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Fakeclaim Mafia - Game Over


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I'm headin home now and I'll backtrack when I get there.

For weapons:

Paperblade n1 (fail)

Eclipse n2 (success, inno, no visitors)

Psych n3 (fail)

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Copped Marth (Day 1)

Idled due to role specs (Day 2)

Copped Euklyd, got redirected to Elieson (Day 3)

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N1: Drove Shinori and Polydeuces. Was redirected from Shinori to Refa, so drove Refa and Polydeuces.

N2: Idled

N3: Drove eclipse and Weapons. Was redirected from eclipse to Refa, so drove Refa and Weapons.

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Weapons: Going off of Grass's role PM, you should have examples in your role PM of where Prims claimed day vig. Could you give us those examples?

There are none. There is flavor about how Prims uses it like every other game as an extended joke and how he should get better.

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I can't really defend myself against "oh Paperblade could have coached him."

Can you get enough associative reads or other info by my death to justify killing me now, and not with a lynch?

If not, it would be better to lynch me at the end of the day and shoot someone you could get reads from, so that we could use those reads today.

I'm trying to find a great reason to keep me around, but there's nothing that would convince anyone but myself, and I don't need convincing. I have no PR, so it's not a huge loss if I die, but you won't gain much either.

Well I'm gonna focus on productive things for now.

Can we assume that Marth is basically confirmed town? (or a godfather) Since if Refa is scum then it's unlikely that Marth is also scum, since there's only so many scum, and if Refa is town then he wouldn't lie.

...

Actually I'm just gonna to lay out my assumptions/deductions below. Please correct any errors in my thinking if I made any.

First of all I'm assuming there's only 1 mafia and 1 SK left.

  • So Marth is basically confirmed town, no matter how much I dislike his role for possibly messing up investigations/protections. Could theoretically be Godfather, but I have no idea if we're playing with a Godfather.
  • PEDIT#1: If Refa is SK then the above doesn't hold water.
  • Refa isn't cleared, but worst case scenario is he gets NK'd, medium case (he survives and investigates townies) we get more confirmed town, best case we get a confirmed scum. I would support lynching him no earlier than tomorrow, basically no matter what, unless something really - extremely - compelling happens, so that he can continue investigating.
  • Psych is not cleared because Elieson could be SK, but as soon as Elieson dies he might be super-confirmed town (no chance to fake). Psych, you're JOAT, right? What powers do you have left?
  • Elieson is confirmed neutral, and is either SK or telling the truth and we'd be able to see that if/when he dies. If/when he dies he's either SK, or Psych is super-confirmed.
  • I am not cleared, and won't be easily, because nobody can investigate me without dying, PGO is easy to fake, and apparently the bullshit reaction test was completely pointless. It's not a huge blow to the town if I die.
  • PEDIT#2: Actually Refa if you're still suspicious of me and still want to investigate me, go ahead - this would clear me, and clear Marth as well, assuming no Godfather.
  • Scorri isn't cleared, and "oh I fucked up I basically have no role now" would be easy to fake. Also not a huge blow if she dies.
  • Sangyul isn't cleared, and redirect pisses me off, especially when we have ONE claimed redirecting role, and she claims to have gotten redirected both times.
  • Weapons isn't cleared, but is a claimed dayvig.

Am I missing anyone, or anything?

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I can't really defend myself against "oh Paperblade could have coached him."

You could say "Paperblade could have coached YOU, what now"

  • So Marth is basically confirmed town, no matter how much I dislike his role for possibly messing up investigations/protections. Could theoretically be Godfather, but I have no idea if we're playing with a Godfather.
  • PEDIT#1: If Refa is SK then the above doesn't hold water.

I'm not sure why the above wouldn't hold water if I was SK. Care to elaborate?

  • Refa isn't cleared, but worst case scenario is he gets NK'd, medium case (he survives and investigates townies) we get more confirmed town, best case we get a confirmed scum. I would support lynching him no earlier than tomorrow, basically no matter what, unless something really - extremely - compelling happens, so that he can continue investigating.

As I've said before, I can only cop every other night; since I copped on N1 (and N3), I will not be able to cop again until N5.

Also, you have an unusual lack of leaning towns this late in the phase. I know that not everyone can be cleared, but surely you have some thoughts as to who you think is town, who you think is scummy, etc.?

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Sangyul isn't cleared, and redirect pisses me off, especially when we have ONE claimed redirecting role, and she claims to have gotten redirected both times.

There's no one more pissed off with the redirect than I am, since I could've saved two people had I not been redirected. And since this redirector has used their ability TWICE to interfere with the night kill being saved, they're not going to claim that they're the redirector, duh.

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I'm not sure why the above wouldn't hold water if I was SK. Care to elaborate?

If you were SK your "result" would be essentially random, and we can't PoE Marth because there's a scum unaccounted for.

As I've said before, I can only cop every other night; since I copped on N1 (and N3), I will not be able to cop again until N5.

Derp.

Also, you have an unusual lack of leaning towns this late in the phase. I know that not everyone can be cleared, but surely you have some thoughts as to who you think is town, who you think is scummy, etc.?

I'm trying to establish facts right now. You'll notice I'm not cleared either, and I'm probably the hardest to clear since people probably aren't really interested in investigating me, especially since I don't have a PR, so there's relatively little harm in lynching me.

At the moment, though?

Leaning town on you (Refa) and Psych, conflicted about Sangyul, would not be surprised if scorri were scum. Strongly leaning town on Marth, FMPoV, I'm obviously town. I'm still annoyed by Weapon's bullshit, so I'm not sure what to think.

Would be fine with lynching Elieson tomorrow, and you could maybe twist my arm for today. Maybe.

Could be convinced to lynch you (Refa) tomorrow as well, for that matter, and pretty easily - not because I think you're scum, but because it would clear your results, and I think that could be incredibly helpful.

Could be convinced to lynch scorri today, but investigation would be *nice*.

Would normally be just fine with Weapons dying because of his playstyle alone, but dat dayvig.

Also not sure if there's a possibility of Weapons' offer to shoot me is clouding my thoughts there (I don't think it is, but I'm not positive).

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There's no one more pissed off with the redirect than I am, since I could've saved two people had I not been redirected. And since this redirector has used their ability TWICE to interfere with the night kill being saved, they're not going to claim that they're the redirector, duh.

Yeah, so it's basically null. I've been getting townvibes from you all game, and I can't pin down why, which is sorta making me suspicious, but that's my problem.

And yes, of course you would be the most pissed off.

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=/

To be fair, I think he was commenting more on your role being redirected pissing you off rather than a jab at you. But I dunno.

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It was not a jab. I apologize if it was taken that way, it was not my intent. I can see how it could be interpreted that way now that it's been pointed out, though.

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Regardless, I'm not a fan of Euklyd saying that he'd lynch Refa to verify his results, not because he thinks he's scum. You're not supposed to lynch people you don't think are scum.

If scorri is scum, then there must have been some mad bussing going on between her, Paperblade, and SB. This seems rather complicated, honestly. I mean, if there's an SK then I suppose she could still be the SK but I'm not sure if I can be convinced that she, Paperblade, and SB are all of the same alignment.

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Do you think I like not having a great idea of who's scum? If I can't figure out a scumread, then I'd like to get as much information as possible, and confirm it, so at the very least we can PoE a scum.

I don't have a great idea of how much time we have left assuming an SK and a scum, so maybe I'm miscalculating, but we have a few days and not much more, right?

If scorri is scum, then there must have been some mad bussing going on between her, Paperblade, and SB. This seems rather complicated, honestly. I mean, if there's an SK then I suppose she could still be the SK but I'm not sure if I can be convinced that she, Paperblade, and SB are all of the same alignment.

The whole counterwagon thing seems like it'd be a great way to ensure that at least one scum makes it into the lategame with minimal suspicion.

Paperblade and Manix had already staged a fight, I see no reason why they wouldn't try to clear someone else with similar methods. I mean, it's been working pretty well so far; scorri has coasted pretty well on that and the Backup claim. Granted, the Backup claim is consistent and does make sense.

Anyways, if you don't agree, then suggest something better. Even if it's me. I would love to hear a great argument that can convince me that Person X ought to be lynched (although I probably won't agree if Person X is me).

I've put out my thoughts, and probably more openly and transparently than basically anything I've said all game - with the possible exception of my reaction to Weapons' reaction test - and will continue to do so until I'm either lynched or killed, or we win.

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My vote is on Weapons, I'd like to lynch him today. That is my suggestion.

And there will be many times when we don't have a great idea of who's scum. Sometimes, you don't know who to suspect or trust other than yourself. But lynching someone you don't think is scum, especially at a point in the game where we're cutting it close, isn't a good idea. Since *YLO isn't even announced in this game, we won't know how close we are to screwing ourselves over until our final mislynch, I'd rather not lynch who I don't feel strongly about.

Right now, I'm starting to think that the last anti-town people may be between Weapons (reasons given), Elieson (confirmed third with an unaccounted kill around), and scorri (although I think she's likelier to be an SK than scum). I'm going to have to reread some of the dead players' interactions, to see what living people they suspected the most. Maybe that'll give me a better idea of who to go after.

(By the way, sorry about the whole "=/" thing, I wasn't sure how else to respond to your comment.)

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Euklyd who cares about Weapons claiming dayvig? Psych already claimed a vig shot on kirsche, town having two vig shots would be messy when there's an SK AND scum around. That and he would've vigged one of his scumreads by now knowing weapons.

I agree with you boron on who are likely to flip anti-town.

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