Tyne-Wear Mafia - Where Are They Now? Special Bonus 2016 Update

[Shin]

##Triplevote: Marth

President is best role.

I really dislike Beli's latest content. I see no commitment to anything at all. Literally all of the last post was waffle which results in "I have no real reads". I still dislike the "well, better than no lynch logic". It looks pretty clear Marth's scummy, but I don't want to push him to hammer until Prims has a chance to say something.

##Vote: Belisarius

Beli, who do you think is scum, and why? It's entirely possible all three major wagons D1 were town, what makes you say that?

[Prims]

Going with a listpost for this because I've gone most of the game without having clear stances on anybody at all really. Leaving out Blitz/Bluedoom slots since I buy into town!Blitz catching scum!Marf.

6. Weapons

- Already discussed why the massclaim request was town. Content is generally okay and he looks totally unconcerned with how people perceive him which makes me feel good about him. Paper vote, while not too strong contextually, is a point in his favor.

Conclusion: leaning town

14. Rapier

- ED1 gives me a meta town read as iirc Rapier is a go-getter as town but a background player as scum. Posts like this show he wants to take charge and get town's shit together. Despite his low amount of reads and the fact I generally haven't agreed with his early cases (Weapons) he's been aggressive about them in a townie manner imo. Said cases themselves seem more misguided than fabricated as well and I actually do see where he's coming from with his later ones (Shin, Poly).

- if Weapons wants me to vote him then I need a better case than "I'm on mobile and can't explain this also your townread is wrong" cuz I am just not seeing it

Conclusion: leaning town

18. Refa

- I haven't had any issues with Refa's content all game and it looks like he's inquiring into people's posts and deriving reads from them and nothing jumps out as scum intent so yeah I'm gonna have to go with motivated town!Refa on this one.

Conclusion: leaning town

7. FFM

- I didn't like FFM's early day 1 but I have a gut town read from the rest of it + Marf's comment on him doesn't seem like a scum/scum interaction so yeah fuck my life. Otherwise post more pls.

Conclusion: null, townier end

1. Kirsche

- re: #270: Why did you consider Juliette's posts good? I mean they're hardly bad or anything but she didn't bring very much new to the table; worried this is subtle buddying.

- The comment about me here is weird since I was not at the time pushing anybody you perceived as bad!town.

Conclusion: null

17. Reinfleche/Juliette

- Apparently they're in this game. Biggest issue is that Juliette's Shin read is phrased in a way that makes me think she decided to support a Shin lynch based on him having a lot of votes, then found reasons to support it afterwards. Otherwise IDK. Contribute more so I can get a better read!

Conclusion: null

16. scorri

- Hasn't existed and her response to Weapons' pressure just reads like a scorri post. Kind of sad that this has been her typical meta lately.

- Main question I have for her is why she said bear of all people was her buddy during the refuge in audacity post, that jumped out to me as weird even if it was facetious, unless this is some weird community joke I'm not aware of or a context thing I missed.

Conclusion: *shrug*

19. The Bear

- 19. The Bear

Conclusion: pls

8. Belisarius

- #190 still bugs me. If Belisarius doesn't think any of the people jumping on Weapons are scummy then why does the wagon make him uncomfortable? Seems like caution for the sake of caution, eg not what a townie would actually think.

- Otherwise just doesn't exist enough, so post more etc.

Conclusion: null

15. Strawman

- My biggest issue with Strawman is that he's THERE but I just can't remember what his opinions are. It's like he's not actually that commited to the game. I think it's because he will justify his votes with concise sentences but then not really talk about them or question his scumreads, lasting until he finds a new player to vote. His D2 has been better though and there were a couple posts of his I thought were very tonally town (mostly this) so I'm still thinking this one over.

- Strawman, what made you go from being fine with Rapier here to scumreading him here? Also, why vote SB here?

Conclusion: null but I have my eye on you

2. Candeloro

- Poly dislikes both BBM and I here, but his suspicion on BBM is never elaborated on and totally dropped here, which reads like a disconnect in thought process. Poly, was BBM ever significantly scummy to you? Why were you "not keen on lynching" him and me?

- One thing I've noticed about Poly this game is that he constantly delays his reads and does a very poor job of following up. Rapier's case here does a pretty good job of summing up my thoughts.

Conclusion: leaning scum

9. Shin

- Early on I felt Shin's Rapier vote was justified by an excuse; you can hardly say Rapier is "tunneling" halfway into D1 and it's just a buzzword here that in context means "Rapier is scummy for voting Weapons", but Shin wasn't clear enough why Rapier's vote on Weapons had actual scum intent. His justification was alright on the surface but why would Rapier have a large swath of reads when it's, again, early into D1?

- Since then he spent most of his time responding to people while riding out the Randa wagon and I felt that a lot of his thoughts don't really go anywhere (this post). Not strongly scumreading him but not impressed and could see it.

Conclusion: leaning scum

3. SB

- SB's late D1 is coasty as fuck in that he didn't have any opinions where it mattered. He said he was interested in Paper but gave an excuse not to vote Paper when it actually mattered, he said he could switch his vote at deadline but, again, didn't when it actually mattered, etc. The result is him being absolved of all responsibility from the lynch and Paper not becoming a viable wagon.

- It's also notable that SB goes from voting Randa for pushing for a turbolynch to voting Cam when Cam had no votes. How do you even justify this? Of course Cam wasn't actually a likely lynch target, but why make a symbolic vote in that case when consolidation was important?

Conclusion: scummy

4. CamTech

- Paper makes good points on why Cam is scummy but never actually pushes him (here, here, , which is suspect. Especially fishy is when he thinks Cam has more scum intent than SB but votes SB anyway (???).

- Cam's actual content is sparse and he dismissed the Paper wagon on policy without actually providing a read on Paper. Before his Randa vote there was a lot of smaller posts but the questions never lead up to anything.

Conclusion: scummy

Frustratingly a lot of the people I find more suspicious here don't really make sense as buddies but SB/Cam/Poly/Shin seems like a good place to look into for now. Would probably be voting SB as is.

@Vig: please shoot somebody like Cam, bear or scorri tonight (ideally Cam), lurkers are bad and also not good. If you don't exist and Paper was a SK kill then I am going to cry.

[Strawman]

@Prims: With Rapier vote I was trying to see if certain people would jump on either him or myself because I was getting weird vibes from the back and forth between he and Shin and people tended to find Shin scummy from the interaction whereas I was reading Shin town.However, it resulted in nothing because I suck at getting reactions out of people with my votes.

With my vote for SB, the below is the short answer, the post where I said my lynch order on the three wagons.

SB>Randa>Shin

Null on SB, more town than null on Randa, town read on Shin

Then it was getting closer to phase end and there were just a few of us active and my vote on Rapier was doing nothing as explained above and the other two options were town imo.

[MRDRHAWK]

Honestly Prims I'm still having personal issues that are screwing with my motivation right now

I'm trying to do stuff but it's coming off as super weak and idk

[Strawman]

And I guess for clarification I never stopped finding Rapier town and wasn't trying to seriously put a lynch on him either.

[charlie_]

I backed off Randa because I didn't realize the turbolynch thing was a joke at first and then after rereading some of the things he posted made me feel like he was townier than I'd thought. I didn't seriously I expect Cam to get lynched I just put my vote on the dude I thought was scummiest at the time.

If deadline didn't happen early I would've been there to vote Paper (I even went to sleep early so I wouldn't miss phase end); the main thing holding me back was how I was super sure he was scum in Big NOCers until he actually got his shit together and started posting and I wasn't sure if that was going to happen considering he promised actual content by that point. Since it didn't happen, I was more suspicious of him overnight and if he hadn't died I would've been pushing him hard today.

The Paper kill was probably a vig considering this is a 20p game and if we had a dayvig Marth would be dead by now.

[Zkirsche]

Gut says scum counterwagoned.

So I looked into this and the party most suspect of this seems to be SB. He's completely forgotten about Shin in recent past despite having him as a top scumread for much of D1. Other good candidates for this include Poly who I'm also scumreading.

We should lynch Shin so I have confirmation on these AMAZING associative reads. A Paper/SB/Shin/Poly/Marth scumteam isn't even impossible and maybe I can just throw Cam in there as SK, which is also possible! Game solved? Seriously though, SB should talk about Shin and explain why Cam was scummier than him. I don't think there's much to continue on with our previous discussion.

I feel like a lot of SB's posts have been rather defensive lately too. Consider his Strawman interactions, it seems like he's doing everything in his power to shoot down anything that could even slightly incriminate him. I feel like he's overjustifying why paper wouldn't bus him.

The Paper kill was probably a vig considering this is a 20p game and if we had a dayvig Marth would be dead by now.

Why is there definitely a vig variant in a 20p game?

Why did you consider Juliette's posts good?

Effort, mostly. Not a very strong read which is why she's null for me.

I was not at the time pushing anybody you perceived as bad!town.

True, but you were pushing someone you perceived to be bad!town and perceiving the motive behind that has little to do with me finding Randa scummy or not.

[charlie_]

I've been defending myself because there's barely anything else to do with the guilty ongoing.

I stopped talking about Shin because I kind of forgot why I was scumreading him (partly down to him not posting that much as the day went on) and my rereads tended to focus on other people, so I haven't been paying as much attention to him recently. I've already said why Cam was scummy yesterday and associations with Paper I pointed out earlier to day just add to that.

The vig probably exists because I don't see town not having any killing power to speed things up in a game this large.

[Zkirsche]

Well if you're finding yourself with not much to do with this game, why don't you spend that time rereading Shin!

I don't like how when you froget why someone's scummy, the immediate thing you do is drop the read rather than analyse that person further.

Also, couldn't SK speed up the game?

[Prims]

yeah so instead of playing coy I'm going to point out that there has to be a third kill as an attempt was made on my life last night.

Sb's response satisfies me, actually. Cam is my main read at this point so hopefully he pops up dead overnight.

[Prims]

also I'm fine with hammering Bluedoom now since I can't imagine there being much more to discuss unless bear or scorri pop up.

[MRDRHAWK]

okay so there's a vig/SK/maf kill setup. joy.

I can only assume SK went for Prims, maf went for BBM and vig shot Paper

hmmm

will need to reread Cam tbh

[Prims]

a bulletproof one, who is also immune to lynches, and has a town wincon

lol @ whoever shot me btw

[Refa]

##Unvote

Hold on, I just stopped playing FE and would like to make AMAZING POST before anyone hammers.

[CT075]

man i mentioned that i would be out today and i'm coming off of an 8-hour car ride and mafia is not something i want to think about right now ugh

[CT075]

other than the obvious marth lynch

shin, what happened to your rapier suspicion? You go really hard on him then suddenly drop it for Randa

Blitz, what was this "reaction test" for SB? What were you expecting him to do (and what would it have meant), what did he actually do?

[CT075]

what is marth at

L-2?

[Randa]

ded

These should be right unless I dun goofed. With 17 alive it takes 9 to hammer.

Marth: Blitz, SB, Prims, Weapons, Poly, (L-4)

Beli: Marth, Shin

Cam: Kirsche

ded

[Refa]

What stops Paper from just casing someone else? Even if he went to bus Cam, there was very little support for it and it's unlikely it would lead anywhere.

Also Paper calling out the Randa wagon just looked like he was trying to make himself look better imo: scum!Paper has trouble bullshitting cases on people he knows are town, so defending them like that is way easier for him to be genuine. I'm not saying this makes Shin scum but I don't agree with your line of thought there.

People would call him out for it and he'd look bad? I mean considering Cam is traveling and not in a position to post, Paper couldn't even be like "yeah, Cam's recent posts make me feel better so I'm going to jump onto a townie's wagon instead" if Cam was his scumbuddy.

Fair enough on your second point, though.

Oh uh... what?

Yeah I targeted BBM but I was redirected to him and I most certainly wasn't responsible for the kill. Claiming JoaT btw, and I used my rolecop shot last night.

anyway, ##Vote: Belisarius for the awful Randa vote and Randa focus from last phase.

Basically sheeping what everyone else said about Marthipan's claim (specifically why would he rolecop a townread). What bothers me personally is that he didn't say who he originally targeted until he was prodded (kind of an important detail to miss). Also his Belisarius case is pretty hypocritical considering Marthipan did basically the same thing last phase and never expands on why Beli's vote is particularly worse than his.

I dunno, I can't why Blitz would lie in a situation like this. A one for one trade is awful from a mafia perspective. This sounds way too stupid for FFM to be trying to protect his scumbuddy. I also feel if he were scum, he'd have known about the redirect and sat quietly on it. That's assuming that it was a scum redirect. Marth's explanation seems reasonable enough, but I'll need to have a look over past content. I'm not too sure about the Belisarius vote, what made their vote so much worse than anyone else's?

I don't get where you're coming from WRT the bolded statement. Please explain.

[CT075]

wait wait wait what

how did you go from marth's explanation looks good to marth is scum?

seriously not liking shin

[FrostyFireMage]

btw since somebody was complaining about my Paper vote. I should point out that I genuinely did find Paper scummy and mentioned why in the same post - getting him to talk was just a bonus since it'd make my read on him more clear.

Prim's vote on Paper last phase makes him look townier in my book.

I am actually scum reading FFM, because of how Marth pointed out FFM in

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3254455

which looks like perfect scum association (and read FFM's reply to it in http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3254530 which is just plain weird)

It was an insult and I took offence, clearly. You're reading too far into this.

nah, FFM didn't say screw you, he wanted people to think he said screw you (if he said screw you, there should have been something around it)

Uh, I'm pretty sure I knew what I meant.

Oh uh... what?

Yeah I targeted BBM but I was redirected to him and I most certainly wasn't responsible for the kill. Claiming JoaT btw, and I used my rolecop shot last night.

Also Blitz I thought your Weapons vote was forced because I gelt like you couldn't make up any better case so you went for the easier one to make it look like you had content. ofc that read's out of the window, because you're town based off of the tracker claim.

anyway, ##Vote: Belisarius for the awful Randa vote and Randa focus from last phase.

Also can you guys believe it? DA BEAR didn't even lay down a vote last phase, wtf?

Gonna get up some content in a bit.

If Beli was scum I'm sure he would want Randa to get hammered instead of unvoting. I think this vote is pretty poor and it feels like he's trying to get the heat off him by mentioning Bear. I would've expected a more angry response if he was actually town, too.

Shin makes good points on the idea that if Marth is scum, then Frosty's "defense" of him makes him seem townier. I still wanna reread Shin's ISO again, but I don't think I'd lynch him anytime soon.

I'm sorry but the overall snarkiness towards me is really killing my drive to participate. 3:

Marth is really looking scummy right now, meanwhile Beli looks townier due to Marth's vote b/c scum outing scum is stoopid. If Marth does indeed flip scum Blitz will get hella sweet brownie points too.

Just how close is Marth to hammer? Don't wanna end the phase early just in case something else comes up.

[Da Bear]

I've read up and ISO'd a few people (almost all of whom I think are town so rage)

The main scumreads I'm getting are Shin (mainly because of inconsistencies, like the one Cam just recently pointed out) and FFM (I'm having trouble explaining this one... really just gut so idk). Also Marth but that's pretty much a given.

Other than that I'm townreading like 2/3 of the game and null/haven't read enough of the others.

Just how close is Marth to hammer? Don't wanna end the phase early just in case something else comes up.

This is the mindset most of the game has and I feel like it's dumb because no one's really going to effort much when we already have the lynch decided.

[FrostyFireMage]

This is the mindset most of the game has and I feel like it's dumb because no one's really going to effort much when we already have the lynch decided.

Then why haven't you voted? :I

[Da Bear]

Then why haven't you voted? :I

Don't want to break my streak of not voting.

Also I forgot so

##Vote: Marth

[FrostyFireMage]

##Vote: Marth

No use postponing it, I guess.