Code Geass Mafia - Game Over

[Mitsuki]

When did I assume that Paperblade was telling the truth? The only time that was was when he claimed.

You didn't get what I was asking

##unvote I thought that Refa's reply to Paperblade was scummy, since he kind of implied he believed Paperblade was shot when he had no reason to do so, so I decided to ask him about whether he believed Paperblade was shot or not in a way he couldn't get what I was saying. That didn't work in the end though and well, as I said before I'm inclined to believe his claim.

Ask for clarification if something isn't clear.

@Paperblade: this isn't your slot, don't tell me what to do

[Mitsuki]

also ##Vote: Randa since his suspicion on Elie looks super weird to me, in a scummy way. Elieson is obviously not mafia and I don't like the way that he's saying he could be SK, it looks like painting him as scummy when he has no reason to assume Elie is 3rd. Looks like scum not wanting to drop their only case.

@Randa: could you ISO Marth and tell us your reads based on that?

[Randa]

Okay so Refa's ISO was a pain in the ass and I did not make me wanna lynch him, which makes me sad. Poly's ISO was literal aids, but I don't see him playing this way as scum. So nothing on either of them.

[Randa]

Also I already ISO'd Marth and there isn't anything that warrants a direct comment but there are aspects of it that I am taking into consideration when looking at other players.

[Mitsuki]

Ok, time for my favourite part of the game. Townreads!

I think we can assume that the following people are town based on Marth's ISO: Elie (duh), Poly, Eury, Paper/Baldrick, Eclipse/Boron and Green Poet and I (wow, what a surprise).

- Hydras: look at this post by Marth, he's thinking that Paperblade's logic on the hydras is that the mayor is there to balance the hydra power, and he comments on that, yet he doesn't point out that the logic is wrong because hydras are not a part of the setup. I believe that is because he was assuming that the hydras were a part of the setup, so if he didn't know they were, that mean there weren't any among his scumbuddies.

- Poly: Marth was trying to shoot down townreads on him here, he clearly wouldn't do that to a scumbuddy.

- Elie: Same, but here. It's the first sentence on the post.

- Eury: His vote on her was extremely uninvolved, more like he was voting the popular wagon than bussing. If he wanted to bus her, he'd have actually pushed for her more so as to look better if she flipped, and he'd have had no trouble with coming up with legit reasons since it's easy to case scumbuddies.

Junko and Blitz on my next post. Also I have additional reasons to townread each of these slots, so just ask for further reads if you're not townreading someone among them.

[Eurykins]

Ugh, you should've neighborized me. The whole point is to target your scumreads so you can have better reads on them (since it's easier to read people in OC than it is in NOC). Whatever, so Blitz must have stopped the kill (I mean, if he's just a vanilla and didn't, then there's not really an explanation).

Idk why but I was mildly confused by this notion- what would you have chosen to done had Mitsuki/GP slot chose to neighborize you, Refa?

> Refa's timing (right after PB noted about his BPV having been popped) kinda confused me; seemed to come out of left field (though at least it helped clarify things in terms of what happened N1).

> Am I the only one wondering why Poly wasn't removed the moment he claimed Orange on D1? RB or not, I don't see the point in not removing a protection role once found ASAP, as I figure the entire point of scum team knowing that information was to help them in removing town PRs (and since Doc's generally can't self-target, the only way for them not to get the kill on him is if they were RB'd or if they hit a BPV on him). Also, the lack of Poly elaboration/posting this phase mildly bothers me, and the notions wrt Proto (being role-related to him) still sounds really odd, as he never targeted or otherwise utilized his role around Proto via any of the night phases.

[Also, now that I think about it- wouldn't it be pretty silly for scum to know that "Orange = Miller Doc" information? In the sense that, there's generally not more than one actual town Miller in a game set-up (so once someone claimed Miller, they probably wouldn't even need for the person to confirm flavor-wise that they are Orange in order to figure that it was the person they're looking for?), and if anyone CC'd his original Miller claim, then you'll find the actual one either way? The "quirk" wrt his role seems really weird to me, and the fact that he also flaunted his Orange flavor around was also really bad gameplay in itself.]

That, and as of so far, he's never actually saved anyone with his NA's, and we only have his claim/notions that his N1 action failed (Lol, inb4 he hosted the NK against Roofa), and that he was redirected towards RD/Randa slot last night. ((Tl;dr: There's been little to no actual proof, role-wise, that he's actually what he is, which is bothering me, amongst other things wrt this slot.))

> Holy crap the amount of Vanilla claims.

> Kay slot seems poor to me due to Kay's low level of activities D1 + vote-sitting on Bluedoom (I don't see this as being a town-tell either, as it was relatively easy to vote for Bluedoom at the timing that she did), and Weapons just seems to be flopping around and not really making the slot feel any better.

> @Elieson: While I'm glad you nailed Bluedoom N2, what possibly kept you from shooting a suspected slot on N1? Were you concerned about making your presence known in the game, or was there something else that prevented you from doing so? (I don't recall you getting blocked or anything, but if I'm mistaken please correct me on my thought.)

> Junko seems.... like he's everywhere again. I'm not sure if his last stand in defending Proto (right before his lynch) is leaving good or bad vibes in my head- (Like, if he was scum, it'd be easy to try and defend someone in lieu of garnering townie points because you know they're going to be a mislynch of sorts). Seemed a bit overeager to snap on the Blitz "slip", but not seeing that a scummy move in itself (at least he was trying to legitimately pick up on crumbs/slips?).

> @GP/Mitsuki: I'm glad the goodie bag was helpful to you. What made you pick PB/Baldrick slot to neighbourize, and do you think it helped clarify reads/thoughts wrt other players (as well as on their slot)?

Will be putting more thoughts down in a bit, but I needs to eat.

[Mitsuki]

@Eury: we just wanted to neighbour a hydra because it looked like fun, and from what I recall Eclipse doesn't have Skype

but I think it's been helpful to clarify my read on Refa, and it will probably keep being helpful on the future.

[Green Poet]

We also didn't pick you because we were pretty sure you'd be killed N2 because proto suddenly started townreading you D2 and it looked obvious at the time that you were his N1 scan

[Mitsuki]

ok I'll actually talk about more townreads later

> Am I the only one wondering why Poly wasn't removed the moment he claimed Orange on D1? RB or not, I don't see the point in not removing a protection role once found ASAP, as I figure the entire point of scum team knowing that information was to help them in removing town PRs (and since Doc's generally can't self-target, the only way for them not to get the kill on him is if they were RB'd or if they hit a BPV on him).

Why would scum nightkill him when they can just roleblock him?

[Eurykins]

Imo, the quickest/easiest way to free up PR's on scumside is to elminate the needs to use them indefinitely. N1 would make sense as a RB, but then why choose to redirect instead of just blocking Poly again N2? (Why opt to change how you're controlling/blocking him from one night phase to another, unless there's something about their RB that required someone/something else to take over)

[Mitsuki]

- Junko: I figure out as scum he'd be much more anxious and he'd have a worse time playing, to me he looks calm enough when he posts about his reads. He also tried to switch the lynch to Marth during D2 (post 1, post 2), and I don't think that was him gambitting because I don't see Junko gambitting in such a risky way, and he'd probably have tried to make it more flashy to look townier afterwards.

I don't think he's faking he thought Blitz had scumslipped either.

- Blitz: I see where his logic comes from and his posts don't seem faked to me. Also, during D1 he kept posting decent content posts when people were spamming the thread and he had an exam the next day, which I doubt scum would have done; it's the perfect excuse to stop posting for a while.

[Mitsuki]

@Randa: do you seriously believe Elie is SK? If so, why?

[Paperblade]

##Unvote, ##Vote: Randa

it's 9/2, this means we can afford 3 mislynches

if we just lynch some combination of randa, boron/eclipse, weapons, and junko we should hit at least 1 scum if not both

if the game still isn't over after that we can lynch Poly or something

[Eurykins]

Also, are we doing that whole, "We're gonna have Elie shoot Refa shinanegans" to put Roofa's claim to the test? (Idk if that was solid of "stuff to happen" or not.) There's something I can put into the pile to help with something, but depends on how it'd be utilized.

[Paperblade]

the main problem is that mafia can hook Elieson (and maybe Refa? idk if the commute is hookable)

[Eurykins]

Well, okay. I can offer a minor solution/option (if our lynch doesn't happen to land on said hooker today), buuuuuut it's kinda iffy/comes down to if we can pick them out/narrow it down between one/two people today.

[Mitsuki]

I think Elie should just use his vig to kill someone he suspects rather than to prove Refa's role, since the latter seems a waste.

@Eury: What if the person you give your item to targets Refa instead? Don't claim who you give it to and we won't have to worry about hookers to prove Refa's role.

[Refa]

Yeah, that makes sense. Just give it to someone who is most likely town.

[Refa]

I mean like, full disclosure I could still be a Scum Ascetic if you only target me with something that's not a kill, but if you don't believe in that possibility (it's uh obvious what I think lol), then Elieson should just vig whoever he thinks is scum.

[Elieson]

Simple enough

Paper, why randragon first?

[Mitsuki]

I don't think we should rely on such a big PoE pool to win the game for us by the way. This game is not solved.

For example, would you expect SB to include 3 town aligned protective roles on a 11/3 setup? Either one of them is lying or this is 10/4. Don't know about you but I have no idea on who would be the one to be lying, or on who would be the 4th scum. Or even which of both scenarios is the correct one, if not another one I haven't thought of.

So let's actually keep the scumhunting up and try to lynch scum, thank you.

[Refa]

Yeah, I agree. I'm on my phone ATM and will do a more detailed analysis replies later, but my initial impression of Randa's content was uh bad (well that's unfair, rather him trying to lynch a Elieson because he could be the SK), but it's still better than Weapons, who's actively being unhelpful and getting away with it because ?. Although, Randa, what is your opinion on Junk, Weapons, and Born/eclipse?

[Refa]

Eury, can people use the inventions you give and their roles on the same night?

[Paperblade]

I don't think we should rely on such a big PoE pool to win the game for us by the way. This game is not solved.

For example, would you expect SB to include 3 town aligned protective roles on a 11/3 setup? Either one of them is lying or this is 10/4. Don't know about you but I have no idea on who would be the one to be lying, or on who would be the 4th scum. Or even which of both scenarios is the correct one, if not another one I haven't thought of.

So let's actually keep the scumhunting up and try to lynch scum, thank you.

If it's 10/4 (which'd be 8/3 now) things don't actually change, we have one less mislynch (giving us 2 instead of 3) but are proportionally more likely to hit scum (hit 3 scum out of 5 players instead of 2)

[Eurykins]

@Refa: I don't believe so, as the item translates into a 1-shot ability.