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Arctic Mafia (Game Thread)

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haven't read the thread other than looking at the flips. hope you guys are ready to win the game today and give me an easy win without doing anything!!!

Baldrick you're probably town based on this page bc you would have counterwagoned Sully if you were scum, so tell me who's town and who's scum please

gotta finish work and run some errands and I''ll start reading the thread after that in a few hours. cheers.

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On 1/6/2019 at 1:55 PM, Baldrick said:

Based on this, I’m PoEing Jester and RAD. The former already has his interaction with me on claire’s wagon. For RAD, I doubt he would propose a CFD on his buddy for the purposes of WIFOM. At the very least, I think overestimating the subtlety of the scum team would be a bad move on my part.

Both Kaif and Bart voted Weiner at a time when it could easily have guaranteed his lynch. From what I remember of being scum with Bart in TPP, I don’t feel he would be confident enough to carry on his own. We pinned our hopes on the most active mafia member (SB), and Weiner was more active than Bart D2.

Next I will look into sully/shinori/xnad

 

On 1/7/2019 at 12:51 AM, Baldrick said:

My best guess as to what [Xnad believes] Jester's agenda is that he was trying to mislynch weiner. Xnad's read not changing since yesterday, when we have new information on weiner, is what a non-natural read progression actually looks like.

27 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

My best guess is that [Sully] was killed because mafia knew his role, there's nothing in his Day 3 content that would make anyone want to eliminate him.

I think the only situation scumnori makes a push on sully, and then kills him is if he's given up. I'd be more inclined to believe he may have been shot to make Shinori look worse?

##vote: @XnadrojX

 

@BBM Here's where my reads are at. If you don't agree with this lynch, you'll have to convince me why I'm wrong to PoE one of the others.

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Xnad voted Jester day 2, with the explanation.

This feels soooooo agenda-driven. In fact, I think their Day 2 has been reeking of nothing but agenda so far.

He quoted this post from Jester:

[Weiner's] unvote was formatted wrong so the script didn't catch it. My bad though because I also missed that, but it doesn't change the fact that there was no vote activity from you until page 16, even though you were quite active in the thread.


How does me making the point make it any less of a point?

Your reluctance to vote seems like it comes from the perspective of not wanting to draw attention.
How convinient of you to handwave the two largest wagons. Iirc you specifically put both of them as null in a readlist.

What I take from this is that Xnad thinks Jester is trying to ML Weiner, though it's pretty vague.

Fast forward to day 3, when he posts his lynch priority.

weinerboy > Jester's Gestures > Shinori = Bart > Kaif > RAD =  Sully > Baldrick

weinerboy is obvious.

I scumread Jester's Gestures from yesterday, posts felt very agenda-driven, I don't feel like their progressions are natural and make me feel like they're trying to engineer something.

Shinori and Bart because I have no clue on them and wouldn't mind them dying.

Athena had flipped town oracle and revealed Weiner to be mafia.

Now, if I was scumreading someone who I thought was trying to get one of my townreads lynched, and that townread flipped mafia, I would re-evaluate my read, whether it makes sense as a bus rather than a ML push. Xnad didn't, so I doubt he's legitimately scumhunting.

 

P.S. There's also some stuff about his "forgetting mafia kill people at night" that I grilled him about earlier, but I'm not as confident that's alignment indicative so I won't expand on it here.

@RADicate On your site, is it often the case that mafia don't have nightkills?

 

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I suppose the others weren't eagerly awaiting the start of the day phase like I was. I should probably take a break.

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1 hour ago, Baldrick said:

I suppose the others weren't eagerly awaiting the start of the day phase like I was. I should probably take a break.

sorry baldy, motivation is hard to come by; i’ll get my posting barrage in before nights end. That aside, popped in to answer your question (is it common for scum to have NKs from mine/xnad’s home site). The answer being yes, scum almost always has an NK. 

Granted like i said, i sustain this as NAI even with that knowledge

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lost my post.. what a pain. here’s a tldr

@XnadrojXbreak down where you stand with jester. Are they still scum? Does the EoD2 affect that at all (wrt their hard defense of claire even ignoring self pres)

@Kaifwhere are you at in general atm, i have no reason for you not to be in the POE in the moment, get talking or i’ll get boppin 

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1 minute ago, Jester's Gestures said:

This is pretty hilarious ngl. Xnad you're making us all look dumb through osmosis. 

osmosis im dead irl

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4 hours ago, Baldrick said:

My best guess is that he was killed because mafia knew his role, there's nothing in his Day 3 content that would make anyone want to eliminate him.

I think the only situation scumnori makes a push on sully, and then kills him is if he's given up. I'd be more inclined to believe he may have been shot to make Shinori look worse?

The other option is that the last mafia has no idea what they're doing.

Pushing Sully and then killing him might be a WIFOM attempt? Especially since the push wasn't really doing anything.

Idk about you, but I really have trouble seeing townori push Sully for EOD2 without reading EOD2.

##Vote: @BBM

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i'm not gonna lie bart I thought you'd already gotten mislynched until I got the notification about you voting me. anyways I don't really have any way to explain shinori's actions so you can decide based on my other content whether you want to base your read of my slot more on shinori or more on me.

ok so I've read up to the end of D1 and am taking a break now with some thoughts that are basically based only on d1 + d4 with foreknowledge of the flips. Rad is my strongest d1 scumread of the people who are still alive. His D1 just felt really lacking in that he was around fairly regularly but made a lot of fluff posts without much content. his opening post really irked me cuz it took both sides of claire pushing bart at the time by calling claire weirdly defensive and then sheeping their case on bart.

his marth vote also felt like a chainsaw defence of ichigo. his entire stance towards ichigo feels scummy because he just townreads ichigo for his general playstyle rather than because of that playstyle actually being alignment indicative in any way. the caveat of "only if he provides more content" is also an easy way to walk back a defence of a weak teammate if necessary. ichigo never actually provides any good content but rad still doesn't really follow up here.

I will say that the initiative to ask claire for past games of theirs to read is good but at least as of d1 rad never provides any analysis based on it so it's pretty empty. ##Vote: @RADicate

I also didn't like Amy's play but have read 0 of kaif's posts so far so overall read pending

I see your xnad case Baldrick but as of d1 I didn't really feel bad about his posts. your case is mostly d2 based though so I'll be on the lookout for it.

also baldrick I was sad originally when I realized that weiner had an oracle flip on him because it meant my read on your d3 end wasnt valid but then I saw that you subbed in for via and my read was saved!!!

not sure if people still want to lynch Bart but they shouldnt. ichigo's vote here on d1 was clear scum wagoning onto town.

not currently interested in lynching Jester either. not sure if ichigo gets lynched d1 without his vote. a bus isn't impossible given that ichigo wasnt playing well but he's at the bottom of my PoE.

in summary thinking rad >> kaif > xnad > jester atm

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@BartozioIf he's sick and forcing himself to post something of substance, he might. Though the subsequent sub-out means I can't assume it definitely isn't a gambit of some kind.

 

2 hours ago, BBM said:

his opening post really irked me cuz it took both sides of claire pushing bart at the time by calling claire weirdly defensive and then sheeping their case on bart.

You can find someone's logic good while not liking their tone. Unless you're saying he shouldn't have brought up the tone if he was also going to talk about the logic.

2 hours ago, BBM said:

his marth vote also felt like a chainsaw defence of ichigo.

What bothers me about the Marth read is that he put effort into interacting with Marth, and his read seemed to progress based on it, but his vote remained on Marth.

@RADicate Explain this? You said you felt better about Marth and acknowledged Ichigo wasn't delivering on content, why did you feel your vote was better on Marth?

 

2 hours ago, BBM said:

I see your xnad case Baldrick but as of d1 I didn't really feel bad about his posts. your case is mostly d2 based though so I'll be on the lookout for it.

Yeah, but I probably should skim his D1 at the very least.

Xnad on day 1 sheeped Ampharos on RAD. He seemed to joke around with RAD more than trying to push him, and gave a token look at Marth's wagon and nothing on Ichigo's wagon. His D1 play fits the narrative of him not trying to scumhunt, just look busy.

2 hours ago, BBM said:

also baldrick I was sad originally when I realized that weiner had an oracle flip on him because it meant my read on your d3 end wasnt valid but then I saw that you subbed in for via and my read was saved!!!

And there was much rejoicing. (Yaaaay)

 

 

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OK look, sometimes I'm just retarded, you're reading too deeply into me being dumb.

weiner being scum makes me feel a bit better on jester, but not by that much. I still don't know who jester is, but there are people (looking at you fen) who will shade/bus teammates for weird reasons. Also the "agenda-driven" was me saying I didn't like how the post flowed, didn't feel like a conclusion and felt more of an objective to achieve.

 

##Vote: @Kaif

 

it's between this and jester at this point, and jester sure as hell ain't getting any traction.

 

I'm going to take my time, it's like 8v1 rn, there isn't much reason to hurry 

 

 

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ok I finished catching up. updated lynch priority is rad >> xnad > kaif > jester.

i don't agree with Bart's analysis of rad/xnad being town/town interactions. if rad is scum sure he walls off xnad as a lynch candidate but it's an easy pocket to carry through the rest of the game. this was also before weiner got lynched so at that point walling off one lynch candidate wasn't even that bad. and speaking of weiner the rad/weiner interactions are also very suspicious. rad begins d2 by questioning weiner pretty heavily about a bunch of stuff and then ends up with a scumlean on him. this exchange is probably rad's best stretch of content in the game but he never votes weiner and in fact at eod2 is actively trying to dissuade people from voting weiner.

rad is allowed to separately think that the tone is weird and the logic is good but it's just weird to like the logic so much as to sheep it if you don't like the tone. as town i'm always pretty uncomfortable when this happens and have the two things cancel each other out rather than pursue both things simultaneously. i don't want to spend too much more time talking about this point though tbh because the bulk of my case is really the ichigo/weiner interactions. if it was just this i wouldn't be voting rad, especially given how early it happened.

baldrick's xnad case on his d2 and d1 is pretty decent now that I'm fully caught up so I bumped him up to 2nd ahead of kaif. I didn't like xnad's vote on jester because it seemed kinda borne of the fact that jester was trying to shooting down a townread on xnad.

i'm pretty conflicted on the amy/kaif slot. on the one hand I'm not sure what Shinori and others were tlaking about- I got a pretty clear Honeybottoms vibe to Amy's early posts in that they were just throwing out stuff without backing it up with conviction (aka votes). their excuse of being lazy probably took more time/effort than actually voting would have. their only other real content was a listpost that ended with a prodvote. the logic on bart here is actually okay but again there isn't really any commitment here.

i'm pretty tired right now so I'll try to engage rad/xnad more tomorrow with questions and stuff.

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Day 1:
Ichigo (5): Marth, Athena, Bart, Sully, Baldrick
Marth (2): RAD, Ichigo
RAD (2): Kaif, Xnad
Athena_57 (1): Claire
Jester (1): weiner
Not voting (2): BBM, Jester

Day 2:
Claire (5): Athena, Sully, weiner, Baldrick, RAD
weiner (4): Jester, Claire, Kaif, Bart
Jester (2): Xnad, BBM

Day 3:
weiner (6): Jester, Xnad, Kaif, Bart, Baldrick, RAD

Sully (1): BBM
Not voting (2): Sully, weiner

Kaif's D2 vote on weiner looks good. Bart looks really clean; I don't see a double bus coming from him. RAD has voted with Ichigo D1 and then with weiner D2. At one point D1 all of them were on Marth; not the greatest look for him. BBM slot no voting D1 and not voting the confirmed D3 is strange. Baldrick slot has been on all lynches, but he's also a playmaker and Via was extremely town from tone. Xnad doesn't stand out vote-wise.
Kinda annoyed I had to retype this because I closed my tab on accident and it didn't save.

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25 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

@BartozioIf he's sick and forcing himself to post something of substance, he might. Though the subsequent sub-out means I can't assume it definitely isn't a gambit of some kind.

 

You can find someone's logic good while not liking their tone. Unless you're saying he shouldn't have brought up the tone if he was also going to talk about the logic.

What bothers me about the Marth read is that he put effort into interacting with Marth, and his read seemed to progress based on it, but his vote remained on Marth.

@RADicate Explain this? You said you felt better about Marth and acknowledged Ichigo wasn't delivering on content, why did you feel your vote was better on Marth?

 

Yeah, but I probably should skim his D1 at the very least.

Xnad on day 1 sheeped Ampharos on RAD. He seemed to joke around with RAD more than trying to push him, and gave a token look at Marth's wagon and nothing on Ichigo's wagon. His D1 play fits the narrative of him not trying to scumhunt, just look busy.

And there was much rejoicing. (Yaaaay)

 

 

Telling ichigo that i was gonna lynch him if he didnt provide more content is basically just the best way i know to get someone off their butt tbh. The follow through doesnt need to be there for me to accomplish my intended goal (even if that goal failed.) 

Wrt marth, for lack off a better way to word it i felt less bad than before but didnt have anything stronger at that point to put my lynch onto?  D1 sucks dont @ me 

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