Kirby Mafia - Game Over

[BBM]

Okay, I guess we have a SK. Probably 11/3/1 or 10/4/1?

##Vote: Grassbridger

PoE + weird interactions with Scorri. She never said a single thing directly about him, which is sort of weird seeing as he was on the cusp of being a wagon, and he had a semi-push on her due to the Jalmont kill, but then never went anywhere with that He had a post talking about how she was defending Refa a lot, but that was pretty waffly and ended up saying she looked less likely to be scum. Then later when Paper said that he was calling a lot of people scummy, he called her a town/null read and said that he'd never called her scummy.

Kay needs to come back. I don't remember her posting anything after the spat with Boron near the beginning of D2.

[Grassbridger]

Honestly I forgot all about my "semi-push" on her, I'm assuming you're referring to saying that a scumteam with her on it would be slightly more likely to kill Jalmont first. It wasn't a very strong point, anyway, since Jalmont had such a good role. I guess in retrospect scum without scorri could have kept Jalmont alive in hope that he'd autolynch her--I pointed out that Jalmont would probably have targeted her, but I guess I never quite put that together with speculation about her alignment. Also, what I actually said was that I thought her+Refa was less likely than Objection+Shin. (I did typo "Refa" as "rest" thanks to my tablet, apparently, but that's what I meant.)

Wanna go through that PoE (besides kirsche and Objection)?

[Grassbridger]

Oh also if you go back and check D1 votals I'm pretty sure there was a point where I could have switched from Weapons to Jalmont and put it at like 6-3 Jalmont or something.

Trying a reread now, should have solid content later.

[Grassbridger]

Yeah I was around at phase end when Jalmont was at L-2 (6) and Weapons was at 5, could have switched and made it 7-4 with an hour left in phase.

[BBM]

There's no reason to switch when Jalmont is already ahead in votes though if you're Weapons's buddy.

Pretty sure I've gone through most of this on N1, but:

Shinori is probably not mafia due to starting the Weapons wagon. Plus if he's scum it'll be obvious soon enough if he's still alive. Scum could WIFOM and try to leave him alive but that just leads to clears and/or a guilty. Boron is probably not mafia due to swinging the vote from 6-6 to 7-5 at a point when everyone online was voting Weapons and would have had to switch to Jalmont to secure a lynch. Refa is less likely to be scum because of the Paperblade reaction test. Kirsche was assigned Hated Townie, and Objection = cop clear. I think Kay's stubbornness in attacking Boron even after three people were voting her for it is more likely to be town, and her frustration also felt town.

That leaves you. One of the "not-mafias" (likely Shinori/Boron/Kirsche because my read on them is specifically not-mafia instead of town) is probably the SK and I'll worry about that after at least three mafia are down.

[Grassbridger]

Look, if I'm scum on my buddy's wagon, he's at L-3 with an hour to go, I'm not going to risk that--I'd switch to Jalmont, put him at L-1, he's the (almost) sure consolidation lynch instead of risking what ended up happening.

Another point worth considering: Scorri gave Refa the Ninja ability. I see that as meaning either Refa is scum, or Refa, Cam, myself, BBM, and Objection are all not-mafia. Basically, if Scorri had any scumbuddies left when she was picking, she would have either chosen to give them Ninja or she would have given someone else a different role, leaving Ninja for someone else to assign to her buddy. (My working theory is that mafia killed Jalmont due to his Scorri read and SK killed SB.)

[BBM]

That's scummy as fuck if Weapons ever does end up flipping though when it's not necessary.

Alternatively you could read it as the mafia giving Refa Ninja because they were going to kill the Tracker anyways.

[Grassbridger]

I don't think the reaction test gave as strong a reaction as you think--when I was reading through the thread at that point, I had figured out it was a fake by the time I got to Paper's "are you scum?" question, which was itself a pretty good sign.

I agree with BBM's POE for the most part, so I'm choosing my vote between him, Refa, and Kay (since that's where his reasoning is weakest). I think I'm going to go with Refa based on the scorri flip. I don't see myself voting for Shinori/Objection/kirsche/Boron unless I somehow come to believe that one of them is the SK.

##Vote: Refa

[Refa]

Say what you will about the reaction test, but you haven't given an explanation for why I'd kill Tracker if I was Mafia.

[BBM]

His explanation is that you didn't. The mafia killed Jalmont and the SK killed SB.

[Refa]

His explanation is that you didn't. The mafia killed Jalmont and the SK killed SB.

- Ninja, Ninja / Sneak - May target a player at night to make them also a ninja for a night

Wouldn't this mean that I could make the SK a ninja too?

[Refa]

Wait no, I'm an idiot...sorry, I thought SK meant Second Kill.

[Refa]

Another thought before I come up with a (hopefully more well thought out) defense for myself- Since Prims said there were no preassigned roles, doesn't that mean SK is one of the mystery roles; so either BBM or Boron?

[BBM]

SK is an alignment, not a role

[Prims]

A theoretical SK would be an alignment, not a role.

e: BBM sux

Edited September 10, 2013 by mafia sucks

[Sunwoo]

BBM and Prims already said it, but SK is an alignment and not a role. Think of it this way. In an all-vanilla game, the mafia can still kill, right? Just because the mafia are all goons, that doesn't mean they can't kill. It's the same for the SK. The kill is a factional ability, not a role.

So, uh, Grassbridger came up with a good point about scorri giving Refa ninja and calling him her strongest town read. But if scorri every flipped before Refa, then he would look highly suspicious and this would make him lynchable. I'm not prepared to vote Refa over this just yet. We don't know for certain who killed Jalmont and who killed SB, so it's still possible that scum killed SB to get rid of the tracker because they didn't have the ninja.

Something I noticed when I was looking back in the picks, Kay was the one that gave scorri jailkeeper because scorri was her biggest town read, but I don't believe there was a reason for the town read. I understand that town reads can just be plain off at times, but she, uh, sort of disappeared about halfway into D2 and I'm not sure who she thinks is scum besides me (and a mention on Refa).

My eyes kind of hurt right now, so anything more than this will have to wait.

[Refa]

SK is an alignment, not a role

Aha, makes sense.

Anyways, the thing that bothers me about Grassbridger's vote is that it's based on the fact that I'm the Ninja and a Mafia member got lynched, specifically the one who gave me Ninja in the first place. Therefore, I must be Mafia, because Ninja is a desirable position for Mafia to have. Regarding the death of the Tracker, that was not done by Mafia at all (because Mafia already has Ninja), but by the SK who is believed to exist in this game.

Thinking things through this single train of thought is misleading though. He's assuming that mafia inherently wanted ninja. However, being the ninja is pretty much painting a target over yourself, as it is a mafia role after all. The benefits to having ninja are greatly outweighed by the risks, considering they could just lynch SB day 1 and be done with it. In addition, by giving a non-Mafia the role, it would be easier for them to paint an easy lynch target later on, if that was necessary. Remember how scorri called me her strongest town read? I find that suspicious too, for entirely different reasons. As mafia's goal is to blend in, it would do better to put fellow members in the Null Read in case the person in question gets caught, their buddies don't instantly take the fall come next day. So by putting me on the top of her null reads, I think scorri just made it easier for me to be a simple lynch target.

I'll be short about the second assumption as Boron already went over it (she ninja'd me in a sense, lol), but by assuming that mafia wanted ninja, he could then make the claim that there would be no reason for them to kill the tracker and it must have been done by the SK. However, if mafia didn't want ninja (as I proved earlier, there were benefits to not taking it), then this whole premise falls apart. Then mafia would have all of the reason to kill SB on day 1.

So all of this, in addition to what BBM said at the beginning of this page, makes me a hella lot more suspicious of Grassbridger than I previously was. And really, I'd think a townie would pull more than just this to prove that I'm a scum. I have several arguments pages back, and quite a few of them are flawed. Seeing as a townie's job is to catch scum, they'd try to build at least a bigger case than what everyone can see with their eyes; whereas I believe that Grassbridger is trying to go for the easy lynch on me, which was set up well in advance.

##Vote: Grassbridger

Also just an aside, but the existence of SK hasn't been confirmed yet. Grassbridger, why are you so confident about this?

[Refa]

Okay, I guess we have a SK. Probably 11/3/1 or 10/4/1?

also what

[The Objection!]

^It's the alignments (11 town, 3 scum, 1 SK or 10 town 4 Scum, 1 SK)

I did empower Shinori, as per everyone's request. And the post where I last voted Shin was made on midnight, and I was very tired which would explain the lack of content. Maybe I'll reread in a bit if I feel like it....

[Refa]

^It's the alignments (11 town, 3 scum, 1 SK or 10 town 4 Scum, 1 SK)

I did empower Shinori, as per everyone's request. And the post where I last voted Shin was made on midnight, and I was very tired which would explain the lack of content. Maybe I'll reread in a bit if I feel like it....

Perhaps I missed something, but I don't believe anyone has called you out on lack of content recently?

[The Objection!]

Shinori asked why I was ignoring him, and by lack of content, I meant in the Shin vote post.

[Kay]

I'm more confident in the Objection townread than Shin because Objection can be construed as town for the same reasons as Shin, except it's far more likely because Objection would have talked to his team about his target because I told to empower Shinori. This means that him derping on this would have to have been a gambit someone on his team came up with, and I'm not really sure who itg would come up with that gambit. It's a pretty risky one since it relies on people going "Well he's probably just dumb" instead of stopping at "Wow you didn't listen must be scum" as people do or to go a step further like I am right now.

I'm not really sure who itg would come up with such a gambit, it sounds like something Prims or I would do, but I know I'm not mafia and Prims isn't playing.

Or he could have just ignored his scumteam and done something dumb at the last minute on his own, but yeah I don't really know Objection or how likely that is. Still, I wouldn't rule it out.

6. Kay - worth noting that she explicitly stated she had a townread on Weapons, but later implied she didn't think he was contributing, which is sort of weird. How was Refa and Grass contributing less than Weapons?

I had a nullread on Weapons except I figured scum were wagoning on him, so that was why it was a townread. Basically he was just doing not much except pressure votes in the same way he always does, so it wasn't contributing less than usual.

Null reads are okay when the game is still in the early stages. But by the end of D1 and at least by D2, if activity doesn't suck then all players should have at least said or done enough for you to have even a little read on them.

Also, I'd really rather not vote Shin, but it looks like you guys have decided to consolidate on him. Is there anyone else besides me you guys can depend on for a consolidation vote?

This looks really weird imo. Would you rather not vote for him, or would you rather not lynch him? Because making sure there's someone else who will vote for him instead seems weird. I guess holding onto your vote in case of a last minute switch makes some sense, but I'd be more inclined to look at it that way if you made more of an argument against it.

##Vote: Kay

Do something to make me unvote as you didn't yesterday. For what it's worth you and Scorri barely talked about each other and your opinions on each other. I suppose you were inactive for most of the day, but Scorri often criticised people's votes on you but never gave an opinion on you herself. This looks like she's trying to avoid giving a definitive opinion on you whilst defending you.

Found an interesting thing wrt Shinori: in #485 he says that Kay vs Boron looks like town in-fighting but then says that he is happy to lynch Kay not long after in #601. He also 180s on Boron in #615. Looks kinda paranoid and might be forcing a reason to set up a mislynch later, so I'd like an explanation for that. Also his result would be good.

Um, I said I had a townread on Scorri and explained why I gave her her role. I think I've talked about her more than I have about most people. Yeah okay my reads are dreadful this game, I've noticed, but you saying I haven't talked about her is just silly.

idk about scorri not talking about me, will have to read through her ISO later.

I find one thing interesting. Shinori would have to have gotten very lucky if he was scum, because he most likely wouldn't know whether he had been empowered or not. It's possible he decided to just try claiming a failure anyway, but again, that would be pretty lucky if it coincided with Objection not empowering him. So I figure either Shinori is town or both of them are scum.

##Vote: Boron admittedly kinda just sticking this here for now because I need to reread but I still don't like Boron. I mean she did a lot more townish stuff during D2 while I was gone but so did pretty much everyone,

[Zkirsche]

Um, I said I had a townread on Scorri and explained why I gave her her role. I think I've talked about her more than I have about most people.

Man I ctrl+f'd "scorri" and got 1 result which is why I thought that, but I did it again just now and got 11 so yeah you're fine in that regard. My point wrt Scorri mentioning you still stands though.

Remind me to reread GB if I forget but I don't have a lot of time to post right this minute.

[Grassbridger]

Wow, I am not impressed by Refa's reaction to my vote at all. In his response, he uses graspy reasoning, padded wording, and repetition to make it sound like his response to me is far stronger than it is, when what his case actually boils down to is "don't forget WIFOM, and also you didn't point out all the scummy things I did, and also OMGUS."

Aha, makes sense.

Anyways, the thing that bothers me about Grassbridger's vote is that it's based on the fact that I'm the Ninja and a Mafia member got lynched, specifically the one who gave me Ninja in the first place. Therefore, I must be Mafia, because Ninja is a desirable position for Mafia to have. Regarding the death of the Tracker, that was not done by Mafia at all (because Mafia already has Ninja), but by the SK who is believed to exist in this game.

First, I didn't say you must be Mafia, I said (or implied by my vote) that you are the most likely to be mafia out of yourself, Kay, and BBM. I also said that that if you are not scum BBM is also probably not scum, so it's really between you and Kay for my vote. And yes, I was assuming SK exists. Given the fact that we've had 2 kills each night, it's basically guaranteed at this point unless we have 2 mafias, which is far less likely.

Thinking things through this single train of thought is misleading though. He's assuming that mafia inherently wanted ninja. However, being the ninja is pretty much painting a target over yourself, as it is a mafia role after all. The benefits to having ninja are greatly outweighed by the risks, considering they could just lynch SB day 1 and be done with it. In addition, by giving a non-Mafia the role, it would be easier for them to paint an easy lynch target later on, if that was necessary. Remember how scorri called me her strongest town read? I find that suspicious too, for entirely different reasons. As mafia's goal is to blend in, it would do better to put fellow members in the Null Read in case the person in question gets caught, their buddies don't instantly take the fall come next day. So by putting me on the top of her null reads, I think scorri just made it easier for me to be a simple lynch target.

Of course there's an obvious WIFOM aspect to scorri's play: was she helping out a scumbuddy or was she painting a target? My argument was that she was helping out a scumbuddy.

I'll be short about the second assumption as Boron already went over it (she ninja'd me in a sense, lol), but by assuming that mafia wanted ninja, he could then make the claim that there would be no reason for them to kill the tracker and it must have been done by the SK. However, if mafia didn't want ninja (as I proved earlier, there were benefits to not taking it), then this whole premise falls apart. Then mafia would have all of the reason to kill SB on day 1.

So, the serial killer must have killed either Jalmont or SB. My theory that scum killed Jalmont was not actually based on the idea that scum wanted ninja therefore they didn't kill tracker, my theory was that scum killed Jalmont because scorri was scum and Jalmont would have used his free lynch on scorri. So, I had arrived at the conclusion that scum didn't kill the tracker BEFORE looking at the question of whether you were scum, Refa.

Also, using "proved" makes it sound like you actually proved something of value. All you said is that there are downsides as well as upsides to PAINTING YOUR SCUMBUDDY WITH A GIANT TARGET while giving them a useful role, which I think is kind of obvious.

So all of this, in addition to what BBM said at the beginning of this page, makes me a hella lot more suspicious of Grassbridger than I previously was. And really, I'd think a townie would pull more than just this to prove that I'm a scum. I have several arguments pages back, and quite a few of them are flawed. Seeing as a townie's job is to catch scum, they'd try to build at least a bigger case than what everyone can see with their eyes; whereas I believe that Grassbridger is trying to go for the easy lynch on me, which was set up well in advance.

##Vote: Grassbridger

Excuse me? You're finding me scummy because I didn't use enough arguments to attack you? That's preposterous, and you're grasping. There is absolutely no reason to believe that town would put in more effort than scum in my situation. I'm assuming that only 2 people will be serious lynch candidates today and I'll be among them (based on the tone of discussion), and so whether I'm town or scum, I want to stay alive today. What your actual argument consists of is "I find him scummy because he didn't find me scummy enough, when he could have found me more scummy." Now, yes, the first part of that is a reasonable argument if I'm putting down a weak vote early in the game, unprompted, etc., but on day 3, when there's a lot of PoE we can do and I'm voting between 3 people, and your point wasn't that I didn't have anything to go on but I was missing flaws in your posts (i.e. "I'm scummier than he's telling you), it's just silly.

Also just an aside, but the existence of SK hasn't been confirmed yet. Grassbridger, why are you so confident about this?

It's basically confirmed. Someone has to be doing the second kill.

[Grassbridger]

I had actually almost convinced myself that Refa was town and was going to vote for Kay or BBM based on PoE, but Refa's reaction post was so egregious that I'm back on him as scum.

In fairness though (and to let others convince me I'm wrong, if they think so), here's some counterpoints that suggest Refa is town.

1. During N1, Scorri waffled on her Jalmont scumread when asked to reconsider it. If she knew he was about to die, there was room to back much further off her scumread than she did. This makes me less sure that Jalmont was the mafia kill, but I just don't see anyone else killing Jalmont right away, so I still think it's more likely that Jalmont was the scum kill and SB was the SK kill.

2. According to BBM, Ninja wasn't the most powerful role left for scum at the time scorri was picking; Ascetic was. So, based on my previous reasoning about Ninja, there could be a scum among me/Cam/Objection/BBM, who scorri was hoping would end up with the Ascetic role. (Note that just because I ended up with the Ascetic role doesn't by itself make me scummy, because I was assigned the role by a flipped townie.) But of course this all depends on scum's determination of the relative value of roles.

3. If scum was going to kill the tracker N1 (which I still find unlikely, because then why did SK kill Jalmont?), then they wouldn't "need" Ninja, as has been pointed out several times, so scorri gives it to "her strongest townread", and if there is scum remaining scorri hopes Ascetic falls to them.

4. There might have been another point here but I forgot it.

Anyway, these points don't convince me because (a) Refa's reaction to my vote seemed scummy and (b) my (1) point could have led to scorri looking scummy when Jalmont flipped town for flip-flopping just beforehand. This way she didn't contradict herself/blatantly switch sides on him.