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August's Legendary + Double Special Heroes Speculation: Say Goodbye to Your Orbs


daisy jane
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2 minutes ago, Florete said:

I know you think Elincia will get a legendary before Micaiah (which I and likely many others do not)

...Wait, when did I say this, exactly? I don't remember at all. I think either or could get a legendary before the other. If I've said otherwise, I've forgotten entirely and don't know why I would have said it.

Otherwise, fair enough.

 

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I don't really see a problem with Sothe getting a legendary alt before Micaiah. Julia got one before either Leif and Seliph plus Ryoma and Azura got legendary status before Corrin (who doesn't have a legendary alt at all yet). Of course, I never played the Tellius games so I don't know who is considered 'significant' outside of Ike and Micaiah.

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9 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

I don't really see a problem with Sothe getting a legendary alt before Micaiah. Julia got one before either Leif and Seliph plus Ryoma and Azura got legendary status before Corrin (who doesn't have a legendary alt at all yet). Of course, I never played the Tellius games so I don't know who is considered 'significant' outside of Ike and Micaiah.

If Sothe were female and/or had significant popularity, I could see it. His relevance is similar to Lyn's and his popularity is average-ish, so I can't see him getting a legendary before Micaiah and Elincia.

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9 minutes ago, MirandaFriege said:

A character must be popular to have a Legendary alt?

Precedent suggests yes.

Looking at how characters with legendary alts scored on CYL4:

  • 1. Edelgard (74,617)
  • 4. Marth (44,107)
  • 8. Eirika (26,040)
  • 10. Chrom (15,595)
  • 11. Seliph (15,593)
  • 23. Robin F (7,532)
  • 28. Azura (6,264)
  • 57. Tiki Y (3,031)
  • 90. Leif (1,828)
  • 92. Ryoma (1,779)
  • 138. Julia (1,109)

The others being Ike, Lyn, Roy, Lucina, Hector, Celica, Ephraim, Alm, and Eliwood, all of whom were not eligible for CYL4 because they already won a past CYL.

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27 minutes ago, MirandaFriege said:

A character must be popular to have a Legendary alt?

Who said they "must" be popular to get a legendary alt? I certainly didn't. But it's only natural that IS would want to prioritize more popular characters for legendary alts, and the characters who would be considered more eligible for legendaries - the protagonists and important characters - are naturally more popular than other randos.

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20 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

Well. I was pretty much on point - except for Narcian. 
he's going to be in October. 
with Palla. (damnit).

Yeah, mildly unfortunate for people wanting the trio (like myself), but it's even worse news for people who want Young Marth, because his appearance rate as a 4* focus is either halved from having to share, or he's pushed back to next year. Odd decision as they could have easily had one 4* focus in each banner instead.

I'll probably do a token full round on this once I get 15 orbs.

Edited by Humanoid
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i have no idea what they are going to do with that glut of demotes coming up(esp. with a huge chunk of them being blue). 
I really wanted Merges on my Palla and Est would have been a consolation because she's actually the only Whitewing i don't have - so i mean. i guess i'm gonna try for her next year along with Fir i suppose). 
 

Narcian is okay. - but i mean he's really more of a "okay i have him. or okay i have his lance." I know everyone is going gaga over Flowing Lance but I think Gilfork is good too (and you don't have to worry about the solo conditions all the time)

Alfonse  had Nino to deal with (but nino wasn't that bad (and she again had a fighter skill, and a rare arena rally). so good consolation prize. Idunn had Anna (again prety decent bow, and good arena food).  Palla gets to share with.... Lance Exp. 3?

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Assuming my orbs aren't eaten by some unexpected big event (unlikely since the half-year anniversary was probably the last event until Christmas), I'll probably try for merges up until the point I get one 5-star Narcian or two Trios, then bail on blue. Will also try for up to two copies of Duo Micaiah if she's there of course. (I tend to just go for +1 or +2 on seasonals that I want, depending on whether the second merge gives useful offensive stats)

 

EDIT: Upcoming candidates (source)

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Edited by Humanoid
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Wait, no demotes? That's so weird after last time.

2 hours ago, Humanoid said:

Yeah, mildly unfortunate for people wanting the trio (like myself), but it's even worse news for people who want Young Marth, because his appearance rate as a 4* focus is either halved from having to share, or he's pushed back to next year. Odd decision as they could have easily had one 4* focus in each banner instead.

I'll probably do a token full round on this once I get 15 orbs.

It's not necessarily halved. What I've been expecting is for them to end up featuring two demotes per banner but increasing the 4* focus rate to 6%, to match the 5* focus rate. So maybe their plan is to start that pattern with the next one, with a lineup of like Marth/Oboro/Narcian/Palla/Merric/Nailah/Micaiah. Maybe rounding it out with Genny or Fjorm?

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2 hours ago, SuperNova125 said:

When is Rafiel expected to be rerun? December if I am not mistaken? 

It depends. If they're willing to start putting multiple demotes on one banner, December seems most likely. If not, who knows. 

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I wonder if having 2 4* focus is a possibility. I don't see anything wrong with that, but I was quite surprised we didn't have Narcian this month. It makes the decision of skipping NY Anna last time kinda weird.

If they go with "only one 4* focus per banner", Rafiel will be in February.

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12 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I wonder if having 2 4* focus is a possibility. I don't see anything wrong with that, but I was quite surprised we didn't have Narcian this month. It makes the decision of skipping NY Anna last time kinda weird.

If they go with "only one 4* focus per banner", Rafiel will be in February.

Well they kinda have to soon, as a quarter of all seasonals will be 4*. Otherwise they'd have to have up to a dozen of these re-runs a year just to keep up.

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Looks like I actually care about only half the characters on this (Double Special) and am ok with skipping. Wanted to free pull red, but no red nodes. So, pulled blue to see if I'd get Rudolf. Got feathers. That's fine; more orbs for a banner I actually want to pull on. 🙂

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21 hours ago, Flying Shogi said:

Here's to hoping Cadea shares red with Marth and not Oboro on the next banner. 

yeah i am gonna need a hard pass on that. Marth blocked me from getting anymore than 1 caeda. and truthfully i don't need anymore. 
Oboro has a good inheritable sword (and more importantly a rare arena rally+) so truthfully i would really want Caeda to share with Oboro. (even if i didn't have Marth at +10 i wouldn't want those two to share). (Same as i woudn't want Narcian/Est to share this time etiher). people who got boned one way or the other on the debut shouldn't have to dodge that minefield again on a double special hero banner

 

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58 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

yeah i am gonna need a hard pass on that. Marth blocked me from getting anymore than 1 caeda. and truthfully i don't need anymore. 
Oboro has a good inheritable sword (and more importantly a rare arena rally+) so truthfully i would really want Caeda to share with Oboro. (even if i didn't have Marth at +10 i wouldn't want those two to share). (Same as i woudn't want Narcian/Est to share this time etiher). people who got boned one way or the other on the debut shouldn't have to dodge that minefield again on a double special hero banner

To each their own. I most likely won't be using Marth that much but his kit be more useful(to me at least) than that of Oboro's if I did get him. If I had a choice, I'd rather it be Caeda and Joshua but I doubt that's happening. 

Edited by Flying Shogi
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From October's Double Special, I am kinda interested on Green. Bride Nailah and Young Merric? That's quite nice.

But maye I skip it, since the October legendary banner looks pretty good, with Chrom, Hel and Edelgard. Maybe Dimitri will appear there... who knows!

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7 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

From October's Double Special, I am kinda interested on Green. Bride Nailah and Young Merric? That's quite nice.

But maye I skip it, since the October legendary banner looks pretty good, with Chrom, Hel and Edelgard. Maybe Dimitri will appear there... who knows!

I am getting a bit interested in pulling for little Marth however Edelgard, Hel, Chrom (all need merges) and potentially Dimitri also have me excited. 

I just want the September mythic to be Astra Res and a good support unit. I can't keep using Altina and Naga. 

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Just now, SuperNova125 said:

I am getting a bit interested in pulling for little Marth however Edelgard, Hel, Chrom (all need merges) and potentially Dimitri also have me excited. 

I just want the September mythic to be Astra Res and a good support unit. I can't keep using Altina and Naga. 

Yeah. October's banner looks pretty nice. If the Legendary is blue (which I expect to be), the 3rd slot for blue can be also pretty good being Lilith, Anna or maybe Kris. It depends if they get a "Heroes with" until there.

September's banner also looks nice, but I may skip that unless the Mythic is Astra and a good one. I am ok in using Altina, since she is very useful and can bait Thrasir without problems (just need to avoid getting debuffed)... but Naga has her limitations. Most the time, she is just used for Smite.

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We should be getting the legendary hero trailer tomorrow! It wouldn't be Saturday because it'd be Sunday in Japan at that time and the banner itself comes Monday, so it realistically wouldn't be Sunday either.

I keep crossing my fingers for Elincia.

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