New Heroes: Fire and Ice!

[Sentinel07]

26 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

Well as I finally sat down and watched this trailer, I saw Fire and Ice.  Thought cool title!  Then I saw Ylgr!  Awesome!  Then Surtr!?  Wow!  Then I waited for the next character....maybe Hrid or original Veronica or Bruno, but instead it just said new paralogue!  

Anyways I have been outspoken in my support of original characters, as I view them as the focus of this game.  Sorcery blade, I wonder what inheritance restrictions are on it.  Seems like it would be insane on any units with DC weapons.  Then she also has Speed tactic and chill speed...I mean this is grade A fodder.  Then you look at Surtr....my god what a C skill, and that A skill is one of the ultimate enemy phase skills love the guard effect on top of more defense.  Plus his weapon that 20 damage effect is pretty impressive.  Wait for official stats but these units as far as skills and power potential seem very much worth having.  

I am trying to abstain from summoning on normal banners, but I will probably pull all blues and greens I see on that first circle where we get the free summon.  Hard to pass up on discounted rate to pull one of these two.  Watch it be all reds and colorless :(

I view the OC's similarly, hence why I always look forward to them.

[Ice Dragon]

54 minutes ago, SuperNova125 said:

Also this is a 3% banner which means that there is somewhere near a 1.5 % chance for each I think. I also don't care about beast units or the radiant dawn and binding blade banners and I have somewhere around 60 orbs so might pull for one Surtr.

If you pull all five summons from every summoning session, then yes, you'll have a 1.5% chance for each.

However, if you snipe, you have a 7.9% chance of pulling Surtr from a green orb and a 5.5% chance of pulling Ylgr from a blue orb.

 

Basically, the way you get these numbers per color is you divide by what percentage of the total orbs is that color. 19% of orbs are green (green has the fewest characters, so it ends up less than 25%), and 1.5% / 19% = 0.015 / 0.19 = 0.079 = 7.9%.

[dethneer]

@Ice Dragon Do you know how to calculate expected value for # of orbs required to pull a focus unit while sniping? The higher percentage chance of getting a Surtr from a green orb should be partially offset by green orbs appearing with less frequency, right? So you don't actually expect to pull Surtr every 12.66 summons despite 7.9% because sometimes green wouldn't appear and you would need to blow 5 orbs to pull one of the other colors.

I actually want Ylgr and not Surtr so I can get that sweet Speed Tactic, and I'm guesstimating ~110ish orbs expected value to pull one of her, but my maths isn't good enough to know if that's precisely right.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

After the Adrift banner, this one just feels...hollow. I'm not mad or disappointed, I'm drained. I figured these characters would come at some point, it's not surprising and there's nothing much to get excited about. This one is basically a big pile of...serviceable averageness.

[Ice Dragon]

5 minutes ago, dethneer said:

@Ice Dragon Do you know how to calculate expected value for # of orbs required to pull a focus unit while sniping? The higher percentage chance of getting a Surtr from a green orb should be partially offset by green orbs appearing with less frequency, right? So you don't actually expect to pull Surtr every 12.66 summons despite 7.9% because sometimes green wouldn't appear and you would need to blow 5 orbs to pull one of the other colors.

I actually want Ylgr and not Surtr so I can get that sweet Speed Tactic, and I'm guesstimating ~110ish orbs expected value to pull one of her, but my maths isn't good enough to know if that's precisely right.

The probability of a session containing zero umbrellas of a given color is equal to

(1 - [probability of a single orb being that color]) ^ 5

For this banner, there is a 27% chance (rounding to the nearest percent) of a single orb being blue, so the probability of getting zero blues in a session is

(1 - 0.27) ^ 5 = 0.73 ^ 5 = 0.20 = 20%

 

To get a ballpark average number of orbs needed to summon one copy of a character, you can use the following:

((5 orbs) / [probability of an orb of matching color having the character you want]) / (1 - [probability of a session containing zero of that color])

For Ylgr, it would be

((5 orbs) / 0.055) / (1 - 0.20) = (91 orbs) / (0.80) = 114 orbs

[dethneer]

@Ice Dragon That was great, thank you!

[mampfoid]

Nothing against OC characters, but it's a strange way to distribute them. Those five OCs are nice, but they don't fill this long gap to book III. It just feels stretchy. 

Won't pull from this banner, even if SPD tactic is tempting. 

3 hours ago, Glennstavos said:

Hey, they're not alts. And am I going crazy or did we just get the addition of a non-alt armor unit in the normal summoning pool? That's only happened three times in the game's entire history. Amelia, Hardin, now Surtr. 

What about Zeglius? (I know his lazy art should make him count 100% alt.)

Also M!Grima could count as a new character, even if he is called "Robin". 

Apart from that, yeah Surtr is one of the few really "new" additions to the permanent armor pool. 

3 hours ago, Alkaid said:

Just noticed the Guard effect on Steady Stance 4. Jesus Christ.

Yeah, Death Blow 4 didn't have an additional effect. I wonder what it means for other less popular skills and their 4th level. 

For me it's strange to have a combined A/B skill on A. 

2 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

Also, did anyone expect Stance 4 to be more than just Def+8? Right now it's a reverse Steady Breath and (unless it's treated differently to SS3) inheritable to all units. 

That's really surprising. What secondary effect will be on level 4 Darting/Fierce/Warding stance? What about the mixed Stance skills? 

[Xenomata]

I don't think I ever gave my opinions on each unit...

Why they went with Ylgr and not the character who actually holds a sword in his artwork is beyond me, but whatever. We didn't need another sword unit when just about every niche that can be given to swords has been accounted for so far.

Anyways, Sylgr seems to pretty much guarantee Ylgr will double so long as she has even one point of speed more than the enemy. Sorcery Blade grants Adeptive Damage so long as she is next to someone, so she'll be something like Felicia if Felicia had better Attack. Given all the Speed, jury is out on if she'll be Speed focused. At least Spd Tactic is now going to be in the general summoning pool (After the banner expires that is). I get the feeling that Gamepedia is going to go on about how she needs the Cloud Maiouga like they have every other Dagger unit...

Surtr... okay I'm not that big a fan of him, but DAMN he sounds cool. At least much better than the generic evil tyrant voice I gave him in my head (and no I've never heard his Special Trigger quotes til now). He's also very big. Oh right, as a unit... uh, I really don't think the combo of Steady Stance 4 and Wary Fighter is a good one, since unless you are against Bold Fighter armors they're not going to trigger their Special anyways, not unless you replace it with Vengeful Fighter. Sinmara and Surtr's Menace together mean he's going to be a threat to any unit who can't kill him, given he's going to do what is equal to almost half of a units total HP AND inflict Spectrum Debuff on the enemy. In the end, he looks to be a very defensive unit who also counts on forcing the enemy to end their turn around him. Not that it'll be hard, given he's an enemy phase Armor.

[Garlyle]

So this is the Muspell banner 2, which means another chance for me to save up some orbs (up to 300 at this point). But wait, there's only 2 new heroes? Nintendo, IS, what are you doing? After the Adrift banner, this will defineately turn people away from the game, it's a good thing Aether Raid came out already. I seriously think the game should release more new characters from old Fire Emblem game, there's still so many characters we can add that people love and not here yet.

Anyway, onto the characters.

Ylgr, focus on speed. Great fodder, but otherwise the new version of Felicia currently. It's a bit weird that if she's faster than the enemy, she makes herself even faster to do a guaranteed double attack. 38 health is not bad and leaves room for other stats. But if her stats are bad, she's still a great fodder. Sorcery Blade 3 looks inheritable with the number after it, and it can bring some dangerous combos with Brave weapons. Spd Tactic was L!Lyn only until now.

Surtr, basicly says stay far away. If you go for the kill, do it instantly. His focus is Def and Hp, I mean 50 HP is something not many units have. Also Wary Fighter 3. If you don't kill him, Sinmara and Surtr's Menace pretty much guarantees your death. And Bonfire. Steady Stance 4 felt like the death of Steady Breath, but then I realized that it's Steady Breath + Guard. Fodder for only Steady 4, but I predict a strong stat spread for him as well.

I'll open a free green orb. Either Surtr or pitybroken by Lewyn would make my day. Oh who am I kidding, it's going to be another Gunter.

[Punished Dayni]

So, Surtr's in after all. When Bruno?

Ylgr's got a blue shuriken and it's her name with an S. It gives speed and if she's faster than an enemy she gets swift sparrow and the usual def/res reduction. She also has Glimmer, Spd Tactic, Chill Spd and a skill that does adaptive damage. Ylgr is ridiculous. And according to her special quote a little psycho. Surtr has his weapon (REALLY?), Bonfire, Wary Fighter, Steady Stance 4 (THE POWERCREEP) which gives +8 and reduces enemy cooldown (Okay that's serious powercreep) and Surtr's Menace which gives +4 to all stats and reduces enemy stats by the same if he's in 2 spaces. So don't stand so close to Surtr. And so we see there's only 2 units. REALLY? Is Loki trying to resurrect the guy?

I'm not going to lie, I have a tidy sum on orbs right now. I am pretty tempted because both seem a bit ridiculous. Surtr would be mostly for fodder though while Ylgr seems nuts in the right hands. I'm going to have to think on this and wonder will Hrid ever get in.

[Rinco]

I'm pretty confident that Hrid is the Legendary Hero for this month and the GHB is either Bruno or Veronica. 

[Sasori]

I think I would have taken another fateswakening banner over this. I'm not opposed to OC's on principle, but there are only two of them and neither Sutr, nor Ylgr ever showed the slightest hint of being interesting. The equally boring Hdrid now being a lock in for a legendary is also not good news for me.

[Ice Dragon]

36 minutes ago, mampfoid said:

For me it's strange to have a combined A/B skill on A. 

We already had this with Bold Fighter, Vengeful Fighter, and Special Fighter having Special charge rate modification, which is normally a passive A effect, in the B slot.

[Garlyle]

Small note on Surtr, he did 27 extra damage when Bonfire triggered, which means 54 damage. Possible increase comes 3 from weapon, 8 from SS4 and 4 from Menace.

[Hilda]

wouldnt be surprised if Yilgr had gen 2 ranged stats and trainee bonus, sinilar like kliff got it. Soooo she might be quite good maybe

[Mau]

Well I sure wasn't expecting any trailer to disappoint me more than the last one, but they managed it anyway.

I've been looking forward like mad to this trailer since the last one came out, cause I'm practically begging for something to summon for at this point. I don't give a fig about Aether Raids so at this point summoning and building new units is the only thing that interests me. Literally anything actually new would've excited me but it's just two OCs I don't care about instead :(

I'm so tired of just opening up the game every day for the daily orbs without any kind of motivation, I really wish book 3 would come sooner. Might still summon for any of these two if their skills are really useful for my fav units but if not then it's another skip. I have 120 orbs now, that's only the second time during the lifetime of this game that I managed to get this many, that really says something about how bored I am with it now lol.

If Hrid is the next GHB and is sword unit then I at least hope he's on a horse cause a red horse I like is the only thing I'm really missing and I kinda dig Hrid's design. I sure hope he's the GHB and not the legendary hero, it's the only thing I would rather see alts on heh.

Well here goes more waiting for the next (hopefully) new thing.

[mampfoid]

34 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

We already had this with Bold Fighter, Vengeful Fighter, and Special Fighter having Special charge rate modification, which is normally a passive A effect, in the B slot.

Yeah, I was not the biggest fan of their introduction either. 

In my opinion keeping A/B/C effects separate would be better. There is still the chance to mix skills by seal or weapon effect. 

[Diovani Bressan]

3 hours ago, Tybrosion said:

That Forging Bonds may well be actually tied to the legendary banner instead. It only starts on the same day as that banner.

Well, Gunnthrá will be in this month banner, so once the legendary banner starts, all four Nifl siblings will be available (if Hríd is the GHB, of course). So it's possible the Nifl siblings being in the Forging Bonds.... I want Gunnthrá's Hat as accessory.

[Stroud]

Easy skip and nice that Speed Tactics is not only limited to Legendary Lyn anymore. 

[TheWill]

5 hours ago, Alkaid said:

It was basically a "pipe down, we'll get to you guys at some point." IS basically admits those groups are fans are not their priority right now, as they have bigger fish to fry with seasonals, OCs and alts. This OC banner make sense in its timing, though, and only the content of it (Surtr being kind of disgusting and Hrid MIA) should really be objectionable. As much as I personally liked the Fates banner, it's certainly something they could have put out at almost any point, especially when Fates just had a banner last month too.

Oh, absolutely. I'd be a lot less upset if they distributed the banners more fairly - although as you said, they have other priorities right now, I'm just... unhappy with the treatment of half the series at this point. I've been waiting for a Valentia, Magvel, Tellius, Binding Blade and to a lesser extent, an Archanea and (non-alt) Thracia banner for such a long time and to see half of these used as a pre-emptive attempt to halt backlash makes it even more frustrating for me. The only excuse for Binding Blade that I could see justifying the wait is a potential Echoes, but even then...

5 hours ago, Silverly said:

I honestly don’t mind this banner at all. Ylgr at the very least I felt should have been added at some point. Surtr was strange and unexpected, but not something that gets me upset. I might try for Ylgr, but I’ll likely stay my hand.

To be fair, her voice lines were added to the game like two months ago. So we knew she'd be playable, I just don't agree with the context of which it happened. A two-person banner feels unnecessary and Hrid definitely shouldn't be a Legendary Hero, even tho it's definitely hinting towards it. 

[Etrurian emperor]

I wonder how the next forging bonds is going to work. I assumed it would focus on this banner but it only has two characters.

[Zeo]

Uninterested, even if the powercreep is pretty ridiculous. If one of them falls into my lap cool, otherwise easy skip.

[Diovani Bressan]

It's funny how Banner's Surtr looks to be more challenging than Chapter 13's Surtr, who had Distant Def, Cancel Affinity, Panic Ploy and Vengeance.

[Shiki]

"IS planned everything months in advance."
This is excessively poor planning then and they should learn how to be flexible.

It isn't necessarily the characters itself that bother me with this one. But it's everything around it.
1. Holy cow, powercreep. What the hell is up with Steady Stance 4? Is Sorcery Blade really the best attempt to fix daggers, making all of them ranged Breaths?
2. A banner with 2 characters isn't technically bad; it's very questionable if it last 3 weeks and even gets a FB event. Sure, there will be a GHB to fill a 3rd character but it's still very strange for them to put this here right now. It would have been more plausable to switch this with the Fates banner.

Never mind that Loki really should have been the 3rd character here. Considering how IS dedicates the recent paralogues to her this would have been the far better place to make her available.
I know it's petty to complain afterwards but if you take Loki out of Brave Redux we would have gotten either Haar (the next non-beast character) or regular Charlotte (with the RD announcement and gender presentation in mind) instead.

Hrid being the LH for this month doesn't seem likely either. Aren't we getting a Colorless this month? I rather seem him being the GHB which would be questionable either way because Sutr would have fit far better for that role (making this banner entirely Nifl-based, contrasting the Muspell banner).

November 2018 is really the most disappointing month by far.

[Cute Chao]

Still disappointed with no Hrid and no Bruno. I like both of their designs and want them as characters. I don't mind they're adding the ocs, that doesn't disappoint me. However, it feels they could have added all the ocs and have done with Book 1 and 2 ocs. Could've had Hrid, Ylgr, Sutr banner with Bruno GHB and maybe Veronica TT. Or Veronica, Surtr, Ylgr with Bruno GHB and Hrid legendary. I don't like this new two person banner and dread that it might be a new trend >.< I don't care that it increases pull rates. I like a lot of Fire Emblem characters and would prefer to see them in the game >.< If they cared about increasing pull rates, they could make old unit banners two person focus, or even add two two person new banners at a time. This way just sucks to me and I'm hoping it's a one off. I've fed it back and disliked the video, for any good it will do. I've also not paid in to the monthly orbs for the first time since that started.