SullyMcGully
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Posts posted by SullyMcGully
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The reason what town says matters is because if town wasn't already townreading Eclipse, I would see fit to make that point myself. Since it was kind of obvious, there was no such need because nobody was coming out and saying they thought the Eclipse slot was more scummy after what had happened that night. And while I didn't have a strong townread on Eclipse leading up to the D2 lynch, after Shinori flipped my reasoning was:
1) Tomorrow everyone will know Eclipse is town
2) The scum knows that everyone knows that
3) The scum might target Eclipse with the NK tonight
4) Eclipse is the only confirmed player who can't mess with my ability
5) I should watch Eclipse and see if she gets NKd.
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2 minutes ago, Makaze said:
@SullyMcGully There is one question in your scenario that needs answering and that is, who would be your deep wolf if Arc is Mafia and you are town? How can you be sure that the town will correctly find this wolf if you can't even do it, are the only one who suspects it, and are lynching yourself instead of casing other people?
How is town helped if we don't find the other Mafia before you die?
You wouldn't have to find them before I die. You would find them after I was dead. My death, including those who cased me and their reasons for doing so, would produce material for reads. Particularly, it would get you scumread like crazy.
I believe my actions so far have drawn enough attention to the potential ramifications of a townread like Makaze being in-deep in this situation. You can still lynch me and I believe it will still produce favorable long-term results, but I believe my point has been made.
##Vote: Arcanite
It will happen sooner or later. I don't mean to stand in the way of it, but with the amount of mud that has been thrown in the water around this one, there is no way we're getting any good reads out of this one if it flips scum.
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I'm using screenshots because you can't quote quotes. Makaze, you should read an ISO of me instead of just when and where I voted. Weapons had just claimed to be a tracker who saw Kirsche visit that night's NK target, Eurykins. It was a troll that just felt weird to me, but I thought it could just be his personality, which is why I agreed with Mack there.
People give me a lot of flak for pressuring Bibbon, but the fact is that his reads weren't the best and there was absolutely no reason for him to claim jailer when he did. I thought there could be a scum reason for them to do that, but ultimately the weirdness was just foolishness that was NAI.
And I like explained my Refa/Via read right there. They were subpar compared to my previous experience with them in P5, but I hadn't read Via's caffeinated night which pretty much made him obvtown. Also, in P5 they were networked together, but I had forgotten about that. I'm still lightly suspicious of Refa in this game.
Why is that bit about subs scummy? It's true! Zeus, Bibbon, Weapons, Nightmare, Junko, etc. were all scummy in some way or another before they subbed out. Probability states that of the people who are scummy, one of them is probably scum.
I like how the part where I say I'm going to vote Bibbon is in blue, but the part where I actually do is in red.
It had just come to light that Mack hadn't been using the quicktopic with Fable. I thought Kirsche's Shinori case was pretty bad. I still do.
As I said earlier in D3, my Kirsche case was inconclusive and I never thought it would be sheeped the way it was.
I thought it was generally agreed that Eclipse was town after the Shinori flip. As for my other logic, I'm not quite sure if I ever got around to that, haha. Not something I would build a case out of.
OK, so I still don't see your problem, @Makaze. Is it because I'm not good at this? That's been a given since the beginning. I originally was in line to be an actual player in this game (not a sub) but I backed out because I didn't want a skilled player losing their spot because I got in. I only joined later to help Iris because she needed subs. I generally sheep larger players in a game, trying to come up with my own unique reads from time to time, but they generally aren't any good. That may sound scummy, but it's how I play. If you think I would only play this way as scum, read P5.
If my play is scummy, then lynch me over that. But I don't see how there isn't a world where I could be town. Where was the smoking gun for you, Makaze?
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I mean, yeah. My role sucks. That's not new info. But how is it scummy?
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@RefaYou forgot Athena. Everybody who went online between when the case was made and now (except for Arc) agreed with Makaze's case.
Maybe I'm not thinking right, but if the ultimate plan is for the Arcanite lynch to set me up for a mislynch the next day, then my fate seems sealed as is. Mafia does have an advantage to gain if they can look good from lynching Arc and then they can safely mislynch me, coasting on their newly acquired towncred.
Also, I assume my action would work on an individual as long as they didn't use their night action the night I watch them. If they idle, it should be fine.
I'll go find Makaze's ink post and respond to that.
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2 minutes ago, Refa said:
Pretty sure I sheeped Makaze's read when I initially read it, or I forgot to say that.
If Arc flips scum, then surely scum would want to go after you? I don't get where this is coming from. Are you townreading Arcanite? If so, why?
Let's assume that you're town. Do you genuinely think a Town!You flip will make people not willing to lynch Arcanite?
I'm not trying to protect Arcanite. I think they're probably scum. But I think that the mafia is equipped to use their death to their advantage. They're bussing him. Arc's post where he seems to imply that I'm his buddy suggests as much. Somebody is going to come out of this looking better than they should. If I die, then people can still lynch Arcanite tomorrow. But my death will make things happen for the Mafia faster than they want them to.
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I'm not trying to save myself. As I understand it, the town wincon is eliminating the scum. It doesn't matter if you survive to the end as long as town beats scum. If I can draw out scum with whatever time I have left, then my existence is worth it.
Whoever is calling the shots here has two lynches lined up, Arc's today and I'm probably getting hammered tomorrow. This is an ideal set up for scum, regardless of whether Arc flips scum or not. Surely I'm not the only one who sees this. If people refuse to give me real answers, there's nothing to say they aren't the very scum I'm after, hiding in order to preserve their grand design from my interference.
NOBODY SHOULD HAVE A PROBLEM WITH LYNCHING ME! Lynching us out of order won't change anything UNLESS scum wants things the way they are. I'd rather you all find out I'm town tonight and not tomorrow night. But of course, if somebody is planning all of this, they would not be happy with that outcome, would they?
I'm being serious. I'm not doing this for towncred, I'm doing this to make my death mean something. If you think I'm scum, lynch me. Or if you don't! I don't care what you think of me, my death will do more for town than anything else at this point.
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Arc isn't on any team I'm a member of. Plus, Arc doesn't want to die and I do. Lynch me instead.
It's better for town if you see my flip than if you see Arc's. Therefore, a Sully lynch is better than an Arc lynch.
Makaze, you have pretty much written off 2 players as not worthy of your further attention. I want to know what of my play is scummy. This goes for everyone else too! I want people to have something to go off of. Among the people who think I'm scummy there are most certainly scum. If you have a reason to suspect me, state it!
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If I'm scum, Makaze, then LYNCH ME INSTEAD OF ARC.
If you don't want to do that, then explain why.
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And Makaze has already completely ignored my request that he present to me a specific problem with my gameplay. Are you really that cocky?
I want to defend myself, but you don't want to offer me the opportunity. Do you realize that there's no way town benefits from that? If I'm scum, the worst I can do is incriminate other scum. But I'm not, I want to engage with players so there's something people can build reads with once I'm gone. Do you really want to throw away that opportunity?
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11 minutes ago, Refa said:
Just woke up. Please don't selfvote.
Out of curiosity, what's the meta on self-voting?
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Please Omega, it's a long enough post as is, you didn't have to quote the whole thing again.
OK, it's hitting me that Makaze's only "guaranteed scumread" isn't scum. I could see Makaze as being the tryhard scum on a team of demotivated players, willing to bus his buddies but preferring to bus innocents (like me) when he can. He doesn't have the best history with confirmed scum (we all remember Zeus) and after bouncing off of every wagon that provided a decent defense (or an associative defense, like how Kill got him off of LG) he's settled on someone who isn't scum as definitely being scum. I swear, if he bounces off of my wagon he would pretty much be broke as far as opinions go. Yes, his confidence almost proves he isn't scum, but he could be betting on that. I doubt he'd be afraid to make the point I made in my first paragraph of the long post up there in his defense.
Remember what I said about Arc potentially being set-up for his lynch to be used to scum advantage? Well looking at his play so far, Makaze could very well be doing that. It's worth noting that despite the fact that he thinks I'm obvscum, he hasn't even put a vote on me. I just realized that despite everyone seeming to buy Makaze's logic on me, the only one voting for me right now is... me! Which would make sense. Makaze wants to lynch Arc, potentially bussing his teammate, and then look better after the flip. If you lynch me, he looks terrible after pushing for a mislynch.
Would somebody really go to such great lengths as Makaze has as scum? I personally doubt it, but Omega has a point that if someone did, nobody would be prepared for it. There's a simple way to test it: mislynch me and see who reacts.
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Makaze, your confidence is... amusing. In fact, I'd say it helps townclear you in my book because I don't believe mafia would push someone they know is town (me) with this much certainty. Then again, I remember this same level of confidence EoD2 when Kirsche had committed an "absolute scumtell" of some sort. My confidence in your towniness is unshaken. My confidence in your reasoning is pretty much gone though.
I'm town, people. You seem to believe otherwise with a lot of certainty, but if your plan is to lynch me tomorrow regardless of how Arc flips, go ahead and lynch me now. Because I feel like my flip will do more for town than Arc's in that case. If any of you would like to ask me about particular reads and such, I can explain myself, but if you're SO certain that I'm scum that you don't think you need to engage me, then you're going to look really stupid and not very townlike when I flip.
The fact that almost everybody agrees with Makaze's logic on me is unsettling. And Arc's defense of me is either Arc trying to confirm everyone's suspicions by acting like we're buddies or Arc actually being genuine town standing up for me for standing up for them. I'm not convinced that my flip would prove anything about anyone else, but it seems we're all sheeping Makaze here and it would be better to get it out of the way.
One thing I want to make clear is that when I flip town, it doesn't clear Arc (I still think the slot is scummy) or make Kill automatically scum (I find Kill's play scummy, but Kirsche's play is hard to reconcile with Junko flip.) At any rate, lynch me and you won't be losing a valuable role or a valuable contributor. Arc is neither of those either, but whoever is pulling the strings here seems prepared to use an Arc lynch and ensuing flip in their favor. Lynching me should catch them by surprise and give town a slight advantage.
I don't know what I can tell you to convince you that my role is real. It's real, I've been hinting at it all game and I don't see why it's such an upset. It's not much of a gamechanger as far as roles go, and it's horribly nerfed in a role madness game. The reason I said Eclipse was cleared earlier was because of how confirmed scum (Shinori) (also I was still uncertain about BBM at that point) had tried to get her lynched.
I honestly don't know whether I should feel honored that you think I'm some kind of master mafioso who has managed to stay undercover this long or to feel insulted that you think I'm Arc's scumbuddy and I'm letting them behave the way they are. But seriously: what are Arc's hypothetical scumbuddies? Whenever you lynch Arc, if they flips scum I'd assume the scumteam is very disorganized or (more likely) unmotivated, I don't see them letting Arc run around like they have been doing. Finally, if you're like Walrein and are scumreading Arc just based off of his tone, please stop and look at Weapons. Arc is too much of a wild card to predict alignment from their tone, and they have no previous scum experience for us to look at.
If you guys would like to point out what bothers you the most about my play, I'd be grateful. Regardless of how scummy my actions look, I'm town so there must be a town reason for them. Also, for those of you who don't think I'm interested in scumhunting, that's one of three things that could produce the kind of content I have. The others are that I'm no good at scumhunting or that I don't have time for scumhunting, and those are the two reasons that my play (outside of my apparent "obvtown" moments) has been kinda poor.
I'm pretty bad at defending myself. In P5, I pretty much depended on other players to defend me and when they stopped, that's when I got mislynched. I was in a hurry earlier, but I stand by what I said. Anybody who wants to lynch my slot today should go look back at P5. This whole situation is giving me de ja vu.
Well, bummer it has to end like this. I'm not giving up on defending myself, but it seems like most of you have given up on reconsidering me. Omega made some interesting points above that are already making me reconsider my stance on Makaze, I'll post more on that in a bit.
##Vote: SullyMcGully
I don't know if voting oneself is a towntell or a scumtell, but given the current circumstances, it's what I think is best for town. Tomorrow if Makaze says anything about "obvtown" or "definitely scum", I ask that you politely ignore him. He doesn't seem to know what he's talking about.
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Wait, did somebody misgender me? ME? That's the funniest thing that's happened all game!
I wish I had time to respond to every post against me in detail. Unfortunately, I shouldn't even be writing this now because I have so much stuff to take care of. Maybe later today if I get a chance.
Pretty sure there's at least some scum benefit in me claiming this, but my full role is "lazy watcher". Get it? Because Rapier? Lazy?
Basically, I watch someone (find out who visits them). If that person uses a night action though, then I give up and go away. My action is reported to me as failed. N1 Elie targeted Kirsche and his role failed. Last night I targeted Eclipse and no one visited her.
Look, I'm fine with an Arc lynch. There's PoE, and Weapons was kinda weird, but as probably Arc's best friend in this game, I feel it's my duty to stand up for them when people are saying their manner of writing is scummy. It's not. Their actual reads as of last night seem scummy-ish, but the way they're talking? The "pinging"? That's Arc being Arc, and if nobody else knows that, it's my job to say that. It's all NAI.
I wish I had the time to update my reads now, but I need to go prepare for a field trip. This is starting to feel like P5, which BTW, anyone who wants to lynch my slot should go back and read a part of.
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It's also my dad's birthday. Go figure.
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OK, closing thoughts for tonight:
Would prefer an LG lynch over an Arcanite one. Walrein has yet to produce any material that gives me a townread on him, and the fact that he's pretty much been MIA all game makes associative reads very hard.
@Walrein we're probably going to settle on an LG lynch, the Arcanite wagon seems to be losing some steam. I really haven't heard enough from either your slot or LG's to get a conclusive read on either of you, but I'd like it if you'd engage with each other tonight. Also use the frickin' QT, @Refa has anything substantial come out of that yet?
Mack kinda has to be Villa - I mean town (darn you Omega with your inferior terminology!) using Makaze's logic. Makaze's logic, BTW, has been pretty sound. Pretty strong townread there, but associative reads could prove otherwise. I'll sheep Refa on Snoyke, he's been playing with the overall feel of town but his actions could line up with scum.
Good night, everyone! I've got another field trip tomorrow so I might not catch you for a while. I should be back for phase end, though.
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Freud is a fraud.
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3 minutes ago, Baldrick said:
@sully what do you make of what I said before regarding snike and kirshe
I think it makes sense. I was really townreading that slot, but the suspicion on it is merited. Kirsche was scummy towards the end as Makaze pointed out. And Kill's content has been offputting.
@Omega. You seem to know Kill pretty well compared to most of the others here. I've called him out on anti-town behavior. So has Arc. Do you think these accusations are baseless? Does Kill usually act this way in a game?
If we're looking at a scumteam where Kirsche busses Junko, then my primary reason for townreading Omega - his immediate bussing of one, potentially two scumbuddies - becomes a lot less convincing. Especially since Omega has pretty much done as I have and written off the Kirsche/Kill slot as obvtown.
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*they. Please don't mute me, Arc.
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4 minutes ago, Baldrick said:
Arcanite hasn't even read the cases on Gaius, the biggest counterwagon, or made any kind of push on killsche, who seems to be their only scumread.
Sully, do you really think Arcanite wouldn't take the game seriously even as mafia? You don't think they'd be concerned about letting down their buddies?
Well that's part of what I was saying: if Arc were to be super dedicated or serious in a game, I'd assume it would be because he had buddies.
However, if he were an SK and had no one to fail but himself... he'd probably be playing worse than he is now.
I'm not townreading the slot or anything. Arcanite has never been scum before, so there's no real way of knowing how he'd act in that situation.
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I get lynching Arc from PoE. But I think there are others I'd rather lynch first. I wanna hear more from LG.
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21 minutes ago, Makaze said:
This is bad. This is pinging
This is Arc. I know him/her/they/it better than most anyone else in the game, and I can easily see them saying what they did as town. They don't take the game as seriously as most of us do, and they're mostly here to meme anyway. The only difference is that they are the meme. And I'm only being half-joking with that.
Really not feeling an Arcanite lynch. I'm also really not liking the way Walrein is pushing Arc on really poor reasons. Arc's actual play isn't scummy at all, LOL. I mean, yeah, it would be coming from someone else, but I'm pretty sure that regardless of whether Arc was town or scum, they'd be acting the same way. If they were taking this game seriously: that would be scummy.
Walrein, get another read. This one isn't convincing at all. It's just making you look worse.
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7 hours ago, Makaze said:
No. I already half-claimed. I'm not gonna full claim. Why do you ask?
7 hours ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:Posting walls that don't even belong to me is hard.
Overall, Snike thinks Mack's responses to our theory read as someone being angry at being called out.
Mack completely flipped on his Town read on Kirsche from yesterday and earlier today, half-based on what we did and only after we came up with the theory, which reeks of OMGUS. Mack also forgot that we switched our vote to Kirsche after Junk's fake claim, as we bought into the fakeclaim somewhat and wanted to see if the role was provable.
The second point does not accurately reflect what was going on Day 1; Mack probably glossed over it.
This sounds rather angry. Mack flip-flopped again on Kirsche, since he defended Kirsche early Day 3, but is now suddenly going back to his N1 read.
Snike thinks this could be a smear on Kaoz to create doubt about Kaoz being confirmed.
This argument is wrong, because
A) is only valid if scum thought Mack was WIFOMing his night action, but there was no indication of that.
B) We already publicly claimed we got the item, so that can't happen. We would still end up getting associated with Shinori if he fake claimed Town Inventor.
Snike thinks Mack isn't even bothering to properly consider our arguments based on the tone of this post; he had already written us off.
Nah, I don't think Mack's interactions are scummy anymore. It's just Mack being Mack! I know Mack pretty well. And his posting has managed to satisfy my questions with his slot. Not to mention Makaze has raised a few good points in his favor.
6 hours ago, Refa said:The way you're pushing Mackc2 feels like a scum push to me. Feels like you're reaching to scumread him when the much simpler answer (Mackc2 is town) evades you.
Jaybee waffled on Junk hard IIRC. I don't think he's the type of player who intends to scumread two of his buddies.
Sort of agree? I quoted this when I saw it, but Snoyke's later posts caused me to doubt that.
Sorry I don't have time for a more substantial read.
##Vote: Lord Gaius
I'd rather lynch here than lynch Arcanite. The amount of effort Arcanite is putting into rereading seems like something he wouldn't do as scum. Maybe as an ITP, though.
Also, couldn't Snoyke be an ITP? Even if their role has been proven, can't SKs be OP with multiple roles to make up for what they lack in numbers?
Gotta go to work.
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OK, I didn't see that Mack post when I posted my post. Still didn't address my case though.
Goodnight!
We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER
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Why would Mafia want a watcher? To confirm town roles? I honestly don't know what scum would do with a watcher role, but I suppose if scum watched Eclipse, they could see if anybody visited her and then maybe NK that person later as a probable protective role.