Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Bartozio]

I'm around. I'm thinking it could be intresting to tell Pika to message a specific person to test his role?

If the person checking claims to have not had a message, we have found a scum (either Pika or the person checking), and if he did get a message they have the same allignment. Thoughts?

[Kriemhild]

I should also reread Blues/Marth because from their playstyle feels slightly off to me. Maybe it's just because I haven't played in a long time, but the other experienced players don't seem to bother me as much.

[Refa]

Still reading through posts but courier claim is NAI.  Did the mods ever mention what happens if there's a no lynch?  I tried checking the OP but couldn't find anything.

1 minute ago, Bartozio said:

I'm around. I'm thinking it could be intresting to tell Pika to message a specific person to test his role?

If the person checking claims to have not had a message, we have found a scum (either Pika or the person checking), and if he did get a message they have the same allignment. Thoughts?

There's no reason to lie about a courier claim considering how easily provable it is.

[Refa]

*replace no lynch with tied lynch.  It says there must be a lynch for Day 1, so I don't get how that would resolve.

[BBM]

I'm not sure what would happen for a tied vote, I'm guessing the mods didn't consider it. but it doesn't technically say we need a lynch for D1 does it? just says that person with most votes gets lynched without a hammer

I'm leaning towards switching to Michelaar

[Refa]

can you explain why while i parse through his posts

[BBM]

YOLO

##Unvote, ##Vote: Michelaar

I think this is somewhat more likely to be scum than Pika, which pretty much sucks because Pika was like my last strong-ish scumread before going to bed last night. But rolling over to get lynched on D1 when it would be incredibly easy to vote Michelaar and nobody would blame him for doing so to a) save himself at deadline and b) since he expressed suspicion of Michelaar earlier. Only plausible explanation for scum!Pika to do this is if he and Michelaar are both scum, in which case this is still good.

[BBM]

it's technically possible Pika is WIFOMing but I don't think he's not experienced enough to try that and it's an unnecessary way to avoid the lynch when just voting Michelaar is so much easier

[Refa]

4 minutes ago, BBM said:

it's technically possible Pika is WIFOMing but I don't think he's not experienced enough to try that and it's an unnecessary way to avoid the lynch when just voting Michelaar is so much easier

Yeah, I don't see Pika being scum at this point.  He'd have to be suicidal to not vote his counterwagon as scum, and I don't think he's crazy enough to WIFOM it away.  I still think Michelaar is going to flip though considering I can't see how he'd make that slip as scum. ;/

[Refa]

town, though even

[Shinori]

Phase end! No posting.

[Shinori]

Votals

Michelaar (5): Oboro-garasu, Green Poet, Bartozio, Junk, BBM
pika_pika42 (4): Magnificence Incarnate, Prims, Michelaar, Refa
Faerie Knight (1): Elieson
Green Poet (1): Refa
Mackc2 (1): Faerie Knight
Elieson (1): Mackc2

Not voting (1): pika_pika42

With that Michelaar has been lynched!  He was:

 

 

Quote

Dear Michelaar, you are Loki, the Trickster.

You are the mysterious being that appeared in the Tempest Trials. Not much is known about you, but you're surely evil, right? But you do look kind of like Anna, so maybe not? Either way, you work with Veronica so you're likely up to no good.

Because no one knows your true identity or alignment and usually take on Anna's appearance, you appear to be aligned with Askr. Thus, on any inspection reports you would show up as being aligned with Askr.

Each night, you may respond to your role PM with "That's a nice role you have there <USER>, I'll be taking it!" You will copy <USER>'s role and be able to use it on a future night. There are some roles in the game that cannot be copied, so be warned. In short, you are the godfather copier.

You are aligned with Embla. You win when all enemies of Embla have been eliminated.

 

With that Night 1 starts now. Night 1 ends in 24 hours~  Tomorrow at 3 PM CST.  Please do not forget to send in role actions.

 

Edited October 4, 2017 by Shinori

[Sunwoo]

A friendly reminder to all players to submit their night actions before the end of N1, which should be a little over 12 hours. If you intend to idle, please say so in your role PM.

[Green Poet]

##Pseudovote: Refa

Refa was the first to notice Michelaar's townslip. This is scummy because the "townslip" was almost certainly a gambit that a buddy was assigned to point out. Refa bought into this slip seemingly completely, and continued to remind people throughout his following posts to get it circulating.

This is a scum post. "I don't think Michelaar is a good enough actor to act is if he thought there was an N0 beforehand (even if a scumbuddy told him)."

That's scum logic. A townslip only works because you can't make the statement as scum. If Refa actually believed Michelaar couldn't fake this "even if a scumbuddy told him," it's NAI and not a townslip at all, meaning this is an argument adjusted to fit the "townread" that Refa had on Michelaar from the start. This parenthetical also points to Refa trying to discourage people from thinking it could have been organized in scumchat if Michelaar were still to be lynched yesterday.

[Green Poet]

Reminder for those with actions, phase ends in 10 mins!

[Sunwoo]

Phase end! No more talking!

Give Shinori and me a bit to sort out night actions.

[Shinori]

You all gather in the morning to find one of your own dead.  It was Prims, he was:

Quote

 

Dear Prims, you are Olwen, the Blue Mage Knight.

You have the interesting honor of being added to Fire Emblem Heroes as a playable unit before the actual lord of the game. Despite being the only playable character from Thracia 776 in the game, you've been overshadowed by your brother in Heroes infamy since you are 5-star locked and harder to get, and because your strength is too low to use Dire Thunder properly.

You know that your brother, Reinhardt, is _____.  You may chat with him here _____.

You are aligned with Askr. You win when all enemies of Askr have been eliminated.

 

 

 

 

With that there are now 11 remaining people alive.

Day 2 has officially started, day 2 ends in 72 hours, Sunday at 4 PM CST.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20171008T16&p0=3704&msg=Day+2+end+time.&font=cursive&csz=1

With 11 alive it takes 6 to Hammer.

Edited October 5, 2017 by Shinori

[Refa]

I've never been more happy to be wrong.  Well, wrong about his alignment anyways.  There's no way in hell that slip was faked all things considered, so I'm kind of baffled as to how he ended up thinking there was an N0.  Anyways, on to the wagon analysis.

On 10/4/2017 at 0:19 PM, Shinori said:

Votals

Michelaar (5): Oboro-garasu, Green Poet, Bartozio, Junk, BBM
pika_pika42 (4): Magnificence Incarnate, Prims, Michelaar, Refa
Faerie Knight (1): Elieson
Mackc2 (1): Faerie Knight
Elieson (1): Mackc2

Not voting (1): pika_pika42

TOWN

Junk- He had numerous opportunities to change his vote (to Pika or Marth), but stuck to his vote on Michelaar anyways.  This only makes sense as scum if either Marth or Pika are scum as well.

BBM- Last minute voteswap onto the godfather would be idiotic as scum.

Magnificence Incarnate- He definitely wouldn't ignore Michelaar as scum, he'd hard bus (and somehow look worse off for it heh).

Prims- Flipped town.

Refa- That's me.

pika_pika42- Don't see why he wouldn't vote his counterwagon as scum unless they're both scum.

 

NULL

Oboro-Garasu- His vote on Michelaar was good, but it's hard to get an associative read on that when he only made two posts interacting with the slot despite voting it all day.

Bartozio- His vote timing felt like a bandwagon, but his actual reasoning was pretty okay, so I just don't know on this one.

Faerie Knight- His vote makes sense with his play throughout the day, with the only weird thing being his refusal to consolidate.  It's not scummy, it's just not very helpful to getting a read on him.

 

SCUM

Green Poet- I have two words for you: Nice bus.  Fourth vote on the wagon at the time, and then barely posted any other content until the end of the day.  Also makes the contradiction WRT making Prims her second highest scumread make way more sense, because she pretty much assumed Michelaar was scum in her first post before backtracking on that in her next post.

Mackc2- He was fencesitting throughout the entire day on both of the biggest wagons.  Das bad.

Elieson- Elieson was cool with voting Michelaar before deadline (or rather, what he thought was deadline at the time) but then changed his vote to FK and just ignored the slot.  This is what bothers me the most out of this entire analysis, because he actively ignored his own scumreads that were strong enough to lynch at deadline for.

 

##Vote: Elieson

[Elieson]

Totally flaked at the end when i found out that my apartment was basically doublecharging me for my final month before I move out, and that sucked my time away. I've got it sorted out, so I'll have some shit up later.

For the record, I was visited last night, but I don't know who by. If I was copped, thank you mysterious copper!

[Sunwoo]

Because the OP wasn't updated and I've received questions on it, Prims was a sibling. This will be properly edited into the OP as soon as possible.

[BBM]

bit busy right now but just posting to say that I can confirm Pika is a courier, not that it was really in doubt

[Green Poet]

13 minutes ago, Refa said:

There's no way in hell that slip was faked all things considered, so I'm kind of baffled as to how he ended up thinking there was an N0.

It's obvious it was. That you're sticking to this story is just digging your own grave.

15 minutes ago, Refa said:

Green Poet- I have two words for you: Nice bus.  Fourth vote on the wagon at the time, and then barely posted any other content until the end of the day.  Also makes the contradiction WRT making Prims her second highest scumread make way more sense, because she pretty much assumed Michelaar was scum in her first post before backtracking on that in her next post.

town!you would've read my Michelaar case and backed off.

This was the post that solidified my vote on Michelaar. It's a comparison of how he'd been playing exactly the same post-by-post as his scum meta in RFTF mafia from the start of the game, how his RVS vote was never removed and how he refused to clearly answer me on who was scum. Busses aren't planned from pregame, and you trying to say it is is grasping. Or you're ignoring the content of the case I had, and saying it's scummy simply because it came after others'. Scum who realized the connection between his play in these two games should have advised him to stop, not call him out on it.

There was no bus. There was only you trying to cover for Michelaar by revealing the "townslip" and trying to feed it to as many of us as you could, then abandoning it once you realized it wasn't working on enough people and he was still one of the two top wagons.

You've progressed to misrepping what I said about Prims. I notice how you went from "GP's #2 read only works when her #1 read is false/he's bussing #2," (which was right - I already addressed that saying how I realize it was confusing) to "GP backtracked on her Michelaar scumread to case Prims." Sorry, that's not the case, as the post after that was citing how Michelaar was playing to his exact scum meta, and reaffirming my Mich vote.

By choosing to ignore the near-guarantee that the townslip was faked, you're also conveniently ignoring the fact that I'm not scum because I didn't buy it. Explain to me how a scumteam decided to fake a townslip, so that a buddy could take the opportunity to not even try to save that scumbuddy? Your case makes no sense.

Consider what your case requires me to have said. "Michelaar, I noticed you're posting exactly the same way you did as scum in RF. I don't want you to change that, I want you to keep posting that way so I can coast on pressuring you. Also, I want you to say this clever townslip I wrote for you, so that so that I can not bring it up and then not save you." Yesterday's situation only makes sense if one of Mich's buddies had actually pointed out and tried to take advantage of the townslip at first, namely you, and then try to pass it off as "not actually a townslip" once he flipped, like you did.

We should lynch Refa.

[Green Poet]

Right, need to vote for real.

##Vote: Refa

[Kriemhild]

Even before I read Green Poet's post, I actually felt that Refa was pretty scummy. I don't think the "townslip" was very strong to begin with, but now we know it definitely wasn't a townslip. The fact that Refa dropped Michelaar's case so easily and proceeded to ignore it really bugged me once I saw Michelaar's flip.

Refa, I can't really make sense of your Scum Poet theory. If she was already intent on bussing, she would have been very well aware that Michelaar would likely get lynched and flip as scum. Delving into just-in-case-Michelaar-is-town analyses wouldn't make sense, unless you're suggesting that she forgot about her bussing plan, which is silly, given how hard she was pushing Michelaar and on how almost all of her notable content were related to Michelaar in some form or another. She even went as far as cite his previous game and on how he was playing to his scum meta, so yeah, it would have had to have been a really thorough and well-planned bus in which her just-in-case-Michelaar-is-town side notes would have no place in. I actually find her to be the Towniest played based on Michelaar's flip.

I also don't get how you're so confident that "there's no way in hell" that the townslip was faked. Michelaar flipped scum, and I highly doubt that scum would mistakenly think there was a N0. The most likely possibility I can see is that Michelaar was faking it, either out of their own will or from a scumbuddy's suggestion. I'm not denying the possibility that Michelaar was genuinely mistaken, but I really can't see how you could be so confident (that there's "no way in hell") that the townslip wasn't faked.

And if the townslip was faked, then you, Refa, either took the bait and fell for the trap, or you played along with it to try to save Michelaar. I'm not discounting the former possibility, but the fact that you're adamant on rejecting it bothers me, and further strengthens my scumread on you.

##Vote: Refa

I don't get your case on Elieson btw. I looked back at the point where he shifted his vote to FK and it seems very clear that Elieson mistakenly thought that D1 would end early on a hammer, which is why he unvoted Michelaar (who was at L-1 at the time) and shifted to FK. I can't see anything in his posts that indicate that he thought deadline was early; he didn't react to Shinori's mistaken time declaration, but he reacted to Shinori's correction in a manner that definitely indicated avoiding a hammer (" We don't need to hammer away an entire phase"). Under the assumption that phase would end on a hammer, it makes perfect sense to unvote a player at L-1 and try spending the next few hours in reading other players instead of going back to the player that you actually want lynched.

[Mackc2]

58 minutes ago, Refa said:

pika_pika42- Don't see why he wouldn't vote his counterwagon as scum unless they're both scum.

Mackc2- He was fencesitting throughout the entire day on both of the biggest wagons.  Das bad.

Michelaar was the godfather though so it would be logical for scum to avoid voting him.

25 minutes ago, BBM said:

bit busy right now but just posting to say that I can confirm Pika is a courier, not that it was really in doubt

However I don't think BBM is scum because a godfather vote would be illogical if he where, meaning this claim is more than likely legit and both him and pika are clear. 

So following that logic that pika is town if I where scum like you claim I would jump straight onto that pika wagon to make sure that a townie got lynched instead of the godfather, say perhaps exactly like you did. 

On 05/10/2017 at 4:59 AM, Refa said:

Yeah, I don't see Pika being scum at this point.  He'd have to be suicidal to not vote his counterwagon as scum, and I don't think he's crazy enough to WIFOM it away.  I still think Michelaar is going to flip though considering I can't see how he'd make that slip as scum. ;/

Here you even admitted you don't believe pika is scum yet you did not adjust your votes. What say you in your defence?

##Vote: Refa