Antihero Anonydraft Mafia (Game Over)

[Refakitty³]

Kochiki's effort levels are good and I can follow his progression. At least it was an entertaining read.

 

I don't like the batter's progression on endeavour.

D1 he was neutral, but wanted more reads from him, which is fair enough.

ED2 he is town from interactions with rick. The batter seems confident in this, disputing toshio's view of their interaction. The line "It's hard for me to criticize him. I don't have scumreads outside of Faye either" is strange to me because while technically true, until 8 minutes before that post the batter had a read on my slot based on both content and interactions.

Then, he suddenly decides "interactions be damned" (what brought that on?) and consistently scumreads endeavour from then on.

Associative reads without a flip, but this seems like a scum/scum interaction to me. If rick and endeavour are buddies, they'd want to highlight the former voting the latter, and unless the batter can explain his change on how he values interactions, it looks like the point where he decided endeavour's lynch was inevitable.

Not much to say on the batter interaction with rick. He asks rick a question, rick responds

[Violet Evergarden]

I reconsidered the possibility of Endeavour as scum because after my Mello read seemed most likely wrong I only had one scum read. Faye couldn't have been the only scum.

My defense is that scum has no reason to make that flip-flop in the thread completely unprompted while nothing else is going on - rather, I posted that because I'm town and was rethinking the game because I was questioning my own reads. I do realize this borders into "if I were scum" territory as scum doesn't need a reason to help people. It's still the best explanation I can give.

[All Might]

@Lapis: It will be fruitless to argue against it because I am not particularly up for changing my mind on the action. It's not too hard to retroactively explain away bad play imo and so in some cases I really don't care what defence is made, you're always gonna be somewhat scummy for it. The beast argument you can make is to play like town otherwise.

It's strong enough for me.

[Estelle]

Alright, it seems like people have pretty much decided to lynch me anyway, so I'll focus on telling you who to lynch tommorow instead of telling you why you're being idiots defending myself.

I started rereading Lapis, and they are bothering me more then I expected. Their vote on me is pretty bad for starters:

15 hours ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

##Vote: Endeavour

I think, knowing Faye was town, that his describing her first post as "calling for a quick hammer" is misleading, and his later content does not make me feel better.

For one, I'm not even sure I really think this a good reason to vote me considering what she has on Nagito.

Secondly, I'm pretty sure I never said she was calling for a quick hammer. Please quote where I said so, because I've read through my content looking for it, and I found one post where I went into detail about Faye's post:

On 5-1-2018 at 5:04 PM, Endeavor said:

Faye's vote on me is a simple sheep and the rest of her post doesn't contain much good either. (Telling people to not bother looking into early wagons is bad, because it limits possible early game content way too much. Early vote stacking isn't bad in and of itself, but it doesn't deserve a free pass one bit. This has mostly been mentioned by other people already though.) Because of their apparent real life issues I'm less bother by it then with Beast (actually, it would probably bother me less regardless because she at least shared opinons), but I do hope her activity will go up later this phase or at least starting D2.

I honestly see nothing here that could even be missread as me saying she's calling for a quicklynch, and after this I only mention finding Faye's first post scummy. I did say Batter was calling for a quicklynch, so it's possible that's where this mistake is coming from, but it feels like a very weird mistake to make on your main reason for scum reading me (or at least the main reason she stated for it).

It feels like trying to bring in something original to not seem like a simple sheep, instead of actually stating what bothers her about me (which is scummy, because scum cares most about what other people think about their vote, while town just wants to get other people to agree on their read).

D2, she also told Faye to target me if she was vengeful (or maybe some other players, but I was the first mention), even though her last mention of me was saying she disagreed with a lynch on me because I didn't seem scummy out of associations.

Overall, after reading the new Lapis' content it feels like she's mainly going after the people that are already being scumread to produce a (miss)lynch. She targeted Nagito and Faye D2, and me D3. I'm also finding her switch from Nagito to me odd. She did mention in her posts that she was starting to get more sus of me, but it never overtook the suspision of Nagito and I'm bothered it happened right at the start of today, when it was clear people were not liking me at the end of D2 (and she didn't mention that in particular).

##Vote: Lapis Lazuly

posting this now because I don't know when someone is going to hammer, but more coming up.

[Estelle]

Overall thoughts on other people:

Omar Little:
Likely town. Insomniac isn't a clear town role (nothing is in this game) but it's a point in his favor, and none of his posts really feel scummy to me. He's also made some plays that feel very weird to make coming from scum (like sticking to his townread on me and defending it, when it was easy to say he was starting to get doubts to make a misslynch on me more likely)

Kokichi Ouma:
Nothing as definitive as Omar, but overall tone and activity strike me as town.

The Batter:
I mentioned before that his votes felt weak to me. The main reason for this was because whenever he switched votes to someone, his suspision for the person he was voting before seemed to dissapear in thin air. Considering The Batter has now admitted to having trouble getting scumreads though (after everyone was calling me crazy), I'm less bothered. His posts do indeed strike me as someone who has trouble getting reads but still trying to get them in earnest. My weakest townread, since it's not impossible for scum to fake this, but still a townread.

Mello:
The more I think about it, the more trouble I have seeing scum fake that number thing, and his overall posts never bothered me.

Nagito Komaeda:
Him missing The Batters answer when it was posted right below his question still bothers me, and his reaction to my case felt a bit too panicky at first. His other posts felt fine though, which is why he isn't my top scumread.

Beast:
His D2 was quite the improvement from his D1, and I already mentioned how it alliviated most of my initial worries. I still don't like how it seems like we needed to put him under pressure to get him to start actively participating though, nor do I like the fact that he hasn't posted in a while now that the pressure seems lifted. Omar makes a decent case about him as well. Don't suspect him as much as Lapis, but he could very well be the remaining scum member.

Toshio Ozaki:
Honestly the one person I should really read up on more. His posts never really bothered me a lot, but it's not like they read obv town either.

Lynch priority would be: Lapis>>Beast>Komeada>>Ozaki.

[Estelle]

And finally a reminder of what we know about roles right now:

1. Kratos [Doctor] (1,1)
2-8. [vengeful], Ouma [Mayor]
9. Endeavor [Vanilla] (7,3)
10. Crawler [Vanilla] (7,5)
11-14. Omar [Insomniac] (7,4), Mello (7,4)

Upon my death, Mello is the only one here I'd say is unconfirmed, just claimed.Don't think he's lying, but still.

Unknown order:
Faye [Sidekick]
Rick [Vanilla]
Titania [Vanilla]
[Strongman]

Strongman being scum. This leaves 4 unknown roles, most of which are likely high order picks (I assume Sidekick was a low order pick). My guess is strongman will try to hide behind Ricks order and claim Vanilla (easier to claim then a power role), since his draft order might be too high to fake being vanilla. This is just my assumption, but I would advice you guys to keep an eye out for Vanilla claims like that (right now it's only me and Mello, but more will might pop up later on).

And that's basicly what I have to say for now. If I have more time I'll try reading into Ozaki more, as well as look into associative reads wrt Rick and Lapis. If not, I'll just have to leave that to you all. You're still a bunch of ameteurs for lynching the only profesional ammong you btw.

[Rain Nijika]

41 minutes ago, Endeavor said:

Secondly, I'm pretty sure I never said she was calling for a quick hammer. Please quote where I said so, because I've read through my content looking for it, and I found one post where I went into detail about Faye's post:

On 1/4/2018 at 10:18 AM, Endeavor said:

I agree with us needing interactions miss, but calling for a quick hammer after the game hasn't been going on for a full hour is taking it a bit far don't you think? At the time he made that comment, there were already 5 votes on the good man, and keeping in mind the game likely contained a mayor (which has now been confirmed), his actions were overdoing it.

I switched over from Nagito because of Faye's flip, which makes the above even more suspicious. I called for a vengeful shot on you or Beast/Nagito, not just you. I would say that shooting you in that situation makes some sense because it provides another flip to work with and it would force people to go look at other targets. 

Instead,  she flipped, and here we are.

I agree that Mello's likely town, but why do you think that his muck-up is a town slip and mine isn't? They're NAI but your reasoning behind it doesn't make sense since they're both cases of not reading mod posts.

@Toshio Ozaki So basically I'm scum because I sounded scummy earlier in the game, and nothing's going to change that other than my play. Is this an accurate statement? If so:

1) You recognize that's frustrating to deal with, right?

2) That's a lazy justification because by not pointing to specific points where my argument is scummy you're not exposing yourself to criticism.

 

 

[Estelle]

@Lapis Lazuli Huh, I missed a possibility for you to missinterpret something I said it seems.

In that post I'm explaining my vote on The Batter to Faye, so the whole calling for a quicklynch is still referring to him.

30 minutes ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

I switched over from Nagito because of Faye's flip, which makes the above even more suspicious. I called for a vengeful shot on you or Beast/Nagito, not just you. I would say that shooting you in that situation makes some sense because it provides another flip to work with and it would force people to go look at other targets. 

On 9-1-2018 at 6:46 PM, Lapis Lazuli said:

I'm about to be busy so I can't post at length for quite a while. On that note, I'm still on board with Faye lynch. If she's vengeful town, shoot endeavour or someone along those lines like beast/nagito (both of whom do have supporters). If she's scum vengeful, shooting her partner is optimal imo. If she's neither, the lack of claim baffles me.

I'll get back to the rest when I have time.

The wording here implies I'm the main option and the other two are more of an afterthought. Even if I'd accept you just gave three options without any preference between them, it still doesn't make sense to list me as an option if you don't think I'm scum. Yes, my flip will give more information (actually, it won't if you already assume I'm town, but I'll accept you weren't 100% sure), but shooting scum is still a lot better. I really don't see how a town player can think shooting someone who is likely town is about as good as shooting someone who you think is scum.

30 minutes ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

I agree that Mello's likely town, but why do you think that his muck-up is a town slip and mine isn't? They're NAI but your reasoning behind it doesn't make sense since they're both cases of not reading mod posts.

His mistake was thinking someone was lying about draft orders, your mistake was thinking the numbers weren't confirmed. Thinking someone is lying about draft orders doesn't make sense for scum, thinking numbers aren't confirmed by the mod does (scum knows numbers, but they could have missed the post letting town know just as easily as a towny could miss them).

(I'm assuming that's the number muck-up you're referring to.)

[Rain Nijika]

30 minutes ago, Endeavor said:

@Lapis Lazuli Huh, I missed a possibility for you to missinterpret something I said it seems.

In that post I'm explaining my vote on The Batter to Faye, so the whole calling for a quicklynch is still referring to him.

 

The wording here implies I'm the main option and the other two are more of an afterthought. Even if I'd accept you just gave three options without any preference between them, it still doesn't make sense to list me as an option if you don't think I'm scum. Yes, my flip will give more information (actually, it won't if you already assume I'm town, but I'll accept you weren't 100% sure), but shooting scum is still a lot better. I really don't see how a town player can think shooting someone who is likely town is about as good as shooting someone who you think is scum.

His mistake was thinking someone was lying about draft orders, your mistake was thinking the numbers weren't confirmed. Thinking someone is lying about draft orders doesn't make sense for scum, thinking numbers aren't confirmed by the mod does (scum knows numbers, but they could have missed the post letting town know just as easily as a towny could miss them).

(I'm assuming that's the number muck-up you're referring to.)

1)I don't think that explanation parses as smoothly, but if other people would post their thoughts about it, that'd be great.

2) I was actively wavering. When I posted that at the time you just switched to Nagito which really shook me so I said that. The other thing about it is that you're not factoring in that if Faye was Town, it makes you look bad because of above, which overrides my prior objections. To spell it out, I didn't think at that point in time that you/Faye were town/town, and since I was 85% sure faye was scum, if she did flip town vengeful, I figured shooting you would be shooting scum. I still think that's correct today.

And you think, if I was scum, that my scumbuddy wouldn't have stopped me when I was the only one in the thread going on about it?

[Cú Chulainn]

Is there a way to ISO from profiles beyond just clicking the last ten or links? Rereading the whole thread to try and find something is lame.

[Cú Chulainn]

Also,

2 hours ago, Endeavor said:

Mello:
The more I think about it, the more trouble I have seeing scum fake that number thing, and his overall posts never bothered me.

Is that true? If so, why did you vote Mello yesterday again?

[Rain Nijika]

You can hit activities and it should show all their content posted.

Also for the record I should say that my fucking numbers up in itself is NAI but I think context points otherwise.

[Rain Nijika]

Err, the "see their activity" button just above the two tabs.

or you go to their profile link and add /content/

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/profile/5593-lapis-lazuli/content/

this is my profile, for example.

[Cú Chulainn]

Wait it was Beast who voted Mello before wasn't it

[Estelle]

45 minutes ago, Kokichi Ouma said:

Also,

Is that true? If so, why did you vote Mello yesterday again?

Yes.

Also, I think it was Beast yeah. I'm pretty sure I only voted Faye and Komeada yesterday.

[Cú Chulainn]

Toshio's reads hold up upon rereading but they aren't anything to write home about. I don't think they've really changed at all since partway through Day 2, which is pretty weird. I'd be more okay with if their reads were more substantial but it doesn't feel like they're actually that strong. It's weird that they don't want to talk about their townreads but place so much stock in them that they don't even really seem to look the way of their reads which "could be wrong". How long have you been comfortable with me and the Batter, for reference?

[All Might]

^^^Since the end of D1, becoming more and more confident in it. Very confident in The Batter especially after looking at him N3.

While it is frustrating for you Lapis that's that. The reason I at one point found you scummy is still the same as it was after our first discussion after you rejoined the thread. You can criticise that all you like if you feel like that will help you catch scum better somehow. I am still open to lynching Beast before you.

##Unvote

Will read through Beast's recent content soon and hopefully get an idea of how I feel about it. First impression is that I'm not sure scum would bother posting all that but then again they might and it kinda sucks that this effort only comes when they're about to be lynched. It's worth waiting for Beast's thoughts on the game regardless.

[Olivier]

@Endeavor@Endeavor You mentioned that you reread me before your vote on me, but later on you mention my D1 content (cases on Kokichi/you/Mello and why I voted Dr. Crowler) made you feel better about me.  In what way did you reread me that entailed skipping all of my D1 content?  Catching scum while ignoring most of their D1 would be one definition of hope, I guess.

@Toshio Ozaki Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the leading wagon Endeavor?  I had things to say about that wagon and I'm going to feel like an idiot if it was Beast all along.

I'm making another post but I want these questions answered ASAP.

[All Might]

^Yes? I'm not sure how my post disagrees with the sentiment of "Endeavor is the leading wagon"?

[Olivier]

15 minutes ago, Toshio Ozaki said:

Will read through Beast's recent content soon and hopefully get an idea of how I feel about it. First impression is that I'm not sure scum would bother posting all that but then again they might and it kinda sucks that this effort only comes when they're about to be lynched. It's worth waiting for Beast's thoughts on the game regardless.

This part.

[All Might]

Oh I meant Endeavor's recent content not Beast's.

[Refakitty³]

at-bat: When you were talking about endeavour's interaction with rick, you said mello's interactions were bad, and you would push him over faye if not for his reaction to crowler. Even if it's a bit indecisive, I'd consider that a read, but for endeavour you only talked about the interaction until toshio prompted you. This gives me the impression that you consider interactions to be a more reliable way of scumhunting than content, but that just makes less sense that you'd throw out the interactions.

Landreading lapis to consider endeavour's case, but the post won't come for a couple of hours.

[Olivier]

I've lost my post twice so far.  This is really starting to get on my nerves.  BBM recommending Incognito Mode was a scum sided suggestion IMO.

[BBM]

Beast has been prodded.

[Refakitty³]

3 hours ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

1)I don't think that explanation parses as smoothly, but if other people would post their thoughts about it, that'd be great.

2)  To spell it out, I didn't think at that point in time that you/Faye were town/town,

1) If you're talking about the quickhammer comment, it doesn't make sense to me. I wouldn't interpret it as directed towards Faye, if anything I'd interpret it as directed towards Rick, sine he was the one who called for a quickhammer on Kichiko; The Batter was talking about purifying corruption and cleansing the land, so compared to Rick that is more obviously RP.

 

2) What made you come to that conclusion?