Fakeclaim Mafia - Game Over

[Sunwoo]

Boron: Be polite.

scorri: Make me.

[Grassbridger]

Oh wait I figured it out.

Yeah, I'm an idiot.

##Unvote

[scorri]

Boron: You get mad when people are rude to you, why should be be allowed to be rude to others?

[Grassbridger]

Bizz: for 10 minutes I thought I'd literally found someone posting something that they couldn't possibly know without someone else telling them. So I voted for that person. Yes, I think there's probably a scum on scorri's d1 wagon, so I have like a 30-40% chance of hitting scum if I vote there (since I could be wrong about the wagon, or wrong about the person) but I thought Boron was like 80-90%.

[Sunwoo]

Boron: You get mad when people are rude to you, why should be be allowed to be rude to others?

I'm not. But in that particular case what I said isn't particularly any worse than Paperblade saying something like, "I think Shin and Objection are too dumb to be scum" or anyone else saying that.

[Grassbridger]

I kind of agree with Boron here because her calling me an idiot got me to THINK REALLY HARD about why what she said made sense, longer than I might have otherwise.

[Sunwoo]

Regardless, I was a bit meaner in the second post than I should've been, sorry about that. Either way, I'm glad you caught onto what I'm trying to say, but I have reasons for trying to be cryptic.

[eclipse]

Why does that Weapons thing not surprise me?

Note that I'm saying mafia/not mafia. I'm not sure why someone having fakeclaimed SK is a prereq to being an SK in this game. Mafia certainly doesn't look to be roles that were people fakeclaiming mafia, why would SK be different? That said I don't feel like going SK hunting atm

Assuming that Grassbridger read wrong about the vig crumb, then any killing role would work for a third-party kill (that's usually SK). Now, if it's an intended SK with a fake claim from another role, that could be messy.

Since he claimed an INNO on Euk, would it be asking much for a full claim from weapons?

What?

We have like 42 hours left FYI. I honestly think we should just go for a turbolynch since discussion is at a minimum right now, unless anyone has some new discussion topics to add to the table.

You made this post while I was waiting for my mom to pick me up from work (and there's more than half the phase to burn, to boot). The fact that you're suggesting that the town stops discussion is seriously anti-town (like, I can't see why n00b town would even think this).

Honestly, I'm not sure why that would indicate that you're not scum, especially considering that we know that at least one of the people on it was town (Shinori). Care to elaborate?

The last vote on that wagon was Shinori, and look what he flipped. What you've mentioned isn't even a tell.

Also not liking that reaction test. Keep in mind, if we had lynched Euklyd, and he did flip town, then we would have no doubt lynched Weapons the following day. So that backpedaling doesn't really make him look good.

This is AFTER you suggested a turbowagon. The more I read of this, the less I like you.

I Like how weapons has no place to stick his vote now, and essentially wasted a day on a reaction test with no other discussion aside from "yea he's scum".

Also Refa and bizz why encourage blowing half the day off? Ppl like Kay and Eclipse and psych (and to an extent, Boron) have barely had time to post; that's cutting out like 1/3 of our players opportunity.

Scumhunting is a thing. What do you think of that Euklyd/Weapons interaction?

I was a major counterwagon to a scum wagon. I was a major bandwagon. The wagon formed on me so quickly it's highly unlikely that there wasn't at least one scum on that wagon. Why would scum so quickly push a counterwagon on another scum member?

They thought their hooker was more valuable than your role (if you are scum)? I have no idea what the mafia strategy is, and I think the majority of the game has no idea, either.

Yes, but... I think there's a bit of circular logic there. In saying "it's highly unlikely that there wasn't at least one scum", you're presupposing that you're town.

That said, I have a townread on practically everyone except Poly and the people who jumped to the Scorri wagon (Refa, Bizz, Paperblade, Psych) so I like your chances of being town (since I agree that there was probably a scum on your wagon).

Uh. . .you presupposed yourself as town, so why is this even a point?

I didn't think we would get a turbolynch until Eclipse or Psych came on anyways, and Kay isn't even playing atm (BBM said he's looking for a sub, and hasn't found one).

THEN WHY DID YOU EVEN SUGGEST A TURBOWAGON?!

Well, my read on Paperblade was mostly based on his massclaim suggestion and general lack of reads, and the wagon thing was only playing into it a bit. But as I said, his D2 seems pretty town to me (specifically, similar to my play in Kirby), so I think he's either town, or scum deliberately faking frustration to get sympathy/slack for bad reads. No, I don't really think Paperblade's behavior towards Manix was scummy, but I'm not saying it was town either--I just got a big null from it.

One thing that kind of unsettled me about the quoted post is that Bizz, you distance yourself from the Scorri powerwagon. You refer to people who jumped on that as "They", despite the fact that you were one of them. Feels like you're trying to make people forget you were on that train.

My read on Polydeuces just went downhill after noticing SO's #673, he busses Bearclaw and also criticizes Elie and Poly and defends Paperblade. But he gives a whole paragraph on Elie and only a few lines on Polydeuces, which seems like bussing maybe.

One thing I noticed from reading the end of Day 1 is that Boron was actually consistently criticizing scorri in her posts, including in #680 saying that scorri's vote gave her "bad memories of SF Drafters". Then again later she says she'd be fine with lynching either scorri or SB. However, after she voted Manix(/SB) she started saying SB looked better, essentially defending the slot while increasingly criticizing scorri. However, she never moved her vote, even as she progressively felt SB was getting townier and scorri was getting scummier.

Boron: who were you redirected to N1?

This presupposes Polydeuces as scum. While I may share that sentiment, I think it's bad practice to do this (in general).

I think I see how Boron could've been redirected with her claimed role, which reveals another role on the mafia side (hijacker, and I'm outing this because screw the mafia; I'm assuming she's telling the truth because I have no reason to disbelieve her). I have a theory on how Grassbridger could be telling the truth about his role, BUT I don't feel the need to theorycraft further, as it doesn't further my ability to catching scum. However, if Grassbridger is the role I'm thinking of, then why the hell did he target Shinori? (don't answer this unless you're about to be lynched; this is me thinking aloud, and I NEED to do this)

Roles aside, I am NOT getting a good feeling from Refa's latest antics. The No Lynch thing can go either way, but proposing to cut the day phase short, then going back on it is extremely scummy. The town's weapon is the day phase discussion, so why suggest touching that, especially with over half the phase to go?

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

Still want to lynch Polydeuces, but I'd rather be voting here.

Theoretical dayvig: Shoot Polydeuces; he's not helping.

[Refa]

Roles aside, I am NOT getting a good feeling from Refa's latest antics. The No Lynch thing can go either way, but proposing to cut the day phase short, then going back on it is extremely scummy. The town's weapon is the day phase discussion, so why suggest touching that, especially with over half the phase to go?

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

You're mislabeling my arguments, I didn't go back on anything. I proposed we masslynched Euklyd unless new information came in that proved otherwise. I'm pretty sure Weapons stating that his read on Euklyd was fake qualifies as such.

As for the town's weapon, considering where the discussion was going at the time, I honestly didn't feel like we'd get any new information that would change the lynch. Then...Weapons happened.

[Grassbridger]

Assuming that Grassbridger read wrong about the vig crumb, then any killing role would work for a third-party kill (that's usually SK). Now, if it's an intended SK with a fake claim from another role, that could be messy.

Uh. . .you presupposed yourself as town, so why is this even a point?

This presupposes Polydeuces as scum. While I may share that sentiment, I think it's bad practice to do this (in general).

I think I see how Boron could've been redirected with her claimed role, which reveals another role on the mafia side (hijacker, and I'm outing this because screw the mafia; I'm assuming she's telling the truth because I have no reason to disbelieve her). I have a theory on how Grassbridger could be telling the truth about his role, BUT I don't feel the need to theorycraft further, as it doesn't further my ability to catching scum. However, if Grassbridger is the role I'm thinking of, then why the hell did he target Shinori? (don't answer this unless you're about to be lynched; this is me thinking aloud, and I NEED to do this)

My targeting Shinori made sense and that's all I'll say about it for now.

Why are you assuming I read wrong about the vig crumb?

My point about Scorri presupposing herself as town in her argument is that she was trying to clear herself from others' POV, not just her own. I don't think that particular post used the presupposition that I was town.

I don't think I presupposed Poly as scum? Although rereading my post, I thought I did, then when I went back to try to explain it I noticed I'd misinterpreted my own sentence. What that actually says is that ESSBEE bussed Wallcrab and criticized Poly, not that Poly bussed Wallcrab (which would indeed be presupposing). But yeah confusingly worded as fuck and it even screwed me up on reread.

No, I don't think it's hijacker, I think it's plain redirector. (Hijacker targets a player and shifts their action; redirector targets a player and shifts actions targeting them, right?)

[Refa]

Also what I could've sworn the first time I saw this post it was like five quotes shorter, I really need to read more carefully.

You made this post while I was waiting for my mom to pick me up from work (and there's more than half the phase to burn, to boot). The fact that you're suggesting that the town stops discussion is seriously anti-town (like, I can't see why n00b town would even think this).

Never suggested that town should stop discussion. My claim was that since discussion was at a minimum anyways, we should go for the turbolynch.

The last vote on that wagon was Shinori, and look what he flipped. What you've mentioned isn't even a tell.

I seriously have no idea what your point is. I was refuting scorri's claim that a major counter wagon on her proved that she was town, and even mentioned the Shinori thing.

This is AFTER you suggested a turbowagon. The more I read of this, the less I like you.

I...don't get it?

THEN WHY DID YOU EVEN SUGGEST A TURBOWAGON?!

So that Euklyd would get votes while the majority of the players are awake.

[Paperblade]

I'm not sure why Refa is trying to suggest that scum wagoned scorri for town cred or w/e reason when he started the scorri wagon

[Refa]

I'm not sure why Refa is trying to suggest that scum wagoned scorri for town cred or w/e reason when he started the scorri wagon

I'm not saying that is necessarily the case, but rather I presented 3 scenarios.

1) scorri is town and the scum did indeed try to jump on her bandwagon.

2) scorri is scum and her buddies wagoned her for town cred, and like Eclipse said, perhaps they found SB's role more important than hers.

3) scorri is SK and thus none of the arguments claiming that she is town hold water.

Since there is a very real possibility that 2/3 are the case, I think it's folly to assume that scorri is instant town.

[eclipse]

My targeting Shinori made sense and that's all I'll say about it for now.

Why are you assuming I read wrong about the vig crumb?

My point about Scorri presupposing herself as town in her argument is that she was trying to clear herself from others' POV, not just her own. I don't think that particular post used the presupposition that I was town.

I don't think I presupposed Poly as scum? Although rereading my post, I thought I did, then when I went back to try to explain it I noticed I'd misinterpreted my own sentence. What that actually says is that ESSBEE bussed Wallcrab and criticized Poly, not that Poly bussed Wallcrab (which would indeed be presupposing). But yeah confusingly worded as fuck and it even screwed me up on reread.

No, I don't think it's hijacker, I think it's plain redirector. (Hijacker targets a player and shifts their action; redirector targets a player and shifts actions targeting them, right?)

I said not to answer that. ;/

Why are you assuming that you're correct about the crumb?

Back in D1, I think I had a little scuffle about how you were constantly saying that you were town; that is presupposing that you're town.

If it's something along the lines of "redirect everything from Shinori elsewhere", then short of shenanigans, the kill would've been redirected, too. If Boron was hijacked with the role I think she is, then it's possible that she's telling the truth about what happened on N1. I have my own theories as to why you were redirected despite the hijack, but it wanders deep into setup territory, and not the kind of argument that finds scum.

Also what I could've sworn the first time I saw this post it was like five quotes shorter, I really need to read more carefully.

Never suggested that town should stop discussion. My claim was that since discussion was at a minimum anyways, we should go for the turbolynch.

I seriously have no idea what your point is. I was refuting scorri's claim that a major counter wagon on her proved that she was town, and even mentioned the Shinori thing.

I...don't get it?

So that Euklyd would get votes while the majority of the players are awake.

A turbolynch, by nature, stops discussion for the day (read the rules). This is BAD for the town, especially with the amount of time left in the phase.

If you want to go by scorri's lynch, the last vote on it was Shinori, and look at what he flipped. If you want to talk wagons, then the choices are between me, you, Bizz, Paperblade, and Psych; Shinori, the final vote on the wagon, is dead - out of everyone, his vote is in the most controversial position. I think it's a pretty weak to go after her like that; also, the way you're doing it is really bothersome. You're suggesting that she's not clear, but not doing anything about it.

Vote staying put.

[Refa]

If you want to go by scorri's lynch, the last vote on it was Shinori, and look at what he flipped. If you want to talk wagons, then the choices are between me, you, Bizz, Paperblade, and Psych; Shinori, the final vote on the wagon, is dead - out of everyone, his vote is in the most controversial position. I think it's a pretty weak to go after her like that; also, the way you're doing it is really bothersome. You're suggesting that she's not clear, but not doing anything about it.

My point regarding Shinori's vote is that he was town and jumped on the bandwagon, which means that assuming that at least one person who jumped on it is scum is not necessarily true.

Regarding the bold, this is because this is all a response to scorri when she asked me why I put her at null. Why should I be doing something about one of my null reads when I have 2 scum reads that I'm more confident in?

[eclipse]

Because this game will never be in this state again. Someone will flip between now and D3, which means that your reads will be influenced by that.

[Refa]

To clarify for that last sentence, was. The other scumread besides Polydeuces was Euklyd, due to Weapons reaction test. I don't really know what to think of Weapons after that and he hasn't since given an explanation, so he's null for me atm.

[eclipse]

You're still holding on to a Euklyd scum read after Weapons retracted? Why?

[Refa]

Because this game will never be in this state again. Someone will flip between now and D3, which means that your reads will be influenced by that.

Still not seeing why I'd need to take action, or in fact what action you would expect me to take against scorri. Also I don't get what your point is regarding the flips between now and D3. Surely those will only help me when it comes to my null reads (who I am voting null because from MPOV, there is not enough information to decide one way or the other)?

[Refa]

You're still holding on to a Euklyd scum read after Weapons retracted? Why?

No, he's leaning town for me. Meant to put that in there.

[eclipse]

Still not seeing why I'd need to take action, or in fact what action you would expect me to take against scorri. Also I don't get what your point is regarding the flips between now and D3. Surely those will only help me when it comes to my null reads (who I am voting null because from MPOV, there is not enough information to decide one way or the other)?

You're prodding her without really pressuring her. It looks like you're setting up to drive a lynch, but you're not committed to it. Now, for some game theory. . .

For this to work, I'm going to grab the D1 lynch. Notice how Grassbridger voted at the last minute for SB? Assuming he is town, he couldn't have known that SB was mafia when doing that. (yes, Elieson, I acknowledge that you were the final vote, but I only need one example for this) If there was some daycop that said "Yes, SB is mafia, lynch him," then Grassbridger's switch wouldn't look as good - he'd be acting off of claimed information, as opposed to reads. Hindsight is easy to draw reads from; the unknown, not as much. By seeing the logic behind a conclusion, I can get a better sense of who's mafia and who's not. It's easier to fake reads with more information in the open, as well.

[Refa]

You're prodding her without really pressuring her. It looks like you're setting up to drive a lynch, but you're not committed to it. Now, for some game theory. . .

That's because I wouldn't support a lynch on her at this point. Not at least, until we get more reads/posts from her that FMPOV are scummy enough to do so.

For this to work, I'm going to grab the D1 lynch. Notice how Grassbridger voted at the last minute for SB? Assuming he is town, he couldn't have known that SB was mafia when doing that. (yes, Elieson, I acknowledge that you were the final vote, but I only need one example for this) If there was some daycop that said "Yes, SB is mafia, lynch him," then Grassbridger's switch wouldn't look as good - he'd be acting off of claimed information, as opposed to reads. Hindsight is easy to draw reads from; the unknown, not as much. By seeing the logic behind a conclusion, I can get a better sense of who's mafia and who's not. It's easier to fake reads with more information in the open, as well.

I don't really get how that links Grassbridger to mafia though. If he was scum, he wouldn't need to daycop SB. Are you suggesting that he is a 3rd party?

[eclipse]

That's because I wouldn't support a lynch on her at this point. Not at least, until we get more reads/posts from her that FMPOV are scummy enough to do so.

I don't really get how that links Grassbridger to mafia though. If he was scum, he wouldn't need to daycop SB. Are you suggesting that he is a 3rd party?

So why are you even pushing her?

Also, you managed to read that game theory post all wrong. Read it again.

[Refa]

So why are you even pushing her?

Like I said, it was a response to when she asked me why I put her in null. I'm not pushing her, I just gave my reasons for my course of actions when prompted.

Also, you managed to read that game theory post all wrong. Read it again.

mmk

I'm still not sure I understand, but here's my interpretation of your game theory past. A lot of players think Grassbridger is town because of his last minute switch. However, if there was a daycop that told him that SB was scum (can daycops do this? i thought they'd function identically to cops, but in day), then he would have no choice but to vote for SB because otherwise, it would reflect badly on him (should the daycop claim). Thus, his last minute switch is more out of necessity than any town intent. I have stuff to say regarding this, but first I want to make sure. Am I getting this right?

[Refa]

ugh, post, past, stoopid typoes