What if Ludveck won?

[Jotari]

@lenticular brought up Ludveck on the unpopular opinions thread, and @Acacia Sgt speculated that if Ludveck would have won, he would have invaded Daein. And that got me thinking, genuinely, how would the rest of the story go if Elincia was hit with a stray ballista bolt and Ludveck had gained control of Crimea? If he did invade Daein to fullfill his populist talk and pre-empt a hypothetical first strike from Daein...wouldn't that have kind of been a good thing for the good guys? Well, for Ike and the Laguz at any rate. Micaiah would have been too busy to put any forces in Begnion to assist against the Laguz invasion. Though, I'm not sure if that would have actually changed anything, Zelgius still probably could have fought them off, if maybe taking a little longer. The big change probably would have come when Valtome pursued the Laguz army by marching through Crimea. Something Ludveck either would have been more hardlined against letting Begnion even have an edge, or maybe capitulated way more than Elincia did if he felt he had no choice or thought he could gain something from it. But his strongman persona makes me feel the former. In which case, things kind of turn out the same for the Heroes and Part 2 was sort of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things?

[Etrurian emperor]

I doubt Ludveck would have invaded Daein. Rabble rousing against the former enemy is great for gaining support but once he has the throne the use for that story has ran out. Its doubtful Ludveck has a genuine bone to pick with Daein. I think he'd be likely to dismiss Peleas as weak and try to manipulate him, or maybe browbeat him into giving concessions so he can make true on his though guy image without actually doing anything. 

I don't remember Ludbeck being particularly racist and the Crimean upper class is supposed to be somewhat more moderate on race issues. So I don't think Ludveck would be interested in outright joining Begnion. But letting Begnion troops cross his lands seems like something he'd opportunistically do to appease the Senate without having to do anything meaningfully. 

[Acacia Sgt]

If Ludveck does not intend to actually fight Daein, then he's doing a bad job in convincing the people not to. Or his underlings didn't got the memo.

2-1 Dialogue:

Yeardley:
“…We are the victors. It was Crimean blood and sweat that defeated Ashnard! And what do we have to show for it? We do not rule Crimea. Our towns have been destroyed. We need coin to ease our suffering. Who’s to blame?”

Young Man:
“The queen!”

Yeardley:
“We’ve been violated! Daein robbed us of families, friends, and homes! We cannot reconcile with monsters! And now, our hated enemy is rebuilding to threaten us again. Will we stand by and accept this?”

Young Man:
“No! We will not!”

Yeardley:
“To arms, I say! We are not afraid! We shall fight for the prosperity of our fatherland, as did Ike the patriot!”

Stuff like this only ensures he has a frenzied population if he does take the throne. So if he starts talking about backing out... well, now HE is the one who would be seen as weak. If a not-insignificant part of the population is already willing to fight against Elincia...

Ludveck is capitalizing on something that's already there. From 2-P's narration:

There is an ever-widening gap emerging between Crimea’s noble class and the nation’s young ruler, Queen Elincia. Crimea lost its king during the Daein invasion, and Elincia is still an inexperienced ruler. What’s more, her very existence was a secret from the public, and so she came unexpectedly to her succession.

Many of Crimea’s noble houses raised their voices in protest against her rule. Elincia’s desire for a long-lasting peace has driven her to strengthen Crimea’s ties with the laguz nation of Gallia, and to renounce Crimea’s claim to rule over a defeated Daein. Her political moderation is seen as a sign of weakness among her critics. Ike, the young hero who led Crimea to victory in the Mad King’s War, was granted a peerage for his heroism and bravery. The elevation of a common mercenary to the nobility, however, widened the rift between the aristocracy and the queen yet further. Perhaps to avoid becoming mired in these power struggles, Ike renounced his peerage and took his leave of the court. Yet Ike’s actions did little to placate the nobility. They continue to criticize the queen’s every decision, and lay squarely at her feet the blame for all of Crimea’s woes.

Then from 2-1's:

While Elincia’s show of loyalty to her laguz allies causes an uproar among the nobles at court, they are aware that the heron princess is under the mutual protection of the mighty laguz hawk king and raven king. Because of this, there is no public show of distaste. However, dissatisfaction with Elincia’s rule now spreads from a single faction to a larger group. Crimea’s unity is slowly rotting from within.

The people already don't like Elincia went easy on Daein. So I doubt they'd be more accepting of a ruler who promises to do something... and then never does. In addition Anti-Laguz sentiments still remain high in Crimea. Furthermore, from 2-2:

Laguz vs Maraj

Maraj: To associate with beasts like you… One has to wonder where the queen acquired such a lack of taste.

Simply put, Elincia is criticized lots and even her legitimacy to the throne is suspect. Ludveck may possibly be using that to catapult his own ambitions, but considering how smart he's suppose to come by, I doubt he wouldn't deliver. If he's aware he's egging the population for a war with Daein, he'd knew better than to back from that.

Edited January 2 by Acacia Sgt

[lenticular]

2 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Simply put, Elincia is criticized lots and even her legitimacy to the throne is suspect. Ludveck may possibly be using that to catapult his own ambitions, but considering how smart he's suppose to come by, I doubt he wouldn't deliver. If he's aware he's egging the population for a war with Daein, he'd knew better than to back from that.

I agree with this. He comes across much more as a populist and an opportunist than a conviction politician. He likely doesn't have that much of a strong opinion either way about war with Daein, but he would go for it if he thought it was a popular move that would consolidate his power. Similarly for his relationship with laguz. He might or might not be a racist, but I doubt he would let that stop him from fanning the flames of racism in his subjects if he thought that havign a scapegoat would be politically expedient. So my assumption is that he would side with Begnion against Gallia, both because Begnion is more powerful and because war against laguz would be an easier sell.

[Etrurian emperor]

6 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Simply put, Elincia is criticized lots and even her legitimacy to the throne is suspect. Ludveck may possibly be using that to catapult his own ambitions, but considering how smart he's suppose to come by, I doubt he wouldn't deliver. If he's aware he's egging the population for a war with Daein, he'd knew better than to back from that.

Elincia opened herself up to that ploy by wanting to be a kind queen. Ludveck on the other hand isn't hindered by that. If some plebs started complaining he'd likely just go make an example of them. 

[Acacia Sgt]

1 minute ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Elincia opened herself up to that ploy by wanting to be a kind queen. Ludveck on the other hand isn't hindered by that. If some plebs started complaining he'd likely just go make an example of them. 

Sure, but then ousting himself a tyrant will only result in him losing even more support. He'd be well aware that he set precedent for Crimean rulers to be overthrown by Crimeans.

Also, it's not just the commoners. The nobles share the same grief that Elincia was kind/merciful to Daein. If Ludveck wants to continue having their support, sooner or later he will have to commit with his promises of subjugating Daein in revenge for the Mad King's War.

[Eltosian Kadath]

I doubt Ludveck's invasion of Daein would amount to much. When Ike and crew storm through, we see how much of a quagmire the bridge would be for a force as lite on air forces, and heavy on cavalry as Crimea's is, and it was garrisoned by troops that weren't part of Micaiah's expeditionary forces. I don't think Ludveck actually cares enough about invading Daein to expend the political capital necessary for the extended, and expensive campaign of breaking through that bridge; thus I think the invasion would stall out on the bridge, and not significantly impact Daein's role in the Begnion-Laguz war, as long as the blood pact is still tying their hands with bad writing.

The biggest difference would be when the Begnion forces try to cross through Crimea into Gallia, and while it would definitely go differently, I could see it go many way. I could see Ludveck offering to join Begnion for the kill against Gallia, perhaps offering Crimean help for territorial gains from Gallia Begnion would have a difficult time managing themselves. Alternatively I could see him being very defensive, and trying to repel Begnion's encroachment of Crimea by force. The more interesting outcome I could see as likely is if Ludveck ensnares Velthome in a long extended discussion over what form of compensation would be necessary to allow this incursion, requiring delays for exotic "gifts" to be brought from the Begnion capital, until the Empress's escape ends the escapade without a Crimean skirmishes at all.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

I think there are definitely "degrees" to consider. It's not a dichotomy between "Let's be besties with Daein" and "Let's declare war and destroy Daein".

Ludveck seems too savvy to enter into a war that will cost more Crimean blood and threaten his own popularity. Rather, I see him taking a bit of a "cold war" approach. Expel Daein nationals still in Crimea. Close the border - maybe tear down pitfall bridge itself. Put an embargo on trade, and only relent once Daein pays sufficient "reparations". Maybe go to Begnion, as their "suzerain" state, to try to force the ineffectual Prince Pelleas' hand. All the while, building the Crimean army back up for a "rainy day".

It's possible that war will come, but it certainly won't be Ludveck's first priority, nor his initial tactic.

[Ruy]

About going to war with Daein, I agree he would not have launched a full scale invasion. At most reinforce the border and give some speeches, just politics.

Also, I think it would be interesting to know would happen after Renning was healed and he returned to Crimea. Would Ludveck step aside as ruler of Crimea peacefully? Or there would have been a new civil war?

[Original Alear]

2 hours ago, Ruy said:

About going to war with Daein, I agree he would not have launched a full scale invasion. At most reinforce the border and give some speeches, just politics.

Also, I think it would be interesting to know would happen after Renning was healed and he returned to Crimea. Would Ludveck step aside as ruler of Crimea peacefully? Or there would have been a new civil war?

Renning might not be an incredibly vengeful person, but I don't think he would let Ludveck go without death or at least imprisonment due to Elincia being dead, and I think Ludveck would know that.

[Ruy]

37 minutes ago, Original Alear said:

Renning might not be an incredibly vengeful person, but I don't think he would let Ludveck go without death or at least imprisonment due to Elincia being dead, and I think Ludveck would know that.

Yes, but I also think Ludveck would realize most of Crimea would side with Renning. If it came to war, he would lose, no doubt. So he might ask for pardon, in exchange for his surrender.

[Jotari]

9 hours ago, Ruy said:

Also, I think it would be interesting to know would happen after Renning was healed and he returned to Crimea. Would Ludveck step aside as ruler of Crimea peacefully? Or there would have been a new civil war?

That is a super interesting spanner in the works that I didn't consider. Renning was the public heir with, presumably, a kit of genuine support by the people. However, the people really don't matter at all, if Ludveck had been greasing the arms of the nobility and had them firmly on his side by then he might be able to get away with staying in power over Renning.

[lenticular]

I don't think it would be too hard for Ludveck to discredit Renning in this circumstance. "You abandoned us at our time of need and only come back after I've rebuilt the country!" "You aren't actually Renning, just some cheap lookalike that my enemies are trying to use to discredit me!" "The trauma you suffered during the war was too great, and you should live out a life without the pressures of rule!" "Your niece disgraced your family and took away your line's right to rule!" And so on and so forth. Yeah, the logic is pretty dubious, but there's enough there to build a case. And if there are enough people, either noble or common, who want to be convinced then the strength of argument doesn't matter for all that much.

[Jotari]

5 hours ago, lenticular said:

I don't think it would be too hard for Ludveck to discredit Renning in this circumstance. "You abandoned us at our time of need and only come back after I've rebuilt the country!" "You aren't actually Renning, just some cheap lookalike that my enemies are trying to use to discredit me!" "The trauma you suffered during the war was too great, and you should live out a life without the pressures of rule!" "Your niece disgraced your family and took away your line's right to rule!" And so on and so forth. Yeah, the logic is pretty dubious, but there's enough there to build a case. And if there are enough people, either noble or common, who want to be convinced then the strength of argument doesn't matter for all that much.

Would also depend how much of a purge Ludveck carries out on the pro Elincia sentiment with his inital take over. If he left Geoffrey alive and well ruling minor province then he could possibly martial forces to back a returning Renning. And if we have a scenario where Ludveck goes to the tower, and well he does or doesn't ingratiate himself to the other powers in the world (and Ike) would have an impact on how other nations might throw in with a hypothetical Renning vs Ludveck conflict.

[Cysx]

He's definitely a pretty big opportunist, so he'd likely pick the winning side of the war and backstab Gallia. Which would potentially result in the enslavement of the Gallian laguz since Begnion has Naesala and Daein in its pocket, most of Phoenicis is out of the picture, and the dragons would likely do nothing.

... in actuality, that'd awaken Ashera and they'd all be turned to stone (except the branded ?). Plus, it is unlikely that the Greil Mercenaries would let things go, or the Crimean Royal Knights for that matter. And indeed, Renning would be its own can of worms, but then again, he needed the galdr of rebirth to be healed, and I'm not sure how that would happen.

 

Incidentally, Ludveck is one of the characters getting the biggest amount of additional dialogue from the extended script. Here are some pretty important lines :

“If I wanted you killed, it would be maddeningly simple to do so. Your Majesty is not cautious, in the slightest, of anyone and easy to get close to. I could just hide a blade or perhaps prepare some poisoned wine, while saying some pleasing words to you, slowly befriending you. Yet if that were the case… I fear even at death you wouldn’t have suspected a thing and would just smile happily at me. Moreso, Crimea would enter another time of turbulence. The nearby nations would declare me a traitor and use it as an excuse to invade Crimea. To prevent this scenario from happening, I had to have Your Majesty abdicate out of your own free will and then appoint me as the new king.”

and

“Ha, such naive reasoning. What is wrong about using civilians!? Without even lifting a finger, civilian numbers will rise by themselves. Human live are as cheap as grass, isn’t that the truth? These small insignificant bundles of life don’t have any impact on the country’s well-being. However, a king is different. Without a king, a country cannot stand. A country needs its king. It needs a powerful king!”

Aka he doesn't actually want to kill Elincia, and he's not actually a populist at all. It's also funny how the first line is really good and the second one, well not so much imo.

Edited January 4 by Cysx

[Jotari]

18 minutes ago, Cysx said:

Aka he doesn't actually want to kill Elincia, and he's not actually a populist at all. It's also funny how the first line is really good and the second one, well not so much imo.

What do you mean by good and not so much? Morally good or in terms of writing quality? And what first or second line are you referring to? The individual first two lines of the first posted text or do you mean the entirety of both texts?

[Cysx]

2 minutes ago, Jotari said:

What do you mean by good and not so much? Morally good or in terms of writing quality? And what first or second line are you referring to? The individual first two lines of the first posted text or do you mean the entirety of both texts?

The entirety of both, sorry for the confusion. And what I mean is that I think the first quote strengthens his character while the second one pushes saturday morning cartoon vilainy.

[Jotari]

3 minutes ago, Cysx said:

The entirety of both, sorry for the confusion. And what I mean is that I think the first quote strengthens his character while the second one pushes saturday morning cartoon vilainy.

Slightly, but it does still give some more insight. In that he genuinely does believe in powerful monarchy and not just powerful monarchy in which he's at the top. It would come around better if he had some post Part 2 relevance and actually came around to seeing Elincia as a strong monarch with her own way of dealing with things. But as it happens, he just vanishes from the plot entirely with his last line actually being before Lucia's attempted execution. Nothing after wards.

[Cysx]

3 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Slightly, but it does still give some more insight. In that he genuinely does believe in powerful monarchy and not just powerful monarchy in which he's at the top. It would come around better if he had some post Part 2 relevance and actually came around to seeing Elincia as a strong monarch with her own way of dealing with things. But as it happens, he just vanishes from the plot entirely with his last line actually being before Lucia's attempted execution. Nothing after wards.

It is a pretty big shame. I've been thinking recently that for all the talk of FE villains being same-y and made of tropes, part 1 and 2 of RD had pretty good ones. Jarod starts out simplistic but by the end there's a lot going on with him, and Ludveck does come off as a really strong character as well with a genuinely well thought out plan.

[SnowFire]

I think Ludveck is a pretty great villain and agree with the slant that we need some "grounded" villains too.  That said, for what what if scenario...  uh...  whatever the writers want to happen?

"But Snowfire", you say.  "It's fiction.  Of course it's susceptible to the whims of the writers.  What would make sense?  That's what's really being asked."  And here I stand by my original answer: whatever the hell you want.  A civil war and a new ruler is a reason for *anything* to happen afterward, fiction or no.  It's like drawing from the deck of many things or rolling a 100-sided die.  What happens after a rebellion can be just about anything, and it doesn't have to "make sense", historically.  William the Conqueror won one battle and put his bloodline on the English throne for centuries and added a lot more Norman French influence into upper-class English.  Richard III took office during a time of strife, faced a rebellion, won a battle, reigned for a little more, faced another rebellion, lost that battle, then died.  Some rebels have done exactly what they said they'd do, others executed their closest allies and barely abided by their original claimed ideology.  If you're writing a time travel story, these times are the really fragile "from here, possibilities explode" nexii.

So yeah.  You pretty much have an excuse to write whatever you like - a continuing civil war against Elincia's friends and allies (notably including one Ike, who like it or not is established as the local supreme badass in the world)?  An internal purge of laguz?  An unsteady peace as King Ludveck desperately tries not to rock the boat, and possibly a desperate search for allies (probably the Benignon Senate, since uh who else is there?)?  Ludveck himself getting promptly offed by Volke or something?  A foolish invasion of Daien or Gallia?  I could potentially buy ANY of them.

(Realistically, not gonna happen dramatically of course - I could see a plotline where Elincia gets captured or something, but killing off characters like that in sequels is tough and will make fans unhappy.  If you want a character to die in a story like this, you gotta set it up in the first story or just do it then - given Elincia's role in FE9, it would be a real GRRM-style kick in the teeth to kill her in FE10.)

[Jotari]

2 hours ago, SnowFire said:

I think Ludveck is a pretty great villain and agree with the slant that we need some "grounded" villains too.  That said, for what what if scenario...  uh...  whatever the writers want to happen?

"But Snowfire", you say.  "It's fiction.  Of course it's susceptible to the whims of the writers.  What would make sense?  That's what's really being asked."  And here I stand by my original answer: whatever the hell you want.  A civil war and a new ruler is a reason for *anything* to happen afterward, fiction or no.  It's like drawing from the deck of many things or rolling a 100-sided die.  What happens after a rebellion can be just about anything, and it doesn't have to "make sense", historically.  William the Conqueror won one battle and put his bloodline on the English throne for centuries and added a lot more Norman French influence into upper-class English.  Richard III took office during a time of strife, faced a rebellion, won a battle, reigned for a little more, faced another rebellion, lost that battle, then died.  Some rebels have done exactly what they said they'd do, others executed their closest allies and barely abided by their original claimed ideology.  If you're writing a time travel story, these times are the really fragile "from here, possibilities explode" nexii.

So yeah.  You pretty much have an excuse to write whatever you like - a continuing civil war against Elincia's friends and allies (notably including one Ike, who like it or not is established as the local supreme badass in the world)?  An internal purge of laguz?  An unsteady peace as King Ludveck desperately tries not to rock the boat, and possibly a desperate search for allies (probably the Benignon Senate, since uh who else is there?)?  Ludveck himself getting promptly offed by Volke or something?  A foolish invasion of Daien or Gallia?  I could potentially buy ANY of them.

(Realistically, not gonna happen dramatically of course - I could see a plotline where Elincia gets captured or something, but killing off characters like that in sequels is tough and will make fans unhappy.  If you want a character to die in a story like this, you gotta set it up in the first story or just do it then - given Elincia's role in FE9, it would be a real GRRM-style kick in the teeth to kill her in FE10.)

Most of those real life rebellions didn't have the sub pot if god reawakening and initiating the rapture (though a few people at the time probably believed the apocalypse was right around the corner as a subsection of society always seems to believe).

[Acacia Sgt]

Considering the larger narrative is "Sephiran engineering continent-wide war", expect this also becoming part of his plan. So behind the scenes he keeps goading the "must attack Daein" sentiments, as insurance in case Lekain somehow never thinks on using the Blood Pact. So a Crimean-Daein war happening in concurrence with the Laguz Alliance vs Begnion one, and it'd definitely speed up the time of Judgement.

[SnowFire]

On 1/5/2024 at 2:34 AM, Jotari said:

Most of those real life rebellions didn't have the sub pot if god reawakening and initiating the rapture (though a few people at the time probably believed the apocalypse was right around the corner as a subsection of society always seems to believe).

I guess.  But why would Ludveck know or care about any of that?  Thanks to the plot twists of FE10, even the FE9 hero crew were retroactively clueless about what was really going on with Lehran's Medallion and what would have happened if Reyson had sung the Galdr of Release "early" in FE9.  The only person who really understands what is going on as of C2-C3 according to FE10 is Micaiah.  I kinda doubt that Ludveck would have been swayed one way or the other on this count until it was too late and the world (presumably including him) gets stoned, at least assuming some form of the battle in Chapter 3 Endgame happens anyway and Yune / Ashera wakes up.  (If you're about to suggest that the C3-E battle wouldn't include ALL of the nations of the world fighting if Ludveck just sat at home and consolidated power, it seems likely to me that Ike & co. would still count as honorary Crimeans, even if they fought without the aid of Elincia and any subordinates of her that were killed in the hypothetical 2-E-gone-wrong.)

[Acacia Sgt]

2 hours ago, SnowFire said:

I guess.  But why would Ludveck know or care about any of that?  Thanks to the plot twists of FE10, even the FE9 hero crew were retroactively clueless about what was really going on with Lehran's Medallion and what would have happened if Reyson had sung the Galdr of Release "early" in FE9.  The only person who really understands what is going on as of C2-C3 according to FE10 is Micaiah.  I kinda doubt that Ludveck would have been swayed one way or the other on this count until it was too late and the world (presumably including him) gets stoned, at least assuming some form of the battle in Chapter 3 Endgame happens anyway and Yune / Ashera wakes up.  (If you're about to suggest that the C3-E battle wouldn't include ALL of the nations of the world fighting if Ludveck just sat at home and consolidated power, it seems likely to me that Ike & co. would still count as honorary Crimeans, even if they fought without the aid of Elincia and any subordinates of her that were killed in the hypothetical 2-E-gone-wrong.)

It wasn't the Galdr of Release what Reyson wanted to do. It was more about bringing destruction.

I think even Micaiah didn't actually knew until the very events of 3-E. Likely due to all the accumulated chaos, Yune was strong enough to guide her to the fortress and plant her the knowledge they needed to sing the Galdr of Release now.

You know, that's an interesting point. I think he was indeed petrified, since from what Geoffrey and Bastian said, the only non-petrified person they found was Amy. Unless they never bothered to check the dungeons. Would've been hilarious if Ludveck hadn't been petrified, and basically missed out the whole thing clueless... or he died of starvation since there was no one to bring him food. Being petrified would be better then...

I wonder. Is it really about having representatives from every nation? It sounds like it's more just general conflict and chaos-generation. Considering nations can come and go, seems weird countries that did not even exist when the pledge was made now have to abide by it. We know there can be a distinction, since that's how the Branded avoided Judgement. They did not exist yet when the pledge was made.

[SnowFire]

8 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

I wonder. Is it really about having representatives from every nation? It sounds like it's more just general conflict and chaos-generation. Considering nations can come and go, seems weird countries that did not even exist when the pledge was made now have to abide by it. We know there can be a distinction, since that's how the Branded avoided Judgement. They did not exist yet when the pledge was made.

If I was writing Radiant Dawn, I'd agree.  I think that implying that magic "knows" what nation people are and nationality is something mysteriously true is some combination of dumb and problematic.  Unfortunately, I think it is intended to be a thing, though.  The Blood Pact clearly works on citizenry of a specific nation, and there's some lines somewhere in RD about how Ashnard was trying to taunt Goldoa into fighting him by intentionally screwing up Rajaion as a gesture of insult, and if Goldoa had joined the war, then maybe it'd have ended the world on the spot due to all the nations really taking part.  So...  depending on how exactly the pledge worked, it could maybe be argued that a hyper-isolationist Ludveck-led Crimea could have stalled Ashera's return, although per above I don't really buy it anyway..