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SullyMcGully

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Posts posted by SullyMcGully

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Omega. said:

    I mean, could be true, or it couldn't be. I don't know how one has confidence on either side of the fence barring knowing Junko very well. I do not; I do not even know if I have played with him before, though I'd guess I have if your memory is correct. 

    I'm confident in Junk/kirsche holding a wolf that I'll be tunneling that until the game is over or I die, barring a mason or cop inno. I'm about as confident as I was in Trinity Mafia, Brexitland, and EO3. If I'm wrong, I've misread the gamestate badly and should probably be vigged.

    Nobody's going to vig Omega of course. This is a heck of a lot of confidence, though. Everybody remember this post if down the line Omega starts waffling.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    On 4/15/2018 at 11:08 AM, Zkirsche said:

    ##Unvote
    ##Vote: Shinori

    Shinori's read post here is mediocre imo. He never explained why Walrein was rubbing him the wrong way, Refa is third on gut (???). His bit about BBM is just discrediting Bibbon's townread on BBM and he is really disliking me over the day phase but of course never explains why. Would like some expansion here. I don't think JB is unmemorable now either so would like to see what he thinks of JB's new content.

    OK, the Shinori voteswitch here bothers me a bit, as I already stated. I found a post of Omega's which covers this as well, he says it sounds like Kirsche is just picking out a post to find problems with. IMO it was a weak read and his defense of it later was unsatisfactory. Like, yeah, those were all problems that could be pointed out with the post, but was it really worth a voteswitch? What was scummy about it as opposed to just bad townplay? Why couldn't he just ask Shinori honest questions if all he wanted were answers?

    Then Kirsche switches to Mack and he goes back and digs up old Nightmare suspicions as if he's had a serious scumread there all along. But I just read over Kirsche's D1, and Kirsche's first Nightmare read is pretty insubstantial. Most of his problems with Nightmare come from his posts dealing with Mack, not from back when Nightmare was actually a player. 

    Then there's Junko. In the process of reading back over Kirsche I read the Junko posts he seemed to have the most trouble with. While I wasn't paying much attention earlier, Junko seems legitimately frustrated with Kirsche. Kirsche tunneling I can get, but I feel like he blew the actual issues with Junko's posts out of proportion. Then, when players get on his case for tunneling on Junko, Kirsche throws out two weak, short-lived cases on players he wasn't very adamant about before. Then returns to tunneling Junko. 

    I'm starting to question Omega's logic that either Junko or Kirsche needs to be scum. I'm not picking that up from my own reading, but I have a poorer sense for that sort of thing. I'm not completely averse to the idea that they're both town, but Junko actually feels town to me while Kirsche is bothering me a lot more.

    22 hours ago, Zkirsche said:

    I thought Zeus was town right from the getgo and didn't think his actions would come from scum. I felt like the people who were casing him (e.g. Fable) were more just mad at being snarked at (there was a post from Fable that really made that clear imo)

    I forgot why I quoted this one, actually. This doesn't really bother me too much, but I'm pretty sure Kirsche was calling Zeus null in the posts I read from that time period. 

    2 hours ago, Zkirsche said:

     

    @SullyMcGully Junko had plenty of time to defend himself before, in fact part of my grievance with him this phase was his defence of his actions D1. What do you think about my content itself? The analysis I make, the arguments that I made, the questions that I ask? Everyone suspecting someone doesn't necessarily indicate that they're scum (although tbh I don't feel very suspected right now. I think the only people with suspicions on me are Shinori, BBM and now you).

    ##Unvote
    ##Vote: Junko

    Should've done this yesterday.

     I should address this: I was referring to D2 with my post, while Kirsche has been active D2 and, IMO, suspicious (I recall a few other players saying Kirsche was suspicious at the time I wrote that post, but I could be wrong), Junko and his ill-fated sub have not.

    I get that Kirsche has been asking town-friendly questions. He's the one who brought the whole stupid neighborhood deal to people's attention, along with other things. But I remember P5 Mafia. Kirsche was one of my top townreads in the early portions of that game. He was a decent contributor and asked good questions. It was only once scum flipped and we got further with associative reads that we managed to put the pieces together. And then I got mislynched in Kirsche's place because Via was too high to save my butt. I'm worried Kirsche could pull another game like that. 

    As far as other stuff goes: I feel like leaving my vote where it is. Ya'll can lynch Eclipse or Junko without me if you need to, though I really don't think Junko is scum. I see some of the logic on Eclipse. I actually didn't want her to be lynched because I figured I could use my role on her tonight (her being mayor and all), but now that I think of it, chances that she (assuming she's Mafia) would carry out the NK tonight are pretty low. 

    However, if she does flip town, then my suspicion would fall on BBM. Like I said earlier, getting a player like Eclipse mislynched would be a major win for the mafia, and I would bet that one of the players highly proactive in bringing it about would be scum. 

    I'd really like it if Eclipse herself would say something. JB and LG's votes in particular feel kinda sheepy, but both of those slots have promised rereads and better info D3. We'll just have to see what happens.

    Kaoz's recent post where he talks about how we shouldn't lynch him if he doesn't die tonight makes sense, I guess. It would also make sense for scum trying to get the most out of their jailer claim to say that as well, though. Honestly, that statement made that slot seem scummier to me.

    That's all I've got for now. I need to take a break. I won't be back before deadline most likely because our dear hosts scheduled it right over milking time. :cow:

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Don't have time for a reread unfortunately. I'm fine with the votes on Eclipse for pressure purposes, but... I really don't want to lynch there. If we mess up, we're getting rid of a pretty useful town player. Yeah some of her play seems scummy, but... I just feel like there have got to be better options. Like, if this is a mislynch, then scum are going to be very happy with it.

    I'm going to read the Kirsche ISO.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Refa said:

    Would Announcer count as an Active Ability?  @SullyMcGully Please confirm/deny.  If it doesn't, Sully can just use his action on Weapons and clear/incriminate him.  I'm tempted to say he could do the same for Eclipse but I don't know if Scum!Mayor would necessarily have a second component to it.  Mackc2 can Martyr Sully so that scum doesn't fuck w/his actions.

    I have no idea, @Iris @SB. ???

    8 hours ago, Snike said:

    I feel like mack should be on kaoz tonight; otherwise kaoz is dead

    I'm doing the rest of the reads; almost done but i'm getting a little tired. I don't think I'll be doing the weapons reread tonight.

    I don't think a martyr would be very well used on my role, it kinda sucks. I agree with Snike here.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Hey ya'll. I'm kinda rushed right now, and I'm basing this all off of a very minimal reread, but here are some points:

    -When Eclipse first got on, I thought she wasn't doing very well defending herself and I thought it might be scummy but then she started the whole in-depth thing and I think I'm OK with that slot for now.

    -OK, so on the whole Kirsche/Junko deal: I'm... kinda cool with Omega's big plan here, EXCEPT I really think we oughtta lynch Kirsche instead of Junko. First off, if I had been subbed out of a scum slot I don't think I would offer to sub back in for any amount of time! Second, the logic on the Junko case is based off of a bunch of posts and reads that neither RAD nor Junko has had time to defend against. In the meantime, Kirsche has made multiple defense posts which have failed to get rid of the suspicion on him. He's had time to defend himself. We should all feel better about this, but it seems like very few people do and the fact that so many people would rather lynch MIA Junko than has-time-to-post-but-still-feels-scummy Kirsche bothers me. 

    -Mack also bothers me. The way he's posting is kinda weird compared to his Kemono Friends and P5 play. In those games, he made much larger and more frequent posts, addressed many more issues, and while he was at times scummy-seeming and some of his better moves can be attributed to a certain secret player who shall remain unnamed, I still feel like he could be doing better. So he's unmotivated? IMO scum are more likely to be unmotivated. If I were scum, I would certainly feel less motivated. And I know Mack pretty well, I don't think there's anything going on for him right now that gives him a great excuse to be as low-content as he is here.

    I would vote Mack right now, but I don't think it's a good lynch and I might not make it back before deadline. So instead

    ##Vote: Kirsche

    I'm assuming we're gonna settle on either Junko or Kirsche. I'd prefer to lynch Kirsche. I'm pretty sure ya'll can lynch Junko without my help anyway.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    That's a big knife...

    OK, that's all I've got for tonight. I feel good. Even if my contributions suck, at least I'm unlikely to be a mislynch. 

    @Neighborizers I'd be cool with being in a QT with Refa, Via, Eclipse, or whoever else you think is town. I might need help putting my role to good use... it's not really useful as it is...

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    @Omega. here's an idea! Why don't we lynch you and if you flip scum, we'll be able to assume both Kirsche and Junko are town!

    That was a joke, however, Omega's confidence almost would suggest that he already has a fair idea how things are going to turn out. Could be trying to take out two townies in fast motion. 

    Could be his personality though.

    Question: 

    How do we know for certain that there is a vig this game?

     

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    OK, this might make me more suspect, but can I say something? Yeah, I was terrible as scum in Antiheroes. BUT I was overworked and flooded with IRL stuff. And I was really just demotivated during that game because I didn't like having to be scum and really only played it because I felt like BBM needed players to start it. And TBH I hated having to check with IriSB every time I wanted to do something because I thought it made my posts feel unnatural. I didn't like the anonymous aspect either, Mafia is a social event for me and that kind of ruined it. And honestly, a lot of those mistakes are things I don't see myself doing a second time.

    So when people hold that game up as the "Sully scum standard", I don't feel like it's very accurate. I guess I shouldn't care because it is helping me to get townread a little better, but when I see reasoning I don't agree with being used to make any sort of case, I just feel like some players are going for an easy read.

    How I played as scum in Antiheroes should be of very little value in considering how I would play as scum in this game. Scum needs easy reads, these include townreads, and if people are going to townread me, I want them to get it straight.

    This post was probably a mistake.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Refa feels like he's moving through reads really quickly. Like, I'm trying to react to his Athena content and then he is townreading Athena, I start to sheep his BBM logic and I was actually in the middle of writing a post about it when life happened and then I get back and Refa is agreeing with BBM's Weapons logic. I won't say for sure that this is scummy (in fact it would be really scummy to try to pull off a lynch on a major contributor like Refa when poorer-quality contributors like Mack are under suspicion) but it is giving me mixed signals. I don't really have time to develop a read on a complex situation like this so for the time being, I'm just not going to think about Refa or Snike being scum for now.

    I'm also done thinking about Bibbon/Kaoz, like Makaze and Refa said is she was an actual jailer then it'll become apparent when her sub gets killed tonight. I don't want to lynch a potential jailer, but her claim still makes no sense. I think it was Fable who said it was a normal thing for her? Anyway, I'll leave it be.

    I liked JB's latest post OK, I also really liked whoever it was who pointed out the timestamps on JB's posts: in my readthrough, I paid no attention to timestamps, but JB's content makes sense coming from a townie at awkward times. Like, scum would probably lack the motivation to post at inconvenient times, the fact that JB has posted despite being drowsy makes him seem more town in my book. 

    I was going to vote Mack for pressure, but looks like he's back with us again. I'll look back over BBM and Kirsche tomorrow, maybe put a vote there, but I'm done for tonight. 

    Today felt really unproductive for me as far as this game goes. And I'm afraid that, with my schedule, my content will only go downhill now that the weekend is over.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    OK, I'm getting lost reading all of this.

    Refa doesn't really seem reactionary enough to be scum, like, he's been consistently producing decent material without being badgered to do so. Maybe he's just an amazing scum player and no one can ever tell the difference 'cuz he plays it so cool. That's why I wish I had some meta to look over.

    And could somebody please tell me what the flip is a chainsaw?

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Vote: JB

    I suck at Mafia. I'm going to sheep Athena and BBM for now, I still feel weird about Kirsche but even after rereading I still can't put my finger on it so I'll leave him be. The subs are throwing me off a lot. I'm kinda starting to see the old Junko case logic make a bit more sense now, but I'm going to let RAD post a bit first. Of all the subs, IMO Mack is the scummiest. But there's still so little to go off of.

    @Fable if you need a conversation starter with Mack, try Waluigi. That's his favorite.

    Agreeing with the sentiment that one of the scum is in deep, but with my scumhunting abilities, don't expect me to be the one who catches it. I can't reconcile Eclipse wanting us to be hush-hush about our roles with her being scum. And Shinori seems pretty good too, I read Kirsche's case on him but it doesn't seem as much like a scummy player as it seems like... Shinori, just being Shinori. In fact that's actually what bothers me most about Kirsche. That Shinori case was weak IMO. Too weak to be worth a voteswitch. 

    @Omega. seeing your logic, but I'd prefer to lynch for scum, not just an associative read. So I'll hold my vote off of those two for now and see what they do. 

    I'm really thinking Athena is town. If you're currently voting Athena, I want to see more of you actively pushing him for info and less of you sitting there on a case. I have a feeling that he could get cleared as town with enough action, but scum wouldn't want to lose their precious wagon. 

    Sorry guys. I was hoping I could be more useful, but that's all I've got. Also, I'm going to be pretty darn busy over the next few days, so don't expect that much from me. I'm going to try and hold out though. The last thing we need this game is another sub.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    I don't think the big point everyone is holding up on the original Nightmare case is that good though. That weird vote change is scummy, sure, but it's kind of obviously so. Isn't Nightmare supposed to be GOAT at this or something? If that's the case, I don't think he'd make such an obvious slip up. It could have just been coming from somebody who didn't think they'd be a lynch target very soon and didn't care about the reaction. 

    I'm not feeling very conclusive about this slot, am I...

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    OK, so I'm starting to see some of the logic on JB. I would kind of understand if it was just his playstyle to be this... undevoted, but he seems fairly popular and well-known around here, which means people are right to expect better of him. Until I see more effort from this slot I'm considering it scummy. He's had less good content than a lot of the people who got subbed out already. 

    Makaze jumps in and almost immediately casts shade on a widely held townread. Is this scummy? I'll have to reread Eclipse first. However, she has slacked off content-wise a bit. I would expect skilled scum to play their hardest during D1 when nothing is certain and no associative reads can be made and then quiet down, trying to use their D1 towniness for the rest of the game. However, I don't think scum would be as adamant as she is about nobody revealing their roles.

    @Mackc2 you are testing my patience. I know it's a lot to read and you're a busy guy, but by now you should have something to go off of. At least use the QT.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Honestly, Athena's post where he caught the subs up on what was going on reads like town to me. He demonstrates a pretty good knowledge of the gamestate, and outlines his own cases really well. However, I'd like to see him update his 3 top scumreads as they all come from players who haven't really posted a lot. Hence, they don't change as frequently. Hence, they're easier to make.

    Honestly, I wouldn't lynch here. Not yet. Not without something more conclusive. As it is, it almost feels like he's getting set up for a mislynch. Of course, I suppose if we did lynch there, then we'd get a better idea of who's scum and who isn't.

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