Etrian Odyssey 2 Mafia - Game Over

[Shin]

##Unvote

##Vote: eclipse

Perhaps my perception of eclipse's meta isn't accurate, but judging from the fact that she's an SF mod, I would reason that she's more inherently much more likely than Kopfjager to post. That, and her "I won't post until the rest of you contribute" disclaimer seems like a convenient excuse for scum to lurk.

I'd like to maximize the chance that one of my scumreads is lynched D1, and I feel that this would be much more likely to happen wrt eclipse rather than Shin. Still not abandoning my Shin case, though, as much as he repeats that it's insubstantial.

I think eclipse looks pretty bad, but I really don't think you can use the fact she's a mod as a point in any sort of valid argument, other than arguing that she's a mod!

[spoiler=Massive deconstruction of Green! Wear a helmet!]

Shin's potential defense of Flan interests me more, and since it's a stronger case than my completely random RVS vote, I'll switch.

##Unvote

##Vote: Shin

Weak early vote with no basis. Nothing to see here!

I'll concede that my reads were pretty insubstantial. I decided to switch my vote to Shin because:

-I had something more solid than my baseless vote in RVS, and

-as Refa pointed out, his voteswitch looked like the beginnings of a chainsaw defense. My opinion of Flan was admittedly shaky, but it's a possibility.

Anyway, that's all from me today. Hopefully I haven't misused terms too much.

You admit that you have no reads and the basis is that I'm starting a chainsaw defense. Turned out I wasn't, but the show goes on!

As for Shin - yes, he seemed scummy to me. He deliberately voteswitched to Refa knowing that Refa had called him out with the first openly serious post, and, recognizing this, it doesn't make much sense to me to call this a product of his own "silliness." It makes sense for town to drop the jokes once someone starts accusing you for real.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Shin's most recent post. I don't believe he was trying to start a wagon on Refa, but his RD vote seems unwarranted to me. RD's reasoning was more or less the same as mine. I'll keep my vote on Shin.

Shin is scummy for a vote during RVS. I've justified my RD vote enough times, but apparently it only counts as justification when I give an answer you want to hear! Dem ears!

The only suggested reason as to why it'd be reasonable for a townie to voteswitch during RVS is to gauge reactions. My assumption that townies should discontinue doing this and come clean once they're under suspicion may not constitute a good case by itself, but the fact that Shin decided to reply by spontaneously saying "I'll show you reactionary!" means that he not only deliberately defied this generalization, but decided to try and throw off Refa's observations.

Now, why would you avoid seriously defending yourself in such a position, and not give Refa a good reason to stop suspecting you? Just to get in some more shenanigans? At that point, the "what townies should do" speculation isn't truly speculation anymore.

Still hooked on a vote during RVS, and then telling me how I should play.

For those who have a particular disdain to helmets, Green's entire case is based around one vote, perhaps two if he feels like talking about the RD one. Rather than analyse the content of my posts, he's pretty hung up on my silliness being the sign of the devil. At least Refa attempts to provide some justification, rather than just disregarding everything and focusing on a single point. Green's other leads are incredibly half-hearted, and has jumped ship to someone who hasn't replied in ages over someone who's spewing out scum. The "vote for someone else but keep an eye on Shin" line seems like a nice way to take a step back without admitting that your case wasn't good.

[BBM]

I want to see (a lot) more effort from Wen, but I honestly think that his first post was null. A lot of the older players who were more used to OC have similar sort of viewpoints about in-thread posts (read Proto's posts where he talks about in-thread posts as being subjective fluff and role claims and results as the only objective way to find scum).

Shin, how does the fact that Green Poet unvoted you change your case?

[Da Bear]

Lets do this

Green Poet

-Votes shin because his "defense" of poly was interesting. I don't see how shin defended poly.

-was constantly reminding everyone that this is her first game ("considering my lack of meta to begin with," "I'm unfamiliar with everyone here," etc.). Also says that she's not very good ("apologies to all in advance for my newbishness," "hopefully I haven't misused terms too much,"). When she answers Xinnidy's case on her, her main point seems to be, "I don't know anything."

-Suddenly stops doing that and has a major tone change in the post after she answers xinnidy. What provoked a change in tone like that?

-is basically scumhunting by sheeping and not adding much to discuss herself. She does give reasons for her shin vote but they seem like a rehash of what Refa said.

-that meta (if it can even be callled that) on eclipse makes no sense at all. Why would eclipse's status of a mod make her more likely to post?

-spends a lot of time complaining about Eclipse not wanting to post until there are more posts out there (I'm pretty sure this is normal for eclipse) instead of focusing on finding scum intent in eclipse's posts. She does come up with potential scum intent in her last post but I'm not seeing the reasoning (it's basically what she said earlier with the word scum attached)

##Vote: Green Poet

Seems more focused on self preservation then scumhunting. Scumhunting amounts to sheeping, being weird about eclipse. and nitpicking shin. Plus that weird tone change thing that's just giving me bad vibes.

I'll get more later tonight (I hope) but homework+a basketball game will stall my efforts. Until next time

[Grace]

Votals The Third

eclipse (3): SB, kirsche, Green Poet

Refa (2): Shin, BBM

SB (2): Elieson, Radiant Dragon

Radiant Dragon (2): FleurDeGlace, Kopfjager

Green Poet (2): Xinnidy, bearclaw

Shin (1): Refa

FleurDeGlace (1): eclipse

Xinnidy (1): scorri

BBM (1): Flan

Not Voting (1): Shinori

There are 25 hours and 37 minutes left in the phase. With 16 alive, it takes 9 to hammer, and 5 to lynch at deadline.

Also a reminder: When voting, please use ## before your equivalent vote word, otherwise I may miss it.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Curly Brace

[Shin]

I want to see (a lot) more effort from Wen, but I honestly think that his first post was null. A lot of the older players who were more used to OC have similar sort of viewpoints about in-thread posts (read Proto's posts where he talks about in-thread posts as being subjective fluff and role claims and results as the only objective way to find scum).

Shin, how does the fact that Green Poet unvoted you change your case?

It feels like a hasty retraction in all honesty. He's spent a lot of time harping on me to go after someone who whilst has questionable content, hasn't really done a terrible amount. I have a feeling he's changed his mind to save face, whilst keeping me on the side should the situation arise again.

[Green Poet]

Lets do this

Green Poet

-Votes shin because his "defense" of poly was interesting. I don't see how shin defended poly.

-was constantly reminding everyone that this is her first game ("considering my lack of meta to begin with," "I'm unfamiliar with everyone here," etc.). Also says that she's not very good ("apologies to all in advance for my newbishness," "hopefully I haven't misused terms too much,"). When she answers Xinnidy's case on her, her main point seems to be, "I don't know anything."

-Suddenly stops doing that and has a major tone change in the post after she answers xinnidy. What provoked a change in tone like that?

-is basically scumhunting by sheeping and not adding much to discuss herself. She does give reasons for her shin vote but they seem like a rehash of what Refa said.

-that meta (if it can even be callled that) on eclipse makes no sense at all. Why would eclipse's status of a mod make her more likely to post?

-spends a lot of time complaining about Eclipse not wanting to post until there are more posts out there (I'm pretty sure this is normal for eclipse) instead of focusing on finding scum intent in eclipse's posts. She does come up with potential scum intent in her last post but I'm not seeing the reasoning (it's basically what she said earlier with the word scum attached)

##Vote: Green Poet

Seems more focused on self preservation then scumhunting. Scumhunting amounts to sheeping, being weird about eclipse. and nitpicking shin. Plus that weird tone change thing that's just giving me bad vibes.

I'll get more later tonight (I hope) but homework+a basketball game will stall my efforts. Until next time

-As Shin pointed out himself, that was a weak indication of Shin's motives, and not the focus of my suspicions on him. To clarify, I'm not saying it was explicitly a defense, but assuming Flan is scum, then it gives him a reason to. Again, I'm not stating that Flan is scum.

It's merely reasonable to question someone's voteswitch when it seems that nothing can be gained by it, which is the primary reason for my suspicion in that case, not his potential act of defense. Shin claims that that was just a product of his joking nature, which I cannot contest, and have therefore stopped mentioning.

-Xinnidy specifically chose to question me about acting inexperienced and hesitant, which is why I naturally explained in kind. It wouldn't have made sense for me to reply in any other way, hence you see my reply as essentially "I don't know anything." This is true, and I do not know anything, as it's D1 and we have no solid information just yet. I'm nitpicking at slightly suspicious points in people's posts because there's nothing else to go on at this point in the game.

-What do you mean by a change in my tone? Are you saying that I stopped "acting" inexperienced and hesitant? If so, your suspicion towards me is implicitly based on the argument that I'm simply pretending to be new at mafia, so that I can hide more efficiently as scum.

Yet there are two obvious signs that indicate the exact opposite - first, Xinnidy's post itself advises me to become more confident, so it'd only be natural for me to try doing so. And second, you're able to provide multiple examples of phrases in which I seemed inexperienced, and yet don't quote me on a single time that I acted the opposite, despite this being such a purportedly drastic change in tone and something that should be able to be pinpointed easily.

-Is there something wrong/scummy with sheeping? Since it's indicative of my general inability to gather scumreads, and thus my inexperience, aren't you contradicting yourself by bringing my level of experience into question?

Additionally, there's nothing markedly wrong with sheeping this early into the game. You may think it's suspicious/scummy that I'm not contributing anything, but there are other posters, such as scorri, Kopfjager, and Flan that have said extremely little as well. If passivity unsettles you, why aren't you more suspicious of someone who's posted fewer times than me?

-My mistake for misinterpreting eclipse's activity. I had disclaimed that I might be incorrect about this, and again, this is clearly something that indicates my inexperience. Still, the bulk of my suspicion wrt eclipse is in her exclusively meta-based dismissal of Fleur, whom I'm inclined to believe is town, and "I won't contribute until the rest of you do" statement. Her being a mod is tangential to my main focus.

-Do you think there's anything scummy about eclipse's posts? They're few in number, brief, and not exactly recent, so it's naturally difficult to pick out anything scummy from them.

I may have addressed some of Shin's points already in this, and may reply to him with something more comprehensive in a bit. For now, my main response to Shin is that I don't think he's as positively scummy as he seems to believe. I don't think your silliness is "a sign of the devil," just something that I don't quite understand and therefore have a hard time believing. As you can see, I've switched my vote from you to eclipse. You are not my primary suspicion anymore, and even when you were, "primary" and "highly convinced" did not mean the same.

[Shin]

I may have addressed some of Shin's points already in this, and may reply to him with something more comprehensive in a bit. For now, my main response to Shin is that I don't think he's as positively scummy as he seems to believe. I don't think your silliness is "a sign of the devil," just something that I don't quite understand and therefore have a hard time believing. As you can see, I've switched my vote from you to eclipse. You are not my primary suspicion anymore, and even when you were, "primary" and "highly convinced" did not mean the same.

Someone needs to learn to SHIN!

[Green Poet]

Edited so that I'm able respond to each point.

-I think eclipse looks pretty bad, but I really don't think you can use the fact she's a mod as a point in any sort of valid argument, other than arguing that she's a mod!

-Weak early vote with no basis. Nothing to see here!

-You admit that you have no reads and the basis is that I'm starting a chainsaw defense. Turned out I wasn't, but the show goes on!

-Shin is scummy for a vote during RVS. I've justified my RD vote enough times, but apparently it only counts as justification when I give an answer you want to hear! Dem ears!

-Still hooked on a vote during RVS, and then telling me how I should play.

-Green's other leads are incredibly half-hearted, and has jumped ship to someone who hasn't replied in ages over someone who's spewing out scum.

-The "vote for someone else but keep an eye on Shin" line seems like a nice way to take a step back without admitting that your case wasn't good.

-Addressed in my last post.

-It doesn't turn out you didn't until Flan flips town. Flan currently has no votes.

-What have I implied that I want to hear from you?

-I apologize if it seems as though I'm trying to instruct you, and apologize to bearclaw as well for repeating myself again in saying that I'm inexperienced. I am the least qualified player here to be instructing you how to play. What you had quoted there was me asking why you acted a certain way; I hadn't explicitly told you to do anything.

-Eclipse's not having replied is contextualized by her post that essentially says "I won't reply until you all have something I can work with," something that I've pointed out enough times. As for you, I've never stated that you're spewing out scum, merely that your mannerisms seem scummier to me than others'.

-If you're looking for a written confession, see my last post. My suspicion toward you derives mainly from your incongruous wording and actions. I'm not saying it's an overbearingly strong or backed-up suspicion. It isn't based in some sort of deduction that definitively points to you as scum.

Someone needs to learn to SHIN!

Agreed.

[Green Poet]

Hopefully that clears up the misunderstanding between myself and Shin/bearclaw. I've probably tossed out too much text in this last hour, so I'll shut up for a bit.

@ those with concerns about my relative lack of original cases - I'll try to come up with more stuff during D2 when there's more to work with, provided I'm alive.

[scorri]

Right, ok, I'm actually around right now. As I said at the start I could promise anything for the first 24 hours and then these last few hours have been real bad as well, sorry.

Things that stand out:

Boron subbing out likely has nothing to do with her alignment and everything to do with how upset she was getting. She's gotten upset at things in past games and I know she doesn't like how that makes her act so.

Green: If I had to guess, the point was likely more that you have been posting a decent amount but that the content wasn't really there. Someone like me who hasn't posted at all stands out for that, but someone who's been posting a decent amount skates by easier. If, when analyzed, your posts don't actually have that much content-wise, it looks like you're not actually contributing that much while trying to look like you are.

Everything else is really ugh, I'm lost mostly. There's been a lot and I've just... yeah.

[Refa]

Sorry for the lack of activity today. I've been kind of depressed and have 2 long term assignments to work on. I'll try to crank out a post later on.

Also requesting a touch more civility in general. I don't want to have to modkill/forcesub players for bad conduct.

OK, I realize that I can be kind of a jerk (OK...really a jerk) when playing Mafia, but I try not to like, offend people personally (make the game for fun for everyone etc. etc.). So if at any time I'm upsetting you for reasons that are outside of the actual game itself, I don't really mind if you call me out on it here so I stop doing it. kthnx.

[Shinori]

Lack of activity and all that jazz but I'm working on some sort of a post at the moment.

[Shinori]

I'm not really sure what to think about Eclipse at the moment but I don't feel too inclined to lynch her. Probably wouldn't want to vote.

Personal preference on the SB vs refa thing I stated previously. I think I would prefer a SB lynch > a Refa lynch. I honestly don't like his Eclipse park. Looking through SB's posts he only ever says two thing about Eclipse. In the post where he votes her and then in one response towards her. After that - nothing. Not to mention the basically pointless argument between him and refa and the fact that the majority of his posts seem like they honestly don't have much content I feel this should be a priority target at the moment.

Currently feel Refa is town - but this is partially based on the fact that SB vs refa and I think sb is scum and refa is reacting how I think he would if he was town.

I personally didn't like Bearclaw's one post but it honestly isn't much to really go on or talk about so here's to hoping he posts more later.

Honestly gut is telling me BBM is scum but dunno there I'm too lazy to worry about going into a case on him as I feel like SB is a bigger target.

Lynch priority at the moment would be something like:

SB > BBM > Bear > Eclipse > other people.

##Vote: SB

BACK TO LIGHTNING RETURNS!

[FleurDeGlace]

@Green Poet: Why do you think your vote should be on eclipse at the moment? You pointed out that Shin was definitively scum, so why do you think that your vote is better on eclipse than on Shin this phase?

@Shin: How does that exchange and what Green Poet did recently affect your opinions of him and Refa. Do you think that makes her more scummy than Refa? Or does Refa remain more scummy?

I can't really get much out of the exchange between Green Poet and Shin. It is more of a null read on both of them now.

[FleurDeGlace]

Honestly, eclipse has posted so little today that I do not want to see an eclipse lynch even if she is more likely a scum. Gives less interaction goodies to analyse and inactives are generally better for a vigilante shot, in my opinion.

If there is a vigilante, I would like these players shot in this order: Elieson > scorri > eclipse > Flan > Kopfjager > Shinori.

[Shinori]

AAAAAAASUUUUUUUUUUNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA~~~~

KAWAII~

[FleurDeGlace]

Forgot about Xinnidy.....

If there is a vigilante, I would like these players shot in this order: Elieson > scorri > eclipse > Flan > Kopfjager > Xinnidy > Shinori.

[Da Bear]

will respond to Green before bed and maybe even give more reads!

I personally didn't like Bearclaw's one post but it honestly isn't much to really go on or talk about so here's to hoping he posts more later.

If you could explain why it would be nice.

[FleurDeGlace]

@bearclaw: What do you think of the points raised against Refa by Sangyul and BigBadMeteor. Sangyul was the player you were subbing so I am hoping you could address what you thought about her points as well. That would make it easier for me to read you.

[Da Bear]

@bearclaw: What do you think of the points raised against Refa by Sangyul and BigBadMeteor. Sangyul was the player you were subbing so I am hoping you could address what you thought about her points as well. That would make it easier for me to read you.

I can do that! Answering Green has priority though.

Also can you tell me why you're giving a vig list? Seems kind of pointless to me.

[FleurDeGlace]

It's an opinion on the inactive players and a list of names for a potential vigilante to consider killing.

Also, I don't want any of those players lynched yet due to the lack of interactions and information to analyse. It would be a waste of town discussion time and lynch to lynch players who have said almost nothing at all.

[Green Poet]

Seems I'll be posting some more tonight, then.

@Green Poet: Why do you think your vote should be on eclipse at the moment? You pointed out that Shin was definitively scum, so why do you think that your vote is better on eclipse than on Shin this phase?

Quite the opposite, in fact. I presently do not think that Shin is necessarily scum, else my vote would still be on him.

Right now, my vote is on eclipse for two reasons besides my suspicion on her:

-You have arguably the most content-filled posts so far. If eclipse flips scum, I and the rest of town have a huge amount of then-proven reliable information to work with starting D2. (If eclipse is scum and had been trying to bus you, I assume she'd have been more diligent about it.)

-eclipse was closer to being lynched than Shin at the time of my switch, and between her and Refa, I have more of a reason to be wary of her.

will respond to Green before bed and maybe even give more reads!

Sounds good. I'll be up for a bit longer and see if I can reply in kind, if that ends up being necessary.

[Radiant Dragon]

Radiant Dragon, I want to question you on why you referred to the bandwagon on you in third party.

I noticed this and when I ISOed the rest of your posts, you referred to any votes on you as "votes on me" or "voting me" or words to that extent. That makes the reference here weird to me and compels me to wonder if this was not typed or thought out by yourself.

Somewhat recently, I picked up the habit of occasionally speaking about myself in the third person, although it usually doesn't slip into my posts. I really don't see how this is relevant at all, however. All I'm getting from this is that you think I am incapable of defending myself without help from my scumbuddies, which is somewhat insulting if I'm being perfectly honest.

Honestly, eclipse has posted so little today that I do not want to see an eclipse lynch even if she is more likely a scum. Gives less interaction goodies to analyse and inactives are generally better for a vigilante shot, in my opinion.

If there is a vigilante, I would like these players shot in this order: Elieson > scorri > eclipse > Flan > Kopfjager > Shinori.

Hold the phone there a second, girl!

Vig should not be shooting someone on Night 1 (an argument can be made for it if he's an unlimited-shot Vig and somehow has a very good case on somebody). Especially when Elieson, Scorri and Shinori have RL issues and Flan's been suspended (he's been temporarily replaced but I don't think Bluedoom has posted yet).

What makes you think you have any say over who the Vig shoots at this juncture anyway?

In other news, I am currently doing the reread I promised yesterday. I apologize for being later than I anticipated (RL > forum Mafia game), but expect a post in about 45 minutes or so.

[Radiant Dragon]

I do however agree with Fleur that we should be lynching a suspicious active townie today. A lynch on someone not very active won't give us as much information about their interactions with other users.

[Green Poet]

Regarding your vigilante priority list, Fleur...

If we're putting this up to some kind of vote, I'd rather that vig not kill today. The chances of hitting town among your seven-person list is much likely higher than hitting scum, and at this point that factor of randomness is much more dangerous to town than the potential of them simply being lurking scum.

May I ask why you think it's more beneficial to ask vig to kill someone inactive, and more probable than not to be town, than to kill someone you personally think is scum?

On a much more precarious note - discounting WIFOM, I think the fact that Fleur has asked for an essentially random/inactive kill disqualifies Fleur as a vig read, since a neutrally-inclined vig that doesn't share Fleur's reads would be more likely to do as asked. Not that this means much at this stage, really.