Refa Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Haze made like one content post yesterday (which was pretty swank) and didn't really do much else (which makes it hard to read him). Feeling good about him tonewise though. Kaoz is also lacking in the posts! I liked how he pushed Shin (more on this later) and Paperblade (I feel like scum would have just let an idle question go by the wayside instead of repeatedly pressuring Paper on it), but that's about it. Man, SF didn't autosave my portion about Iris but the gist of it is that I'd sheep Paper's case, she didn't make a serious effort to evaluate Elieson's later posts (this is kind of important if you're tunneling him), and while I do like that she's making an effort to get associative reads today (which is in line with what she said about her play on D1), it doesn't seem like she's getting anything out of it? Also the waffle on me makes me uncomfortable, since I'm not sure what her stance on me actually is. I also lost part of my post on Shin! Basically, my issue is that a majority of his content is defending himself (don't believe me, read his ISO yourself). I do agree with Kaoz's case; besides the one large content post where he voted Dormio (which I am honestly not bothered by still despite Dormio's flip), the only other person he cased was Elieson and something about it rubs me the wrong way. *shrugs* Blitz, I think I finally get what your case on Shin is. Correct me if I'm wrong (because I don't think your wording conveyed what you really meant), but it's not that Shin didn't do enough to get out of RVS, but moreso that he seems to be avoiding play that is considered scummy which he wouldn't care about as town. ##Vote: Shin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 @refa: fwiw I've only ISOd Manix and Dormio (the flips) so far, and Dormio flip hasn't enlightened me on anything + I'm sure reads will be concrete after I ISO everyone (after tonight); also to clarify stance on you is null (until I reread your posts) but from situation alone I think it would be unlikely for you to be scum if *both* j00 and elieson turn out to be town (which I don't think is probable rn). also ~via~ what is your stance on j00 in light of flips? has it changed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 If you don't think j00 and Elieson are both town, shoudn't you have a more definite read on me? So confused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 To elaborate, I think I'd make a lot of sense as Elie's scumbuddy FYPOV (even before a reread) considering I waffled on him early on before defending him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 hi I'm on mobile. I should probably read Shin I guess. Really wanna see more from Haze and Kaoz because like I said my lot of townreads makes me paranoid that scum are among lurkers. I'll read the latest Iris content too. The quick Dormio lynch is really bugging me, like I feel like one of the wagons yesterday was scum and the quick switch to a town wagon created a great opportunity for scum /: if one of the wagons is scum though (provided both aren't) I'm thinking Elie is more likely to be scum over j00 now because j00's deadline posts seem better for some reason. Also I don't see scum!Refa jumping to a turbo like that, I think scum might be people who saw the opportunity and took it. I kinda agree Shin seems kinda self-conscious (especially wrt his voite I asked him about ED1 when he said "I'm not voting Elie because I think he's scum!" which I thought was really weird). There was something else I was gonna say but I forgot. I'll be back with a vote in like an hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Lol I got ninjad 3 times I hate mobile. Iris does that explain your question? Like I can go and pick specific examples but I feel better about j00 now after her deadline content. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 answer your question* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 No? I typed out what I thought at the time bc it's a point I'll come back to if I somehow become convinced both are town; I had a null read of you D1 and it's not apt to change until I reread content? I also don't like evaluating people in terms of other ppl that haven't flipped yet? Like I mean I can, but I'm not gonna call someone a possible scum buddy until said person flips as scum. Like I think Elieson is scummy but he's not confirmed yet so I'm not going to read into that until he flips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 yes it does! agree with you that from what i recall j00 content was better than elieson's; and yeah not to talk numbers/inactives (no, I don't know them too), but with probably 3 scum (does this make sense/is 4 too many??), a scum can easily be hiding among less active users but i doubt all inactives would be scum~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Yeah, fair enough. I'm probably just being dumb there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 refa your avatar keeps making me think you're kaoz for some reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Hey, I changed my avatar to a pretty boy with a sword specifically so that you would townread me for it, not so that you'd think I'm Kaoz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shin Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 also i don't like calling out inactives, but i love calling out **active lurkers**; shin i saw you reading the thread a few hours ago when i first posted, pls comment I'd actually ask you to kindly not do that. I was skyping Boron at the time and then I went to bed. I can't really post if I'm busy! Numerically, it's pretty likely that scum were on that wagon. I'd be more cautious of the people who swapped out of nowhere. Unless j00 was willing to pull a massive gambit as scum, I can't really see her offer to self vote as something scum would be willing to risk. Whilst Eli did the same, I'm less confident about the timings. It was entirely possible at that point it'd result in a no lynch after his vote. Whilst it's still fairly ballsy, I don't get the same vibes as I do from j00. Kaoz has been pretty absent, I feel like he's not particularly paying attention to much of the game, considering he voteparked on me for nearly the entire phase. Blitz is guilty of the same, he vanished for an entire day before phase end and essentially parked his vote on me. I'm not actually sure who else he's even reading. I can see Refa's case on me, and I can sorta grasp its logic, I think he's overplaying the defense, it was essentially for ED1 and I can't really say much about a case that rubs you the wrong way. Whilst Refa was strongly on the Dormio wagon, there's odd tidbits he said that make me feel that it was out of benefit for town - I can't see how offering a NL would benefit scum at all. Haze actually cased Dormio earlier on in the phase, so his switch doesn't bother me too much. I'm a little less certain on Paper, whilst he does express dislike of both wagons, it almost feels like he'd have been fine with anyone else. However, looking back at previous games, this feels loads like town!Paper, so I'm starting to question myself with regards to him. I'm not picking up anything from Snike right now, so I guess he's kinda null. I'm not entirely sure how many scum could have been on the wagon, considering how close it was. That's more musing than actual analysis, but it's something that I was pondering about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shin Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Iris' opening vote today on Eli is pretty poor, it makes a lot of assumptions about the Eli/Manix dynamics and I don't quite feel the strength behind it. Like, I can understand that Eli didn't address the points Manix made, but I don't see how Manix flipping town (which I think we all expected tbh) makes Eli look any worse than he did before. ##Vote: Blitz He's massively dropped off the radar, he made a fairly decent push against me early on and answered a few odd questions but he didn't do much other than ask people what they thought of things and townread Dormio towards the end - and then he was absent for a whole day. (Pls prod mods) It just feels like he made a couple of appearances and then let the game run itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haze Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I am playing dark souls 2 so I kinda got distracted. @Reasoning: It's hard to explain, but I am really skeptical that we just managed to stumble upon 3 vanillas consecutively on d1. Like seriously if we go by hypo numbers (NO I DON'T KNOW NUMBERS) and assume there's 9 members of town and we have 3-4 power roles, that's 50-60% of all vanillagers and it seems sort of unlikely that we found them that fast. I have another reason for that which I don't feel like disclosing but it should be pretty clear if someone scrutinizes my iso. Alright, I skimmed like crazy but I saw two vanilla claims. Not entirely willing to believe both of them but that's a subject for another time. I'm blue. ##Vote: j00 Actual content in a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paperblade Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Not a huge fan of Shin's vote, feels easy I don't think Iris actually replied to me which I don't like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 also would it be too much to ask for an extension? lots of people here (I think, are celebrating the 4th, me included), so activity today probably won't be very good. if not, totally understandable @paperblade: hi! pretty sure I mostly addressed your points somewhen a past post but it was directed in general? not sure what you actually wanted me to reply to bc from what I recalled you said you said something like "Iris is scummy bc she flipped to Dormio very easily even though she was tunneling Elieson / didn't really understand Dormio case" & pretty sure I addressed that somewhere.\ I agree with you that Shin's vote on Blitz is 'easy', but more like 'lazy' in a really bad way. like Blitz honestly has been inactive as Kaoz and Haze (Haze has been trying though!), and I read his reasoning to be something like "blitz was doing good at first but stopped posting that's scummy" but more like he could just have been inactive?? i also haven't read your other post yet so will comment on that later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 (edited) Votals 2.1 Elieson (1) - Iris Iris (1) - Paperblade Shin (1) - Refa Blitz (1) - Shin j00 (1) - Haze Not Voting (6): Blitz, Elieson, j00, Kaoz, Snike, Via, You have 51 hours and 40 minutes left in the phase. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Edited July 4, 2015 by SB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prims Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 yeah I'm OK giving you guys a 24 hour extension for D2 - although some people aren't American they seem to be busy too for various reasons so it's probably fair. D2 has been extended for 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 To preface this post, I won't be around tomorrow. So, let's see. I don't think either vanilla claim is meaningful since it says in the OP that there's a "non-zero number" of vanillas in this game and vanilla is a fair fake claim for a power role too, especially D1 (it gets riskier later on). I don't think the self-vote/offer is inherently meaningful either, it's basically AtE. I'll give Elieson some credit for actually voting himself when it was just before deadline though and because he apparently didn't know what was going on. Does anyone think Elieson lied about coming back so late though? Regarding votals, Haze and Elieson both came in too late for their votes to be meaningful in determining the lynch target and j00 was voting there because of not-me-over-me from what I can tell, so I don't feel like their votes are very telling. Beyond that though, who was even scum reading Dormio? Refa, Snike and Shin I think? Overall it read to me like people switched because not enough people could agree on one of j00/Elieson and then everyone got cold feet after the vanilla claim. As such, the most you can read out of these, in my eyes, is whether Refa/Snike/Shin cases on Dormio were reasonable or not (I don't have time for this though, so I'll be relying on you guys). I get a good vibe from j00's #233, but because of the first line and not the second. Snike was content with an Elieson lynch at that point and there were enough people for it, so I think scum!j00 could've just rolled with that instead of encouraging him to keep trying for one of her/Dormio. This is also different from offering to self-vote since self-voting is more of a calculated action whereas this line seemed very spur of the moment to me. In conclusion, both Elieson and j00 had townie actions towards phase end, although I think either of them would've been a better lynch than Dormio regardless on the sole basis that it wouldn't have been a turbo. Iris, what's your stance on Snike's guess for the Manix kill? You said that it was good of him to pick up on it, but does that change your opinion on Elieson in any way? Furthermore, if you're sticking to your own logic, why doesn't that factor into your Refa read considering Manix was going after him as well? Also, in your #284, I don't understand what you're trying to say in the line before the vote, could you explain it to me, please? Shin, I can't tell if you're voting Blitz for inactivity or for what he did or didn't do while he was active. If it's the latter, do you feel Haze and my posts were better than his in terms of quality or are you scum reading either of us? Iris, if you're specifying that Haze has been trying, does that mean Blitz and I haven't in your opinion? If so, explain why and if it means anything to you. There's a lot of stuff I haven't covered, but I'm out of time, sorry. I'm gonna stick to my Shin vote from yesterday since his posts since then haven't really changed my opinion on him. I'd also be down with lynching Iris from what I've seen so far. ##Vote: Shin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j00 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Hi guys, happy America day and stuff, reading now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shin Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I agree with you that Shin's vote on Blitz is 'easy', but more like 'lazy' in a really bad way. like Blitz honestly has been inactive as Kaoz and Haze (Haze has been trying though!), and I read his reasoning to be something like "blitz was doing good at first but stopped posting that's scummy" but more like he could just have been inactive?? i also haven't read your other post yet so will comment on that later You separate Haze already from your own post. Blitz sticks out from both Haze and Kaoz. I'd strongly recommend reading my first post first, hence why it was posted first, you kinda miss a lot of my reasoning if you ignore it. I also mentioned that Kaoz bothers me. If you look, his initial vote on me was gut, and he's conveniently held onto that gut vote. His D2 vote is essentially "I don't feel any different" but I don't actually see any reason why he's voting me beyond gut. Kaoz's posts whilst lacking in number at least deal with other players in the game, Blitz has a really narrow focus. Whilst you could argue that he's been inactive, it doesn't change his earlier posts. The last two don't particularly deal really deal with much at all. I think this puts him above Kaoz. Blitz > Kaoz >>> Eli currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shin Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I'm off to bed, and I'm working tomorrow so I'm unlikely to be posting for 12+ hours. I'll attend to anything after that! Also your holiday means nothing to SHIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j00 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I get a slightly better feeling from Snike's posts today, I disagree with his role-spec regarding vanillas and me and Elie being 1-1 since it's a lot of wifom, but he' noticed the post about Manix and claimed to have his role interferred with, which feels townie. I still have some issues about his D1 though, he's still saying I'm suspicious but he barely did anything to seriously push my lynch when it actually mattered to get a lynch, and switched to Dormio at some point. I know he was your second scumread, but why did you suddenly start to push him harder than primary scumread which was an entirely viable wagon? Also, you still bring up me "quote mining" you. What does that even mean? And if you still have that issue with me today, why didn't you ask others for opinions regarding that when we needed a lynch? This sorta bothers me about Iris too, who wanted Elie lynched and still does today, yet didn't do much to push his lynch or convince others of it. Regarding her questions, confirmation bias since I know I'm town, but me and Elie being scumbuddies doesn't make sense because 1) we could've easily pushed the Dormio lynch instead of the unpredictable turbo-switch that happened 2) It looked like it was either Elie or me for a long time, from which we'd gain more towncred from bussing each other than saying the other were probably town and self-voting if needed. 3) Two vanilla claims leads to scrutiny (like from Snike), especially when there's yet another vanilla flip. I.e. if we both were scum, what the hell were we thinking? What is your logic for us possibly being scumbuddies, that is, what would we gain from our actions? I don't think Elie is scum due to his late D1 content and tone, but I don't think Manix's flip affects Elie a lot. If anything, the flip makes him look more suspicious since he got flak for his Manix vote yesterday, and with Manix confirmed town, it'd make him look worse by association. If he was scum and just dogded a lynch I don't really think it'd be worth it to immediately give bad associations to yourself, but this is all too much wifom for me to make Elie look either better or worse. Via, who on the Dormio wagon bothers you the most? I feel Refa's posts has been good today, he makes a good point about Shin doing little but defending himself. I also agree with him wrt Iris. Shin's Blitz vote is really weird, because he barely mentioned him earlier and votes him only at this point, with the reason that Blitz hasn't done anything since. He even says it's likely that there were scum on the Dormio wagon and to be cautious about the people swapping wagons out of nowhere, but has got pretty general comments on those players bar Iris, which he honestly has made a more compelling argument to vote for than Blitz. Voting an inactive despite that just feels lazy and not very genuine. I could've understood his points against Blitz last phase, but not suspecting him for those posts before and voting him just now almost feels like an OMGUS. He was also very passive during the turbolynching and basically said someone else had to come and decide the lynch. ##Vote: Shin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j00 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Also I don't disagree with Paper but he's also lazy, what are even your cases? Thoughts on anyone else on the Dormio wagon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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