Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Kriemhild]

I agree that Pika is Townish, but not because of the absence of a Michelaar vote. Scum!Pika implies that Pika voting for Michelaar would be a conscious decision to bus, and perhaps it was the case that Pika simply didn't want to bus their scumbuddy (I can see a newb being hesitant about it), or perhaps Pika (or the scumteam as a whole) decided it was better to sacrifice Pika instead of Michelaar (possibly due to activity or role reasons; godfathers are pretty great). That being said, I find it unlikely that the two biggest wagons were both on scum, so I'm inclined to think Pika is Town.

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I agree that Pika is Townish, but not because of the absence of a Michelaar vote. Scum!Pika implies that Pika voting for Michelaar would be a conscious decision to bus, and perhaps it was the case that Pika simply didn't want to bus their scumbuddy (I can see a newb being hesitant about it), or perhaps Pika (or the scumteam as a whole) decided it was better to sacrifice Pika instead of Michelaar (possibly due to activity or role reasons; godfathers are pretty great). That being said, I find it unlikely that the two biggest wagons were both on scum, so I'm inclined to think Pika is Town.

My only problem with that is BBM's confirmation of pika's Courier role, this could easily be explained away if BBM is mafia however if he was then his godfather vote makes no sense especially if the rest of the mafia had decided Pika gets the noose it would be more in his favour to keep it a tie if he where scum, so for now I think both BBM and Pika are town 

[Kriemhild]

2 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

My only problem with that is BBM's confirmation of pika's Courier role, this could easily be explained away if BBM is mafia however if he was then his godfather vote makes no sense especially if the rest of the mafia had decided Pika gets the noose it would be more in his favour to keep it a tie if he where scum, so for now I think both BBM and Pika are town 

Courier is not alignment indicative. Pika could very easily be a Mafia Courier. If the Mafia decided that Pika gets the noose, I'm not seeing how it would be in their favor for Pika to keep the vote a tie. We don't know what happens in a tie (I don't recall the mods ever clarifying this?) and there was always the possibility that a tie would lead to a RNG lynch, which might kill Michelaar instead. So Pika may have accepted the noose, and showed no signs of resistance (i.e. didn't vote for Michelaar).

Note, I do still think Pika is Town, but I don't think the absence of the Michelaar vote is alignment indicative at all. And BBM confirming Pika's role means nothing because a) Courier is not alignment indicative, and b) even if Pika is Town, Scum!BBM would definitely still confirm the Courier role regardless.

[Bartozio]

I think the main thing was that Elie never changed his vote back to Michelaar? His reaction is good enough though.

I'm quite tired right now, so I'll just write down my first thoughts for now and analyze things better tomorow:

BBM is almost certainly town. Changing his vote last minute makes little sense otherwise. That would also make Pika the courier, which I think immedeatly implies he's also town?

I can see the reasoning for Refa being scum, so I'm inclined to agree with it for now. Since I don't find anyone else super suspicious for now:

##Vote: Refa

7 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I agree that Pika is Townish, but not because of the absence of a Michelaar vote. Scum!Pika implies that Pika voting for Michelaar would be a conscious decision to bus, and perhaps it was the case that Pika simply didn't want to bus their scumbuddy (I can see a newb being hesitant about it), or perhaps Pika (or the scumteam as a whole) decided it was better to sacrifice Pika instead of Michelaar (possibly due to activity or role reasons; godfathers are pretty great). That being said, I find it unlikely that the two biggest wagons were both on scum, so I'm inclined to think Pika is Town.

I agree with your reasoning that Pika not voting Michelaar doesn't say much, but assuming Pika is not scum because he was the target of a wagon sounds very weird to me.

2 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Courier is not alignment indicative. Pika could very easily be a Mafia Courier. If the Mafia decided that Pika gets the noose, I'm not seeing how it would be in their favor for Pika to keep the vote a tie. We don't know what happens in a tie (I don't recall the mods ever clarifying this?) and there was always the possibility that a tie would lead to a RNG lynch, which might kill Michelaar instead. So Pika may have accepted the noose, and showed no signs of resistance (i.e. didn't vote for Michelaar).

Note, I do still think Pika is Town, but I don't think the absence of the Michelaar vote is alignment indicative at all. And BBM confirming Pika's role means nothing because a) Courier is not alignment indicative, and b) even if Pika is Town, Scum!BBM would definitely still confirm the Courier role regardless.

Scrap my read on Pika being a townie then. For the b) part: what is your current read on BBM then? since if you read him as a towny this is pretty irrelevant (untill that thought changes of course).

[Faerie Knight]

1 hour ago, Refa said:

Faerie Knight- His vote makes sense with his play throughout the day, with the only weird thing being his refusal to consolidate.  It's not scummy, it's just not very helpful to getting a read on him.

Nah. What if i'm scum that tried to stick to a weak townie/bussable teammate and avoided consolidating to not have to lynch the Godfather/Role Thief or look bad, if/when they flipped? While taking the time to just say they'd vote Michelaar ahead if necessary?

I genuinely felt Mack was worse, of course, and ended up busy and was still typing a post at phase end, but I don't like this read. My vote makes sense with my play, not on its own merits? My refusal to consolidate just doesn't help to read me, it can't be seen as my being stubborn/confident town or scum trying to avoid the wagons?

1 hour ago, Refa said:

Mackc2- He was fencesitting throughout the entire day on both of the biggest wagons.  Das bad.

This is wrong too, he took (weak) stances on both players and had both as town when he could easily have joined the wagon on Pika. And why is it fencesitting with him but a NAI refusal to consolidate with me?

Refa's 4/6 of the way to Maj as I finish typing this, so I'll hold back, but I wouldn't mind that lynch today pending how he responds.

Actually unsure about voting Mack now.

 

[Sunwoo]

Votals

Refa (4): Green Poet, Oboro-garasu, Mack2, Bartozio
Elieson (1): Refa

Not voting: everyone else

Holler if the votals are wrong.

You need a hammer to lynch. To hammer, you need 6 votes.

[Kriemhild]

Regarding my read on BBM, my pre-D2 notes indicate that I had a bad feeling about him but I had a busy day and can't recall the exact reasons why. I don't think the final vote switch to Michelaar was indicative at all, because voting for Michelaar was the obvious definite choice to make even if it meant bussing your scumbuddy. Either way, I don't have a strong read on BBM but I might reread his posts later to try figuring out what bothered me about him.

[Sunwoo]

Phase pause! Something has happened!

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Green Poet said:

It's obvious it was. That you're sticking to this story is just digging your own grave.

town!you would've read my Michelaar case and backed off.

This was the post that solidified my vote on Michelaar. It's a comparison of how he'd been playing exactly the same post-by-post as his scum meta in RFTF mafia from the start of the game, how his RVS vote was never removed and how he refused to clearly answer me on who was scum. Busses aren't planned from pregame, and you trying to say it is is grasping. Or you're ignoring the content of the case I had, and saying it's scummy simply because it came after others'. Scum who realized the connection between his play in these two games should have advised him to stop, not call him out on it.

There was no bus. There was only you trying to cover for Michelaar by revealing the "townslip" and trying to feed it to as many of us as you could, then abandoning it once you realized it wasn't working on enough people and he was still one of the two top wagons.

You've progressed to misrepping what I said about Prims. I notice how you went from "GP's #2 read only works when her #1 read is false/he's bussing #2," (which was right - I already addressed that saying how I realize it was confusing) to "GP backtracked on her Michelaar scumread to case Prims." Sorry, that's not the case, as the post after that was citing how Michelaar was playing to his exact scum meta, and reaffirming my Mich vote.

By choosing to ignore the near-guarantee that the townslip was faked, you're also conveniently ignoring the fact that I'm not scum because I didn't buy it. Explain to me how a scumteam decided to fake a townslip, so that a buddy could take the opportunity to not even try to save that scumbuddy? Your case makes no sense.

Consider what your case requires me to have said. "Michelaar, I noticed you're posting exactly the same way you did as scum in RF. I don't want you to change that, I want you to keep posting that way so I can coast on pressuring you. Also, I want you to say this clever townslip I wrote for you, so that so that I can not bring it up and then not save you." Yesterday's situation only makes sense if one of Mich's buddies had actually pointed out and tried to take advantage of the townslip at first, namely you, and then try to pass it off as "not actually a townslip" once he flipped, like you did.

We should lynch Refa.

Look at it in context.  For that to have been faked, a scumbuddy would have had to told him to react to Elie's post in a specific way and he would have had to make that post in the span of 45 minutes.  Faked slips are planned, and this obviously wasn't.  The only way that it could be faked would be if Elie/him coordinated it, but there's no reason for Elie to fake a scumslip when he thinks the phase is ending in a few hours (or anyone, for that matter).

Nothing in my post implied that your bus was pregammed.  What bothered me about the meta read is that you looked up his scum meta but not his town meta, despite several people asking you for an example of such.  If you were genuinely trying to metaread him, you would have done both.

Me abandoning the townslip is bullshit lol.

It's not a misrep because I'm saying the exact same thing (or at least, that was my intention).

I don't believe the town slip was faked to begin with.  Your next two points against me only hold merit if I'm saying that the townslipped was faked and then contradicting my own read, which obviously is not the case.

5 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Even before I read Green Poet's post, I actually felt that Refa was pretty scummy. I don't think the "townslip" was very strong to begin with, but now we know it definitely wasn't a townslip. The fact that Refa dropped Michelaar's case so easily and proceeded to ignore it really bugged me once I saw Michelaar's flip.

Refa, I can't really make sense of your Scum Poet theory. If she was already intent on bussing, she would have been very well aware that Michelaar would likely get lynched and flip as scum. Delving into just-in-case-Michelaar-is-town analyses wouldn't make sense, unless you're suggesting that she forgot about her bussing plan, which is silly, given how hard she was pushing Michelaar and on how almost all of her notable content were related to Michelaar in some form or another. She even went as far as cite his previous game and on how he was playing to his scum meta, so yeah, it would have had to have been a really thorough and well-planned bus in which her just-in-case-Michelaar-is-town side notes would have no place in. I actually find her to be the Towniest played based on Michelaar's flip.

I also don't get how you're so confident that "there's no way in hell" that the townslip was faked. Michelaar flipped scum, and I highly doubt that scum would mistakenly think there was a N0. The most likely possibility I can see is that Michelaar was faking it, either out of their own will or from a scumbuddy's suggestion. I'm not denying the possibility that Michelaar was genuinely mistaken, but I really can't see how you could be so confident (that there's "no way in hell") that the townslip wasn't faked.

And if the townslip was faked, then you, Refa, either took the bait and fell for the trap, or you played along with it to try to save Michelaar. I'm not discounting the former possibility, but the fact that you're adamant on rejecting it bothers me, and further strengthens my scumread on you.

##Vote: Refa

I don't get your case on Elieson btw. I looked back at the point where he shifted his vote to FK and it seems very clear that Elieson mistakenly thought that D1 would end early on a hammer, which is why he unvoted Michelaar (who was at L-1 at the time) and shifted to FK. I can't see anything in his posts that indicate that he thought deadline was early; he didn't react to Shinori's mistaken time declaration, but he reacted to Shinori's correction in a manner that definitely indicated avoiding a hammer (" We don't need to hammer away an entire phase"). Under the assumption that phase would end on a hammer, it makes perfect sense to unvote a player at L-1 and try spending the next few hours in reading other players instead of going back to the player that you actually want lynched.

My case on Michelaar was based on his earlygame content being lackluster.  I started nullreading him because I couldn't see why he would admit to being experienced as scum, and then his town slip sealed the deal.

It makes sense that she'd delve into that because otherwise it'd be a really obvious bus ("why were you so confident that Michelaar was scum based off of a few posts).  Also again, as town I'd expect her to look into both of his metas, at least after prodded.

Read my previous response to GP.  I was confident in the town slip for a reason, and I don't get how anyone could think that it was intentionally faked TBH.

My issue with Elie isn't that he unvoted Michelaar (AFAIK, the vote was made out of consolidation), but that he never followed up on his case or commented on either of the large wagons despite clearly being there at the end.  Apparently he was busy IRL though, so it doesn't really hold anymore.

11 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

Michelaar was the godfather though so it would be logical for scum to avoid voting him.

Here you even admitted you don't believe pika is scum yet you did not adjust your votes. What say you in your defence?

##Vote: Refa

You're right, I just didn't think that one through TBH.

It was like five minutes until deadline and I was frustrated at the town/town wagons.  Unvoting wouldn't have changed anything.

6 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Courier is not alignment indicative. Pika could very easily be a Mafia Courier. If the Mafia decided that Pika gets the noose, I'm not seeing how it would be in their favor for Pika to keep the vote a tie. We don't know what happens in a tie (I don't recall the mods ever clarifying this?) and there was always the possibility that a tie would lead to a RNG lynch, which might kill Michelaar instead. So Pika may have accepted the noose, and showed no signs of resistance (i.e. didn't vote for Michelaar).

Note, I do still think Pika is Town, but I don't think the absence of the Michelaar vote is alignment indicative at all. And BBM confirming Pika's role means nothing because a) Courier is not alignment indicative, and b) even if Pika is Town, Scum!BBM would definitely still confirm the Courier role regardless.

Couldn't scum just ask the mods what happens WRT a vote tie beforehand?  I just asked Boron about it, and she said a vote tie results in a no lynch.  It'd benefit Scum!Pika to try to try and go for the tie instead of watching his buddy get lynched.

3 minutes ago, Faerie Knight said:

Nah. What if i'm scum that tried to stick to a weak townie/bussable teammate and avoided consolidating to not have to lynch the Godfather/Role Thief or look bad, if/when they flipped? While taking the time to just say they'd vote Michelaar ahead if necessary?

I genuinely felt Mack was worse, of course, and ended up busy and was still typing a post at phase end, but I don't like this read. My vote makes sense with my play, not on its own merits? My refusal to consolidate just doesn't help to read me, it can't be seen as my being stubborn/confident town or scum trying to avoid the wagons?

This is wrong too, he took (weak) stances on both players and had both as town when he could easily have joined the wagon on Pika. And why is it fencesitting with him but a NAI refusal to consolidate with me?

Refa's 4/6 of the way to Maj as I finish typing this, so I'll hold back, but I wouldn't mind that lynch today pending how he responds.

Actually unsure about voting Mack now.

I thought about that, but you were way too outspoken about your vote and having no other cases.  This would make you look bad regardless of whether or not scum got lynched, so I'm not seeing any scum intent there.

I legitimately don't get what you're saying with your second point.

It's fencesitting with him because his town reads on them were so weak that he could have easily changed them at any time.  Yeah, he could have changed his vote to Pika but it would have looked bad (unless all three of them are scum, of course).

[Sunwoo]

Votals

Refa (5): Green Poet, Oboro-garasu, Mackc2, Bartozio, Junk
Elieson (1): Refa

Refa is at L-1!

You need a hammer to lynch. To hammer, you need 6 votes.

[Sunwoo]

I will let Refa's post slide because it was ridiculously close to me calling phase pause.

Edited October 5, 2017 by Sunwoo

[Mackc2]

20 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Courier is not alignment indicative. Pika could very easily be a Mafia Courier. If the Mafia decided that Pika gets the noose, I'm not seeing how it would be in their favor for Pika to keep the vote a tie. We don't know what happens in a tie (I don't recall the mods ever clarifying this?) and there was always the possibility that a tie would lead to a RNG lynch, which might kill Michelaar instead. So Pika may have accepted the noose, and showed no signs of resistance (i.e. didn't vote for Michelaar).

I was not aware of this thanks for clarifying, I didn't even think that a tied vote would be anything but a no-lynch, so pika is back up in the air (especially since a Mafia courier would be the best bus for them) however I still think BBM is town 

[Refa]

wtf at least give me a chance to respond before hammering me

[Mackc2]

5 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Phase pause! Something has happened!

Sorry sent this as I was typing didn't notice sorry (plz don't kill me)

[Sunwoo]

Phase was un-paused as of my second post.

[Refa]

Forgot to unvote Elie.

##Unvote

##Vote: Green Poet

[BBM]

what the fuck is this Refa wagon Refa is one of the towniest people in the thread. it's much more likely that Michelaar just derped (read his in-thread play, is that really so implausible) than that Refa fed him a fake townslip to pounce on and clear his name when people weren't sure to buy it, and that two minutes before michelaar was about to flip scum he posted "YEAH BUT I THINK HE'S STILL TOWN BECAUSE OF THE TOWNSLIP" when it was just about to be revealed that the townslip was bogus

Pika is also town for reasons unrelated to his role, please read the reason why I switched votes from him to Michelaar in the first place

Junko needs to claim his role

[BBM]

or rather, Junko needs to claim whether he has the ability to ghostvote Refa or whether someone else did that for him

[Junk]

I just got told saying my vote is stuck on refa for all of day 2, think this is called a persuade? 

[Refa]

okay

what confuses me is i don't get why town would persuade someone to vote me unless they're being incredibly stupid but i don't get why scum would persuade when they could just wait for one more person to vote me and then hammer.  only reason i can think of is some sort of limitation on the scum side.

junk could just be lying and he has a ghost vote but this would be a pretty bad time and place to reveal that as scum so idt that's the case?

[Mackc2]

3 minutes ago, Junk said:

I just got told saying my vote is stuck on refa for all of day 2, think this is called a persuade? 

You where not on the first votal of the day if this is true you should be on their, unless @Sunwoo messed up 

[Sunwoo]

I'm going offline for the next 3-4 hours and I'm not sure if Shinori is online, so I will not be around to resolve host actions for a while.

[Mackc2]

Also until all this is sorted 

##unvote 

 

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

I'm going offline for the next 3-4 hours and I'm not sure if Shinori is online, so I will not be around to resolve host actions for a while.

Wait before you go can you confirm if junk is supposed to be on the first votal of not?

[BBM]

24 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Regarding my read on BBM, my pre-D2 notes indicate that I had a bad feeling about him but I had a busy day and can't recall the exact reasons why. I don't think the final vote switch to Michelaar was indicative at all, because voting for Michelaar was the obvious definite choice to make even if it meant bussing your scumbuddy. Either way, I don't have a strong read on BBM but I might reread his posts later to try figuring out what bothered me about him.

what the fuck is this logic "the definite thing to do as scum is be the sole person to flip the wagon at lynch end to the scum godfather" literally the only reason to do this is if Pika was also scum, except you don't even think he's scum. you do realize that had I not switched votes to Michelaar, Pika would have been lynched instead right? this logic is so bad I can't even call it scummy because I don't know who would be audacious enough to claim that as the "obvious definite choice".

@mack- the persuade was probably activated during the middle of the day. it's almost certain that that was what caused the phase pause

inclined to believe Junko, in which case the options are:

1. scum persuader miscounted the votes and fucked up trying to quickhammer Refa

2. one of the people who voted Refa is also a town persuader and wanted an extra vote on Refa

3. Refa is scum trying to make town think that #1 is the case. I think this is highly unlikely but since 4 of you also think that Refa engineered a fake townslip I'm including it to be complete.