Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[BBM]

eh I was going to talk originally about how Pika's Prims vote bothered me but it was pretty early on and there wasn't a ton else at that point going on. interested to see his next post.

FK's mack vote feels super easy? mack's vote on me seemed pretty obviously a joke

 

 

[Green Poet]

thoughts on game so far:

prims switching votes saying "I didn't know" after refa explained the pic was weird at first, like he'd taken it seriously. the vote switch is better when I look at it like "ok, putting aside my rvs refa joke and examining someone (bartozio) for real now."

odd response to BBM, considering that. I agree with BBM that there's nothing to be gained from the image, and it's not alignment-indicative.

elie seems to be joking here, and responses/questions to it read like they're getting tripped up by assuming he's serious.

BBM's explanation on vote stacking is good. michelaar appearing in thread and still putting down (what I assume was) an rvs vote after this is kinda meh. he makes a few more short passive posts later on.

don't like how michelaar is playing only defensively:

Well, there is not much to talk about here, is there? People start random voting, so I do the same. I think it's a bit on the unfair side to lay me as mafia just because of that.

"I'm doing the same as town, why don't I look town to you?"

Mackc2 should explain his vote

I don't agree with junko and elie's BBM cases. like I understand them but imo his pushing prims on refa jokevote was normal. wouldn't lynch BBM today.

##Unvote

##Vote: Michelaar

[Michelaar]

I didnt mean to be overly defensive. I explained why I voted on Oboro-Garasu and people jump on me like i'm the last food in the world.

 

The votevon Oboro-garasu was random, nothing else.

[Green Poet]

who do you think is scum now?

[Michelaar]

I don't have suspicions yet. Day 1 is always a bit of a crazy day. So I don't really suspect anyone yet. I want to see more happen before I make up my mind. This is how I play mafia, like it or not.

 

The prims vs BBM thing doesnt bother me. Things like these usually happen, and it's not that suspect.

 

[Green Poet]

michelaar's play is scummy to me and quite a few others, but I'm realizing he's a pretty easy vote atm and scum who have been more attentively playing the game so far are probably already on his wagon.

maybe prims? prims wanting to lynch mack as well reads like he's going for lower-hanging fruit compared to how I remember he usually hunts earlygame.

would currently still lynch michelaar before anyone on his wagon though.

[Junk]

@BBM what makes you think proto is worse than me? I did say that I didn't feel good about you but did not vote you at first.

Michelaar I feel idk, he should be much worse because passive responses at this point in the game are obviously bad but would scum just do that? It screams "lynch me",  god this reminds me of how I felt about izuhark in the last game in which I just could not figure out why scum would commit these actions and yet izuhark was scum but I think a game before that I felt the same way about izuhark and he was town in that one.

[Green Poet]

1 minute ago, Junk said:

Michelaar I feel idk, he should be much worse because passive responses at this point in the game are obviously bad but would scum just do that? It screams "lynch me"

yeah I'm kind of getting this feeling too. he is still fundamentally scummier than anyone else though

2 minutes ago, Junk said:

god this reminds me of how I felt about izuhark in the last game in which I just could not figure out why scum would commit these actions and yet izuhark was scum but I think a game before that I felt the same way about izuhark and he was town in that one.

is the first game you're talking about the one where he was joking around with image posts for most of all d1-d2? iirc his scumbuddies weren't advising him to act otherwise (intentionally?) but it's too early to tell if that's the case here

[Junk]

3 minutes ago, Green Poet said:

yeah I'm kind of getting this feeling too. he is still fundamentally scummier than anyone else though

is the first game you're talking about the one where he was joking around with image posts for most of all d1-d2? iirc his scumbuddies weren't advising him to act otherwise (intentionally?) but it's too early to tell if that's the case here

yeah, i think michelarr would be ahead of BBM for me now because I feel like fundamentally if michelarr is a townie anyway, then he's pretty much a liability if this type of content keeps up and i'm really nervous about dealing with that situation a few day phases down the line. Not gonna place my vote on him though because I think he's at 5 votes and don't want to put him at L1 just in case someone fucks up and accidentally votes him.

 

The first game I'm referring to is revivial of mafia and izuhark did not joke post images, maybe you're thinking of a different one? 

[BBM]

@junko- not sure why you're drawing a comparison between you and proto? you didn't vote for me originally because you lacked confidence in your read. You should have voted me anyways - a vote isn't a vig shot - but it's different from pursuing a pressure vote over your suspicion.

22 minutes ago, Green Poet said:

michelaar's play is scummy to me and quite a few others, but I'm realizing he's a pretty easy vote atm and scum who have been more attentively playing the game so far are probably already on his wagon.

maybe prims? prims wanting to lynch mack as well reads like he's going for lower-hanging fruit compared to how I remember he usually hunts earlygame.

would currently still lynch michelaar before anyone on his wagon though.

This post kind of feels like taking both sides of an argument to me. There's only a point to looking for scum on the wagon you're voting for if you think that somebody is bussing, but the reason GP gives for Prims maybe being scum implies a scenario of scum!Prims going for an easy vote against town!Michelaar. At best it's not useful content.

[Green Poet]

Just now, BBM said:

There's only a point to looking for scum on the wagon you're voting for if you think that somebody is bussing

...but also if I assume it's possible I'm mistaken about the wagon, right? It's still early on enough in the game that what I have to work with doesn't give me enough to say that scum!michelaar is a given and that I wouldn't think about what the alternative implies, especially given how many people are on the wagon and michelaar's textbook scummy play so far.

[Michelaar]

1 minute ago, Green Poet said:

...but also if I assume it's possible I'm mistaken about the wagon, right? It's still early on enough in the game that what I have to work with doesn't give me enough to say that scum!michelaar is a given and that I wouldn't think about what the alternative implies, especially given how many people are on the wagon and michelaar's textbook scummy play so far.

I really don't know how I am suddenly like SO scummy. Like, care to elaborate?

[Green Poet]

5 minutes ago, Michelaar said:

I really don't know how I am suddenly like SO scummy. Like, care to elaborate?

A majority of your posts are noncommittal, and aim to figure out what people find scummy about your own play rather than others', then you handwave the responses ("that's just how I play mafia").

Actually, I just went and looked through some older games - in Random Filler Mafia the First, the last game we played together, you rolled scum and were lynched D1. Our interactions then were actually extremely similar to now: you kept a random vote well past rvs, were accused of it by others and reacted very defensively, I asked you what you thought about current scum since rvs was over, and I received a similarly noncommittal answer as I did this game.

I feel much better about this lynch now, sorry if that's worded harshly.

[Michelaar]

It's okay. It looks like I won't convince you anyway.

[Pika_pika42]

UNVOTE: Prims

Their recent posts are far better and their discussion generating questions make them feel good to me.

Prims and Junk are looking good to me for their overall posts and for generating discussion.

Mackc2 and Michelaar are looking too scummy atm. While Mackc2 is suspicious for hiding their thoughts and not contributing much while Michelaar is suspicious for their defensive play and non-comital posts.

However imo, they both look so scummy that they could actually be town. I think scum is looking at an easy lynch and I agree with Green Poet that atleast 1 person on the Michelaar wagon could be scum.

I am not comfortable in voting anyone now. Need to read through carefully again.

[Refa]

2 hours ago, BBM said:

don't think michelaar was being overdefensive. he is being lazy but seems more lazytown. why would scum admit to being experienced when he'd get underestimated if everyone thought he was new?

That's actually a good point, I don't see any benefit in Michelaar saying he's experienced when that'd just make coasting harder.  Still frustrating that he didn't give a satisfactory response to my vote, but I don't think I'm going to get one at this point.  This post from him also makes me think that the issue isn't that he's scum but that he's just not being proactive.

1 hour ago, Green Poet said:

thoughts on game so far:

prims switching votes saying "I didn't know" after refa explained the pic was weird at first, like he'd taken it seriously. the vote switch is better when I look at it like "ok, putting aside my rvs refa joke and examining someone (bartozio) for real now."

odd response to BBM, considering that. I agree with BBM that there's nothing to be gained from the image, and it's not alignment-indicative.

I don't agree with junko and elie's BBM cases. like I understand them but imo his pushing prims on refa jokevote was normal. wouldn't lynch BBM today.

I don't get your stance on Prims.  His vote on Bartzio obviously wasn't a serious vote either, so I'm not sure why that would make the voteswitch look better.  Later on, you mention that Prims could be scum on Michelaar's wagon which reads as weird to me.  I get that I'm the paragon of town, but it doesn't make sense that you're analyzing Prims' position on the wagon and not mine considering I have the same scumreads as him and you didn't have any read on me before.  Are you suspicious of him?  Why or why not?

IMO BBM's Prims' vote is the least telling of his content (yeah he talked about it a lot but that's because he got prodded about it a lot).  What do you think about his Proto case and his response post after that?

##Unvote

##Vote: Mackc2

[Refa]

Gonna be real with you GP, you seem weirdly self deprecating.  I don't get why you'd call out your own vote as an "easy vote" or what exactly is wrong with the wagon (and honestly, a three person wagon in the middle of a day that requires seven to lynch does not seem worth complaining about to me); it'd be one thing if you had an issue with a specific Michelaar vote, but you don't seem too beyond a vague suspicion of Prims.

1 hour ago, Green Poet said:

...but also if I assume it's possible I'm mistaken about the wagon, right? It's still early on enough in the game that what I have to work with doesn't give me enough to say that scum!michelaar is a given and that I wouldn't think about what the alternative implies, especially given how many people are on the wagon and michelaar's textbook scummy play so far.

Why would you assume that you're mistaken, though?  There's a difference between not being ridiculously confident in your read (because it is Day 1 and no one should be) and playing devil's advocate to your own read.  Working off the assumption that you're wrong bothers me because it reads as though you're expecting your read to be wrong, which contradicts how confident you currently are in it.

[Refa]

Actually, this is a better vote

##Unvote

##Vote: Green Poet

[Green Poet]

25 minutes ago, Refa said:

I don't get your stance on Prims.  His vote on Bartzio obviously wasn't a serious vote either, so I'm not sure why that would make the voteswitch look better.

I read his Bartozio vote as a prod, like trying to get his attention and answer his questions, so that Prims would have a better idea of who he was (if Bartozio was Baldrick like Prims was wondering, then that would have changed how he'd approach reading their posts, etc.). It was clearly a more on-track and serious vote to me than when he voted you over posting a particular image.

26 minutes ago, Refa said:

I get that I'm the paragon of town, but it doesn't make sense that you're analyzing Prims' position on the wagon and not mine considering I have the same scumreads as him and you didn't have any read on me before.  Are you suspicious of him?  Why or why not?

I actually just didn't see that you'd also expressed suspicion of Mack... my bad.

At the time I thought scum!Prims was a possibility to bring up because of how differently he was playing compared to the game I linked above, Random Filler. He listed a full scumteam he thought was likely and kept reminding people that that was what he thought, and didn't look at Michelaar then despite him playing the same way he is in this game. This game, he is suspecting Michelaar, and in isolation, which strikes me as very different from how he approached the game as town before.

6 minutes ago, Refa said:

Working off the assumption that you're wrong bothers me because it reads as though you're expecting your read to be wrong, which contradicts how confident you currently are in it.

Sure, you could think of it that way, but I think it's only realistic not to assume one is guaranteed to be right. Examining the largest and easiest wagon makes sense regardless of who I'm currently voting for. I'm not saying there's obvious scum intent on the wagon, because opportunistic scum play can end up being identical to intuitive town play. I'm saying it's something to consider because of how convenient the wagon is.

That said, after rereading Random Filler, I'm more sure in my Michelaar vote. I think it's significantly likelier that he is simply playing into his scum meta than anything else.

[BBM]

1 hour ago, Green Poet said:

...but also if I assume it's possible I'm mistaken about the wagon, right? It's still early on enough in the game that what I have to work with doesn't give me enough to say that scum!michelaar is a given and that I wouldn't think about what the alternative implies, especially given how many people are on the wagon and michelaar's textbook scummy play so far.

of course you should consider the possibility you're wrong, but why is that like the very next thing you're doing after voting for him? your #2 source of content shouldn't be based on the assumption that your #1 source of content is wrong.

Pika's last post isn't good. basically takes no stance on anything by not saying whether mack/michelaar are more likely to be town or scum, not saying which of them is worse, and not saying who on the michelaar wagon might be scum. also bothers me that there is more information now to be a bit more confident in a vote than 2 pages ago, but he was okay with voting for Prims then and not okay with voting anybody now.

@pika/michelaar- just vote somebody. go with your best hunch even if you're not confident. you can change your vote easily. even just saying "eh I have a gut feeling about this person so I'm going to vote them" is better than not voting, both in terms of you getting a read on other people and in terms of other people getting a read on you. 

[BBM]

tbh michelaar's last two posts are making me doubt my read. pika's waffling bothers me but at least he has a thought process, and mack's lack of (public) thought process is annoying but at least he has opinions. michelaar, you don't have opinions and you're not even trying to get them. You seem unable to understand why people find you scummy, but you're also not trying to analyze their votes on you in any way to see if any of them might be scum. I don't understand what you're trying to do in this game.

GP, do you have a town game of michelaar's to compare his scum meta to?

[Bluedoom]

Yo I'm alive, have been having exams.Will post in a few hours

[Bluedoom]

Actually fuck I'll get this in while I can.

 

##Unvote ##Vote:Pika

The amount of waffling in his last post is terrible. Michelaar and Mackc2 are so scummy that they're town, you think that there must be at least one scum on their wagons, yet you don't vote any of the people on the wagon? I don't buy you being uncomfortable with voting anyone right now. There's definitely evidence out there to vote someone, so this feels like you're playing safe and being opportunistic. 

[Mackc2]

I will explain my vote then but I personally don't think its a very good reason and I was self-conscious about it, basically Elieson started the lynch train against BBM as far as I noticed, and i personally don't understand his reasoning, In addition he is generally being very Jovial and making self deprecating jokes, which is exactly how I would play mafia as people would trust you more institutionally and see you as less of a threat and it was stupid of me to even bother hiding that reasoning.

[Michelaar]

If i'm supposed to go with my gut feeling, then my vote won't change. I place my vote on oboro-garasu, and the next moment I get voted on in return. This was obviously a random vote, as he/she acknowledged. And I get called out for randomvoting when that's literally what everyone else is doing.