AM/PM 2 Mafia - GAME OVER

[Refa]

Don't think Mancer would lie about numbers as either alignment.

Your case on Mancer, is to be blunt, bad. People dropped scumreads on Rapier's slot for no apparent reason. Rapier's D1 was incredibly ambiguous, and had next to no real content other than weakly picking at Makaze's arguments, even leaving margin for error there. This is definitely the scummiest slot in the game right now for me.

Who do you think is night scum with Snike?

[Makaze]

Don't think Mancer would lie about numbers as either alignment.

I actually agree. Either Mancer is lying and is scum, or he isn't lying and is the most likely scum with those numbers.

Shinori is also viable for dayscum, but the way Terrador defended Elie the other day looks pretty bad.

[Refa]

Man, if this counts as a townslip I'll be so happy that my dinosaur comics actually accomplished something. Snike, you can go out loud with your plans if you want, but uh...that first message wasn't from this game, BBM actually linked it from a past game (which you would know if you were his scumbuddy). None of those were really intentional though, just me picking the first names that came to mind.

[Refa]

Shinori is also viable for dayscum, but the way Terrador defended Elie the other day looks pretty bad.

It's bad for sure, my only problem being that I feel Terrador would have been much more logical and wouldn't have AtEd as scum? I dunno, I'll try and look into both of them later, but I trust him over Shinori and maybe even LG (?).

[ZoesMad]

Who do you think is night scum with Snike?

Mancer/Blitz. It's really PoE based.

[Makaze]

Mancer/Blitz. It's really PoE based.

What do you think of my reasoning for clearing Blitz?

[Snike]

Refa, I sent you a message. Please respond either through pm or here. You can share it as well, if you want.

Time to pack it up folks.

Thanks.

Unprovable rolespec: Snike has some kind of BPV role. That's the second time that slot has said "you can kill me". Two different people? What's up with that?

Intent spec: Killing a town doesn't help town, right? If you and someone else are on the block, you should do everything you can to get the other person lynched or vigged because you know you are town but you can't be so sure about the other person. If that logic isn't convincing, adding "you can kill me" is in conflict with telling you to wait for the flip. I can see changing your mind, but these appear in the same message. Either trying too hard to get killed or trying too hard not to get killed; neither are in town's interest.

Bold: Yes it does, because with flip you get associative reads to some extent. My role is disposable, so I suggested taking a bullet for the flip because it's pretty obvious scum are forcing a push on me. The current numbers are at best for scum 8/3 (assuming mancer's lying and scum fsr have 6 players), but more likely 9/2 or 10/1(still unlikely for this one). We can afford to mislynch. However, I'm going to fight this lynch so that we don't drag the game out any longer than necessary.

(In retrospect I'm glad I didn't take that bullet because that meant BBM took it.)

Middle-Of-Post Edit (stream of consciousness Mancer) in response to Makaze: I could've, but scum could've as well in order to make me look worse, especially since Rapier is usually on the endangered players list. More to the point, that night kill could've been used to kill a clear (hello Makaze), the vigilante suspect, or Junko so as to gamble with kill priority (ie hope junko is killed before her action is completed so that bizz looks like a liar). The other thing is what is the scum motivation behind even contacting the vigilante suspect (refa for reasons I'm not comfortable enough to disclose yet), let alone telling him to calm down with the role crumbs? My post here called for a doctor on him, which is even more counter-productive to my goal if I am scum. In this situation, scum would sit on their read and put a bullet through his head in the night phase, so that they'd stop hemorrhaging teammates.

Like, if I'm scum, I must be on some sort of suicide mission.

Also, slight correction: I contacted Poly, not the other way around. Waiting on mod confirmation to post my actual messages from role pm (minus id stuff so I don't have to initiate my previous contacts again).

Marth is sorta right but then why does he ignore my questioning #623 here , instead giving an Appeal to Emotion defense (623-627 is relevant reading)? The Makaze case and read on my part is obviously wrong, but I went after him because his reads were off and I was under the impression that he was going for the inactive players (see my Frosted Flake references) for easy mislynches. I went for him over Mancer because persuader is a priority target to stave off scum lynch control.

Going to supper, but I'll post again afterwards.

[Snike]

will do refa when I get back

[Percivalé]

[not in the game anymore but assuming i get a last post anyway]

will do refa when I get back

;) ;) ;)

[Makaze]

The logical conclusion is they thought SB was the vig.

[Makaze]

Snike is cleared as far as I'm concerned. That post was flawless.

[ZoesMad]

@Makaze: I must have missed your post about Blitz being clear. But how did Blitz gain info that Poly was the vig in the first place? That's my only real question since I was presuming Refa was the only person who knew Poly was vig before he claimed. Otherwise it seems pretty good and makes Mancer the likely night scum. Terra isn't looking too good either then.

[Makaze]

Blitz didn't know he was the vig, just that he was lying. That's the basis of my case.

[Makaze]

Process of Elimination list:

Day Players

1. Lord Gaius

2. Shinori

3. Makaze - Town

5. Refa - Town

8. Terrador

9. Rapier/Snike - Town

Night Players

4. Blitz - Town

6. Bluedoom

7. Mancer

8. Junk - Town

9. Poly - Town

Remaining:

b]Day Players[/b]

1. Lord Gaius

2. Shinori

8. Terrador

Night Players

6. Bluedoom

7. Mancer

[Refa]

Blitz wasn't talking about Poly lying about his role (as in, the one that counts as a NA), but rather lying about the courier/announcement part of his role.

[Makaze]

Thanks for that.

[Makaze]

If Shinori doesn't post something useful we should have him vigged or lynched.

[Shinori]

I'm compelled to vote for mancer. Yay.

I'm not even gonna bother arguing with makaze cause he's probably town but he's stupid as shit.

[Makaze]

You don't need to argue with me, but you need to give everyone a reason to think you are not scum. Every single person you've suspected is confirmed town.

[Snike]

[not in the game anymore but assuming i get a last post anyway]

;) ;) ;)

quote pls

part 2 coming up

[Shinori]

I really want to lynch him though but he's like probably town. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

I don't see there being another scum persuader.

Oh and I've got a reason but I have no reason to speak about it right now.

Meanwhile I'm going to try and found out who i think is scum.

[Makaze]

Hope your next post isn't another promise.

[Snike]

Man, if this counts as a townslip I'll be so happy that my dinosaur comics actually accomplished something. Snike, you can go out loud with your plans if you want, but uh...that first message wasn't from this game, BBM actually linked it from a past game (which you would know if you were his scumbuddy). None of those were really intentional though, just me picking the first names that came to mind.

OK, still waiting on confirmation about directly quoting my messages from my role PM, but this is easy to paraphrase anyways so it doesn't matter.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=53097&p=3704859 Night 0. Note that the Vigilante is lynched.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=53097&p=3714947 Night 1. Note that Strawman is lynched.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=53097&p=3722290 Night 2. Note that BBM, Terrador, and Blitz, ie Refa scumreads, are in the picture.

So, these pictures were done by Refa, and then all of a sudden during day 2 he shows up and starts asking about vig targets. I was rereading the thread at that point and had one of my tabs on the strawman picture. It looks like vig crumbs, which is why I messaged him with the D2 message he posted earlier. I kinda feel pretty dumb right now for thinking that that was actually a thing.

All the same, Refa is still town because he hasn't stabbed poly in the back.

OK, back to your regular schedule, another point to raise against the whole Elie over Blitz in Marth's argument is that elie did have N2 to content post but didn't. I also saw him a few times looking at the thread late day 2, but there was no announcement or message from him. The rapier being scummy issue I can agree with to some extent because I had a half-page of a case on him before I subbed in (I thought I'd be subbing in for Poly), but at the same time we're different players, so at the same time that's not much of a case to go on.

Marth technically should claim according to Makaze's list because that's a 1v1. I think (obviously) that Mancer is the scum there, but massclaim doesn't hurt at this point in time in the game. Blitz is pretty clear IMO by reasoning that even if both he and elie were scum, he was inactive 5+ days and persuader confirmed Makaze so he should've been bussed.

Onto Gaius' case.

His basis for his case, essentially, is that Mancer is credible, due to argument and likely accurate setup numbers, all the night players are more townie, and Rapier. More on the former later, but the night players being more townie-looking sorta goes against Mancer's numbers and isn't a very strong argument. Rapier was mentioned earlier in the second part of rebutting Marth.

Accurate setup numbers are easy to fake if you guess(safely), that there's around 1/3 of players non-town and an ITP claims.

OK, so let's go to Mancer.

I wanna smack you so hard now that it's not even funny. Please reread everything all over again, thanks.

"I don't agree with Mancer's arguments, especially because it reads a lot more like nitpicking. EX: The Eury WC argument, (the N0 not making a fuss thing, to nitpick, I think was due to Mancer trying to shut down the discussion [posts #13 -~#42])"

Completely sheeping many other players' reads. Also, how was I trying to shut down any discussion? What discussion was I actually shutting down anyway?

Players who had scum reads on me had it for my Eury read which was separate for my insistence to not talk about the possibility of the N0 kill existing. What is the scum intent behind me shutting down a useless discussion that would distract players away from scum hunting anyway? Like I mentioned, scum would be trying to fuel town to talk about distracting topics and not try to handwave or downplay the topic.

"then on the blitz ISO, he either fails to notice or misrepresents part of the blitz post talking about his day status (#376)."

I really have no idea what you're talking about here. Also, what do you think of Blitz from the posts I quoted? He showed a lot of interest in Prims and yet, went on a huge 180 degrees jump to vote Shinori instead of continuing his read and pressure on Prims.

"Later he does this to Junko in #403, when both are cases of stream of consciousness style posts (mentioned in quoted notes)."

You need to post more clearly because I don't have a clue what you're saying and what a "stream of consciousness style post" is.

"What really rustles my jimmies is the downplay of the Eury lynch. From what I understand, while SB supposedly misrepped Mancer's reads, this one wasn't refuted by either Refa or Mancer:

-snip-

Considering he pushed the Eury lynch so hard, it looks like an attempt to abandon ship."

I actually advocated a Blitz lynch D1 over a Eury lynch because Blitz had had more posts, content and interactions than Eury. I don't know where you're getting the idea that I hard pressed for Eury to be lynched.

Post quoted from D2.

Also really annoyed and irritated at Snike right now. Blatant misrepping, tunneling and being generally unhelpful LD2 after subbing in makes me wonder if he may be the scum instead.

First of all AtE + potentially rule 15 effectively. He may need to reevaluate how seriously he's taking this game if he wants to hit me over building a case of sorts against him. The rereading part is a smear since he's implying I can't read correctly.

He doesn't point out the exact reads I'm 'sheeping', or specifically which read I am sheeping. The shutting down discussion was referring to the ruckus about whether there was a N0 nightkill, which is relevant because if there's a kill it will give the town information. He starts shutting it down here, and spends a few posts saying it'd be better to not talk about it at all and instead scumhunt. On the first night of the game. I don't know about you but I think speculating about a potential kill at the start of the game is a fair discussion to have. It's weird because he says he didn't shut down any discussion, but he continues to sandbag the kill discussion anyways.

Blitz Iso area I'm referring to is the start of #137, where Blitz evidently obtained mod confirmation while he wrote his post. A similar thing looked like it happened to junk, which he apparently didn't take into account in either case, because he then used it against them.

Aside: I mean stream of consciousness as in they're writing more or less their thought process and reacting in relative real time.

The last section about the Eury lynch reads as backpedaling like I previously mentioned because you cased her fairly ardently N0, continued to call her scummy but you didn't say you didn't want her lynched, you said via announcement you'd like an explanation before lynch. Then N1, you said, and I quote,

"There's nothing much to garner off of Eury's lynch since she hasn't had much interactions with anyone. Of note is Makaze's reluctance to lynch Eury though which could stem from scum intent."

The Blitz advocating thing is misrepresented, because it was conditional on his not showing up. Gee, considering the above, I wonder who the alternative would've been?

Last line is a smear on me, especially the tunneling part considering I'd been around a phase AND I had a lot of various reads. Being at the top of my list doesn't mean I'm going exclusively after you, mate.

LD2 has been already explained, but to reiterate I waited to consolidate to circumvent any potential doublevoter shenanigans, as well as take the bullet if the lynch target ended up being vengeful.

So how does this relate to Gaius? Well, he's repeating Mancer's misrep accusation and calling my case 'bad' without pointing out why it's bad. This feels more like sheeping than anything else in thread, IMO.

I think Gaius isn't very good because of that, but at the same time he gets some credit from the elie ML because he could've swapped onto Blitz. So while I personally think scum's Mancer + one of Terrador/Gaius, I'd still lean terrador over Gaius right now.

That's enough for now, time to go for a walk. Might be back later, but if not I'll be back tomorrow again, after work.

[Shinori]

@Makaze: I really have no incentive to do shit since you have already persuaded me. I'm going to read over and probably state my thoughts but I can't change my vote or do anything else so I mean it's probably just gonna be me being lazy because of that. So I hope you don't expect too much. I'm not the type to make walls generally. Nor am I the type to reread a whole thread.

[Makaze]

@Shinori: Why aren't you scum then? You said you had a reason. Basically all of your posts are "I will give real reads later" with no bottom line. I don't see anything to that but self-preservation? In light of that and the info we have right now I agree with Snike.

I call for a massclaim. The vig is out and you have no reason to hide. I'm Morning-only Day Persuader+Announcer.