[DATAMINE] Special Heroes Coming! Hoshidan New Years Banner - From Dec. 31

[Dark Holy Elf]

@Thane

Mm. I have a suspicion that those characters actually don't/wouldn't sell quite as well as the biggest Awakening and Fates characters (particularly Hector), but this is just speculation on my part; we don't have access to the numbers IntSys does (but given that IntSys has them, we can make some guesses). Also keep in mind that Roy, Ike, and Lyn have had alternate forms already themselves, and Lyn has had a two, which puts her on par with Azura and Camilla. @Sunwoo makes a distinction between seasonal banners and the CYL banner, but I don't find that distinction important to this discussion myself; both are alternate forms of popular characters trying to bait their fans into spending money on them.

@Nanima

Yeah Xander is certainly one of the most surprising people to have 2 alternate forms, I agree, based on CYL. It's possible that his looks play a part here (I've certainly seen significant attention given to him in that regard) and that this plays a role in who people whale for. If this speculation is wrong (and I'll readily concede it might be!), then all I'm left with is that someone on the dev team really likes Xander. I'll acknowledge that's possibly biased, though I still kinda shrug about it.

The Top Tens aren't entirely Nohr and Awakening, but consider that many of the exceptions have had alternate forms: Lyn, Roy, Ike, and now Takumi. That leaves Hector, Eirika, Ephraim, Marth, and Micaiah who have not. But to be honest, only Marth on that list really surprises me - I suspect the others benefit from the smaller fanbases of their respective games throwing their votes behind the lords for the CYL poll (as well as weird memes like Dorcas), but that this doesn't translate to number of people who would pay money to pull them.

[NekoKnight]

4 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

@Sunwoo makes a distinction between seasonal banners and the CYL banner, but I don't find that distinction important to this discussion myself; both are alternate forms of popular characters trying to bait their fans into spending money on them.

They were characters voted for directly by the fans, that's a significant difference to IS deciding for us what characters we want available.

[Nanima]

@Dark Holy Elf Still, even if the characters are popular (and according to you bring *THAT* much more money into the house, which is just an assumption btw), Intsys can't expect people to swallow the same special characters over and over without getting some backlash. Which I have seen more of lately, and not just on these forums. The revenue for Nohrwakening is just going to decrease every time they are plastered on another banner in favour of others. I do think Intsys feels the need to bank on what they perceive as the "safe" options for their festival banners, but that doesn't mean it's gonna work forever, especially when they are actively pissing off the rest of the fanbase.

[Sunwoo]

13 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Also keep in mind that Roy, Ike, and Lyn have had alternate forms already themselves, and Lyn has had a two, which puts her on par with Azura and Camilla. @Sunwoo makes a distinction between seasonal banners and the CYL banner, but I don't find that distinction important to this discussion myself; both are alternate forms of popular characters trying to bait their fans into spending money on them.

The reason I make a distinction between the CYL characters and the regular seasonal forms is because the CYL characters were explicitly created via fan vote. They were not locked to Ike, Roy, Lyn, and Lucina from the beginning of the game. They only have those costumes because enough of their fans literally voted them to number 1 and 2 male and female character.

CYL variants were not locked to these four characters just because. They were specifically voted in, and could've been literally any character who was on the poll. Seasonal variants were picked by the developers themselves. And that's why the distinction is important to this discussion.

[Thane]

6 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

The reason I make a distinction between the CYL characters and the regular seasonal forms is because the CYL characters were explicitly created via fan vote. They were not locked to Ike, Roy, Lyn, and Lucina from the beginning of the game. They only have those costumes because enough of their fans literally voted them to number 1 and 2 male and female character.

CYL variants were not locked to these four characters just because. They were specifically voted in, and could've been literally any character who was on the poll. Seasonal variants were picked by the developers themselves. And that's why the distinction is important to this discussion.

They're also permanent additions and not "seasonal" at all.

[Dark Holy Elf]

@NekoKnight @Sunwoo

They still took up slots on a banner, and they still drew money from their fans in almost exactly the same way (I say "almost" because the single free pull possibly has some effect). Perhaps more to the point, they satisfied fans of those characters; a huge Ike fan who whaled for him would be less likely to turn around and whale for him again on a halloween banner a few weeks later, for instance. And finally, remember that the CYL banner itself was one the devs chose to create; they could easily have not done so.

@Nanima

I readily admit I'm making assumptions, and that these assumptions could be wrong. I assume that IntSys's primary motivation with FEH is to make money. I also assume that they consider their choices for banners in order to maximise income. They both have access to more data than either of us do, AND have more riding on interpreting that data correctly than we do.

You seem to be arguing (correct me if I misunderstand) that not only am I wrong, but that IntSys is wrong, and making poor decisions, when you don't have the data to support that besides some anecdotes about fans of less popular titles feeling pissed off (which only means anything if it causes them to drop the game). I could turn around and submit my own anecdote of my wife's reaction to the new banner being "yay, Camilla". Most fans want to see the characters they like and aren't going to religiously count how many characters have come from each game so far. Even most fans of Blazing Sword (etc.) are likely to regard this banner with a shrug and a "time to save my orbs" .

I do agree that the revenue for these characters is likely to decrease each time they are used. IntSys knows this and will choose characters appropriately. So yeah, we'll probably see Marth #2 before we see Chrom #5 for instance. But if it doesn't happen, I would take that as evidence of IntSys's internal research on the subject rather than as evidence of bias.

[Ledrert]

OKay, interesting... I'll be trying for grey and green for sure. I like everyone's art, tho.

[Sunwoo]

3 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

@NekoKnight @Sunwoo

They still took up slots on a banner, and they still drew money from their fans in almost exactly the same way (I say "almost" because the single free pull possibly has some effect). Perhaps more to the point, they satisfied fans of those characters; a huge Ike fan who whaled for him would be less likely to turn around and whale for him again on a halloween banner a few weeks later, for instance. And finally, remember that the CYL banner itself was one the devs chose to create; they could easily have not done so.

And why doesn't that logic apply to Xander, who was on both the spring banner and the summer banner? At the very least with Chrom, he was on the first and then the last seasonal banners of this year. Xander had two early seasonal banners, so why couldn't a Xander fan who whaled for him in the spring banner be less likely to whale for him again on a summer banner? Halloween is also not the only holiday in which they could've put Ike in, and the gap between CYL and the Halloween banner was more than just "a few weeks later". There was an entire month of dancers between them.

The development team may have chosen to create the CYL banner, yes, but the characters that got on them were NOT ones that they picked themselves. And that's the big difference that you don't seem to be getting. CYL characters were fan-picked. We knew when the poll went up, before the results came out, that the devs were going to do a CYL banner. Which is why people kept on asking when it was coming before it actually went up. CYL could've just as easily had different characters on it. Chrom, Hector, Tharja, and Camilla as CYL characters, for example. So no, it's not the same thing at all.

I get the feeling that because you personally don't have as much of a problem with the characters they are choosing for the seasonal banners, that you feel like people who don't share your view are invalid in feeling the way they do or overreacting. People don't like seeing their favorite characters being screwed over repeatedly, especially in favor for characters they dislike. And people who haven't had that similar experience of getting repeatedly fucked over with regards to character choice like that won't really understand the frustration.

[Time the Crestfallen]

13 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

They both have access to more data than either of us do, AND have more riding on interpreting that data correctly than we do.

Most fans want to see the characters they like and aren't going to religiously count how many characters have come from each game so far.

I do agree that the revenue for these characters is likely to decrease each time they are used. IntSys knows this and will choose characters appropriately. So yeah, we'll probably see Marth #2 before we see Chrom #5 for instance. But if it doesn't happen, I would take that as evidence of IntSys's internal research on the subject rather than as evidence of bias.

This is really the crux of any discussion of forum boards. For all we can discuss it and speculate, it ultimately comes down to two different things:

1) We don't have access to revenue data, while IntSys does.

2) Our board represents a very small minority of the community, and even if 95+% of us come to the same conclusion, that doesn't necessarily reflect the opinions of the wider community.

As much as I am willing to agree with most of what is said here, that doesn't change the fact that we (if you'll excuse the potentially elitist terminology) are the 'hardcore' audience and thus, are more likely to care about character diversity in seasonal banners. I imagine the more 'casual' audience, which is certainly the much larger majority, probably doesn't care as much and is just happy to get more variants of their favourites (I'm going to roll every version of Azura that comes out, because I'm shameless like that). Hell, there's a non-insignificant number of them who haven't played any of the games outside of Awakening, Fates, and maybe Smash Bros reps if you wanna count that.

Not that I mean to shut down potential discussion, that's not my intent at all, just that we can only account for community opinions, not the thoughts and opinions of the larger audience or the actual revenue numbers.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Phillius the Crestfallen

[Nanima]

3 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

@Nanima

I readily admit I'm making assumptions, and that these assumptions could be wrong. I assume that IntSys's primary motivation with FEH is to make money. I also assume that they consider their choices for banners in order to maximise income. They both have access to more data than either of us do, AND have more riding on interpreting that data correctly than we do.

You seem to be arguing (correct me if I misunderstand) that not only am I wrong, but that IntSys is wrong, and making poor decisions, when you don't have the data to support that besides some anecdotes about fans of less popular titles feeling pissed off (which only means anything if it causes them to drop the game). I could turn around and submit my own anecdote of my wife's reaction to the new banner being "yay, Camilla". Most fans want to see the characters they like and aren't going to religiously count how many characters have come from each game so far. Even most fans of Blazing Sword (etc.) are likely to regard this banner with a shrug and a "time to save my orbs" .

I do agree that the revenue for these characters is likely to decrease each time they are used. IntSys knows this and will choose characters appropriately. So yeah, we'll probably see Marth #2 before we see Chrom #5 for instance. But if it doesn't happen, I would take that as evidence of IntSys's internal research on the subject rather than as evidence of bias.

I never stated anything otherwise. Heck i even said "I do think Intsys feels the need to bank on what they perceive as the "safe" options for their festival banners.". They are going for maximum revenue, but just like I don't have the data to access their exact reasoning and basis for it, neither do you. We are both making assumptions here, but I also never said "Intsys just loves Nohr for itself.". They are Nohr biased for a money reason. Doesn't not make it a bias and aggravating for people who'd like to see literally anything else. 

And even if their data tells them otherwise, telling us to shut up and don't complain when they make a Japanese New Year banner and put Camilla and Azura as repeats on it.

 

[mcsilas]

Well....RIP Hinoka and Ryoma. It sucks to be a Hinoka fan :( .... such a shame she's not popular enough because I really like her design...

Anyway, at least Camilla dresses even more now the more times she has a new version of her. It's pretty decent actually. Azura as an axe flier is neat as well, since we don't really have any axe pegasus knights so this answers my question of who could it be- although another version of her isn't needed at least I do like her art and she buffs flier teams (and hey we have Iote's shield SS, I guess it's flier teams to get buffed now instead of armours?)

Still not happy these two are repeated BUT if they were made before Heroes's late releases then I guess that makes sense. Still miffed Camilla is here instead of Hinoka, but at least Camilla is a sword wyvern rider as well and a seasonal sword wielder (hmmm bamboo sword makes me think of kung fu swordmasters....maybe Karel, Ryoma or Navarre?)

Takumi's killer dagger is great though. Corrin looks nice in his art actually, even though I'm meh at his character. At least we have equal gender representation for the Corrins now.

But yeah I'm interested at least because of Flying Axura, so 8% banner isn't that much of a priority (I mean I was still baited a bit because I wanted to summon after a bad day...)

[Cute Chao]

Thing is, they've never taken a chance on seasonal non-3DS characters, aside from Lyn and Caeda.

I'd say, no matter what, Ike is a pretty safe bet. He appeared twice in the top 10 of the CYL poll. Why not take a chance here and there - I mean, they could even do it two known popular characters to two less 'safe' options and see what happens. Unless they're really taking all of their results from the stupid brides banner.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Cute Chao

[Stroud]

Nooo, I have to draw red again and abort mission Tharja.
The other color I will pull depends on the skills of the units. Maybe there is something which could help my A.Tiki.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Stroud

[Zangetsu]

I have 5 days to pull for W!Tharja & S!Lucina, afterward I have to focus on NY!Azura.

 

Fucking Christ InSyst!

[TheWill]

16 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

I have 5 days to pull for W!Tharja & S!Lucina, afterward I have to focus on NY!Azura.

 

Fucking Christ InSyst!

Honestly... 

Back to back seasonals (let alone the gratuitous amount of them in the first place) and Legendary Hero banner is beyond frustrating. I'd ask for a refund on money I've spent in the past if I was allowed to. :\

[Korath88]

Aside from the obvious draw of a flying singer, I'm not too sure whether I'm going to be spending orbs here, or on the 8% banner. I don't have any particular attachment to any fates character, so it's mostly just gameplay reasons for me.

[Othin]

8 hours ago, Liliesgrace said:

Not the very first ones no, but the ones that introduced new characters with all four colors represented like the first CYL set and Sacred Stones. Even the three character skill ones almost always had three different colors which was nice.

Banners having units of different colors rather than the same one really isn't helpful at all.

On the New Year's banner, the odds of a colorless orb being one of the two focus units is 5.77%, which is a 2.89% chance of each of Corrin and Takumi. If the banner instead had one unit of each color, the colorless orbs would have a 2.97% chance of being the one colorless focus unit. That's a tiny difference in the odds of getting the one you want, and a huge difference in the total chance of getting some focus character.

8 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

Yeah, I get that FE in general doesn't have a lot of men on flying things either. Which makes me wonder why they didn't bother to add in, like, Heath or Zeiss if they weren't shy about adding in a few FE6+7 characters. Besides, seasonal banners basically are a free-for-all and characters can use weapons they've never used and ride things that they can't ride in-game and be classes they otherwise can't reclass into. If they were going to put Camilla and Azura on flying mounts already, why not just make the entire banner a flying banner, especially since Christmas was all-armors? Flying bow would've been nice, too, they had no issue putting a bow armor or a mage armor. Or a bow cavalry.

They have a limited number of new unit types to introduce. I think they're avoiding burning through them too fast: this banner is the one with the first flying dancer, like how the other winter one is the one with the first red tome armor. We'll get the first bow flier on some later banner.

That doesn't explain why they introduced three new unit types on the Halloween banner, but I'm guessing their reasoning is something along those lines.

[Poimagic]

I'll be saving my orbs for this banner. My radar for this is Azura or Camilla>M!Corrin>Takumi. Azura and Camilla would be amazing for my flier emblem team.

[Reality]

Drawing Colorless

Takumi was my first 5 star ever, so I feel obliged to him.

Corrin is just because I like his design.  Actually I like his sword design too. And I already use people like Mae whose personality I hate in their main games anyway.

[Dark Holy Elf]

8 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

And why doesn't that logic apply to Xander, who was on both the spring banner and the summer banner? At the very least with Chrom, he was on the first and then the last seasonal banners of this year. Xander had two early seasonal banners, so why couldn't a Xander fan who whaled for him in the spring banner be less likely to whale for him again on a summer banner?

I don't disagree! Maybe Spring Xander was an unexpectedly popular draw so they felt safe using him again? Or maybe not. Regardless, I acknowledged in a previous post that if there's any one case that I suspect may be a bias on the devs' part, it's Xander. (There's even some other evidence for this like him being one of the only non-OCs to actually have a role in the plot.)

8 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

I get the feeling that because you personally don't have as much of a problem with the characters they are choosing for the seasonal banners, that you feel like people who don't share your view are invalid in feeling the way they do or overreacting. People don't like seeing their favorite characters being screwed over repeatedly, especially in favor for characters they dislike. And people who haven't had that similar experience of getting repeatedly fucked over with regards to character choice like that won't really understand the frustration.

My favourite lord in the series is Micaiah. Forget alternate forms, she can't get even get into the game once (nor, for that matter, can she get so much as a freaking trophy in Smash!). She's now the most popular character by far that this is the case for, and we recently even got a banner of "most popular characters not in the game yet... except Micaiah lol". So I understand the frustration, and I have at least as much cause as you.

However, using language like "shoved down our throat", "repeatedly fucked over", etc., feels to me that this is taking things too far. Character choices for a game like this aren't always going to go 100% the way you'd like (and/or the way you think they deserve to go). I think keeping perspective on that is good, and yes, I do find the level of whining about this subject to be overreacting. This goes not just for FEH but pretty much any game of this type where the devs choose what characters get in.

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

She's now the most popular character by far that this is the case for, and we recently even got a banner of "most popular characters not in the game yet... except Micaiah lol".

I think it's fair to assume that the reason Micaiah was left out of that was because she's already planned for leading an upcoming FE10 banner. Although who knows how long that'll take.

[Sayyyaka]

It's crazy that Kagami Mochi+ is the strongest dagger and inheritable.  It's basically Slaying Bow+ with a debuff effect.  I guess at this point they don't feel like fixing the other daggers.  I'm honestly not even sure how useful Deathly Dagger's refinement is in action.

[Shiki]

Just for the record:

- Robin (male, female, Summer, Christmas)
- Lucina (regular, Spring, CYL, Masked)
- Chrom (regular, Spring, Christmas)
- Tharja (regular, Rhajat, Christmas)
- Corrin (male, female, Summer, New Year)
- Azura (regular, Performing, New Year)
- Xander (regular, Spring, Summer)
- Camilla (regular, Spring, New Year)

While I'm not particularly biased to one or the other in that regard what these special banners undeniably do is to impete 'real' roster progress from these and other games. We're still missing Sumia, Maribelle, Kaze and Silas, to name a few important and even popular characters. Fates Gen2 was covered once a while ago but we only got the 2 royal children, Soleil and even worse a freaking clone in Rhajat. Count Shigure if you want.
Still nothing on Awakening kids though and let's not even forget Radiant Dawn or Thracia. Binding Blade has yet get to get a banner as well.

With the exception of Lucina and maybe the Avatars all of these spots could have made up 1-2 regular banners more in this year but they didn't. Rhajat is the worst offender since she is just in the guise of a regular unit.

[Othin]

1 hour ago, Sayyyaka said:

It's crazy that Kagami Mochi+ is the strongest dagger and inheritable.  It's basically Slaying Bow+ with a debuff effect.  I guess at this point they don't feel like fixing the other daggers.  I'm honestly not even sure how useful Deathly Dagger's refinement is in action.

It fits how they handled the other daggers through the refinery. When you refine a dagger, on top of the regular refinement bonuses, it automatically gets its Mt boosted to what a corresponding bow would have as well as getting its debuff extended to surrounding enemies. Those kinds of effects seem to be limited to weapons they've recognized as originally being underpowered, and new weapons being added now that the refinery is already out just start at whatever the baseline is supposed to be. So that's just what we should expect out of new daggers now.

[Poimagic]

11 minutes ago, Othin said:

It fits how they handled the other daggers through the refinery. When you refine a dagger, on top of the regular refinement bonuses, it automatically gets its Mt boosted to what a corresponding bow would have as well as getting its debuff extended to surrounding enemies. Those kinds of effects seem to be limited to weapons they've recognized as originally being underpowered, and new weapons being added now that the refinery is already out just start at whatever the baseline is supposed to be. So that's just what we should expect out of new daggers now.

That's awesome. And that's not including the daggers to come. Firesweep daggers, anti horse daggers, anti armor daggers, slaying/killing daggers, etc etc.