Tyne-Wear Mafia - Where Are They Now? Special Bonus 2016 Update

[Prims]

the problem is that I don't have the time to pour into making strong cases

[Blitz]

basically, I am saying town should keep an eye out on Prims in case I end up dead (I am still thinking he is very likely scum and my chances of being dead are very high, even if by a slim chance I am wrong about Marth) and people should also go after FFM if Marth turns up scum (which should be the case)

also, another reason why I went after Marth is cause I can imagine Prims sending Marth for the night kill. (Marth is the one of the guys who no one was scum reading plus likely a goon and chances of being hit with a role was lowest for him)

[charlie_]

Blitz, Prims is town on associative reads: Marth tried to smear him when he cased Paper and Prims was one of the people who pushed Paper before he died. Also why would scum!Prims not want people to follow him? Scum need to work to generate mislynches themselves, rather than just hoping that all the townies work together to murder each other.

I'm also unsure if Marth would be that blatant about ignoring his scumbuddy? Like, the most questionable part about it imo is that FFM could've gotten angrier at it but didn't, but that's not really a solid tell.

[Blitz]

did you really think a Paper turbo would have taken place when Randa had like 8 votes on him less than 24hrs left in phase? (so, it just basically gave town cred to Prims)

and scum would want to smear their buddies when they get the chance to and knows there is no way for the smeared scum to be lynched anytime soon. Basing on that read of Marth, I would say chances of one of Weapons or Prims to be scum increases greatly and much more inclined to think Prims is the scum one.

My point about Prims is that he would want to look like a townie by going after scum, but at the same time, not get scum lynched while getting away with getting mislynces. He went after Blade when he knew that Blade cannot be turbo'd. He went after FFM with a very weak case (and I am hard scum reading FFM, excepting I cannot build a case on him) so that he wouldn't be followed while getting town cred for going after him. Then he defended Randa, but didn't do so in a strong enough way where people would follow him, which gave him further town cred. The way I see it, Prims is playing with a scum thought process based on above.

The way I read Marth + FFM was something like

Marth says, "Hey guys, I have no reason to out reads on FFM, but I will do so anyways, I think he is too hard to read, so I will ignore him" (can you show me someone who asked for reads on FFM, to which Marth might have answered to, cause I don't see anyone)

FFM says, "yeah keep at it"

[charlie_]

People were starting to lose interest in the Randa lynch and I'm pretty sure that we could've convince enough people for the sake of a lynch considering nobody had expressed a townread of Paper at all? I wouldn't say it was likely but it definitely wasn't impossible for a last minute wagon to spring up, especially if Randa or one of the other wagons ended up claiming a PR.

The way Marth smeared Prims and Weapons but simultaneously attacked Paper makes me think the former two are town, since he was keeping his options open to bus Paper while at the same time discrediting the attackers. Plus Prims was flying under the radar at the time, so why would scum!Marth bring his buddy to attention like that when he could've just said "I disagree with these cases" rather than pushing the attackers as well?

And the way I read FFM's side of the interactions was more like "screw you" than anything else.

[Blitz]

nah, FFM didn't say screw you, he wanted people to think he said screw you (if he said screw you, there should have been something around it)

I highly doubt the Randa wagon could have been avoided at all and iirc, Randa claimed vanilla before that.

and about Marth, why not? (he gains double towncred by calling scum on Blade and Prims/Weapons)

and also, his main wagon was me, with me hardly having much other people wanting to lynch me, he could have spent the day well by just keeping his vote on me and saying other people are weird and move his vote to someone else before deadline

[Refa]

ISO'd Paperblade, here's what I got:

-So the most obvious thing is that Paperblade was basically tunneling in on SB for most of the day. Considering SB did have a sizeable wagon on him going into the end of the day and Paperblade made no effort to change his vote or case another one of the leading wagons, I'm PRETTY SURE that they aren't scumfriends (SB's name lied to me : <).

-Don't really agree with SB about Cam though. Say SB got lynched on Day 1 (which was a possibility when Paperblade was casing Cam) and flipped town. Considering the only other person he seriously cased was Cam, it's pretty obvious where his vote would be going afterwords and bussing from the start of Day 2 just seems like kind of a dumb move. It's not as strong as my read on SB, but I still got a minor townread on Cam out of this.

-Also his interactions with Shin seem kind of weird seeing as how he just questioned Shin on one of his points but never had a read on Shin beforehand (keep in mind this was when Shin was one of the 3 big wagons). On the other hand, if they were scumbuddies I feel like he wouldn't call the Randa wagon dumb because that would make people more likely to jump on Shin? IDEK anymore.

[Refa]

Blitz, a few...issues (not sure if that's the right word to use here) regarding your arguments before I inevitably fall asleep.

I agree that Marth's associations with FFM make FFM look worse by comparison, but what do you think of FFM's general play overall? Like he's done multiple things that make me think that he's not scum overall (actually I forgot what he did on D1 something to do with his scumread on Rapier for his jokeclaim or something and today with his skepticism about your claim, which seems more likely to come from town than scum considering well, scum would already know whether or not you were telling the truth) and honestly not all town is going to have great interactions with scum (like how in Conspiracy where Prims' interactions were far better than Shin's) so I'd prefer not to scumread someone based on that alone.

Don't really get your scumread on SB because it's based off of two levels of associative read which is kind of eh? Also what do you think about his interactions with Paperblade, because I'm PRETTY SURE those aren't scum/scum interactions.

You do bring up some good points regarding Prims (in particular him being less of a driving force and making the right cases for the wrong reasons) though, I should probably reread him even though I had a gut townread on him early on.

REFA OUT

[charlie_]

What stops Paper from just casing someone else? Even if he went to bus Cam, there was very little support for it and it's unlikely it would lead anywhere.

Also Paper calling out the Randa wagon just looked like he was trying to make himself look better imo: scum!Paper has trouble bullshitting cases on people he knows are town, so defending them like that is way easier for him to be genuine. I'm not saying this makes Shin scum but I don't agree with your line of thought there.

[CT075]

it appears that i'll be travelling AGAIN today (rage) and i didn't find out about this until yesterday night when i'd already passed out so i won't be around for today other than phoneposting (soz)

i'll see if i can't get any kind of actual post out in the three hours before i leave

[CT075]

also is marth at L-1 yet wtf

[Bluedoom]

Oh uh... what?

Yeah I targeted BBM but I was redirected to him and I most certainly wasn't responsible for the kill. Claiming JoaT btw, and I used my rolecop shot last night.

Also Blitz I thought your Weapons vote was forced because I gelt like you couldn't make up any better case so you went for the easier one to make it look like you had content. ofc that read's out of the window, because you're town based off of the tracker claim.

anyway, ##Vote: Belisarius for the awful Randa vote and Randa focus from last phase.

Also can you guys believe it? DA BEAR didn't even lay down a vote last phase, wtf?

Gonna get up some content in a bit.

[Blitz]

Marth is at L-3 if my math is right and will answer Refa shortly

[Blitz]

Marth who was your original target?

[charlie_]

Marth, why didn't you claim whilst you were around when Blitz posted his report?

[Bluedoom]

Oh yeah my original target was Rapier because of his joke doc claim and because I wanted to see if there was more to that than met the eye.

And I didn't post when Blitz posted his resulted because I was at college and its hard to phone post

[Bluedoom]

*result

[charlie_]

Why would you Rolecop a townread to check a jokeclaim rather than trying to scan for scum? That makes no sense.

And how does your Rolecop work exactly?

[Blitz]

so, what flavor did you get from the redirection?

[Shin]

Do we even know Blitz is telling the truth? I agree that hammering Marth is a bad idea.

I dunno, I can't why Blitz would lie in a situation like this. A one for one trade is awful from a mafia perspective. This sounds way too stupid for FFM to be trying to protect his scumbuddy. I also feel if he were scum, he'd have known about the redirect and sat quietly on it. That's assuming that it was a scum redirect. Marth's explanation seems reasonable enough, but I'll need to have a look over past content. I'm not too sure about the Belisarius vote, what made their vote so much worse than anyone else's?

Paper's interaction with Cam makes me feel better about Cam. He'd called Cam out on his change in read on him and considered him scummy early, as if to keep the door open. It looked like there was some attempt to put suspicion on him without actually saying anything definite.

No vote currently, I be thinking about something I guess!

[Bluedoom]

@SB: I wanted to solidify my townread on Rapier instead of rolecopping one of my scumreads and not getting as certain a read. Although in hindsight I probably should've done the latter.

And my rolecop just shows the role of the player, not their whole Role PM

@Blitz: Flavour? Well I just got the fact that I successfully targeted BBM, so that's how I know I got redirected. That seems to be the only explanation.

[Blitz]

I still don't trust Marth's claim because of one very simple reason,

why would scum risk redirecting someone who could be the doc onto the person they were going to kill and that is enough reason to not trust Marth's claim.

also, Marth was never scum reading Rapier, so, it makes no sense as to why he would target him (the only targets that would have made sense are me, Prims and Weapons based on Marth's playstyle (if we are talking about say Haze/Prims/Weapons/Eclipse/Life/Kaoz/etc this point would not have been valid) and thus makes me think he is lying even more)

[Blitz]

Blitz, a few...issues (not sure if that's the right word to use here) regarding your arguments before I inevitably fall asleep.

I agree that Marth's associations with FFM make FFM look worse by comparison, but what do you think of FFM's general play overall? Like he's done multiple things that make me think that he's not scum overall (actually I forgot what he did on D1 something to do with his scumread on Rapier for his jokeclaim or something and today with his skepticism about your claim, which seems more likely to come from town than scum considering well, scum would already know whether or not you were telling the truth) and honestly not all town is going to have great interactions with scum (like how in Conspiracy where Prims' interactions were far better than Shin's) so I'd prefer not to scumread someone based on that alone.

Don't really get your scumread on SB because it's based off of two levels of associative read which is kind of eh? Also what do you think about his interactions with Paperblade, because I'm PRETTY SURE those aren't scum/scum interactions.

You do bring up some good points regarding Prims (in particular him being less of a driving force and making the right cases for the wrong reasons) though, I should probably reread him even though I had a gut townread on him early on.

REFA OUT

I actually don't like FFM's play in general, his only content post is http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3258958 and other than this, he has been trying to lurk/ talk about rolespecs/ lurk some more.

(also, read Randa in Reclass, Randa's play was filled with intentional townslips/ asking questions that scum would never ask and looking very townie all the while not doing much to affect the play (I will admit that Randa was similar here too, but play changed after a while) and since I read Randa wrong, I might be reading FFM wrong too.

SB scum read was a reaction test that failed, I am null reading him actually. But I will look into SB + Paper interactions later (hopefully before this phase ends cause I am not confident of my lifespan). But there are stuff about SB that bugs me.

also, thing about Prims is that all the people he targeted/defended ended up as scum (the targets) or I am scum reading them (*insert FFM*) and defended ended up town. Someone tell me how you get such accurate results without having a proper thought process (which Prims is clearly lacking) without using magic knowing who scum is. FFM also makes sense being scum if Prims is scum (and I actually read all 3 scum together and decided that from these 3, Marth would most likely take out the kill, especially if Prims is part of this group)

I still think people should proceed onto lynch FFM or Prims the next day if Marth turns up scum (based on the interactions we had, it seems even more likely to me atm that he will)

also, people like Beascum, Scummri and Beliscum should really get in this game. Kirscum also has a pretty good chance of being scum because of his scum meta pointed out by Weapons, Polscum has yet to answer the questions pointed at him while Rein and Cam should exist. Weascum has almost no chance of being part of the scum team, but could be ITP.

[charlie_]

I think your thoughts on Prims are still kind of grasping. Having accurate reads after one cycle doesn't make him scum yet.

Marth should claim his full role.

[Blitz]

having accurate read isn't the problem, not having the thought process is and Prims is good because of his thought process, not accurate reads, the accurate reads are the results.