Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Bluedoom]

@Elieson get on here and claim please.

@Bartozio might as well out your N1 result since we are massclaiming.

[Bartozio]

Not much time right now, but I'll respond to Marth at the very least:

Refa didn't target anyone N1, so that lines up with his current claim.

I think it's reasonable to assume it was Prims' role that was responsible for that quick topic, because the only other explanations would be that it appeared out of nowhere, someone who has already claimed failed to mention being responsible for that, or Michelaar created it and failed to mention it when people were scumreading him and asking for a vigshot on him...
It's a bit odd prims couldn't talk in the topic if it was active since the start of N1, but maybe that was the payoff for recruiting multiple at once?

That would also mean Kirsche doesn't really have a safe claim as scum, because he can't fake this role without knowing who prims targeted N1.

Have to go now, I'll react to other stuff when I get back in a few hours.

 

[Refa]

1 hour ago, Bartozio said:

That would also mean Kirsche doesn't really have a safe claim as scum, because he can't fake this role without knowing who prims targeted N1.

BBM claimed who was in the QT before Kirsche claimed.  Scum!Kirsche could have claimed it, unless 1) it wasn't Prims' role 2) he thought BBM was hiding a part of it to trip him up or 3) he didn't think the claim would jive with his play beforehand (especially his suspicion on BBM).

[Refa]

Votals 3.31- Fan Edition

kirsche (3): Refa, BBM, SullyMcGully
SullyMcGully (3): Via, Bartozio, Kirsche

Not Voting (2): Elieson, Marth

There are 9 hours and 41 minutes left in the day.  With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 5 to hammer.

[Zkirsche]

Mackc and PB were basically masons so I think town can exist without an investigation role and they could not have anythign else. Since BBM is conf I'm down to lynch Bart too. Maybe Elie is scum but there is nothing to say on this slot otehr than he has disappeared.

Refa I know you don't think my posts are super townie but why am I scum? Especially over Bart/Sully?

@Sully:

Quote

Your BBM scumread is a good example of this.

What part of the BBM case though. What am I saying is wrong that is actually right? You can't say I'm desperate for stating that BBM's scumread on me is wrong.

Quote

But if I must raise a point, I would say that while you claim to have suspected him since D1, the fact that all of your actual dirt on him is from D3 is suspicious.

It was a gut feeling I had all game and I was explaining why the last few posts were scummy imo. I didn't read his D2 enough to get a good feel for it other than everything was mostly fine, but with a player like BBM everything can appear mostly fine when it isn't.

So my original case on you was desperate? Why does it sound that way?

Like, all this time you haven't explained why I'm desperate you just keep claiming I am and that makes me scum. Even though by your own admission even town gets desperate.

[Zkirsche]

Interrogator is a killing role normally but usually they can only kill the person they are interrogating and by flavour that would be PB, no?

[Elieson]

OK Subbing me in at the not-best time was not-the-best but I'm able to like genuinely try to catch up now and if it's claim time, Vanilla. 

[Refa]

Elie, I won't get on your case for this because I know you're pretty fucking busy IRL, but yeah having something out of you would be nice.

@kirsche I don't think Bart is town, and there is nothing in his recent posts that makes me feel better about him.  He is just a BAD LYNCH apparently, which is a bit frustrating when you're scumreading the guy (and if you're town, his results will mean jack shit), but I can get the logic behind it considering I am scumreading you.  As for Sully, I reread his posts and I dunno, his paranoia combined with his skepticism of the lynch combined with his fairly well laid out thought process* are fairly high level stuff for scum to fake, and I just don't see him doing that in first game, coached or not.

*I'm not saying it's always good AND I do agree that it feels like he always is glossing over a few things when he's making his cases (could be viewed as an intentional attempt to misrep, but I never really got that impression after his vote on BBM), although that could be a byproduct of how he said he does them (thinking about them outside of the game), but it does prove that he isn't just making up shit as he goes along

[Refa]

BTW, this means Marth is the only claimed protective role, so he definitely is town or GAME BLOWS (and his role makes sense w/Mackc2's claim).

So FMPOV me/Marth/BBM/Via are off the table, which leaves Elie/Kirsche/Sully/Bartozio.  I've already stated my opinion on Michelaar, but I can reevaluate my opinion based on an Elie post if I need too.  I haven't been clear about this before because I didn't think it was a serious wagon before, but I DO NOT WANT SULLY LYNCHED.  Bartozio can still be scum.

[SullyMcGully]

Don't have much time (we're preparing for our first snow and it could take a while), just wanted to say a few things. 

I'm now fairly certain that Kirsche is scum. To clear some things up, before, I simply thought he was the most likely of the current options to be scum, but now I've deduced that he almost certainly is scum, just because of the other options: 

BBM is confirmed town, unless Mackc2 somehow got that NK in on Shinori.

Marth is probably town for reasons Refa stated above.

If Refa or Via are scum, they deserve to win, because they sure do look town.

Michelaar/Elieson could be scum, but the Mich/Shinori interactions cast doubt on that.

Bartozio could be scum, but I'd need to see him post more to be certain of that.

Kirsche is not only the most likely candidate to be scum, he's one of the only. His townplay this round has been non-existent, by the way. I'd like to hear him contribute to the greater conversation some more. 

In the meantime, I shall endeavor to do the same. 

@kirsche do you still think BBM is scum? 

[SullyMcGully]

A quick little self-defense bit: if you think I'm scum and that the only reason I am somewhat competent is because I have scumbuddies helping me out, then all you have to do is lynch scum today and watch me tomorrow, when, theoretically, all my scumbuddies would be dead and I would have nobody to rely on. If I don't change between now and then, you'll know that at least that theory can be put out to pasture.

[Percivalé]

are we lynching kirsche today then

I won't be here for deadline 

[Refa]

that is what i want but it's an even 3/3 split and it'd be nice if @Elieson offered his thoughts on this!

[charlie_]

Refa's votals are correct.

7 hours and 15 minutes remain.

[BBM]

mafia is such a stupid stupid game why do I do this to myself

@Marth- I know Prims looked worse from the Ken flip but scum killed him anyways so that's not that relevant? What's relevant is that they weren't afraid of town having a protective role when they shot Mack on N2, which either means that Prims was a protective role, they just didn't think town had a legit protective role, or they have a hitman, but if Prims isn't a protective role why would they even be given a hitman? And the other thing that's relevant is that nobody has claimed the role that creates the neighbourhood, so either that's Prims or the neighbourhood is intrinsically part of the setup but I can't think of why SB would be like "let's put the vig in a neighbourhood with a bunch of vanillas". Who do you think is scum?

@Elie- please read the thread, yes

I think I'm leaning towards a kirsche lynch but his point about masons maybe being enough investigation is fair, but the thing is that it's almost more like an innocent townie with hydra perks than masons guhhh I'm going to look back at his past few non-claim posts.

[Refa]

5 minutes ago, BBM said:

I think I'm leaning towards a kirsche lynch but his point about masons maybe being enough investigation is fair, but the thing is that it's almost more like an innocent townie with hydra perks than masons guhhh I'm going to look back at his past few non-claim posts.

Do you think making that point makes him less likely to be scum?  I don't really get what you're getting at.

[BBM]

yes because it re-opens the possibility of Bart being scum, which reduces the chance of kirsche being scum

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, BBM said:

yes because it re-opens the possibility of Bart being scum, which reduces the chance of kirsche being scum

it's NAI because if scum!kirsche gets lynched then scum loses

[Refa]

@Bartozio YOU ARE JUST EXPENDABLE TO HIM MERELY A SETBACK

[Elieson]

SEVEN HOURS LEFT REFA I HAVE TIME TO KEEP READING

[BBM]

I don't mean that him making the point is specifically townie, just that Bart being available for lynch widens the pool of possible scum candidates and makes the PoE case on kirsche weaker

[Refa]

Just now, BBM said:

I don't mean that him making the point is specifically townie, just that Bart being available for lynch widens the pool of possible scum candidates and makes the PoE case on kirsche weaker

Fair enough, I think.  I've been okay with lynching Bart after Marth asked me who I thought was scum w/Kirsche, but even assuming Town!Kirsche, I'd be okay with it (not as okay with it as my current vote but that should be obvious).  Regardless of what I think though, if one of your reasons for voting Kirsche is just PoE, maybe you need to rethink your case.

[Zkirsche]

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He is just a BAD LYNCH apparently, which is a bit frustrating when you're scumreading the guy

Then you can understand how annoying it is for me when you claim Sully being skeptical of a lynch and flat out never reading the posts made by his top "scumread" are hard to fake as town.

Sully has gone from claiming I'm desperate and being unable to back up his points, to saying I am the liekly scum on PoE, to saying I never contribute to the greater game at hand (when all of my reads have a greater scum team in mind and I've been looking at associations between people and what their interactions mean for the scumteam at large). If he isn't making shit up as he goes along as town he is flat out deluding himself into things that are clearly not happening. If he's truly thinking about what happens in the thread out of game then he is deliberately thinking how to portray every action I have made as scummy.

Why am I a better lynch than Bart? Why am I scummy in the first place Refa?

[Zkirsche]

Like, Sully asks me what I think of BBM when he is obviously confirmed town as if that's contributing to the "greater game at hand" if bad play is hard to fake then what is easy to fake?

[BBM]

@kirsche- when I meant that you weren't responding to my points, I was referring to stuff like your bit on Shinori- I fully admitted that I waffled on Shinori in one post, but my point was that my overall read on Shinori was consistently that I thought he was suspicious, even if I never voted him. But you just focused on that one post, which didn't rebut my point. Rebutting my point would have been to look at all my Shinori posts and saying "look you waffle in all these places" or showing in some way that that one post was indicative of my posts as a whole wrt Shinori.

It's not just that your case against me is bad; it's that it's finding a totally contrived reason for suspicion. I don't understand how you can say with a straight face that your Sully case wasn't barebones, and me pointing that out isn't undermining it. Me not specifically asking you for examples doesn't mean that your case wasn't barebones, just that I maybe didn't do a good job communicating how exactly it was barebones. Also, you're now adding that you find Sully suspicious not just for hopping around, but who they hopped onto, and yet you never even said who he hopped on to until I pressured you about it!

I wasn't even saying that your case being barebones was scummy, because it was clear that Sully wasn't supposed to be your main scumread going into the day, and you pivoted into it when Shinori died. I just asked you to to put more into it so that I could develop a better read on you and not judge you based on a case that hadn't been your main focus. What's scummy is when you pretend that your Sully vote was a proper case, when half of it is still you attempting to come to a read on him (hence all the questions you ask other people).

Also, I didn't say you were suspicious for playing to your town meta, I said that your Shinori interactions were questionable because barely talking about another player, especially one who was one of the more discussed topics, is generally suspicious. However, I qualified that by saying that your town playstyle could be a possible reason for that as well.

I apologize for accusing you of faking inactivity though; that was in bad taste and not something you've done before as scum.

@Refa- PoE isn't the only part of my case against kirsche, but it is a part of it, so it makes me less confident.

Reading his last few posts in a claim vacuum reminded me why I was suspicious about him before the claim, but I still just.. can't think of a reason why kirsche would claim VT in that situation other than WIFOM. Refa, does that not bother you very much, or are you just okay with either of kirsche/Bartozio?