Ice Dragon Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, VincentASM said: I forgot the very first score, but I *think* Tharja was winning 2:1 so I assume she has double the fans. No idea about how the scores have been fluctuating since I was gone for most of the day. Linde is doing OK though. Assuming Tharja's supporters are being smart about their use of flags, I'm expecting Tharja's score to break out of the yo-yo around midday tomorrow. 2 minutes ago, Hawk King said: I realize all of this. But if the smaller team never lets the larger team get the 3x bonus then people on the larger team won't use their flags, and potentially opt to save them for the next round. This involves both teams holding onto their flags, and there's almost no reason for the underdog team to hold off on using flags so long as they have the bonus. As long as the favorite team doesn't grossly outnumber the underdog team, the underdog team will eventually overtake the favorite team and give them a chance to spend flags, and the closer the match, the more that will happen. Pulling a last minute win requires coordinating a large portion of the underdog team to "trick" the favorite team into thinking that their lead is safe, and that's simply impossible (due to how large numbers work and the lack of a means to coordinate enough people to produce a significant shift). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 40 minutes ago, Vaximillian said: Into Sharena and Oboro making out, are you? Sure. Someone should let the fan art commence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolce Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Forgot to pop in last night when this started but for those on Team Leo! My ID is 4087758318 and my current lead is Ephraim. (I only remembered to post this after noticing one of my friends shared a Level 1 Laslow which was basically useless in the voting gauntlet fight, tbh.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk King Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said: This involves both teams holding onto their flags, and there's almost no reason for the underdog team to hold off on using flags so long as they have the bonus. As long as the favorite team doesn't grossly outnumber the underdog team, the underdog team will eventually overtake the favorite team and give them a chance to spend flags, and the closer the match, the more that will happen. Pulling a last minute win requires coordinating a large portion of the underdog team to "trick" the favorite team into thinking that their lead is safe, and that's simply impossible (due to how large numbers work and the lack of a means to coordinate enough people to produce a significant shift). If the underdog team only uses say 50 flags at a time instead of 200 they can catch up without springing past the leading team. Then they need to be patient and hold on to 400 flags for 2 fights in the final hour. Obviously this would take way too much coordination to ever happen. I was just pointing out a possibility in which it could happen. If the favorite team in the final round has a 4:1 ratio like the first 2 gauntlets, that would make an upset basically impossible no matter how much coordination existed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Hawk King said: Obviously this would take way too much coordination to ever happen. I was just pointing out a possibility in which it could happen. At the thermodynamic limit, which a group of people this large is getting pretty close to in terms of the behavior we are measuring, any possibility that isn't the average expected behavior has a 0% probability of happening. Slim chances become too slim to matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 There's also the issues that trying to coordinate something this large is pretty much impossible to conceal, so Tharja's followers could respond by not pushing past the threshold (if we're assuming Linde's group can possibly be this coordinated, we have to also entertain the possibility that Tharja's also will). If Linde's followers never get that x3 bonus back to attempt their upset, they're pretty much boned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk King Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi said: There's also the issues that trying to coordinate something this large is pretty much impossible to conceal, so Tharja's followers could respond by not pushing past the threshold (if we're assuming Linde's group can possibly be this coordinated, we have to also entertain the possibility that Tharja's also will). If Linde's followers never get that x3 bonus back to attempt their upset, they're pretty much boned. LOL, yeah. This is also a possibility. It all boils down to the 3x bonus being an incredibly stupid idea. All it will do is artificially make the blow-outs a little bit "closer". And the actually close match-ups will become coin flips. Totally better than before. Alright, I'm done complaining about how much I hate this gauntlet. Instead, I'm just going to be glad about the ~8,000 feathers I will be getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Hawk King said: All it will do is artificially make the blow-outs a little bit "closer". And the actually close match-ups will become coin flips. Totally better than before. It adds excitement for the first 24-36 hours without significantly affecting the outcome, which I don't mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Leo: 723,983,547 Henry: 714,707,867 No one has the multiplier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Hawk King said: LOL, yeah. This is also a possibility. It all boils down to the 3x bonus being an incredibly stupid idea. All it will do is artificially make the blow-outs a little bit "closer". And the actually close match-ups will become coin flips. Totally better than before. Alright, I'm done complaining about how much I hate this gauntlet. Instead, I'm just going to be glad about the ~8,000 feathers I will be getting. Out of curiosity which team are you going to be in if you lose? Edited May 12, 2017 by Solunar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteZer0Nova Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Robin still has the lead over Merric and it's been 3 turns already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk King Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solunar said: Out of curiosity which team are you going to be in if you lose? Well, I have Tharja, Robin, Henry, and Merric (all 4*) so one of them. Preferably an underdog, but if Henry and Merric both lose, I will probably go with whoever had the lower total score in round 1 between Robin and Tharja. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Ratio for Julia and Sanaki based on the past two tied rounds: Julia: 1,014,605,499 -> 1,051,595,827 Sanaki: 988,898,450 -> 1,020,671,116 Julia to Sanaki is about 37 to 32 Pretty close match, but Will Go all out to get Julia to Win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniperGYS Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 hours ago, TheTuckingFypo said: If you want... I could add you guys... 9243988950 Send a request! Right now my Oboro is my main character, but which could be better for this gautlet? I also can use my Takumi, Linde, Nino, Michalis. Who can be more helpfull in this mage battle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immatx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Solunar said: Ratio for Julia and Sanaki based on the past two tied rounds: Julia: 1,014,605,499 -> 1,051,595,827 Sanaki: 988,898,450 -> 1,020,671,116 Julia to Sanaki is about 37 to 32 Pretty close match, but Will Go all out to get Julia to Win! Nice, hope that holds true. All in for our glorious goddess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, immatx said: Nice, hope that holds true. All in for our glorious goddess Yeah, I'll do another analysis after the hour ends to make sure it's consistent. Of course this assumes nobody used flags during these past battles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruruo Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 hours ago, ArCAWnite said: I don't even have a favorite character.... I did just caws ... caws you went for the crowest cawracter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anime27Arts Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 hours ago, ArCAWnite said: Joined team Henry becaws of the same reason^ >Level one Henry >Level 40 Jeorge #Winning Level 40 Oboro wasn't enough for you though. 2 hours ago, Vaximillian said: Into Sharena and Oboro making out, are you? 1 hour ago, Astellius said: Sure. Someone should let the fan art commence! Things suddenly got weird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
escotanner Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Oh crap, Merric and Robin are about neck and neck. This feels like Chrom and Ephraim...in a way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 (edited) So, friends of Team Merric, is there anyone in particular you guys want me to put for my team lead? The characters to choose from have their native skills unless otherwise specified. Reinhardt is out right now: Reinhardt (Death Blow 3, Reposition, Fortify Cavalry) Azura (Escape Route 2, Hone Atk 3, Glimmer) Ike (Reposition, Threaten Spd 2, can have either Aether or Luna) Cherche (Brave Axe, Death Blow 3, Drag Back (that's the B-slot skill, not the assist), Draconic Aura) Those are the most useful and decked out ones. I have a Rebecca with a Brave Bow that I could put up, if people are especially needing the colorless, I could potentially grind up some SP to put a skill on her. Edit: 6 minutes ago, Anime27Arts said: Things suddenly got weird Things were already weird! Edited May 12, 2017 by Astellius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vaximillian Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 (edited) Julia vs. Sanaki, ladies and gentlemen: Edited May 12, 2017 by Vaximillian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzard of soz Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Anime27Arts said: Things suddenly got weird Oboro x Sharena OTCP (one true crack pairing) ehh well i'm probably not gonna be supporting Robin much today. had an appointment and now company's coming in like 20 minutes. hold the fort for me, fellow tacticians~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Anime27Arts said: Level 40 Oboro wasn't enough for you though. I.... I........ I deserve this :( Could you ever find it in your heart to forgive me? ;-; It hurts me to see me mad at myself! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Leo: 753,622,483 Henry: 732,482,996 Still no multiplier in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vaximillian said: Julia vs. Sanaki, ladies and gentlemen: Hide contents Haha, that must've been fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.