Kirby Mafia - Game Over

[The Objection!]

Time for some uberlist.

Town (or at least most likely to be town)

Objection! - Glad everyone agrees.

kirsche

Leaning Town

Shinori - This only applies to me, but I don't think he's scum because if he's scum he would've targetted a buddy and say it turned town. I suppose starting the weapons wagon is a plus too. Although the fact that he's still alive confuses me....

BBM - Reads and posts were reasonable, and I've found no reason to attack him.

Boron - Read BBM

Null

Grassbridger - I seriously don't know about what to think of him. I personally think that he made some valid points, but I would like to wait a bit more before placing my definite opinion on him.

Kay - like Grass, I'll wait a bit more on this (again).

Leaning Scum

Refa - The bit with the ninja is flawed:

Upside to giving a buddy ninja

- Tracker, one of towns most useful role is rendered useless

- May target another buddy at night making their action also untraceable (eg. Middleman or one of the mystery roles)

Downside, the 2 gets bonded (this could be turned around with a WIFOM argument thus making this 'downside' obsolete)

Upside to using the ninja to paint a target

- The scum gets bonded to the townie (no scum wants to get lynched, and even if they did get lynched, this could be made obsolete by a WIFOM theory)

- If town!you get lynched,the mafia who gave the ninja will get towncred (reasonable)

Downside, you lose ninja and the tracker has a chance of being doctored thus unkillable unless 'Doctor Shinori' is scum.(unlikely, at least for me)

Aside from that, the fact that you were absent for most of D2 and scum!scorri giving you ninja looks like more than a coincidence to me... And try posting something more on people NOT named Grassbridger other than "They're all leaning town except Kay".

Just a bit heads up:

Basically I find Grassbridger and Kay scummy, Objection as a null read, and everyone else leaning town. So yes, I would lynch Objection if neither Kay nor Grassbridger were acceptable wagons.

Being too trusting in a mafia game could cost you.

WIFOM happens when you're trying to figure out the REASON within someone's action or what action the player will take next.

##Unvote

##Vote Refa

Just to be fair with everyone though, I might not be THAT confirmed townie as if Shinori and me are scumbuddies (unlikely, but possible) he could lie about the results. So, if Shinori flips scum that would lift my clear and put me in a pretty bad position. Shinori also have an added insurance by being doctor and cop making people less likely to lynch him. But I'm really townie, and I also think Shinori is.

I realize the fact that Refa's my only scumread at the moment, but I think I've spent enough time on this post. I may post an updated read real soon depending on the direction this game will take next.

Prims: Can mafia nightkill and use their role on the same night? Also, who is the SK?

[Zkirsche]

Everytime I say to myself "I should ISO GB" I lose interest and end up not posting, so I'll just cover recent things about him.

The real basis of his argument against Refa is really just that Scorri gave him ninja and defended him

The real basis of his argument is supposedly using your PoE, which narrowed it down to you, Refa and Kay. I suppose he chose Refa over the other two because of the scorri flip but even you admitted that alone isn't really scummy.

Scorri buddied with you because you're scum" and then in other places he counters it by going one stage further in WIFOM. Mainly, he said at least once that "Scorri buddied with you because she knew others would think that her buddying with you made you town".

I don't see why it couldn't be "Scorri buddied with you because you're scum and she knew others would think that her buddying with you made you town."

The fact that Scorri never really interacted with him is a good catch, but Scorri never really interacted with Kay either so it's not enough to move my vote.

Kevin, regarding Scorri ignoring me, yeah, that's a thing, but she could just as easily figure I looked bad enough that I'd get lynched on my own, but defending me might tip the scales too much. idk.

Not sure what you mean by this. What do you mean by tipping the scales too much?

Currently Kay > Refa > GB >> BBM (BBM is here from a PoE perspective).

I probably need to rethink Refa because he's sort of here just for previous interactions and I haven't really digested any of his recent stuff.

[Grassbridger]

Rereading ISOs because I don't actually have time to read the whole thread:

Kay reported townreads on both Weapons and Scorri, then she has her snit with Boron. That whole thing seems more personal than anything else, but scum can have personal arguments too, so I'm revising my earlier view of that from towntell to null. On D2 she was "suspicious" of Refa (pre-reaction test). Later she says that she had a nullread on Weapons that she upped to a townread because she figured scum were wagoning on him, but earlier she said her townread on Weapons was due to his vote-unvote on Jalmont, which was "too conspicuous to be scummy". I don't know what to make of this evolving logic, but inconsistencies in read justifications always pique my interest.

One point against Shinori is that Scorri was trying to keep things limited to 2 wagons toward late day 1 when Paperblade suggested there were more valid wagons than just Jalmont and Weapons, and Shinori had 2 votes to 4 each on Jalmont and Weapons. I feel like scorri would have been more in favor of the "new Shinori wagon" idea if Shinori was town, but she'd never support adding a new scum wagon in that position.

BBM found Refa scummy N1, with a 6-point post at #313. I'm inclined to agree with a fair amount of it, but Refa's response to #3 is just not something scum would say... BBM himself voted Refa in a post where he didn't mention Refa at all otherwise. BBM seems to have dropped his read on Refa after Paperblade's reaction test, but I put not too much faith in that since it was a pretty obvious ploy.

My lynch priority for today:

Refa > Kay > BBM > Shinori >> Kirsche > Boron > Objection

Not moving off of Refa because even though I definitely have doubts, I really don't see anyone else with a stronger case. Maybe Kay.

[Shinori]

I'm fine with a lynch on Refa the fact that Scorri gave Refa Ninja and has flipped scum confuses me. Killing the tracker first though still has me confused but I'm assuming it was actually more to just confuse us and throw us off the course. I mean:

Scorri as scum could give town ninja which is basically a worthless role for town, so then killing tracker is fine cause they don't have a ninja however it then begs to ask why give town the ninja role if you were gonna kill the tracker first? It takes out most of the reasoning behind it, it's still a worthless role as town either way.

However Scorri could have given it to scum and then the scum chose to kill SB just to throw us off the case and make it look weird. Hrmmm. I don't know.

I don't have a vote down but at the moment I think I'd prefer:

Refa > GB > BBM > Kay > Boron > Kirsche

Something a long those lines.

##Vote: Refa

[Prims]

Day 3.1 - Votals

Refa (3): Grassbridger, Objection!, Shinori

Grassbridger (2): BBM, Refa

Boron (1): Kay

Kay (1): kirsche

Not Voting (1): Boron

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. You have about 25 hours and 20 minutes left in the day.

Yes, mafia can kill and act in the same night in this game.

[Refa]

Shinori - This only applies to me, but I don't think he's scum because if he's scum he would've targetted a buddy and say it turned town. I suppose starting the weapons wagon is a plus too. Although the fact that he's still alive confuses me....

What if he was SK?

Refa - The bit with the ninja is flawed:

Upside to giving a buddy ninja

- Tracker, one of towns most useful role is rendered useless

Or they could just lynch tracker Day 1...

- May target another buddy at night making their action also untraceable (eg. Middleman or one of the mystery roles)

Downside, the 2 gets bonded (this could be turned around with a WIFOM argument thus making this 'downside' obsolete)

There is only one known tracking role, why does it matter if they make someone else untraceable if the only tracking role is dead?

Upside to using the ninja to paint a target

- The scum gets bonded to the townie (no scum wants to get lynched, and even if they did get lynched, this could be made obsolete by a WIFOM theory)

If it was really made obsolete, then perhaps you could mention why I have 2 lynches on me based on solely this, hmm?

Downside, you lose ninja and the tracker has a chance of being doctored thus unkillable unless 'Doctor Shinori' is scum.(unlikely, at least for me)

Yes, tracker has a chance of being unkillable, but it's much more likely that Shinori would protect Paperblade or Jalmont, two much more important roles. Plus, even if tracker was alive, he'd have to get pretty lucky to discover a scum on day 1. Statistically speaking, the chances of actually getting screwed over by not having ninja are pretty low.

Aside from that, the fact that you were absent for most of D2 and scum!scorri giving you ninja looks like more than a coincidence to me... And try posting something more on people NOT named Grassbridger other than "They're all leaning town except Kay".

The same thing could be said for Grassbridger (when this post was made), but I don't see you complaining about him. :\

Scorri as scum could give town ninja which is basically a worthless role for town, so then killing tracker is fine cause they don't have a ninja however it then begs to ask why give town the ninja role if you were gonna kill the tracker first? It takes out most of the reasoning behind it, it's still a worthless role as town either way.

That's why she would give town Ninja, because it is worthless. I don't see what's so hard to understand about that specific point (whether or not she gave it to town is a different point altogether).

However Scorri could have given it to scum and then the scum chose to kill SB just to throw us off the case and make it look weird. Hrmmm. I don't know.

If I was scum, I really don't see why we'd want to kill SB first, especially considering he was one of the few people who said I was pro-town (or null read? I don't remember, it's been a while).

Anyways, considering I'm so close to a lynch, I just want to regard the recent votes on me (Objection, Shinori). They're both lynching me because I was given the Ninja role by mafia!scorri, but have not offered compelling evidence to show that scorri wouldn't give the role to a townie. To this people respond with WIFOM, which is more than a little unfair because then I have literally no way to defend myself despite the fact that there is not a guaranteed chance that I am scum.

So Objection and Shinori, I have a hypothetical question for you. If scorri did give a townie Ninja, how would you determine that was the case? Or would you always 100% of the time lynch the townie?

[Refa]

When I said lynch tracker previously, I meant kill.

[Sunwoo]

I'll admit straight out that I haven't actually been able to look closely at Refa and Grassbridger's actual content with one another because I've been busy and too easily distracted, will get on that before D3 ends. I'm not very fond of the basis of the Refa wagon, though.

scorri giving Refa ninja is a thing, but she continuously called him her strongest town read up until Paper blew her up. Scum were already one member down after Weapons was lynched D1, would scorri really want to tie herself to a scum buddy that strongly after Weapons died so early? If I recall correctly (will need to read earlier phases when not at work) Refa looked more likely to be lynched than scorri. If he was lynched and turned up town, this could have got scorri some towncred. But if Refa flipped scum or if scorri flipped before Refa, this looks absolutely horrible on them both. Why would scum tie themselves to one another like that?

Also, and this is a much lesser point because lolmeta (and I had Shin do this when we were scum in Trainwreck), but Refa's been asking a lot of obvious questions in-thread that he could just ask his scum buddies in private. Which makes me think that he's going at it alone. Again, just a small point but still something that makes me reluctant to lynch him.

Right now, I think I'd probably put my vote on Kay. I know that she thinks I'm scum, but I don't really know what she thinks of the rest of the game. Would like to know her reasons for putting Grass and BBM after me on her lynch priority, why she is not fond of kirsche, and just ... well, pretty much what she thinks of the game. Grass's tunneling on Refa seems pretty bad to me, but I will have to read his actual content to decide what I think about him. BBM had better not be the SK.

[Grassbridger]

I think there's a pretty good chance that the setup is 10/3/1, so in that hypothetical, Refa's got nobody let alive to ask in the mafia QT. Are you talking about before Scorri died? If not, it's not really a point in his favor. (And like you said, it's weak in the first place.)

[Zkirsche]

11/3/1 you mean. Not that it changes your overall point.

[BBM]

@Kirsche- I meant GB's basis for picking Refa over me and Kay after the PoE.

I feel like Boron's argument for why Refa isn't mafia is better than GB's argument for why he is. Nor can I particularly remember a time when Scorri's defended a scumbuddy as much as she defended Refa, even when they weren't down a man. Not even in MYLO/LYLO situations where lynching anybody else would mean a win.

[Grassbridger]

Taking a step back from my perceived OMGUSyness of Refa's vote on me, I guess his part in our argument didn't actually look that scummy... I can't really justify a vote on him based solely on that, and I conceded that the scorri interaction is a null tell at best.

I'd switch my vote to Kay at this point, except Kay announced townreads on both scorri and Weapons, so if we're arguing that scum avoid tying themselves together in that way (which seems to be the prevailing view on the Refa/scorri interaction), then it seems unlikely that Kay would publicly townread (and announce those townreads without too much provocation) not one buddy, but two.

I could really go either way between Refa and Kay right now.

[Sunwoo]

All right, I think it's time for me to commit to a vote.

##Vote: Kay

I went back and reread her ISO, still not liking her content. I mean, she hasn't talked very much about anyone besides me (says that she wouldn't mind lynching Grass or BBM, not fond of kirsche, but doesn't give reasons why and I can't find anything in her previous posts that tells me why). Her vote is still on me, but she hasn't tried to push a lynch on me this entire phase (nor has she really been around ...)

At this point in the game, I'm not very happy that the only scum read she's explained is on me. Where did her Refa suspicion, which was there as late as D2, go? Would she prefer to lynch Grass over Refa because she finds Refa more believable or Grass's argument worse? Where did the BBM suspicion come from? Like ... I'm not following her reads and this doesn't sit well with me.

[Prims]

Day 3.2 - Votals

Refa (3): Grassbridger, Objection!, Shinori

Grassbridger (2): BBM, Refa

Kay (2): kirsche, Boron

Boron (1): Kay

Not Voting (0): None!

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. You have about 15 hours and 40 minutes left in the day.

[BBM]

Ugh I didn't realize that phase ended today- I thought it ended tomorrow. I'll probably be able to post sometime before phase end, but I doubt I'll be there for phase end itself.

[BBM]

I'm not up for lynching anyone who's being voted right now except Grassbridger. Grass brings up a good point about why Kay is also not that likely to be scum- she's been defending too many of her buddies and I don't think that it's Kay's style to buddy that hardcore. However, the way in which he brings this point up is sort of scummy because he takes a step back from Refa's lynch while still voting him anyways. He's like "I guess Refa is not actually that scummy but Kay is still townier so Refa is still scum".

[Grassbridger]

If I was scum, why on earth would I argue against both legitimate counterwagons to myself at once... Anyway,

##Unvote

##Vote: Kay

I see more scum intent/buddying in her defense of Weapons than Scorri's defense of Refa. Kay outed her townread on Weapons when he was a legitimate wagon, trying not to get him lynched. Same can't be said for scorri.

[The Objection!]

I think I'd go for Grass, right now. Attempting to defend Kay, then switching to trying to lynch her on the next post. Kind of wishy-washy IMO.

##Unvote

##Vote: Grassbridger

@Refa

Shinori may be an SK but there's no way to prove it. I just think that he's at least not a mafia.

I brought up the point that tracker might be doctored, however unlikely you may think it is, it's still a possibility. And I don't think that the votes on you are solely based on scorri, it just takes away your perceived townie-ness. Which you only got from a reaction test btw.

As for the one about grass, I admit that I overlooked grass' lack of reads, but that's because I agree with his logic on multiple points (at least at that moment) and I find yours flawed, which is why I spent more time rereading your posts.

I would also like to admit that my vote on you was out of lack of a better target, but certain other player is catching my attention right now.

[Zkirsche]

GB's wagon hop is really weak, it reads as "welp I'm not getting Refa lynched let's try this instead". Consolidation is good and all but it's not like Refa wasn't a leading wagon so you can't use that excuse.

Kay has done nothing to alleviate my concerns of her though and I agree with the logic behind GB's vote so I'd rather not switch.

[Grassbridger]

I think I'd go for Grass, right now. Attempting to defend Kay, then switching to trying to lynch her on the next post. Kind of wishy-washy IMO.

I wasn't attempting to defend Kay, I was simply saying that arguments people are using to defend Refa also could be used to defend Kay. But I think they work better for Refa, who has less scummy things anyway.

[Grassbridger]

FWIW my last day or 2 of posts--basically everything after things between me and Refa calmed down--shows a allow shift from Refa to Kay without much outside prompting on Kay,I see why my vote switch by itself could look bad but that's taking it out of context where I've moved from unwilling to lynch Kay to voting for her, through supported arguments, without anyone else saying too much about her. So yeah I'm not just flailing.

[Shinori]

We still have plenty of time for discussion so I don't need to hammer right away.

[Shinori]

I'm on the fence about lynching Kay because I think she is most likely the only reason I am still alive. The middleman stops two people from targeting each other at night and that effectively makes it like a doc. I think if Kay was scum then I would be dead.

I would swap for consolidation if needed but I'd much prefer someone else.

[Prims]

Day 3.3 - Votals

Grassbridger (3): BBM, Refa, Objection!

Kay (3): kirsche, Boron, Grassbridger

Boron (1): Kay

Refa (1): Shinori

Not Voting (0): None!

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. You have 2 hours left in the day.

[Grassbridger]

It's a pretty weak doc, Shinori, given that Kay has to guess who is performing kill for the scum, or who the SK is. Also, she had townreads on 2 scum members, so she wouldn't have blocked them from killing you (also Weapons was killed before he could have made a kill but w/e).

Also, it takes 5 to hammer--Kay and I are at 3 each, with Kay on Boron and you on Refa.