Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Bartozio]

Michelaar:

His town slip is a decent point. It could have been him trying to trick us, but it doesn't really fit toghether well with any of his other posts (if he was this good at tricking people, he wouldn't have become so heavily suspected in the first place). Not realizing there hasn't been a night phase sounds weird for either camp though, especially considering one of his earlier arguments for not doing much is because it is only D1 (if there was already a night fase, what makes D1 so different from D2?). So yeah, I'm not convinced he's not scum yet. His other posts seem to just follow the trend of reacting to other people without contributing much.

Mackc2:

I'm sticking with my point that his first posts seem bad rather then scummy. His later posts of telling people that lynching people D1 feels odd to me though, since less lynches is clearly better for mafia. I'm not sure whether it's bad scum play or bad town play though.

I'm a bit more suspicous of him, but not a lot.

Green Poet:

I can see her being a bit indecisive, but not suspiciously so. I don't really see the whole making a 2nd scumread assuming your first is wrong here that refa mentioned, as examining a lynch train seems quite reasonable, whether the target is scum or not. I will agree that her read on prism feels weird, but after mentioning older games I understand the reasoning.

Faerie Knight:

His arguing with others could be read as a distraction, but I feel like it's more a matter of him getting pissed and/or frustrated. His reasoning for voting Marc feels like refusing to let go his feeling on one post.

I'm not convinced he's scum, but I'm a bit more suspecting of him then others.

Pika:

I think he made some undicisive posts and didn't appear after that again. Him not voting after voicing his opinions feels odd (and scum like), but not appearing after that, especially with all the suspicion on him just feels weird. I guess it could be his way of hoping people will forget about him and focus on others more? His lack of posts to analyze make me a bit less certain then with Mich, but what he posted does feel more scum then town.

I don't really find anything suspicious or worth mentioning about other people.

In short:

Lynch order: Michelaar > Pika >>>>> FK >> Marck

I'm putting Michelaar and Pika as scum, with a slight preferance for lynching Mich.

I'm having doubts about Marckc2 and FK, but not so much that I think Lynching them is a good idea.

Everyone else doesn't seem that suspicious for now.

 

 

 

[Elieson]

just finished a skim

 

@Prims really quick before anything else, pika_pika42's from bulbagarden, a much much more laid back mafia environment (fk plays there too). PP42's newish there and honestly, this is how he tends to play; quiet and reactionary way before committal. I'm not giving him a pass necessarily, but this isn't unfamiliar play.

[Junk]

Uh bartizio, if there's a night 0 usually only scum can talk I think, so town still 100% blind so d1 for town is still similar even if there's a n0, BBM summarized my thoughts pretty well, 

Pika's thoughts seem pretty natural to me, he felt confident in his prims read and later thought he'd improved and wasn't feeling sure about anyone else? If he's not feeling confident as a new player I could see why he'd do that, 

Bell is about to ring so can't really give my thoughts on Mack or bartizio really but think they're town, think Mack's responses to refa seem genuine and bartizio tone makes me have a gut feeling of town,

Michelarr s read sames to me surface level reads make me feel last ditch effort redirect momentum, okay bye

[Michelaar]

@Bartozio Your reasons for suspectingme with the line of: His other posts seem to just follow the trend of reacting to other people without contributing much is LITERALLY what you have been doing this entire time. Bit hypocritical.

[Pika_pika42]

Woah so many votes on me. I understand I have not contributed anything in my earlier 2 posts and I have not been much active. I am new here and I don't know anyone of you and your playstyles, so it's a bit difficult for me to form reads. I didn't want to vote off a townie, that's why I unvoted Prims (after I read their further posts which I found pretty good) and did not place my vote on anyone. I have never been part of such an intense Day 1 so I felt that I should read the game over again but even after reading through it, I haven't found anyone especially suspicious. I will post my thoughts on whatever I have gathered till now.

 

Prims: Slight Town read. Like their posts in which they ask various questions to others and generate discussion. 

Magnificence Incarnate: Don't like their posts much. They have also not contributed much or anything new. Their defending of Mackc2 makes me feel suspicious of them. I can understand that they say I was waffling a lot but I can't understand their point of me being opportunistic. They have not explained that point clearly.

Michelaar: Slight Town read. Though Michelaar has mostly defended themselves and not contributed much but I can understand their situation if their case is like me, but if they claim to be experienced, they should not be having much problems in dealing with the experts here. Also their town slip is one which could be easily fakeable, so I am not reading them as town for that slip but their overall posts. They later provide their reads list which is also a genuine attempt, I think.

Bartozio: Null read. I am not being able to read them much. They claimed they are a new player. I don't like their statement that they are not convinced Michelaar is scum yet is most suspicious and then they vote Michelaar. This is a bit confusing as if you're not convinced someone is scum, why would you vote them?

Elieson: I know him and have seen him play in a few games. He's likely the most aggressive player (atleast on Bulba) where he mostly becomes the Town Leader and helps us solve the game. This side of his seems missing here. He's mostly quiet and inactive. He was mostly joking around early D1 and then engaged in a discussion with Fairie Knight where he blames Fairie for not doing much but I haven't seen him do much either. Null read for now.

Pika_pika42: Confused soul. A noob stuck among old crotchity hardcore players. Is Town, please don't lynch.

Mackc2: Slight scum read. He placed his vote on Elieson without much reason. He said that he would prefer to not share his thoughts as that would make him a target. He later shared his reason which according to me were not quite good to begin with. Has still stuck with their vote on Elieson despite so much else happening in thread. They are either scum or a paranoid townie.

I will post the other half of my reads after an hour. Going for dinner now.

[Bartozio]

2 minutes ago, Junk said:

Uh bartizio, if there's a night 0 usually only scum can talk I think, so town still 100% blind so d1 for town is still similar even if there's a n0, BBM summarized my thoughts pretty well,

Oh, I figured a N0 would mean someone gets killed and role actions still take place (Mich's post somewhat gave me the feeling he thought that as well, as he mentioned Marc might have a role that let him gain some information during the night). In this case, town people would not have significant more information on D2 then on D1, so staying passive for D1 makes less sense.

If N0 is only talking for scum then yeah, we'd still be 100% blind, but Mich's posts don't give me the idea that that was what he thought.

5 minutes ago, Michelaar said:

@Bartozio Your reasons for suspectingme with the line of: His other posts seem to just follow the trend of reacting to other people without contributing much is LITERALLY what you have been doing this entire time. Bit hypocritical.

1. My posts are mostly about me giving my opinion of people after looking at what has been said, with some minor posts about correcting people about stuff in between. The only times you gave opinions was when you were heavily pressed for them.

2. None of my posts are about me defending myself from being suspected (apart from maybe this one, but it's more me giving an explanation then me defending myself I think) , while a lot of your posts are at least about questioning why you are being suspected. This gives me the impression that you're focussing more on staying alive then on finding scum (which is obviously scummy).

Basicly, your not my main suspect for your lack of contribution (Marck didn't contribute that much more, at least around the time I started suspecting you), but because of what most of your posts are about.

[Michelaar]

1 minute ago, Bartozio said:

1. My posts are mostly about me giving my opinion of people after looking at what has been said, with some minor posts about correcting people about stuff in between. The only times you gave opinions was when you were heavily pressed for them.

2. None of my posts are about me defending myself from being suspected (apart from maybe this one, but it's more me giving an explanation then me defending myself I think) , while a lot of your posts are at least about questioning why you are being suspected. This gives me the impression that you're focussing more on staying alive then on finding scum (which is obviously scummy).

Basicly, your not my main suspect for your lack of contribution (Marck didn't contribute that much more, at least around the time I started suspecting you), but because of what most of your posts are about.

1. I have made a lot of posts about my opinion actually. Not even when I was heavily pressed for them.

2. So can I not defend myself when i'm being suspected? Also I don't know how wanting to stay alive is scummy...

[Bartozio]

2 minutes ago, Michelaar said:

1. I have made a lot of posts about my opinion actually. Not even when I was heavily pressed for them.

2. So can I not defend myself when i'm being suspected? Also I don't know how wanting to stay alive is scummy...

1. I'll have to reread things then, since I remember otherwise. I'll come back to this in a bit.

2. You can. Trying to stay alive isn't scummy on it's own, but focussing more on staying alive then on hunting scum is scummy.

@Pika_pika42 I voted for my most likely suspect since we have to lynch someone anyway. If we're lynching someone, I prefer lynching someone I'm 60% sure is scum then someone who I'm 10% sure off (not accurate numbers for this particualr case, it's just to make a point).

[Bartozio]

Alright Michelaar, I've reread your posts, and about half of them were about defending yourself without adding anything to the overall discussion, while a good portion of the ones that did add something was still mostly centered about defending yourself. I'll admit you weren't heavily pressed for all your contributions though (although you were still asked for most of them, but whatever).

My opinion about you hasn't really changed, so I'm sticking to my vote untill I suspect someone else more.

[Faerie Knight]

3 hours ago, Refa said:

Fair enough on Elie (reread your content and you don't have any suspicions against him, just jabs really), ED1 scumread is your read on Mackc2, and yeah fair enough on your scumread on him too actually*.  It bothered me because it felt like you were putting way too much weight on something that wasn't telling IMO (and happened barely out of RVS), but it makes sense if no one else is bothering you more ATM (assuming this is what you meant when you said "nothing since looks better").

 There's a difference between asking Elie about his thoughts on Mack and your read on Mack and asking him to sheep you.

*One caveat: If none of his other posts indicate that he is cocky newb scum, then maybe he just isn't.  Reads as a contradiction where your scumread is based on him being cocky scum for one post despite literally none of his other posts giving you that impression

Okay, and I see, wasn't sure why you specified ED1 but I get it.  And yes, nobody is bothering me more, but I'm keeping my vote for more than just one post as I've said?  Also, said post was made far from barely out of RVS, otherwise that point obviously doesn't exist at all.

Yes, there's a difference, but I didn't ask him to sheep me? "Will you vote X?" ≠ "Please vote X/Vote with me"

2 hours ago, Michelaar said:

Elieson and FK... half the time I have no idea what they are talking about and it gets me confused. That's why they're neutral for me.

So ask? Which parts confuse you? Just saying you don't understand things is arguably worse than actively misreading them. I can't answer a vague "half the time I have no idea what they are talking about", what does this get either of us?

2 hours ago, Green Poet said:

tbh I'm not getting a sense that FK is hunting for scum moreso than for people who try to find fault with his cases, as though those people are lying scum because they're arguing like they're purposely not getting his logic. Stuff like "if you understand X, why are you still doing Y? If I were X, why would I do Y?" is just filler - arriving at the answer and winning the argument wouldn't/hasn't helped find scum. The arguments are over things like the fundamentals of playing the game, why playing a certain way is better, etc... Passionate town could have the same reactions but I'm not inclined to believe that's the case here. After some pages of arguing the only person I can tell FK is fully on board to lynch is still Mack, a vote he had from the start of the game, as though he didn't get any other reads out of spending that much time in back-and-forths with BBM/Refa/Elie, or wasn't trying to from the beginning.

Seriously, what does this accomplish? Do you even think BBM is scum?

Not sure how much I can get behind this Michelaar potential townslip, it's a stretch imo. Mich and Pika seem to be the viable wagons today and I don't think lynching Pika is as good in terms of interactions due to his inactivity. Mich > FK > Pika >>> Bartozio > everyone else. Not interested in lynching Prims anymore, as his last post casing Pika partially in response to acknowledging Mich's potential townslip was good (even though as I said, I don't buy it as much myself).

Is "someone arguing like they;re purposefully not getting his logic" a bad reason to pressure someone? I don't see where you get that understanding of the argument from, it can be summarized as three things: 1. Arguing my vote on Mack/why I didn't see any of the other weak votes as that suspicious. 2. My back-and-forth with Elie and the idea that I had actively tried to stop it relatively quickly versus my keeping going with the current argument. 3. The use of FOS, how I used it, and whether I actually suspected Elie. Out of those, 3 is the most irrelevant, but then why do you think I really started to get frustrated when it got to that? And so what even if my reads didn't change? Am I supposed to regret challenging a bad push and arguing someone seemingly being intentionally obtuse and not trying to follow just because that didn't lead to a scum catch? Idk, I kinda value being properly understood and not letting misreadings slide.

You can't tell the point? A question, then, do you think the way BBM backed off me looks good or not?

Unrelated, but I'm not sure I understand, are you calling Prim's case on Pika good or just that he made a case on someone else after backing off Michelaar, and if the former, why does Pika's lack of interactions outweigh that? Are you saying the cases on Michelaar and me are stronger for you as well?

36 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

His reasoning for voting Marc feels like refusing to let go his feeling on one post.

Do you really think that's all it is?

Anyway, Pika's return is good enough to make me more willing to pick Michelaar over him if it comes down to that. My vote is staying otherwise, however, still nothing impressive from Mack

[Michelaar]

@Faerie Knight It's more a case of 'you're saying so much I have trouble understanding you' type situation.

[Bartozio]

13 minutes ago, Faerie Knight said:

Do you really think that's all it is?

To be fair, it might be a bit more then one post, but I do feel like you're suspecting him only for how he handled his vote on Elieson yes. Most of your arguments say: "I didn't like what he did there, and nothing after has convinced me I'm wrong" to me.

After rereading your posts, it seems you also suspect him for voting BBM, which felt like a joke vote to me. I'll admit you're reasoning is a bit more sound then I initially gave it credit for, but I still don't suspect him that much.

[Faerie Knight]

7 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

To be fair, it might be a bit more then one post, but I do feel like you're suspecting him only for how he handled his vote on Elieson yes. Most of your arguments say: "I didn't like what he did there, and nothing after has convinced me I'm wrong" to me.

After rereading your posts, it seems you also suspect him for voting BBM, which felt like a joke vote to me. I'll admit you're reasoning is a bit more sound then I initially gave it credit for, but I still don't suspect him that much.

It's that nothing after was any less suspicious, but yes. And his recent one/two-line opinions list is not worth much either.

I've talked about the joke vote thought, but okay.

[Pika_pika42]

Ok as I promised the second part of my reads list

Junk: Slight town read, I like the way they are evaluating different possibilities, generating discussion, forming reads and asking relevant questions.

Oboro Garasu: Null read mostly but on the verge of turning to a slight town read based on their further posts. They are mainly targeting Michelaar as they don't like their random vote and their overall defensive playstyle. Defensive of Green Poet. Urges inactives to post more. While all this is not totally alignment indicative, it can be said to be little helpful towards town.

Refa: Town read. Expressed their opinions on various issues, asked a lot of questions especially regarding people's reasons for voting someone over the other and provided their reads list. I agree with most of their reads except a few.

Green Poet: Null read to slight scum read. Their main case is on Michelaar against the random votes and their defensive play. Also state that Michelaar is playing to their scum meta. I am a bit confused regarding why they expressed their opinion on Prims and then changed it and expressed a contrasting opinion.

Faerie Knight: Null read to slight scum read. I don't like the way they voted against Mackc2 without reason and then explained that they wanted to see Mackc2 react to said vote, when in fact, there was nothing much to react to. Their discussion with Elieson seemed pretty neutral but I don't like the way they ended it and asked Elieson to vote against Mackc2 with them. 

BBM: Slight town read. They are making an effort to read every player and discussing and asking questions and voting, where necessary to help them form their reads. Also expressing their thoughts on other players as well as the current state of the game. Overall, good posts. I would like to see their reads list, I am sure they must have made a good one.

Based on my above reads list, I would like to ##Vote: Faerie Knight for now.

[Faerie Knight]

@Pika_pika42 If that wagon doesn't build, and I honestly doubt it will, would you vote Michelaar over yourself? 

[Pika_pika42]

At this point of time, I think that would be a choice between 2 townies. I know I am town and I think Michelaar is town too. So I would rather get myself lynched than putting another townie in Lynch danger.

[BBM]

Pika, you should claim your role. There are less than 2 hours in the phase.

this goes to you, but also, Mack, Michelaar, and Bartozio- your town and nullreads aren't really important unless they're being pressured by other people. Writing up reads on them is a waste of everyone's time including yours. Spend more time on the people you actually find suspicious and try to dig deeper on them as opposed to just giving one or two lines on everybody.

also your logic is wrong because from your perspective, you know you're town and only think Michelaar is town, so the chances of a townie getting lynched go down if Michelaar gets lynched as opposed to you.

FK, do you think I'm suspicious? You keep asking other people about their reads on me and whether what I did is bad, and one of the most important parts of your content is the way someone voted me, but you still haven't given a single opinion on me yourself.

Bartozio, how much mafia have you played before?

[Pika_pika42]

Ok. I am the Messenger Owl. Each night, I can send a message to anyone through the Hosts.

I don't really know how to play with this role so it's kind of wasted in my hands, that's why I don't mind being lynched.

[Bartozio]

10 minutes ago, BBM said:

Bartozio, how much mafia have you played before?

I've played a cardgame with similar rules, and that's it. I've never played mafia on forums before, so I'm trying to fill the gap with what I see and learn here and logic.

[BBM]

I went through and read some of the listposts and I feel like Mack's points don't really make sense?

The one on Marth is especially bizarre because Marth is one of the biggest tunnelers in the game right now so I can't see how someone could come to the opinion that he's giving opinions on everyone as opposed to specifically going after one person. The bit on Prims about "may as well kill them if they're not useful" seems odd to mention specifically in relation to Prims when I know off the top of my head GP and FK said similar things and I'm sure other people did too.

The bit about Junko is also weird because 1) scum!Junko could still defend both town!Elie and town!FK; scum don't say every non-scum person is scum and every scum person is town or it would be pretty obvious who the other scum were if they ever died, 2) he thinks Elie is suspicious so even if he does believe that scum!Junko wouldn't defend town!Elie, so what, Junko and Elie being scum together makes sense through his reads.

what are the votals?

[BBM]

Votals

pika_pika42 (5): Magnificence Incarnate, Prims, Michelaar, BBM, Refa

Michelaar (4): Oboro-garasu, Green Poet, Bartozio, Junk
Faerie Knight (2): Elieson, pika_pika42
Mackc2 (1): Faerie Knight
Elieson (1): Mackc2

Not voting (0)

39 minutes left in the phase?

[BBM]

sigh courier. it could easily be a mod addition to a role for an easy fake, but I see no scum motive for Pika to not vote Michelaar right now to tie the wagons

that being said I also don't particularly want to lynch Michelaar either

is anyone else around?

[Refa]

just woke up.  how much time is left and did anything important happen

[BBM]

30 minutes to phase end, Pika claimed Courier, wagons are 5-4 Pika-Michelaar

[Kriemhild]

So many posts... why is D1 always so active!?

Looking back at Pika's waffle post, I do agree that it looks really terrible. "Looking so scummy that they're actually Town" makes no sense to me... I can understand the inverse (looking so Townish that they're actually Scum) but seriously, what? It really feels like newbscum trying to avoid drawing attention, as opposed to newbscum not knowing what to do. Their recent posts seem neutral, and I'm unsure about how to deal with the Courier claim. Sure, it's a verifiable role, but one that I don't consider to be inherently Town-sided. I would not mind lynching Pika today.

Faerie Knight still bothers me, but now it feels more like they simply have a tendency to make mountains out of molehills because I can't really see the scum intent in continuing to drag out these fights.

Mack and Bartozio seem to be putting in more effort, which is good, and I do feel like Bartozio is being newbtown. Still unsure about Mack, but at least they're trying.

I would still prefer to lynch Michelaar over Pika and it would be nice if Michelaar pops in soon for a claim. I feel like Michelaar's alignment would be more useful with respect to associative reads as well.