Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Mackc2]

I don't think his lack of posts is enough to put a scumread on him but it definitely makes him suspicious, I only brought up Bartozio because he is exhibiting the same 'lack of effort' that pika suspects marth for and I would say the exact same thing about marth  

[Bluedoom]

I'm going to regret this I bet, but I'll explain myself if this goes right.

Above all, the mission!

 

[Sunwoo]

Phase pause!

[Sunwoo]

"As the prince of Askr, I cannot allow anyone or anything to stand in my way. I will protect this world, and all others alike!"

Marth has been revealed to be Alfonse, Prince of Askr, and aligned with Askr.

Votals
Refa (3): Green Poet, Bartozio, Junk
Green Poet (1): Refa
Elieson (1): BBM
pika_pika42 (1): Magnificence Incarnate

Not voting: everyone else

You need a hammer to lynch. Hammer is still 6 votes.

Phase un-pause.

[Pika_pika42]

11 hours ago, Shinori said:

You know that your brother, Reinhardt, is _____.  You may chat with him here _____.

Yeah they could be neighbour. Sorry I misread the above as them knowing each other's alignment.

As for Elieson, as I stated earlier he is not his usual self. He is uncharacteristic ally quiet but he excused himself for irl issues, so I am willing to give him some time.

As for the comparison between MI & Bartozio, I am assuming MI is an experienced player whereas Bartozio has said he's a new player. I would expect more contribution from an experienced player than a new one, honestly.

[Mackc2]

well then

[Bluedoom]

Hosts made an error with my role which would make it look like a fake. Wasn't interested in defending myself like I did on Sunday for 4 hours and my activity my plummet for a bit but in any case, I'm as good as dead but can talk in-thread.

[Pika_pika42]

Well that was confusing.

##Unvote

 

[Mackc2]

you couldnt talk in thread before? As far as I'm aware your only ability is to prove that your town, I wouldnt exactly call it a power role that will guarantee your death

[Bluedoom]

I could but I had another part to my role that's gone, and I don't plan on claiming it unless its a dire situation.

[Bluedoom]

Mack, can you summarize your refa case for me?

[Mackc2]

I have like three minutes until I need to go so quick summary, I believe refa is sus because their vote on pika would be an action pro mafia, him pointing out the godfathers 'townslip' becoming sus in the light of the reveal and the persuade which i can assume was to make him look less suspicions by making him appear like a mafia lynch target those are my reasons for believing he is scum 

[Mackc2]

I will be back in about 3 hours

[Refa]

9 hours ago, Faerie Knight said:

About my vote? I'm saying that it seems you're saying my vote makes sense in the context of my play, what about the reasoning? It's just a strange thing to say about it tbh, doesn't the reasoning/basis of a vote matter more than if it fits in the context of someone's play, whatever exactly that means?

True. But why? He gave his town read before Pika came back and there still were people scumreading him, why would it have looked bad for Mack to vote along with them then? Even then, his town read on Pika was even shallower, I don't see why scum wouldn't have gone along with that wagon and tried to get it ahead of the one on what was almost certainly their strongest role.

When I say your vote, it implies the reasoning behind your vote as well.  Anyways, my point was "I could see you making this vote as town" but there wasn't anything stronger to suggest that you were town, hence the null read.

Not wanting to commit to a counterwagon but also not really fighting against it.  At the time, it seemed like Pika would get lynched anyways, so I doubt scum felt the need to jump on to the wagon when it'd make them look bad later on anyways.

8 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

He voted for Elieson, with no reference to the actual townslip incident in which Michelaar was replying to Elieson; was it two scumbuddies discussing about Mack when one of them "townslipped" and the other proceeded to completely ignore the townslip? But no, Refa proceeded to ignore it, confidently declared the townslip as being fake, and dismissed it as if it were completely irrelevant to any productive discussion.

This is untrue, I already explained why Scum!Elieson wouldn't benefit from faking a townslip because he thought phase ended in five hours (and if he didn't think that, then he wouldn't have voted Michelaar and risked his buddy getting hammered).  And I don't see why I should be receptive to GP's case on me when the default assumption is that I faked the townslip and ignores most of my content in favour of nitpicking that.

7 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

I agree that bartozio is acting suspicious however currently there is more evidence that suggests refa is mafia.

I am bringing my vote back, the reason for these being firstly that his actions in voting pika would benefit mafia and his only defence against this point was that it was a bad play, which while plausible is not convincing. 

Secondly the way I see it the persuasion could either be a noob play which I find unlikely, a ploy to draw attention from refa which would suggest he is mafia or a frame based on the previous assumption to make him appear as mafia, which I really don't think anyone would employ.

The third of these and the one I find least convincing is Refa pointing out the godfathers 'townslip' which for the record I don't think that was engineered I think refa just found it and decided to work with it to make a case to protect the godfather.

Thus #vote: Refa 

 

1) It wouldn't benefit me to leave my vote on Pika as mafia with a few minutes remaining.

2) How would a persuader voting me draw attention away from me?  If anything, it puts MORE attention on me.

3) I don't get how this makes me scum, other than "I want Refa to be scum".

7 hours ago, BBM said:

Also while I didn't like GP's pseudo-case on Prims, she dropped it afterwards closer to phase end and had some pretty good points about FK (even if I changed my mind about him). So I will agree with GP that Refa's case on her isn't great; I feel like it's kind of outdated and that Refa needs to read her later posts again.

Read through GP's posts again and here's what I got out of it:

-Read through her early posts and it still bothers me.  The interactions with him were way too sparse to be telling (and he seems strangely okay with her voting him, even though he was complaining about Proto's vote on him a few pages back), and she didn't actually read his past game until AFTER the Prims scumread (so whatever Proto said about her having to contradict herself to be scum is wrong).  What I was wrong about is that nothing here points towards it being a bus.

-Admittedly I forgot about her Page 8 post.  Her reads on Bartozio/FK are good, and yeah she did more than just tunnel on Michelaar.  So she's...probably null for me.  I still don't like her earlier content on its own merits, and it's hard for me to get a read on her today when her content has been VOTE REFA.

##Unvote

7 hours ago, BBM said:

mack has bad opinions but his tone throughout today's Refa shenanigans reads townie, especially the confusion about the day persuade (I think it's exceedingly likely that the persuader is scum, regardless of Refa's alignment)

Would sheep the Mack2 read.

Too lazy to quote your Elie read, but 1) I agree about the Michelaar interactions and 2) I'm not really getting anything out of his interactions with FK.  It was definitely forced but I don't get why he'd be more likely to make a forced post as scum.  Not sure what my thoughts on Elie are because I was super sure that he was just avoiding giving opinions on Michelaar (see him making a post close to the end of Day 1 before disappearing) and then the next day it turns out he didn't post because of IRL issues.  Definitely need more posts from him.

2 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Hosts made an error with my role which would make it look like a fake. Wasn't interested in defending myself like I did on Sunday for 4 hours and my activity my plummet for a bit but in any case, I'm as good as dead but can talk in-thread.

Was townreading you anyways, so this doesn't really change much on my end haha.  Who else are you bothered by besides Bartozio?

2 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

I have like three minutes until I need to go so quick summary, I believe refa is sus because their vote on pika would be an action pro mafia, him pointing out the godfathers 'townslip' becoming sus in the light of the reveal and the persuade which i can assume was to make him look less suspicions by making him appear like a mafia lynch target those are my reasons for believing he is scum 

1) Me voting Pika obviously isn't inherently suspicious.  What was wrong with my Pika vote?

2) As scum, persuading a vote onto me (especially of someone who hadn't even posted yet; it'd be better to persuade someone who would have voted me anyways) would make it likelier that I got lynched.  At worst, it's non alignment indicative (assuming I'm scum WIFOMing), but it's absolutely infuriating you're using that as a reason as to why I'm scum.  At least with me pointing out the town slip, it was based on something I've actually done.

##Vote: Bartozio

His Michelaar vote timing was bad, but the reasoning itself was okay so that part doesn't bother me.  Don't like how he agreed with the townslip being legit yesterday and still voting me despite that today.  Disagree with BBM regards to the interactions.  He complained about Bartozio being hypocritical but later on when he gave reads, he never mentioned Bartozio bothering him like with Proto.  I don't think his interactions w/Michelaar make him more likely to be scum, just that they're not telling.  Also his vote on me today is an obvious bandwagon; he doesn't even give any reasoning other than "I agree with the people voting Refa".

[Kriemhild]

I have a class soon, so I'm not really here but how the hell do I ISO? The new interface seems to be messing up my attempts...

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I have a class soon, so I'm not really here but how the hell do I ISO? The new interface seems to be messing up my attempts...

You can't.  You literally have to go by page by page and control + f the person's name (or at least that's what I did).

[Green Poet]

8 hours ago, BBM said:

GP what are your opinions about FK and other non-Refa people now? What do you think of my reason for switching away from FK?

I think Pika is town. It's likely scum tried to divert from Mich to Pika (even if it weren't Refa, or weren't just Refa, the mood of the thread noticeably shifted Pika's way) and it doesn't make sense to leave traces of this effort if Pika were also scum. Mich being suspected means he probably would've attracted N1 scans had he lived, and "cleared" scum is far more valuable than a courier!scum, barring the courier having some highly exceptional additional part of their role.

Pika's "I wanted to be lynched because I felt pretty sure that the alternative wagon was also town and a better/more contributing player than me" sentiment is one that I myself had for my first two town games. I know the feeling, and the way he expressed it feels like newb!town I'm familiar with.

8 hours ago, BBM said:

What do you think of my reason for switching away from FK?

Your reason was "scum wouldn't be this antagonistic," right? I'm not sure I agree. Scum who spend lots of time arguing get to appear invested in the game, may not get read very closely by players other than their opponent, and can distract some would-be-contributory townies. The "refuge in audacity" concept that Prims likes to cite can apply here, I think. I do think switching off FK was the practical thing to do at the time because of consolidation pressure, though.

Personally I'd like to see FK's scumreads before dropping mine of him. He said shortly after D2 started that he's not certain about voting Mack anymore, but his next two D2 posts don't go into detail about those he would be okay with voting. He's given passing acknowledgment of large wagons before without a real opinion on them ("Pika's today's lynch anyway," "I'd be okay with a Refa lynch pending his response") which are far from committal, so I really end up with no hard scumreads from him other than D1 Mack.

Townreading Proto/BBM/Mack/Pika. Marth is modconfirmed town. Null on Junko, and also Bartozio, because I'm finding it hard to get a read on his D2.

I would be fine with an Elie lynch.

On 10/3/2017 at 7:43 AM, Elieson said:

UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I'm ok with this but my gut's telling me that I should be voting for FK over Mich and if we have a role that can clear mich up that they just do it, preferably someone inspecting him with their gun if they have one.

This was immediately after he put Mich at L-1. There's hesitancy and an expressed desire to back out, as well as an attempt to look at someone else instead.

Normally one would just say "shoot Mich," but Elie took much more effort to word this suggestion to encourage investigation as well. The implication of "clearing Mich up" is curious... if not-Mich had been lynched and someone had followed Elie's suggestion N1, Mich really would have been "cleared." Scum!Elie also removes the difficulty of the Mich townslip setup that some people were concerned about, which isn't super incriminating but it's something to think about.

I don't really know what to make of the persuader use - I feel like the use was antitown even though the player may not be, and maybe they just weren't really sure how else that sort of role could be helpful/effective. I do think Refa is scum but quickhammering him less than 12 hours into phase start is categorically bad play for town (and we nearly could have - if, say Mack's L-1 vote had coincided with the phase pause). It looks to me like the persuader was trying to catch him at L-1 or otherwise promote a Refa lynch before everyone had time to talk it over, which still doesn't make much sense from a town perspective because anyone who wants Refa lynched should/could just say so and make their intentions known.

I'd say it could be worth looking into who Junko was casing, but as removing Junko's vote naturally doesn't remove his ability to case people other than Refa, I'm not sure why he in particular was chosen. Mack mentioned not doing this but imo Junko should still attempt to change his vote for the sake of information. There's no known reason not to.

Also although GP didn't post between those two times, a lot of people posted during then about her and pretty much only had that first set of posts to go off, so it feels like she was espousing the Prims case all phase because that's what everybody talked about but really she was just absent for a good chunk of it (4 pages of the thread basically).

This was due to my posting schedule, I guess. I can't commit extended sittings to playing this game, so I've been posting these walls (sorry guys) in the times I can.

Discussing "townslips" is getting wearing, but it deserves a mention that Mack expressed unfamiliarity with how the scum factional kill works on SF mafia.

Also, BBM, can I ask you who you targeted?

[Refa]

Also won't be able to post for most of the day due to finals + deliverable on a group project.  I'll be on intermittently, but that's about it.

[Mackc2]

I'm back and yeah refa I really didn't think of it that way, suppose I got a bit caught up in my excitement, anyway I'll be on for a few more hours then I won't be posting for about 12 hours 

[Bartozio]

Alright, I'm back.

I was going to say that it seemed logical to me to observe the Pika lynch train instead of the Michelaar one, but with MI's declaration that only leaves Refa who's already suspected anyway...

On the whole "fake town slip" case, I can see several things having happened. I doubt Michelaar set up the entire argument with Elie to drop a town slip, but it's possible he was adviced to do something like that and the oppurtunity just happened to come up. The other explanations are Elie being scum and helping him set things up, or it could have been an honest mistake. Refa picking up on it doesn't have much to do with it being a mistake or not. He's making a bad read or trying to save his scum buddy. The fact that he didn't change his opinion on it after several people argued against it make me find it suspicious, even though he hasn't done anything scummy besides that.

I agree with Pika that Junko trying to vote and asking for a count seems like a good idea. I don't doubt the claim, but it seems like a free check, so no reason to not do it. His vote lock feels more like a scum play to me, but it could be a townie being really sure of his case. I find it weird town would want to lock a vote this early though.

I have trouble getting a good read on Pika. I feel not voting Michelaar was a weird move as town that makes more sense as scum (to sac himself so he can safe Mich). Revealing his role beats that purpose though. I'm putting him down as town for now, as I feel the mistake as a towny sounds more believable. Courier sounds like a very useless role to me if it doesn't imply allignment, I have no idea what to do with this. Am I missing something?

Elieson also feels suspicious to me. I waved of his reasoning for not revoting Michelaar as him not having time, but he did come online to defend Pika a little after that, so he could have just voted Mich there. His conversation with Mich being a setup might be me reading to much into it, but of his contributions I recall an odd debate with FK, but with his real life stuff I blame him less for this.

That covers my suspicions for now. I'll try rereading D1 a bit more to see if I can get anything out of Prism's actions, along with seeing if things seem weird with this new information. The Reinhardt being Askr allignment would mean there's probably not a lot to read into on that part though.

[Bartozio]

1 hour ago, Refa said:

His Michelaar vote timing was bad, but the reasoning itself was okay so that part doesn't bother me.  Don't like how he agreed with the townslip being legit yesterday and still voting me despite that today. 

Missed this post just now. I didn't agree with the townslip being legit yesterday, since I said not realizing there not having been a night fase was weird for both factions. Why would I still vote him if I found the townslip legit?

[Refa]

Worded that poorly.  You said it was a decent point yesterday, but that you personally didn't agree with it.  Today, you're saying that me pointing it out makes me scum despite having no significant issue with it yesterday.

[Mackc2]

Hey @Refa I was reading over some of Bartozio's posts and what caught my eye is that him and Michellaar where arguing and both trying to call each others inactivity out at one point, I don't think scum would point out actions that are making the other seem suspicious unless it was a ploy to appear less suspicious but both of them are new players and I believe this was at the phase where pika was starting to look like he would overtake Michellaar in votes, also he stayed on Michelaar for the final vote when him swapping his vote would have thrown pika straight under that bus

[Bartozio]

Basicly, I can see someone reading it as a townslip, so it's a decent point. Certaily something to be considered.

You not changing your opinion after several people gave counter arguments and being the most suspicious person on the Pika lynch train paints a bad picture in my mind.

It's not a very strong case, but I don't have any better suspicions right now, hence my vote.

[Refa]

17 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

You not changing your opinion after several people gave counter arguments and being the most suspicious person on the Pika lynch train paints a bad picture in my mind.

It's not a very strong case, but I don't have any better suspicions right now, hence my vote.

The problem is they didn't point issues with it, just said "I don't think that's telling", which is like...okay?  I disagreed, obviously.

Fair enough on the second part.

19 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

Hey @Refa I was reading over some of Bartozio's posts and what caught my eye is that him and Michellaar where arguing and both trying to call each others inactivity out at one point, I don't think scum would point out actions that are making the other seem suspicious unless it was a ploy to appear less suspicious but both of them are new players and I believe this was at the phase where pika was starting to look like he would overtake Michellaar in votes, also he stayed on Michelaar for the final vote when him swapping his vote would have thrown pika straight under that bus

Second post is flawed because it'd make him look bad on the following day, first point is good and I didn't catch that.  It could be directed by a more experienced scum member but it seems too petty of an argument for that?

##Unvote

Don't really have any scumreads left at this point.  I'm townreading Bartozio, Pika_pika42, Mackc2, Junko, Proto, and BBM, with everyone else (Elieson, Green Poet, Faerie Knight) being null reads.  Pretty demotivated at this point because I don't even know what to look for in a reread (I've ALREADY reread all of my null reads), mafia sucks.