LoneStar

There's this post that talks about ch 13, the op posted this link that shows the triggers for enemy movement. Your friends can try to approach the map based on how the enemies will start to move. It's really unfortunate what that map does to people's runs. For the Silver Snow final boss, it's just gambit to break the shields and nuke with combat arts or quad brave weapons. If they didn't set themselves up with that stuff, it's kind of rough. Hopefully in either case your friends have save files that they can go back to to optimize things better. Things like equipping gambits, because I've seen newer players ignore them, and the game ends up being harder than it is.

I'm curious about the TT unit. I would like to actually invest into one of these Christmas armors.

The example you tried to use isn't transitive to my point or what I was trying to portray. Probabilities out side of 100% and 0% aren't absolute, so of course saying 90% is basically 100% is ridiculous. A probability in practical terms is simply a tool to provide "reasoning" behind an action. Since it's near impossible for things to have either 0% or 100% probably, generally there has to be a "comfort" area for what you would call reliable. I think at least 80% is where the hit rate is somewhat comfortable, especially when there isn't much you can do to improve it. Going back to your example, you're mentioning a flat $2000/mo rate that has no probability tied to it. This is an absolute case where the 0% is not getting paid, and the 100% is getting the $2000. If probability was added to it, then the pay wouldn't be a flat $2000/mo, it would have some range applied to it like $1000 - $3000. Here the average expected pay would be $2000, but there is some chance it will be higher, or lower. Here it depends on what your "hit or miss" criteria is. Getting $2000 or more is a hit and getting $1999 or less is a miss, and there is a 50/50 chance of either happening, and this doesn't change. This is where the "unreasonable" expectation comes in. But in video games where the hit rate changes, where you can have a 90% chance to hit but a 10% to miss, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that the attack will hit. Obviously there is a reason to doubt, the 10% miss chance, but on average you are more likely to have a good outcome. Unlike the 50/50 case where you get screwed half of the time. The true hit rates not being shown would actually make people less arrogant in believing that something that is chanced based at the end of the day is 100% in their favor, even though it technically is. I don't know the 2RN probabilities off of the top of my head, but if the game shows me 90% then I'll think 90% chance to hit, but 10% chance to miss. If I was showed the real numbers, say it was 92%, obviously this looks better, and I would have a more "unreasonable" expectation of the result. Even if a 70% is more favorable than it looks with 2RN, I'm not going to depend on that if there is a better way of going about the battle.

Sure how about Soldier>Cavalier>Paladin>Holy Knight Ingrid. She could pick up Fiendish Blow along the way.

I guess it's "lying" in a literal sense, but it's to the player's benefit at the end of the day. When you're playing these SRPGs and see 80%-90%, in your mind that should basically be a guaranteed hit, but with 1RN you will have the unlikely outcome happen more often than you'd like. Obviously when playing the game we aren't going to spend too much time worrying how dependable hit rates in the 70s will be especially when you probably can't do much about it early in the game. In a way I think 2RN or whatever method is implemented to make the RNG less wild, creates a more honest gaming experience. Intuitively hit rates 80% and up should feel comfortable to rely on, and even if a miss happens, surely another won't happen consecutively... right? Then there's the converse for 40% and below. And like you mentioned showing the actual hit rate will be convoluted because of the math involved that most people aren't going to be aware of. Showing the hit base hit rate, that you can calculate easily if you want is fine, and you're not going to be stressing over a 90% missing or a 30% hitting that much anyways.

I'm curious about the Feud skills. The description seems pretty redundant to me. "If in combat against a red foe, disables skills of all foes, excluding foe in combat, and inflicts Atk/Spd/Def/Res-4 on foe during combat. During combat, disables skills of all red foes, excluding foe in combat." I don't now if I'm missing something here. Maybe this extends to Save skills from Red foes, but since there's no inheritance restriction according to GamePress, that would be kind of busted. I would think Green units wouldn't get this, but I guess the color triangle has been dead for a while. Also no cavalry restriction with potential anti-save is borked too since the main reason saves are need is because of the high threat range cavalry units.

Veld is kinda busted in Summoner Battles. I guess the 7 Veld fans will have some pay off, there's even someone in my Friend's list with a +10 Veld.

I'll have to try and not dread it too much. Like someone said earlier at least ranks aren't tied to it. The guy isn't safe either. This is going to be a wild 12 months. I'm not too far into the Play-by-Play video, but man Veronica unequiped Duo Lif prf, just to have a nice fun game. Meanwhile Alfonse brought saves and all sorts of try hard stuff. I'm the Veronica in this situation, that's why I'm scared.

I noticed Ash had quite the features, and sure enough she transforms into a cow. She's even a light mythic that boosts attack, literally "I'm done playing with you" to Freyja. The sort by dancer option is really nice, I use one set of my favorites for those type of units already. I'm not too excited about the new pvp mode, and I can't really avoid it since the rewards are so good. I hope it's some thing that's limited time so that I don't have to engage too often.

I'm curious who the main artist for the OCs will be for this book. It has been Kosaki every odd numbered book, then someone else for the even numbered ones. The big names that aren't previous Fire Emblem main game artists are Sencha and Cuboon. I'm doubting Cuboon, due to the NFT thing, and he's pretty controversial so I don't want the drama. Sencha's art is probably my favorite in the game so that would be cool, not the getting baited by every character part though.

Ah yes Marth: Prince of Light my favorite book 1 hero. That being said, they already made a chibi of Gatekeeper, so I wonder if the CYL 6 women will get there's as well. I sure hope so, I would be eating good as they say.

I'm looking forward to the potential Mythic Remix in February since I'm still missing Naga. Otherwise I'm going to try to avoid these types of banners for the next 6 months at least.

That's one of the annoying things to deal with every voting gauntlet. It's kind of minor on the first day anyway, but obviously it's better if you can complete the quests efficiently.

I'm curious to see how the other League members feel about AFO taking over, they see that Shigaraki is losing himself. Even though they weren't all buddy-buddy they must feel weird about losing him this way, Dabi is the only one I expect not to care much. Like some of you have mentioned the character development for most of the cast is pretty lacking. I get that Deku is the main character, but it's weird having all of these characters not doing much, but it looks like things are starting to change.

No Poll? I'm thinking of joining Phina, mainly since I have her at a low level and can avoid the typical nonsense. Otherwise I'll pivot over to Mamori/Tsubasa, since those are the characters I'm actually familiar with.

Sounds interesting, but might be a little too complex. I had a thought before about the Plates, that changes Arceus' typing to enable an additional typing to Pokemon who hold it. It wouldn't add a fully third typing, but add like a half type so that it wouldn't be too strong.

I would assume that if you dismissed a battalion, it's data wouldn't carry over to NG+. I would also assume that the levels would reset if you sold and bought a battalion again. I can't do any testing right now, but you could probably figure the first question without too much issue. The second question would be a hassle if someone hasn't tested that already. Sorry that this wasn't too helpful.

Awakening baby here, not too familiar with the older games. Awakening: Vaike(Axe Infantry), Kellam(Lance Armor), Miriel(Red Tome Infantry), Laurent(Blue Tome Cavalier, insta 3-4 star)), Priam(Sword Infantry, GHB) Fates: Dwyer(Staff Cavalier), Kiragi(Green Bow Infantry), Sophie(Lance Cavalier), Hisame(Sword Infantry, insta 3-4 star), Hans(Axe Infantry, GHB) Echoes: Jesse(Blue Dagger Infantry), Est(Bow Flier), Mycen(Lance Cavalier), Kamui(Sword Infantry, insta 3-4 star), Rudolf(Lance Cavalier, GHB) Three Houses(1): Felix(Sword Infantry), Dorothea(Blue Tome Infantry), Sylvain(Lance Cavalier), Ignatz(Colorless Bow Infantry, insta 3-4 star), Miklan(Blue Armor Beast, GHB) Three Houses(2): Timeskip Marianne(Sword Cavalier), Timeskip Lorenz(Staff Cavalier), Timeskip Bernadetta(Blue Bow Cavalier), Timeskip Caspar(Axe Infantry, insta 3-4 star), Thales(Red Tome Infantry, GHB) Fallen: Scarlet(Lance Flier), Rhea(Colorless Infantry Dragon), Sumeragi(Sword Infantry), Mikoto(Blue Bow Infantry) CYL: Chrom, Felix, F!Byleth, Bernadetta For Three Houses there needs to be relic representation, so Sylvain comes with Lance of Ruin, Marianne with Blutgang, and with Lorenz Thyrsus. There are existing sprites of some characters from Gatekeepers Rallying Horn, and pre timeskip Lorenz is shown as a Red Infantry, so his timeskip getting Thyrsus makes sense. I'm not too sure about the Fallen Heroes, most of them are from Fates. I'm curious what stretches they'll make for other characters. A different type of banner would be refreshing at this point. Not going to bother with weapon predictions for CYL for now. I'm predicting Felix is going to follow the trend with Marianne and Lysithea, where he gets a good chunk of votes because his base version isn't in yet. Yuri got added so he's going to drop. I feel like since both M!Byleth and F!Corrin got resent seasonals they'll drop too. The Bernadetta cult has been going strong even after she got a seasonal alt, so we'll see. It's 3H heavy again, so I might throw in either M!Robin or Seliph as wild cards.

They're probably going to do something similar to Hardin where he's not here so that those characters can talk about him in the Forging Bonds. I'm not sure how much that sort of thing is needed, if those two don't have any other character traits. Man IS is power creeping my whole Astra core. I've been using Bernadetta and Annette for the longest while. NY!Plumeria exists, and NY!Reginn is pretty much guaranteed, so now it's time for Lilith to get powercreept by her self probably copium.

Sylvain could be a good Fortress Knight -> Great Knight. I can't test it right now, since I uninstalled Three Houses for SMTV, but I'd suspect his personal skill + Mauela with her's as an adjutant can make a good tank. And general advice when looking up information is to see if it is up to date, since that reddit post is 2+ years old.

I'm thinking Eitri too without considering external factors. I'd love for her to be a Red Light Mythic because my Light teams are usually missing a Red unit. Also I'm expecting a ranged Gullinbursti, which would be so nice on offense, but a pain on defense with Nott if she's Dark. I've been saving specifically for this month so hopefully some Plumeria and Dagr merges, as well as mister meta.

Sounds kind of memey, but not the bad kind. Edelgard is a strong combat unit so she'd rather be the one getting danced, but like @Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said if you have other strong units it could work fine. She also doesn't have the additional utility that the other good Dancer candidates have like, 3 range magic, Meteor, Bolting, Physic, or a Riding asset for quick Mov +1. It would definitely be interesting. I've seen Dancer Dimitri because you can stack a lot of avoid with his timeskip personal skill and Sword Avoid+20 from getting Dancer.

Like people are saying Ironman is just not resetting the game. I guess there can be an argument for Divine Pulse abuse, but the game is balanced around it with the ambush spawns. The only things from the DLC that are busted is the Chalice and Dark Flier to an extent, but you haven't been abusing the Chalice.

I was thinking the same thing too. The Kids banner is another that would have been Harmonic if they didn't break the cycle at some point. Why does Shamir have to be an Axe unit? I have so many axe units built up already. I didn't +10 Hana from last year, but she's literally going to be an upgrade to her.

I was just looking through my AR teams and I noticed Lilith. She didn't show up on the Dragon Halloween banner this year so the Ninja banner could be a another opportunity, especially since Corrin is here. I would love a Trace skill on my Lilith, and who else better to have a Atk/Res or Spd/Res Near Trace than a seasonal Lilith. Would a Leila and Lilith Harmonized work? They have some similar traits... Granted Lilith would have to be the lead so that they have the map wide teleport probably.