Colonel M Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Kenneth's. Jerme's is a route while Kenneth's is a seize throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geriba Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) After doing a comprehensive analysis of dondon's Chapter 12 run, I've got to conclude that he seriously underrepresented the sheer amount of luck involved with a successful four-turn completion. Hit True Hit 72 84.6 73 85.69 92 98.8 92 98.8 92 98.8 76 88.72 76 88.72 50* 50.5 30 18.3 50 then 90* 50.5 then 98.1 93x2 (one hits) ~100 74 86.74 75 87.75 77 89.65 60 68.4 2 (crit) 2 90 98.1 91 98.47 78 90.54 78 90.54 Those are all the hits that absolutely have to land. * -> dondon didn't make this clear, but the enemy PK and mercenary have no preference between attacking Hector versus Matthew (I'm assuming it's a 50/50 split). If the mercenary hits, the PK will always follow after; but even if the mercenary chooses Hector, the PK may still got for Matty. And the final odds are... *drumroll* TOTAL: .000186240495794 You're not reading that wrong: without any RNG abuse, the odds of a C.12 four-turn completion are about 2% in 1%, or .018%. That's something like one in ten thousand. In other words, dondon RNG abused (and all of you who wish to do a minimum-turn run need to). Edited February 10, 2011 by Jaffar7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Narga_Rocks Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ok, first off I'll say that dondon does way more chancy things than I'd like to assume for efficiency lists. However, are you sure every single on of those are necessary to hit? That there isn't going to be some contingency plan if some of those miss that allows you to still pull off 4 turns? I'd find it amazing if he needs every single one of those. Not to mention since he does this type of thing in every video. 1 out of more than 5000. Since he does this nearly each time, wouldn't that take thousands upon thousands of attempts before he pulls it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dondon151 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) I hope you're trying to be funny. Anyway, I do take advantage of the fact that the RNG is predictable to manipulate attack order so that higher numbers in the sequence will be used on higher hit rates or on level ups. And naturally, any specific sequence of actions that involve many ~90% hit rates is going to have a large chance at failure simply because the fraction accumulates. But like Narga said, I don't have the patience for strategies that theoretically almost never work. Look at the RD 0% growth run, for example, where the RNG is not predictable and I have to go through an entire chapter without a fatal miss. The recorded strategy is obviously not the only viable one either. Gergeshwan has recorded a 4 turn completion of chapter 12 at least twice using the fixed growths patch, where the RNG is not predictable and RNG abuse is not possible. I also only needed the 2% crit on the brigand because Hector missed the PK at like 80 hit. Not counting that, the chance of success for that particular sequence of actions is 1%, which is fairly reasonable. Edited February 10, 2011 by dondon151 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geriba Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 No, I'm not trying to "be funny." I'm pointing out how contingent your strategy is upon luck and RNG manipulation, even if it is the optimal one. Unlike other chapters (and this goes to your point, Narga), every single hit IS required here, as it's a route chapter and the number of viable PCs is sparse. Your point about the critical not being necessary is wrong, by the way: if the hit had been a regular one, even with a hit upon the PK, one enemy unit would still be left alive, requiring an extra turn. And it's not 1%, it's .02%. That's just absurdly unlikely without serious RNG abuse. On a lighter note, I've devised a way to do the River Route for Ch.13, even on a 0% growth playthrough, that accomplishes all of the objectives in 5 turns. That means saving both villages, recruiting Guy, and shopping. I might post it online if I can figure out how to record and comment on videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balcerzak Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 After doing a comprehensive analysis of dondon's Chapter 12 run, I've got to conclude that he seriously underrepresented the sheer amount of luck involved with a successful four-turn completion. 2 (crit) 2 That crit is much of what brings your overall calculation down to unbearable levels, and what's most important is that it isn't even what one would call strictly necessary. As long as either the Peg or the Bandit are hit, there looks to be enough attack power between Oswin and Hector to make up for it on the final enemy phase with a bandit suicide. P Knights are the only ones, that I recall, that routinely book it to forts for healing. Furthermore, I find the 50% chances based on AI your listing there to be somewhat dubious as well, as turn 1 enemy phase left Hector pretty heavily wounded, and my (untested) assumption would be that being at near half health with the bonus for lord priority makes those most likely non-factors as well. It's hard to critique your list of chances any more, as you haven't separated things into a turn-by-turn breakdown, but at least in my opinion turn 1 is always free, and everything happening there should be assumed to happen with basically 100% certainty, barring of course a single-digit percent crit. It's only as one progresses much further into the stage that the opportunity cost of lost time that is associated with taking risks really begins to mount. Not to mention... but knowledge of the existence RNG (ab)use in 0% growths isn't exactly a new thing. There were plenty of massaged Rutger criticals in FE6, and in my opinion, there's no reason anyone should need to be ashamed for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dondon151 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) The bandit suicide is made unlikely by the fact that he has a Hand Axe and Matthew doesn't have 2 range. Your point about the critical not being necessary is wrong, by the way: if the hit had been a regular one, even with a hit upon the PK, one enemy unit would still be left alive, requiring an extra turn. And it's not 1%, it's .02%. That's just absurdly unlikely without serious RNG abuse. Nope, you are dead wrong. PKs are left with 6 HP, and are KO'd by Matthew and Hector. Brigand is left with 15 HP, and is KO'd by Oswin. Really, now? Do you not know how to do math? 0.0002 / 0.02 = 0.01. 1%. Edited February 10, 2011 by dondon151 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geriba Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) I think it's hilarious how you're getting so defensive. Apparently I "don't know how to do math," because I thought Oswin did 14 damage instead of 15, boo hoo. What would be .02% becomes 1%, yippee. The main point stands: the strategy requires not just luck, but a great deal of luck. And I can't imagine Oswin's strike against a hand-axe wielding brigand could be any higher than 60% or so, meaning that the overall rate is below 1%. What I want to hit home about is that we collectively need to let go of this assumption that RNG abuse is somehow a "bad thing." In fact, it's absolutely necessary for an optimal playthrough. Edited February 11, 2011 by Jaffar7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Narga_Rocks Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'd still prefer strategies that don't involve death more than 80% of the time. Really, if missing a few 95%s will kill you, fine. I can see how that would be acceptable. But if missing an 80% will result in death, I really wouldn't want that type of thing to move units around. If you can finish in 4 turns instead of 6 when the stars line up, that shouldn't mean that Lyn can't gain enough exp to be good. In general, you should be considering how things work with 6 turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven Deadly Sins Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 As far as how this impacts tiering, I've said that I don't take into account "maximum" efficiency, only "reasonable" efficiency. Max efficiency involves using specific characters to do specific stuff that may or may not be heavily reliant on the RNG, so I'd rather work with something that is reasonably easy to replicate despite ill fortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dondon151 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) I think it's hilarious how you're getting so defensive. Did you honestly expect anything else? I mean, if someone punched you in the face, would it be "hilarious" if you got angry? I personally find it amusing, to say the least, that you're being belligerent for no reason. The main point stands: the strategy requires not just luck, but a great deal of luck. I don't think you understand. Any extremely specific sequence of actions without a consistent 100% rate of success requires a great deal of luck to replicate the exact same results. If one had to repeat a set of 20 actions, with each one having a 95% chance of success, the entire sequence has only roughly a 13% chance of success. Not only did you fail to consider that there are other possible strategies for a 4 turn clear (i.e. Gergeshwan has recorded a 4 turn completion using a fixed growth patch with a nonabusable RNG), but you also assumed that there was no potential for adaptability should an attack hit or miss (e.g. player phase misses can be recovered by greater enemy phase action). Yes, it is likely for chapter 12 that due to the lack of player units and the universally low hit rates of Hand Axes and Javelins, one successful 4 turn attempt will generally come after a number of failed attempts. But it is not anywhere close to 1 in 5000 as you've stated it to be; in fact, it is substantially more likely than even 1 in 100. And really, that is just about the case with every low turn strategy in existence, so I'm not exactly sure why you're pointing it out like it's a bad thing. Edited February 11, 2011 by dondon151 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galenforcer Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I know how it is to rely on hit rates. Usually the game hates me and makes miss hits, therefore forces me to eat more turns. I find it annoying, especially when you try rank runs and have little patience when relatively high hit rates miss and screw you over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gergeshwan Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) Don't know if it will help clear this up, but I went back through my recorded run (without crits, which seem to be where most of the commotion came from) to look at its success rate. I ended up sending Marcus north to help Hector and Oswin out, as I found they needed it more than the units in the south, who were perfectly fine on their own. Eliwood and Bartre had nothing to do on the last turn, and I would have had more if I wasn't trying to force feed Lowen kills. Here's what I got. Turn 1 86.74- Oswin attacks a Peg. 89.65- Hector finishes with Hand Axe. 89.65- Hector counters a Peg. 91.39- Hector counters a Peg. Hector also hits the Bandit, but that was for exp only. Marcus kills him regardless. And it doesn't take much time to reset from turn 1, which is why I didn't have Hector use the Wolf Beil for better hit. He could have though, boosting the success rate. Turn 2 91.39- Hector kills a Peg. 86.74- Oswin kills a Peg. 92.97 Oswin counters a Merc. 89.65- Hector counters a Peg. Turn 3 99.34- Hector kills a Peg. 99.72- Oswin kills a Merc. 98.47 98.47- Matthew attacks an Archer. Turn 4 98.47 98.47- Matthew kills an Archer. 92.20 92.20- Marcus kills the boss. Overall- 33.328% Now, that's not great. But it's not like it would require massive abuse. If Hector uses the Wolf Beil for turn 1 instead of the Hand Axe, success jumps to 44.652%. If you make it past turn 1, since it takes very little time to reset if it ends that early, your odds for success are a more respectable 52.311%. Also, even if you fail the 4 turn, you still have a great shot at the 5 turn clear. Unless you miss a Peg, those are really annoying to chase down. Also, most chapters don't have success rates like this. Even the later routs are a lot safer. Like in 14, Marcus can wipe out most of the map on his own, and his hit rates are just fine. Edited February 11, 2011 by Gergeshwan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geriba Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I honestly think you're misinterpreting my intention, dondon. I didn't mean to imply that your run was somehow "bad"; in fact, I'm impressed you came up with a four-turn for that map. It's just essential to point out how up to chance- or, more likely, RNG abuse- certain chapters are going to be on an efficiency playthrough. I'm not punching anybody... if anything, I'm holding out a had of congratulations while pointing out a necessary component of that success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Horace Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) If you want to see a strategy based heavily on luck (or RNG abuse) watch this guy's Draft run. It's on normal mode, but its still ridiculous. Especially how much his characters got blessed. Here's chapter 12, in 3 turns, with a slightly ridiculous Hector. http://www.youtube.com/user/Darkzsamusz#p/u/24/adb2J0BC-1o Edited February 11, 2011 by General_Horace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paperblade Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 (edited) If you want to see a strategy based heavily on luck (or RNG abuse) watch this guy's Draft run. It's on normal mode, but its still ridiculous. Especially how much his characters got blessed. Here's chapter 12, in 3 turns, with a slightly ridiculous Hector. http://www.youtube.com/user/Darkzsamusz#p/u/24/adb2J0BC-1o Considering he played the music over the regular sound I almost want to say he RNG abused and edited it out. Edited February 11, 2011 by Paperblade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geriba Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Considering he played the music over the regular sound I almost want to say he RNG abused and edited it out. Dark's a notorious cheater over at GameFAQs, and I had the unfortunate experience of doing a run against him. Needless to say, I got tired of the ridiculous luck and obscene stat growths rather quickly. People still take him semi-serious over there though, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chococoke Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 C'mon Dondon, you gotta post an update soon. I know I'm being greedy, but still. Your videos so far have been like most of my girlfriends: Okay, never mind, I couldn't come up with anything clever to make out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dondon151 Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 They won't put out? I have had so many other obligations. Expect a video to be uploaded this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvercrow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 They've been inefficient for leaving a plunger outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chococoke Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 They've been inefficient for leaving a plunger outside? I'm pretty certain my current girlfriend's dad still hates me for that. Unless he actually IS dondon. Meaning dondon hates me. Man, this keeps getting worse and worse :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radiant Dragon Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm pretty certain my current girlfriend's dad still hates me for that. Unless he actually IS dondon. Meaning dondon hates me. Man, this keeps getting worse and worse :( Maybe it's just me, but that seems like such an trivial thing to get so angry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chococoke Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Maybe it's just me, but that seems like such an trivial thing to get so angry about. He's the kind of man that could get mad about being "inefficient." Like leaving a plunger outside of his house. He might have been having a bad day, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Excellen Browning Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A week since the last post now, are you gonna put something up soon or are you going to leave us, deprived of lowturn awesomeness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dondon151 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'll leave you deprived of low turn awesomeness. (I'm really sorry about not sticking to my word.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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