Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Bluedoom]

20 hours ago, Green Poet said:

##Pseudovote: Refa

Refa was the first to notice Michelaar's townslip. This is scummy because the "townslip" was almost certainly a gambit that a buddy was assigned to point out. Refa bought into this slip seemingly completely, and continued to remind people throughout his following posts to get it circulating.

This is a scum post. "I don't think Michelaar is a good enough actor to act is if he thought there was an N0 beforehand (even if a scumbuddy told him)."

That's scum logic. A townslip only works because you can't make the statement as scum. If Refa actually believed Michelaar couldn't fake this "even if a scumbuddy told him," it's NAI and not a townslip at all, meaning this is an argument adjusted to fit the "townread" that Refa had on Michelaar from the start. This parenthetical also points to Refa trying to discourage people from thinking it could have been organized in scumchat if Michelaar were still to be lynched yesterday.

Going to address this post first. First off, you're assuming that the 'townslip' was a gambit. That's a big assumption. Refa also found things like Michelaar climing to be experienced and then not contributing to discussion as behaviour that wouldn't benefit scum, so its not like he saw the townslip and came to some revelation. You're making this out to be some kind of sudden 180. If you think Refa townreading Mich for the 'townslip' is scummy, then what about BBM? Are you townreading BBM for his voteswitch at phase end, or is there more to it?

 

Assuming Town!Refa, then he would obviously want to have more conviction in his reads. If he had been townreading Michelaar from before(and we know that he was townreading Mich a little past RVS) then even if that slip is NAI, he'd just factor in the other reasons for townreading Michelaar, like the BBM post that he quoted. Scum!Refa, yeah, he adjusts the argument to fit his 'reads', but the point being that your argument here is NAI. 

 

 

 

 

[Bluedoom]

5 hours ago, Green Poet said:

I think Pika is town. It's likely scum tried to divert from Mich to Pika (even if it weren't Refa, or weren't just Refa, the mood of the thread noticeably shifted Pika's way) and it doesn't make sense to leave traces of this effort if Pika were also scum. Mich being suspected means he probably would've attracted N1 scans had he lived, and "cleared" scum is far more valuable than a courier!scum, barring the courier having some highly exceptional additional part of their role.

Pika's "I wanted to be lynched because I felt pretty sure that the alternative wagon was also town and a better/more contributing player than me" sentiment is one that I myself had for my first two town games. I know the feeling, and the way he expressed it feels like newb!town I'm familiar with.

 

 

Let's get one thing straight- we don't have evidence that scum actively tried to divert attention from Mich to Pika. Pika wasn't even a viable counterwagon until about 10-12 hours before deadline, and the first votes on the wagon were me(stuck on him for about 2 days), Prims and Michelaar. So 2 town and 1 scum. EoD votals show Refa as the fourth vote, but don't forget BBM's voteswitch. Since you were quick to doubt your Mich vote D1 and play devil's advocate with yourself, I'd like you to consider the case where Refa isn't scum. Because honestly I'm not seeing any coherent scum plan just looking at the EoD votals.

 

Your argument for Town!Pika doesn't hold either.  As I said, Pika wasn't a viable counterwagon until 10-12 hours before Phase End, so making this out to be some master scum plan is silly. Scum bussing in general is bad on D1 but assuming Pika and  Mich were Scum-Scum wagons, the better play would be to get the Courier!Scum killed, as you say. This is clearly a justification for Scum!Pika not voting for his counterwagon. Keep in mind that your argument for Pika's vote being town is similar to Refa's argument for Mich being Town.

 

 

[Bluedoom]

Oh right I never gave a read on GP. I think her case on Refa and assessment of the EoD1 is contrived, and it uses the kind of logic that lines up lynches, but there is careful consideration on the actions of other players + the Michelaar interactions during RVS so I can't say much as of now. I should probably read one of her scum games.

I would be fine with an Elieson lynch but at this point its really just shooting in the dark. Dat Inactivity.

 

 

[Bluedoom]

Ok I'm kinda tired so I'm gonna sleep. Tomorrow, its rereading Mack, FK, Proto and ...well I'll think about it.

[Junk]

Welp I am dumb guess I haven't improved at mafia as much as I thought I did :( 

Guess I'll test my vote on elieson then although 99% this won't work lol

##unvote

##vote elieson

Don't have any reads at this point, although haven't read most of today's posts cuz school hope I find something later but not confident tbh

[BBM]

if there's a dayvig they should probably shoot elie if he doesn't post again today. I feel like he's stalling out the phase right now bc he along with Refa is one of the main scumreads and he's not here to defend himself, but unlike D1 I have way more townreads so I don't really have another person to push while he's away.

someone (GP?) brought up Elie's comment early D1 about someone dayvigging Michelaar and that makes me more confident this was a bus. nobody legitimately asks someone to dayvig a dude 36 hours into the game. and especially if he thought phase was about to end in a few hours what's the point of using a dayvig then? seems very over-the-top.

Faerie Knight is prooobably the townread I'm least confident in. I didn't like his post near the start of D2 where he was like "I wouldn't mind this Refa lynch" because his responses to Refa's listpost seems to cherrypick a couple things while ignoring the bulk of that post and the rest of Refa's play, and also doesn't say anything about the townslip or other parts of the cases other people had on Refa.

But the thing Refa posted about FK being town bc as scum he could have voted Refa in that spot and gotten him quickhammered with the scum persuade is good and I don't have answer for it other than that the other scum was the persuader and didn't communicate with FK to set it up and just got trigger happy, or that the persuade can't hammer (but then why use it there) or that Refa is scum trying to WIFOM. the persuade is really throwing me off

FK are you still ok with the Refa lynch

@GP- I'd rather not say.

@Bartozio- courier can let you message thoughts to someone over night that you don't necessarily want to broadcast in the thread (like maybe you have some lingering suspicions about someone but don't want to let them know). it's a pretty niche and not very good role that's normally just used to fill out a no-vanilla game so that everyone has roles.

I'm actually second-guessing the Pika townread, mostly bc Marth getting confirmed town and partially bc I realized as I was telling Bartozio about couriers that courier is basically a shitty neighbour because you only get one message a night to anybody as opposed to unlimited messages all the time but to only one person, which makes me think that either the courier or the neighbour is a scum fakeclaim. but I'm not sure the mods would see it that way so ?_?

btw love you Marth never doubted your alignment for a second :) do you actually think Pika is scum or are you just not agreeing with logic where he is town

barring an investigative roleclaim today doc should protect one of me or marth thanks

[BBM]

the other problem with scum!Pika is that again there would be two new players on the scumteam

 

[Bartozio]

4 minutes ago, BBM said:

@Bartozio- courier can let you message thoughts to someone over night that you don't necessarily want to broadcast in the thread (like maybe you have some lingering suspicions about someone but don't want to let them know). it's a pretty niche and not very good role that's normally just used to fill out a no-vanilla game so that everyone has roles.

I'm actually second-guessing the Pika townread, mostly bc Marth getting confirmed town and partially bc I realized as I was telling Bartozio about couriers that courier is basically a shitty neighbour because you only get one message a night to anybody as opposed to unlimited messages all the time but to only one person, which makes me think that either the courier or the neighbour is a scum fakeclaim. but I'm not sure the mods would see it that way so ?_?

Thanks for the explanation. Also, unless I completely missed something, there was no neighbour claim. Prism's role reveal was neighbour.

You verified Pika's message yourself I believe, so the only way something is wrong here is if Pika is Jack of all Trades with multiple skills (and messaging being one of them). Is this what you mean or am I understanding your doubt of the claim wrong?

[Kriemhild]

Didn't Boron clarify that Prims was actually a Sibling?

I don't think it's safe to modmeta about the scumteam not having two newbies. It was likely RNG'd, so it's perfectly possible for there to be two scum newbies. Michelaar also pointed out that he's not a newbie.

Mack seems pretty Townish, idk if I said this already. Bartozio seems null to me.

FK is being less annoying, so I'm chalking his D1 fluff as... random fluff.

I still find Green Poet townish, and Marth is confirmed Town, sooo...

##Unvote: Refa

Time to sheep

##Vote: Elieson

I do still find Refa scummier, and I don't think Elieson's behavior is as bad as others are making it out to be, but he's being far too quiet in D2 despite several people calling out to him. He was null to me prior to D2, but now I'm getting suspicious of his inactivity. Is he genuinely busy, or is he deliberately laying low in order to resurface with a proper plan on getting out of this?

[Faerie Knight]

47 minutes ago, BBM said:

FK are you still ok with the Refa lynch

Not really, he's answered the questions I had pretty satisfyingly. I disagree with the Elie vote, however, simply because the case against him can pretty much be answered by his being just that busy. Related, I don't think he'd be this quiet regardless of alignment unless he absolutely couldn't be around.

15 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

FK is being less annoying, so I'm chalking his D1 fluff as... random fluff.

And explain why I'm that different today? (Especially since I just see people actually agreeing with a lot of what I said once they actually get it, whether they saw I said it or not)

[Refa]

1 hour ago, BBM said:

if there's a dayvig they should probably shoot elie if he doesn't post again today. I feel like he's stalling out the phase right now bc he along with Refa is one of the main scumreads and he's not here to defend himself, but unlike D1 I have way more townreads so I don't really have another person to push while he's away.

someone (GP?) brought up Elie's comment early D1 about someone dayvigging Michelaar and that makes me more confident this was a bus. nobody legitimately asks someone to dayvig a dude 36 hours into the game. and especially if he thought phase was about to end in a few hours what's the point of using a dayvig then? seems very over-the-top.

Faerie Knight is prooobably the townread I'm least confident in. I didn't like his post near the start of D2 where he was like "I wouldn't mind this Refa lynch" because his responses to Refa's listpost seems to cherrypick a couple things while ignoring the bulk of that post and the rest of Refa's play, and also doesn't say anything about the townslip or other parts of the cases other people had on Refa.

But the thing Refa posted about FK being town bc as scum he could have voted Refa in that spot and gotten him quickhammered with the scum persuade is good and I don't have answer for it other than that the other scum was the persuader and didn't communicate with FK to set it up and just got trigger happy, or that the persuade can't hammer (but then why use it there) or that Refa is scum trying to WIFOM. the persuade is really throwing me off

I'm actually second-guessing the Pika townread, mostly bc Marth getting confirmed town and partially bc I realized as I was telling Bartozio about couriers that courier is basically a shitty neighbour because you only get one message a night to anybody as opposed to unlimited messages all the time but to only one person, which makes me think that either the courier or the neighbour is a scum fakeclaim. but I'm not sure the mods would see it that way so ?_?

Read what I said below to Proto WRT stalling the game out but the second point on Elie is good.  I still agree with you about his Michelaar stance looking like a bus but I'm not seeing where the scum intent is in the FK read.  I'm going to vote Elie anyways but this is the one part I'm hesitant about since it's >50% of his content.

##Vote: Elieson

I didn't like his cases on me either, it's just the persuade is what's making me unsure about his slot.  Only reason I can see him holding back his vote as scum is if he thought people would jump on him the next day for being the last vote on the wagon before I got hammered (suspicion timing etc. etc.).  It's possible, but a lot less likely than him just being town.

Wait, wasn't Prims a mason?  I asked Boron and she said a mix between a mason and a neighbor.

30 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I do still find Refa scummier, and I don't think Elieson's behavior is as bad as others are making it out to be, but he's being far too quiet in D2 despite several people calling out to him. He was null to me prior to D2, but now I'm getting suspicious of his inactivity. Is he genuinely busy, or is he deliberately laying low in order to resurface with a proper plan on getting out of this?

He was talking on Discord about his IRL problems (Marth's in the chat, so he can back me up; it's in General), so I don't think his absence is alignment indicative.  If you still think I'm scummier than him, then there's no reason to vote him over me just because of his inactivity.

[Refa]

FK, who are you bothered by?

[BBM]

@FK- literally no part of my case against Elie has to do with him being inactive. are you his scumbuddy? if so you're going to lose the game and should give up now IMO

if Refa isn't scum and Elie isn't scum then who do you think is scum?

Proto after being the host of the mafia game known as Golden Sun Mafia your opinions about hosting games are forever invalid. most hosts re-roll if a really inexperienced scumteam is randomized. plus it's not the sole reason I'm townreading Bartozio or Pika

I'm quite sure that Boron purposely said he was a "sibling" to leave it unclear whether they were masons or neighbours, but come on with Marth's role existing there's no chance they were masons. Three confirmed townies in a 13p game would be so borked that the rest of the town could be vanilla and it would still be a townsided setup. I also asked Boron and she said she couldn't be more specific.

not that both neighbours can't be town, but there's no way they're ~confirmed~ town

@refa- this elie/FK scumteam actually makes a lot of sense. Elie contriving a reason to vote him and then FK having a weird "finger of unusualness" on him but refusing to commit to any kind of scumread on him despite elieson's case on him getting progressively worse could easily be a staged slapfight. it also would be a good explanation for why FK was randomly like "ok let's stop now" while arguing with Elie but refused to stop arguing with me

@bartozio- neighbour is a role that by definition comes in twos; if Prims was a neighbour then someone else in the game is a neighbour as well. did you read his role PM?

[Bluedoom]

@BBM : I disagree with the logic for Town!Pika. Whatever problems I've had with him are related to D1, his D2 content hasn't bothered me at all. I'm not sure where to push this though since there are a lot of reasons to argue most players in the game as town right now.

@Faerie Knight Come back in here and posts some reads! You really need to explain yourself on your position on Refa. Why were you fine with his lynch earlier in the day?

 Being satisfied with his explanation sounds like a backpedal, since you were ok with lynching Refa without giving him a chance to explain himself. You need to give reads on other players too.

[Bluedoom]

Also BBM, assume that Elie isn't scum. Which experienced player is more likely to be scum then? Do you think there are two experienced players on the scumteam?

[Faerie Knight]

I kinda like the new look besides the Discord box being on every page of the forums now -w-

Anyway, what I was about to post over an hour ago: 

3 hours ago, Refa said:

FK, who are you bothered by?

I have no idea. Mack's EoD doesn't make sense for scum, so I'm dropping that, you've answered my questions and I don't see any merit in the townslip issue, and I think all of the problems with Elie are the result of his lack of time.

Right now, Marth is confirmed, BBM and Mack look town from last EoD, I think you and Bartozio are town, and I'm going to be working from there.

1 hour ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

@Faerie Knight  You really need to explain yourself on your position on Refa. Why were you fine with his lynch earlier in the day?

 Being satisfied with his explanation sounds like a backpedal, since you were ok with lynching Refa without giving him a chance to explain himself.

Because I had questions on him?

Er, no, I wasn't, I openly said I wasn't voting because he had 4 votes and I wanted to give him more time to reply?

Also, as a side point I noticed while rereading:

23 hours ago, BBM said:

PoE is pointing to a scumteam of Elie/Marth right now so I'm going to reread them next.

 

4 hours ago, BBM said:

btw love you Marth never doubted your alignment for a second :)

 

Spoiler

 

[Mackc2]

Um I just realised Green Poet posted during the night and made a psuedo vote, how the hell did she do that, what sort of role has that ability?

[Bluedoom]

My point being that you were just fine with Refa getting lynched when the wagon formed fast and it was barely 2 hours into the phase. Care to explain this?

[Faerie Knight]

6 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

My point being that you were just fine with Refa getting lynched when the wagon formed fast and it was barely 2 hours into the phase. Care to explain this?

I have questions on someone's reads that make me doubt them, so I say that at that time, I wouldn't mind lynching them if those questions weren't answered satisfyingly, because I wouldn't mind lynching someone I have some suspicion on. But I didn't vote then because the wagon had already built fast and I didn't want to risk a hammer cutting off his chance to answer. Ofc I wasn't just saying I was fine with his lynch so early in the phase. That's all.

[BBM]

lol FK I was obviously joking I found Marth scummy for half of D1 too

I think after Elie/FK I would prooobably go either Proto or Refa. Although I think both of them are generally townie other people have townier interactions with Michelaar, which matters more. I don't want to push either of them right now though.

[Bluedoom]

Honestly, your reasoning for clearing new players is bad. Really though, do you find anything else that makes you think Bartozio is Town? His Michelaar vote post is filled with non-commital sentences. "Not convinced that Michelaar is scum, but he seems like the most suspicious as of now" does not sit well with me now that I know Mich's flip.

 

My problem with Proto would be his audacious Refa case, which can be reduced to "He ignored GP's case on him." Also his mich vote is suspicious because his reasoning for voting Mich could have been applied to Bartozio but he couldn't find a logical justification for his Mich vote when questioned, which is a good chance for a bus. I wouldn't push this today but saying this slot is town isn't a good idea yet.

 

 

[Faerie Knight]

15 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Honestly, your reasoning for clearing new players is bad. Really though, do you find anything else that makes you think Bartozio is Town? His Michelaar vote post is filled with non-commital sentences. "Not convinced that Michelaar is scum, but he seems like the most suspicious as of now" does not sit well with me now that I know Mich's flip.

Is this addressed to me?

I've cleared Mack because of EoD1, and townread Bartozio because he's given good reasoning and explanations for his actions and responded well to questioning. 

And do you have a problem with my having felt even more "non-commital" than he did there before the flip? I outright said I'd vote Micheaar simply because I'd pick him over Pika near EoD.

[Bluedoom]

That was at BBM.

 

But you vote Michelaar out of consolidation, meaning to say that EoD was on your mind while making that vote. Bartozio's vote doesn't sound like a vote for consolidation at all.  While the mods made a mistake about the number of hours left, nowhere in Bartozio's post is there a hint at consolidation.

[Junk]

Hmm does anyone have a counterpoint to FK not getting refa hammered  (pretty sure the persuader is scum, town persuader would've claimed to clear up some confusion IMO), Only thing I can think of is that FK might have been nervous since town might be able to infer that something was weird (assuming refa's town and FK's scum) and thus FK would likely be lynched and 2 dead scum so early would be really bad so he didn't make the vote. Seems like a stretch to me though

one weird thing I notice is that proto I think has said twice now that he "finds refa scummier" but then votes for elie anyway because "he's not active, what could this be"? which seems pretty flimsy especially since i'm pretty sure some still prefer refa.  I do like Marth's point about Proto's case on refa. I get that feeling he's just sorta going with the flow? This probably only matters with flips though >_>

Otherwise thoughts are generally the exact same as before, 

[Bluedoom]

The thing about the FK being nervous part is that the persuade should've never been used in that case. There was literally no reason for scum to use it unless they miscounted votes or something.  I could see FK doing this as WIFOM but that's the kind of WIFOM that is useless.