their claim?

Well, if you're scum with that role, game would be over right now. Hmm... Odd though. Your double vote doesn't affect the number of votes required to lynch?

[BBM]

So yeah, if JB can prove his ability, he's probably town because otherwise scum would have vote parity. Therefore I'd request him to hammer whomever we choose to lynch today. If him voting someone at L-2 (4 votes) causes a hammer, he's most likely town.

[Terrador]

not sure if this n0 prims result is terrador not realising shinori wasn't actually cop and failclaiming or someone else is cop

and judging from the fact that we have no cop claim

hello scum?

Or it could be a mafia cop, or kirsche might have had a cop role, be it alignment or role? Or the cop could just not be claiming because s/he hasn't found scum? If I were scum, I'd just claim that one of my scumbuddies' roles hit him, and they'd corroborate--but no dice. Why so certain I'm scummy, JB?

[BBM]

Scorri, who do you want to lynch today? I'm not sure you've said who you find scummy after Shinori won.

[scorri]

That's cause I dunno who I find scummy. Breezy's been one of my main scum reads, but the more I think about it, without a cop, it's likely that Breezy is in fact telling the truth cause otherwise, ugh. My case on him was based pretty much completely on D1 since he wasn't around a lot D2, so there's that too. Also I feel like I've probably been tunneling and should back off and consider more people.

Your point about JB is basically what I was thinking when I asked him in the first place how his role worked. It not affect hammer reqs is odd, but that's probably just so that presence of mayor wasn't revealed. He's never been on a lynched person (all 2 of them) so there's no data to work with there, but your suggestion should deal with it just fine.

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Bear either. FMPOV, claiming mason with a jan'd target is suspect, yes, but the more I've thought about it, the less I see scum intent behind it. The fact that we have an apparent cop around means that someone's lying about their role (either Terra is making up results or someone's lying about not being cop) which means that scum probably has fakeclaims. Honestly, even without terra's report, it'd probably be safe to assume scum has fake claims. So why would bear claim mason's with a jan'd dead person, something that is suspicious, if he had a fakeclaim? I just don't see scum intent behind it as I've thought about it more. Because of that, I'm not interested in lynching him today. His claim would be so dumb as mafia, that it feels like it almost has to be real.

So I guess that leaves Baldrick, Shin, Strege, BBM, and Terra. Of those 5... Ugh. I'd been noobtown reading Terra, which I guess would leave a scum team of Baldrick, Shin, Strege, and BBM? So I guess one of those four. I dunno which one I would most like to lynch out of them, I'm going to try to read some ISO's tomorrow, but right now it's 3 AM and I really should sleep.

[Terrador]

Alright, time for some reads. ISO TIME LET'S GO

Shin: Not many posts, but they're content-dense. Very little mention of scorri or BBM--I'll see what they said about him later. If pretty much nothing... eh. There could be a problem there. Personally, I'd really like him to talk about Baldrick's behavior, since he was pretty suspicious about Rapier. I'm still not comfortable with him--smart guys being quiet scares me.

scorri: She's looking good, frankly. She's been talking about her reads on most everyone (at least who's still alive), been willing to double back on reads she thought weren't too good, and been real active after Day 1. I suppose one could make a case for tryhard scum, but I'd call her townie at this juncture.

BBM: Okay, first off, he talked about voyeur being a shitty mafia role, which got me thinking about what the mafia could be capable of/has at its disposal. Forgive my digression--I just wanna put some thoughts out there. Prims got picked off N1, and copped N0, and now that I think about that, that almost confirms a mafia role inspector. Mafia has only pulled off one kidnap, which is very peculiar indeed. It appears to only be one or two shots, which is very odd. Obviously, they had a janitor kill--however, I think there was only one. As a mafioso, I personally would janitor Prims after knowing his role. Why? Simple--to confuse the town as to the nature of kills. I wouldn't bank on a better opportunity showing up. That said, I'm betting that kirsche was copped N1, and the mafia realized that janitoring him/her would also implicate the mason--although I'm not certain if the mafia know who that mason is. So, at this point, with a mafia team of four, we have a cop, a kidnapper (perhaps with other powers... maybe s/he's the ninja?), and then some two other roles--from my experience in Smogon mafia, in a game where all players have power roles, the mafia will, too.

Moving on to the actual read: First off, the kidnap. From his heavy involvement and from what I generally know of him, he strikes me as the kind to attempt a sophisticated play like that. Nobody else being kidnapped is more than a little strange, but maybe the kidnap's been getting screwed up (commuted by scorri with more shots than she claims, delayed, et cetera) by a string of bad luck for the mafia. I don't like BBM's logic in a couple places, either--in particular, "Doc/Watcher OP" argument on Shin. He says that they're OP because mafia needs a ninja--which they are demonstrated to have had. He seems to smart to slip up like that. I'd reckon he's scummy. I'd call him and Shin the start of the scumteam, but BBM's willingness to attack Shin could just as easily be a tell that at most one of the two is scum as another sophisticated play. But, all in all, I'm a bit suspicious of BBM--and I'm not sure how to read his claiming delayer right after I confirmed it's in the game. Evidence says a null read, but I just can't trust him.

bearclaw: I think he's town, and here's why. Making the cop/mason mixup with regards to kirsche is absolutely something that scumteam wouldn't allow. If he was going to fakeclaim, he would bounce it off of them, and it would be shot down in quite literally a heartbeat. I've played scumteams before, and while they generally allow some autonomy with reads and in-thread play, fakeclaims and night roles are painstakingly pored over. I refuse to believe a scumteam this dominant would allow this apparent slip-up.

Rapier/Baldrick: I'm not sure where to stand here. Shin's scummy, and pressed Rapier pretty damn hard; similarly, Baldrick claimed Vengeful, which is literally impossible to safely provide any evidence for (besides Tracker mindgames...?), but he didn't do so under duress. They've provided content, but also been lazy (although I admit I've seen both town and scum get subbed out). Call this a null read--I'm frankly not sure.

Breezy: I still think he's town. He's been eerily quiet, but... at the same time, I get the feeling that he's pretty much lost here. I know IRL inactivity was a thing, but I'm starting to be uneasy about that inactivity. That said, between his almost guaranteed confirmation as tracker and my feeling that tracker would be a bit silly for mafia in a game where nearly everyone appears to have a targeted power-role, I'll let the evidence tell the story.

Strege: He looks like a townie to me. He seems to be a sharp and sophisticated player, much in the vein of BBM--however, he's posted a lot of content that I haven't found a single hole in yet. His inactivity in the past 24 hours confuses me, but... I dunno. I'm just not that suspicious of him. He seems persuasive enough that he could tip the tide and create some bandwagons as scum, but he's insisted on logical integrity, picking apart bad points even on people who appear suspicious to him. He hasn't talked about some people, but that's consistent with his logic about how not every list post need necessarily talk about everyone.

JB: He's been quiet, using logic with pretty sizable holes in it, hasn't really done much in-depth work besides in two big posts, should have known Prims was joking and was still suspicious--perhaps he was using the momentum against Prims to try to not burn a kill? I really dislike his behavior, and I don't have much to go on, but I've seen nothing that appears to be a towntell. And, with regards to town doublevote? It seems rather odd for game balance to me, personally. Between Elie being impossible to kill and a mayor in the day, that puts the mafia at a pretty huge numbers disadvantage. Admittedly, the town doesn't have much information (clearly), which has clearly leveled the playing field, I'm not one to judge meta in a community I have no experience mafia-ing with, and nothing's disproved the Mayor claim so far, but... his behavior remains suspicious.

All in all, the players in terms of most scummy to least scummy, at least as I see it:

JB
BBM
Shin

Baldrick
Strege

scorri

Breezy

Bearclaw

JB, pray tell, how do you explain being so quiet when you can only contribute in the thread? I don't like how you've played, I don't trust it, and although I find nothing particularly suspicious with your claim, everything else screams "scum" to me.

##Lynch JB

[Terrador]

Oh, and one last thing--I didn't see Balders' question toward me:

Terrador: Prims got copped n0? Can only assume it's a rolecop, or did Shinori actually have alignment investigation?

Shinori being delayed doesn't sound like anything that's claimed so far, so it must be BBM? Can't think of anything scum would want to do to Shinori at that stage.

Until I read through the ISOs. I was confused until I did one more read and we started getting claims, but that was addressed in the previous post. My apologies for not getting to it sooner.

[BBM]

When did the mafia prove they had a Ninja?

[Terrador]

They killed kirsche, and he didn't flip. Tell you what--I'll doublecheck Epicmafia wiki and see what ninja is, because I think we have a disconnect here, and I'm realizing that not flipping a role PM wouldn't allow you to safely kill a Doc/Watcher combo.

[BBM]

Also, it's not just Doc/Watcher OP hurrdurr, it's that Tracker/Watcher/Voyeur is a lot of investigation, especially considering how strong Watcher can be if used well.

Also, hiding flips is a Janitor, not a Ninja, and you refer to Kirsche getting janned as well. I don't buy that you don't know what a Janitor is.

[Terrador]

That role never showed up on Smogon, and I didn't trawl through other mafia games here. I've honest-to-God not seen a non-flipped kill before this game. You're right on the whole janitor/ninja terminology bit, but I legit didn't know.This is one of those things I explicitly noted earlier: I'm familiar with mafia generally, but some specifics will have not shown up to me. E.G.: the Janitor bit.

Also, with regards to Watcher/Tracker/Voyeur: I don't think that's a shady claim, frankly. That seems like an appropriate amount of town investigation, with no absolutes and, as of yet, only two clearly scummy roles evidenced. I'm starting to think this game was set up to require a lot of cooperation for any real information, seeing as we apparently don't have a town cop of any sort. A lack of absolutes is not fun when mafia are skilled. I know personal experience means nothing, but do you really think that Tracker + one of Voyeur/Watcher (as I presume you're thinking) is enough investigation in a game where we've gotten a whole lot of jack shit re: mafia lynches?

[Terrador]

Oh, gawd, how did I not admit that my logic derped on the ninja thing earlier? Christ, I'm forgetting things all over the place. You're right about there not being a ninja, and I am a very stupid person. Further, Ninja would be insanely OP in a game where apparently the only town investigative roles aren't concrete. I feel like I'm talking in circles about Shin, but... honestly, his interactions, posts, and claims have really made me more confused about him than anyone else, and I'm hoping we can figure him out if enough ideas get tossed around.

[BBM]

You greatly underestimate what a Watcher can do. Not only does it dissuade the mafia from killing claimed power roles, it can catch them at the same time if they try. It can also catch non-killing scummy roles. If Shin had targeted me N0, he would have caught the Kidnapper. It's not as ezmode as Cop to use, but it's a lot more versatile and even Ninjas don't counter it effectively because they don't really get cleared. It doesn't result in possibly false clears like Cop can with a Godfather. And it's good at catching people out in lies at massclaim stage.

Tracker is not amazing and Voyeur is worse still, but they can also catch people out in targeting lies. Tracker + Voyeur wouldn't be all that weak (I've seen weaker investigative towns), and if Bearclaw really is telling the truth (and you believe he is), the setup was also designed around two players being confirmed town.

[Terrador]

First off, I wouldn't call Masons "confirmed town". Yes, if one is killed, the other is easily proven, and they're cleared to each other, and generally easier to prove, but... it's far weaker than the hosts stepping in and saying "these two players are town-aligned, guaranteed".

Furthermore, I'd just like to note: Watcher dissuading mafia seems like a silly argument without a Cop in play. They have to claim to be a dissuading factor (unless the mafia knows they exist due to secret information...? I haven't ever seen a mafia get that a role -does- exist--just that one -doesn't-), and that leaves them themselves vulnerable to getting shot. That said, yeah--it seems like Watcher is better than I gave it credit for. As for what to make of that--my brain's going in circles. I think it'll take awhile for me to parse out the implications of that role being claimed, frankly. Still don't trust Shin's play, but that role is still turning my head around at the moment.

[Jaybee]

i do not understand terrador's stuff about watcher - it's probably better than tracker early because you can just watch the pro players get killed and in mid/late game when the roles get thinned out, it's a little weaker but still really good.

JB: It's also possible that someone's lying about their claim?

Well, if you're scum with that role, game would be over right now. Hmm... Odd though. Your double vote doesn't affect the number of votes required to lynch?

i'll answer first part later

i honestly don't know about the second, i don't think it affects the number of players needed to hammer but the number of effective votes only.

Or it could be a mafia cop, or kirsche might have had a cop role, be it alignment or role? Or the cop could just not be claiming because s/he hasn't found scum? If I were scum, I'd just claim that one of my scumbuddies' roles hit him, and they'd corroborate--but no dice. Why so certain I'm scummy, JB?

because i find it... coincidental that you'd said prims was copped n0, the exact same thing shinori said he did? there's a chance you'd forgotten shinori wasn't actually alignment cop during a fakeclaim.

also from kirsche's early play i'm inclined to believe that he had no investigation role. if i were town cop i'd claim anyway because getting some clears out is still really good. i don't get what you're saying for your last point.

i'm not going to bother quoting your big post but the fact that you STILL want to go on me for the prims d1 thing makes me want to cut my intestines out. i could buy you not understanding things like the elie joke vig, but you're still on this after about a week irl. how desperate can you get?

i don't see how mayor + elie's bp makes the game unbalanced against mafia or anything, given the fact that town doesn't seem to have any hard investigative roles. it's not as though mafia is suddenly so limited in their choice of who to kill or push for lynch because woah bulletproof.

[Jaybee]

and guess who else overreacted to the prims thing

lalala pot kettle etc

[Paperblade]

(1) JB: Terrador

Not Voting: Everyone else