Healer Mafia - D6 ends on Dec. 15 at 8:00 PM HST

[Shinori]

So, where did all the conversation go?

It's been over a day since someone besides me or BBM has posted.

[eclipse]

PROTIP: I do NOT appreciate quiet topics, and have yelled at my past games for such issues.

[MRDRHAWK]

Well, it is exam time for most of the college crowd... so that's probably why activity's dried up now.

And besides... really, most of the info that we're going to have at this point is on the table.

[BBM]

Sorry, I had an exam in the afternoon and then some idiot randomly wandered on the train tracks (it wasn't even suicide; he was just that stupid) and got killed and delayed everything for like an hour, which put me late for other stuff I had to do.

Anyways, I was trying to think of why Manix might have been silenced, and these are the two possibilities that seem most likely to me:

1) Manix is scum and did it to himself for towncred. I've done this before and he can also vote in his PM, so I wouldn't put it past him.

2) Somebody didn't want him to out Voyeur reports.

3) Somebody was afraid of his scumhunting/reads/in-thread play

Looking at 2 more closely- the only person who hasn't actually proven their role is Poly. I feel like he'd be the only person with something to gain in that sense. I don't think 3 is likely because on D4, Manix spoke pretty much solely about Kirsche, at least as far as scumreads go. I'm not sure he was even scumreading anyone currently alive. That leaves 1 and 2. So I'm pretty confident that the silence points to at least one of Manix or Poly being scum, possibly both since 1 and 2 aren't mutually exclusive. But if they were both scumbuddies, then it would be more 1 than 2, since Manix could just BS reports.

I'm still inclined to stick with my gut on Poly being scum. I think that the only townie thing he's done all game is put that swingvote on Eury. But Vhaltz also put a swingvote on Eury (a swing doublevote, in fact) and then went to sleep, so it's entirely possible that the mafia team might have just decided to bus Eury to get a few of them towncred. Actually both Poly and Bizz voted Eury, and looking at it, Bizz's vote is more legit, as Poly's 180 could have been a #yolo bus on his part, while as I realized in my reread of Bizz, she was actually kind of consistently arguing against Eury.

Poly/Shinori, don't you guys have anything to say about what I said wrt the vig/drive?

[Refa]

I'm here. Might need to look into Poly, actually. I think I was just biased because he cleared me, that's like 564 points right there.

[Shinori]

What you stated WRT the driving and vig sounds logical. Let me get a bit more time to think about it as I'm not thinking straight at the moment.

[Shin]

Yo, you suckers should actually use your posts since you don't have like three of them. Considering not lynching is a sure fire way to lose and I don't really feel that there's much discussion going on, I'm actually inclined to think Manix is probably one of our remaining scum. I've looked through the ISO's, the constant aversion to vote or even read Eury day 1 as well as attempts to produce at least three other wagons.

##Vote: Manix

In the fairly unlikely event he flips town, I'll hold back on the vig shot. I have one post remaining, I can make an unvote/new vote if we really need to but there's not really much happening at this point. I have a feeling that Shinori's Manix's scumbuddy, but more on that post-lynch.

[BBM]

I wouldn't lynch Manix over Poly, because lynching people who can't defend themselves is lame. That was probably the intention if he is scum, but even in that case, he does still have a scumbuddy. FMPOV, lynching between Refa/Shinori/Poly has at worst a 1/3 chance at hitting scum and a 2/3 chance if Manix is town so that averages to like a 1/2 chance.

I definitely wouldn't lynch Shinori either way though. He still has the best interactions with flipped scum, in that Eury was directly pushing him as a counterwagon to herself, and for that matter was tunneling him for the majority of D1. And his proven role is just a weaker version of Watcher. Even if he's scum with more parts to his role, that part of his role would just be entirely superfluous. And he's proven it too, so yeah, I think that he's the least likely person to be scum after Shin.

[MRDRHAWK]

A Manix lynch right now would be ehhhh, but I'm still re-reading Shinori's ISO. I actually totally forgot up to now that he was the other D1 wagon, so I'm softening my stance on him as "oh, he's definitely scum".

That being said, I still don't like his lack of post-D1 content up until today, and to be fair if we're kicking around options the Eury counter-wagon could be him bussing early to catch a newbie scum off guard. I'd still lynch him over anyone else.

And I have no idea why you still think I haven't proven my role, BBM. As I've said several times, I scanned Refa last night and confirmed he was town. Are you thinking that I got driven or you safeguarded against me or something? Because my night results would have indicated whether or not that happened, which they didn't. As for the vig/drive bit, the vig seems really risky if we get to N5 due to potentially losing outright (unless Shin's confident in his read on Manix, who I suspect won't get lynched unless we can figure out anything that points to him being scummy), but idling the drive is fine.

[Refa]

I think BBM is town based on how he's treating this at the moment but I could be wrong. I'm thinking because I think I found out something.

Considering what you found out (let's assume it wasn't a mistake), how does that in any way implicate BBM? Like where's the relationship between me lying about my role actions and BBM's scumminess (haha, Google tried to correct that to chumminess)?

First off I don't think there are that many redirects in this game. There is no way there are that many redirects in this game and that they are all town sided.

There are two claimed redirectors and scorri's role which doesn't even qualify as such. I don't get how that qualifies as too many.

Gonna say that refa/poly is scum team. If BBM was scum I think he would have found some way to drop a vote on me since I'm already at 2 votes and it would only take 2 more to get me lynched, so I'm gonna assume he's town. I also think the manix/levy slot is town. Shin claimed vig and claimed a shot on scum.

Although I think I might be missing something.

I could do the exact same thing...Also Shin's Vig claim is literally inconsequential on his towniness, he got cleared by a flipped cop that's all that matters. There's no reason to think that he's lying (not that you implied this, js).

Well, you said this, which implies that you did it by yourself. It doesn't really matter because it doesn't show any extra knowledge or something you shouldn't have; it's just kind of weird.

I idled last night because I didn't want to mess up the redirects or give Poly the excuse of targeting the same person as me. In retrospect I maybe should have acted and had him claim first to see if I could catch him in a lie, but too late now I guess.

Yeah, SB doesn't deserve the credit because shutup.

With poly and manix voting me assuming two more scum remaining.

Either me and BBM are buddies or One of poly/manix is scum.

Cause if it's any other scenario then the two scum would probably quick hammer most likely.

Why couldn't me and BBM be scumbuddies FYPOV?

I don't like how you idled, but (rolespec time here), but I think a scum!aligned Safeguard would be really OP and kind of be redundant with the two other roles (not to mention it would totally screw over SK). So if I took you off the list, that leaves...Manix, Shinori, Polydeuces.

Yeah that was an error no I targeted poly and visited shin so his claim is true.

So in my eyes either Refa/poly is scum.

Or it's BBM/manix I think.

I don't get how it logically flows from me telling the truth to me and Poly are the scumteam. And why BBM/Manix? Especially since you said you were reading Manix's slot as town earlier.

If refa and poly are scum it makes sense for him to drive off of Poly. Then if anyone targeted poly they would be moved off of him.

Yeah I think refa and poly are scum, no way do we have this many redirecting roles.

##Vote: Poly

Considering I didn't know there was a vig at the time, I fail to see how targeting Poly would be a good move as scum. And your redirecting role comment is silly.

If Shin is vigging (whether that's because he chooses not to take my advice or because there's a mafia lynch), I think Refa should idle (if he's town anyways). Otherwise a kill could get redirected somewhere accidentally and that'd be bad. At this point I don't think the mafia have a Hooker, since nobody's been hooked by anyone other than Grass, and I also think that if they did have one, they would have hooked Venno rather than killed him, at least in the short term.

If Shin is vigging, he should just say who he's vigging in his last post for the day. This way there's no way I can claim to have accidentally redirect his vig if I was scum and can still redirect the Mafia kill (...possibly!).

##Vote: Manix

In the fairly unlikely event he flips town, I'll hold back on the vig shot. I have one post remaining, I can make an unvote/new vote if we really need to but there's not really much happening at this point. I have a feeling that Shinori's Manix's scumbuddy, but more on that post-lynch.

You should vig even if he flips town, because either way we'll lose if Mafia gets a successful kill (the numbers will be 4/2, unless kaoz counts).

I definitely wouldn't lynch Shinori either way though. He still has the best interactions with flipped scum, in that Eury was directly pushing him as a counterwagon to herself, and for that matter was tunneling him for the majority of D1. And his proven role is just a weaker version of Watcher. Even if he's scum with more parts to his role, that part of his role would just be entirely superfluous. And he's proven it too, so yeah, I think that he's the least likely person to be scum after Shin.

Considering that Vhaltz (flipped scum) enabled the Godfather lynch, claiming Shinori's interactions with Eury as a reason for his towniness is stupid (not to mention the fact that he didn't even vote Eury, citing preferences on flipped town). And determining if his role is superfluous is silly, because it's not particularly more helpful for town as well (at least the Watcher part, which is the only part to have been proven).

[Refa]

Man, I bet the people in the Graveyard are yelling at me for missing an obvious scumslip or something, so after I finish my Religion Final, Imma gonna ISO BBM, Shinori, Polydeuces, and Manix and also try to figure out Night actions (GET HYPE).

[BBM]

Poly, we have no proof except your own word to say that you actually scanned Refa. It's not very hard to make up Cop reports when you're mafia, especially with the ITP down. You know everybody's alignment anyways. See: Refa in Fakeclaim and PToE (wow, we should policy Refa when he claims Cop).

On the other hand, Shinori proved his role by knowing that somebody visited Elie on N3 before Elie said anything on D4. And the person who visited Elie wasn't mafia, so he'd have no way of guessing that. We know there's a Co-Driver after SB's flip, so we know that Refa's not lying either. I've proved my role by blocking people's actions. And Manix also proved Voyeur reports.

Shinori's role might not be amazing, but for town, even the Watcher part fulfills a unique function. For scum, it's strictly worse than a Watcher who actually learns who visited their target, and not just how many people visited their target. And if we're going to argue that scum might have two of the same role, then we might as well also argue that scum have two Godfathers, in which case Shin isn't clear either (actually he would be because Vig but you get the point). Shinori's Eury interactions aren't a be-all-end-all-he's-town-for-sure, but they're still definitely the best interactions with flipped scum of anybody else, so that coupled with his role make me pretty confident he's town.

Shin announcing exactly who his vig shot is allows you to drive it wherever you want if you're scum. If Shin is vigging, you should idle, FMPOV at least.

[BBM]

err, that last line should be, "if Shin is vigging, then he should definitely not announce his target, and you should idle, FMPOV at least"

[MRDRHAWK]

Poly, we have no proof except your own word to say that you actually scanned Refa. It's not very hard to make up Cop reports when you're mafia, especially with the ITP down. You know everybody's alignment anyways. See: Refa in Fakeclaim and PToE (wow, we should policy Refa when he claims Cop).

So then put Manix or someone on me to prove my scans during N5.

[BBM]

Nothing preventing you and Manix from being buddies. And if we don't lynch correctly we probably lose so yeah. And unlike Manix you're here to defend yourself.

Your Shinori suspicion says "he's the most likely to be lying about his role", not taking into account that he's proven his role. Also that killers haven't gotten hooked. Obviously, considering as he hasn't claimed targeting somebody who died that night yet. And even if he did, the mafia could just have the other person take the kill. You have three other points in #1373. The first and second one are really the same thing, him being all over the place, which is firstly kind of hypocritical of you to say after the Eury 180 near the end of D1. Secondly, him unvoting Kirsche before Kirsche got lynched and changing his mind repeatedly there doesn't even mean anything, because Shinori as mafia wouldn't know that Kirsche was the ITP. And then you talk about how he can fudge results, which he actually can't. It's very difficult to fake a Watcher claim. If he says that one person visited X and then two people claim to have visited them, then he's screwed. You're basically just guessing, which is bound to not work out sooner or later.

[Refa]

Poly, we have no proof except your own word to say that you actually scanned Refa. It's not very hard to make up Cop reports when you're mafia, especially with the ITP down. You know everybody's alignment anyways. See: Refa in Fakeclaim and PToE (wow, we should policy Refa when he claims Cop).

BTW, did I mention that I'm also cop

Shinori's role might not be amazing, but for town, even the Watcher part fulfills a unique function. For scum, it's strictly worse than a Watcher who actually learns who visited their target, and not just how many people visited their target. And if we're going to argue that scum might have two of the same role, then we might as well also argue that scum have two Godfathers, in which case Shin isn't clear either (actually he would be because Vig but you get the point). Shinori's Eury interactions aren't a be-all-end-all-he's-town-for-sure, but they're still definitely the best interactions with flipped scum of anybody else, so that coupled with his role make me pretty confident he's town.

Shin announcing exactly who his vig shot is allows you to drive it wherever you want if you're scum. If Shin is vigging, you should idle, FMPOV at least.

OK, fair enough on your point regarding Shinori's role. Eh, I don't see why you'd narrow down potential lynchees unless you're his scumbuddy, so I guess the scumteam would be either you and Shinori or Poly and Manix.

Also I guess that makes sense FYPOV but MPOV is better. Actually, I guess Shin shouldn't vig at all because if he and Mafia don't target the same person and I don't redirect the kill the numbers would be 1/1 (and Mafia could just target Shin lol). Sorry that was actually a horrible idea. :(

[BBM]

Also Eclipse, I don't think the phase end time in the topic title matches up with the phase end time posted in #1400. The former says that phase ends in ~28 hours, while the latter says that it ends 24 hours later than that.

[Refa]

Actually, Shinori could still be scumbuddies with Manix/Poly I guess. Well, I don't think Poly since he's been pretty clear that either Poly or I are scum, and has even voted Poly over me.

Wait, shouldn't Shin vig if there is a mislynch? Because town could lose either way and all.

[BBM]

It's 5/2 atm so if with a mislynch and mafia NK it'd only be like 3/2.

[Refa]

It's 5/2 atm so if with a mislynch and mafia NK it'd only be like 3/2.

I don't get how it's potential LYLO then. It would be potential MYLO, since if we didn't lynch and Shin vigged it would be 3/2.

[Refa]

Actually, I think kaoz doesn't count because he can't even vote, so town would still be endgamed. For all purposes, we should treat it as 6 people being alive.

[BBM]

Oh, I guess that's true. ugh

Okay then, if we take it to be 4/2, then Shin should probably Vig either way, in which case I would advocate Refa idling.

[Shinori]

I don't get how it's potential LYLO then. It would be potential MYLO, since if we didn't lynch and Shin vigged it would be 3/2.

Potential lylo means it's possible to lose if we don't lynch correctly I thought.

[Refa]

Potential lylo means it's possible to lose if we don't lynch correctly I thought.

Yeah, and MYLO is only if you mislynch. So if the numbers were 5/2, then town could not lynch at all and still not lose even if Shin vigs a townie.

[Shinori]

Wait potential lylo means its even possible for us to lose following a no-lynch right?