Etrian Odyssey 2 Mafia - Game Over

[charlie_]

also i'm pretty much uninterested in bearclaw getting lynched due to boron's pre-subbing content and bear's not being too bad itself

[Green Poet]

Well, it doesn't look like Wen's wagon is going to fall apart any time soon. There are a a fair number of us who don't want him lynched, and I can see this happening if we collectively use our votes on either Eury or bear.

[Shinori]

My ability to stay null is amazing and planned!

[Shinori]

Well I'm not really planning on lynching Eury at the moment and I don't feel like lynching Wen either. And I don't want to lynch GP.

So I don't really plan on voting for any of those three at the moment. I'd be willing to vote for SB, BBM, or Bearclaw I guess.

[Eurykins]

...Okay, so was quoting posts, but then the orders got a bit mixed up. Whoops.

also i hate to tell you this but like

the tracker is kind of dead

Sure, the tracker's dead. But from what just was said straight out in the beginning of D2, roleblockers, followers, and watchers all came out into play (along with driver). Quite a few observation roles coming out, and that information is solely coming out from those who are actively posting in the thread. There's probably a lot of N1 content that we're missing, due to others not posting or otherwise forwardly contributing to the game. (It calls into question who's lurking with what means of abilities/resources, if any.)

eclipse had bad content d1 and eurykins basically posted a massive wall of nullreads and then half her scumreads were basically based on gut or inactivity and the kopf wagon doesn't really make me feel good at all.

Yes, I have run off of gut reads before, and I generally do. Nothing new? o.O?

-Eurykins, I don't get why you have inactives high on your lynch priority list yet are complaining that GP had inactives high on her lynch priority list D1.

1. It was Kop's actions along with the inactivity/responses that got him onto my priority list to begin with.

2. Poet doesn't fall under the 'inactives' and still retained a high spot on my list.

3. GP was solely bent on Eclipse the entirety of D1 and otherwise seemed exclusive to her. There was no real attempt to shift to anyone else, nor was there any means to put forth any effort into reading into anyone else, and that is what I had an issue with. Tagged onto an inactive player, and did nothing about the active ones. Not exactly the type of progress that town would want to contribute to scum-hunting.

Right now, the case on Eury's looking far more solid to me than the case on Kopf. Until someone CCs vig, which isn't likely whether or not they exist, or Kopf fails to kill a reasonably scummy target D2, there's nothing concrete that points to him as scum.

If Kopf was SK, he should've just not said anything and let everyone think Fleur was the NK. I don't understand why he'd draw attention to himself at all, or even vote RD.

Hold on... even if someone claimed to have tracked Kopf, and he claimed vig after that, no one could prove that he's not vig. And besides, vig has every reason not to claim until necessary.

However, I do agree that Kopf should give his reads. After an ISO of him, it seems that he's only offered thoughts about RD and eclipse, neither of whom are very relevant right now.

1. If he was SK, and probably saw/realized the amounts of roles coming out into the light (as listed above- driver [who could ultimately influence any sort of role via redirect], follower, etc.), it wouldn't be out of the question to claim a vig role if there was the risk of being caught/seen by someone. After all, it's like a Miller role claiming miller after someone scanned them and drew up "Mafia/scum". Seems very convenient.

2. You're right, which means that he clearly was getting squirmish about something. Why would he feel the need to claim unless he thought he would get in trouble/suffer otherwise? Why isn't he hiding himself, like one would expect him to?

Eury's post spends a lot of time saying stuff that everyone already knows. I don't think that a single person here has ever tried to argue that Wen has made good posts. Neither I nor anybody else needs to read 15 lines about why Wen's posts suck. Why would a SK or mafia claim vig if they weren't? When the real vig could CC them or shoot them at night?

1. Yeah, for one, that was me half-clarifying to myself what the heck was going on, along with my thoughts.

2. That is the question, isn't it? Though, that action in itself beckons the risk/gain aspect of why the claim was even made. We're not even sure if the vig shot is legit. The logic itself beckons the risk of a town-aligned Vig (as opposed to scum) floating around who could nullify Kop if that were the case, but then again, look at the amount of inactives we have. If it's counterclaims or something that people are gunning for, we're going to have a damn hard time with that, no matter how hard we try. The fact of the matter is, there's a lot of room for doubt and variables when at least 4 or 5 of the players aren't saying much at all (if anything); so his actions, as nonsensical as they seem, may as well have been out of taking one hell of a gamble.

And as a side note: Those of you who're casting suspicion on me based on Eclipse's activities/few posts ought to find a new path, imo. I wasn't even aware of her content when I was subbing in (and obviously nor her role), and if I recall, her content was only around early D1- mid D1 at the latest. If you're going to have any sort of basis of arguments against me, then at least base it off of what I myself am typing, not before I was subbed in. Because there is honestly nothing I can do about what she did/didn't do, nor do I care for having to constantly attempt to remedy or justify anything she may have said or did.

[Not meant to sound rude or anything, but it does get tiresome to keep on being equated to 'those few posts in D1' that I ultimately had no control over, nor did I dictate, thus rendering me unable to actually respond to any of those assertions.]

[Shin]

Refa, I'm more inclined to think Wen is probably scum. Unless one of the blocked people were the scumkill, or the same target were picked for both looking town and scummy all in one, it just seems like too much of a stretch. I don't see why he'd admit having a killing role so early on, surely that would make him scum target number one? Either he has a death wish or he's scum and can't possibly be killed. I guess the same applies to him being an ITP, it seems incredibly unlikely he'd reveal his ability this early.

Green's role seems to make sense, especially considering the chain of events. Green -> Refa -> BBM all seem to add up, but the possibility of a Refa/Green duo still kinda persists from D1, albeit not quite as strongly. I'm tempted to have a reread of scorri and Eury independently. Eury's waffling a lot, and seems intently focused on Green, who admittedly hasn't been great but her case seems oddly longwinded. scorri seems to keep slipping under my radar, but I'm not seeing a terrible amount of non-rolespec.

Refa, can I ask what your scumread on DA BEAR is based on? It's not that I'm disagreeing that he doesn't look great but you kinda promised some ISO magic. Also, that guy in your avatar is totally Horace.

[Shinori]

I really see no reason to lynch our one and only claimed vig.

[MRDRHAWK]

I'm gonna note this now: I don't want to lynch Bear. At all.

I'll vote Eury for consolidation if needed, and I'd probably rather lynch Kopf on the grounds like vig can be an easy fakeclaim to cover his own ass for having taken the mafia NK last night. Plus, I'm not liking his content as a whole.

[Da Bear]

Guys can we all just lynch Eli and thank me later?

So I naturally don't want to lynch myself and I'm not seeing the kopf case (read his iso and I don't get the problem+would rather not lynch vig claim). I'll be looking into Eury now to see what I think of him.

[BBM]

You've said nothing about Elie other than that my case is good. And though I find Elie suspicious, he probably wouldn't make a good lynch atm, sadly. Too inactive. And while you say this, your vote is still on GP... despite what multiple people have said as to why he's most likely town.

[Shinori]

There is no Eury case. I honestly don't see a Kopj case either. Both of them are really poor decisions for a lynch.

If we are gonna lynch someone for poor decisions let's at least pick someone that has talked a lot more and has more associative reads for more information.

[BBM]

The case on Eury is that she subbed into a suspicious slot and her reads are all really null except for the really easy one on Wen that just tries to sweep the Vig claim under the carpet.

Vig claims are bad fakes to give to mafia because they can't actually be proven (unless they really do have an extra kill).

Shinori, you can't go like "didn't like SB's d1 posts; vote: sb" and then not talk about SB's D2 at all. In fact Shinori's entire D2 is lining up lynches between me and SB.

Also I missed Refa's response to me. Whoops. Well, Wen's reason for shooting Fleur wasn't that her posts were suspicious- he just thought she was crumbing Vig.

tbh I don't really like Poly's posts but I'm inclined to think that him and GP are both town because of rolestuff- I don't really think that scumbuddies would tie claims together like that, and it's unlikely that only one of them is scum.

[Shinori]

Because I think it's more likely that the kill was blocked than the kill being docced or being the same target as our claimed vig.

I mean if you want: Let's lynch Kopj then if he flips vig we wasted a day lynching our claimed vig and we learn nothing.

Or sure let's lynch Eury and if she flips town then what do we learn? Oh shit someone without many associative reads is dead and we don't get much information.

Also if anyone is still voting GP they should unvote GP IMO.

Can we get updated votals?

[Grace]

Votals The Second:

Kopfjager (3): Shin, Flan, Eurykins

bearclaw (2): Green Poet, Refa

Green Poet (1): bearclaw

Elieson (1): BBM

Eurykins (1): SB

SB (1): Shinori

Not Voting (5): (Xinnidy), kirsche, Kopfjager, scorri, Elieson

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to hammer, 4 to lynch at deadline. There are 17 hours and 10 minutes left in the phase.

[Shinori]

Will vote bear > Kop but that's honestly because I think Kop is town at the moment.

[Refa]

Refa, can I ask what your scumread on DA BEAR is based on? It's not that I'm disagreeing that he doesn't look great but you kinda promised some ISO magic. Also, that guy in your avatar is totally Horace.

Sorry about that, dude. I had to go watch a movie...featuring Lego dudes...it had Batman! Rereading the thread right now, postbusters coming out soon or turbolynch me (actually don't, what if I fall asleep??).

It was a good game!

[Grace]

Baldrick subs in for Xinnidy, effective immediately.

[Shinori]

Baldie-poo I love you. Vote SB with me.

[Baldrick]

You're the boss

##Vote: SB

[charlie_]

Baldrick pls I promise you can trust me this time! D:

[Baldrick]

##unvote

My reads, such that they are, are only updated to early on D2.

Don't like:

bear, I will expand as to why I don't like his GP vote later (even more so since he's still voting). Reading on D1, the interaction between Boron and Fleur didn't feel like town infighting to me (both were doing their share of word-twisting).

Refa, his reaction to the claimed actions on ED2 (re: SB/BBM in particular) felt worse than banned!poly and LR!shinori. Expand and reread needed.

More later. Going out.

[charlie_]

Well my buddy would never claim the hook so why would I out it?

Honestly I think Fleur was just the mafia nightkill tbh.

Shinori, if I'm scum why would I do this?

[Shinori]

Probably because generally no one ever goes: Oh hey let's just lynch the guy who was roleblocked because he was probably scum who got lynched.

Generally people find it as such a miniscule chance early on in the beginning of games that they shrug it off.

Generally if a no kill night happens there is a handful of things that can stop it:

Roleblock

Doc

BPV

Scum just chose to not kill

Probably some other things but whatever.

And because of this handful of stuff generally people don't care about it and don't put much effort into thinking about it. I kinda went with my gut and pushed you for it and you reacted in a way that I didn't quite like. Like even now with me being the only person voting you over this in all honesty it would be best for you to ignore me and worry about other targets(Unless you think I'm scum) Because obviously I'm the only person who has an interest really in this possibility, yet you seem really worried about that fact which I find interesting.

This should answer as to why you would out the hook: Because no one generally EVER get's lynched after something like that happens. "Oh a no kill happened." "I got blocked and redirected to myself wat." "We can't be sure if he was scum being sent to kill or not, let's not lynch him."

[Grace]

Less than 12 hours left. Votals have not changed. A reminder that you need 4 votes to lynch, otherwise the game will end in universal loss.

[Shin]

OK, we're probably going to need to consolidate at some point, whether it be a lynch or a no lynch. I'm still incredibly suspicious of Wen, even under fire, he's quite happy to sit things out and offer nothing to the discussion. However, for the sake not everyone not losing, I could probably be convinced to vote DA BEAR or SB/BBM, although the later two would be mostly derived from role spec.