Voting Gauntlet: Choose Your Legends!

[Flying Shogi]

Does anyone know what determines which heroes(besides those that fought with you) in the same army you get once you get to the screen with a bunch of heroes that shows the amount of flags you've committed? It seems like you get the same heroes if you choose to commit the same number of flags each time.  

[Othin]

11 minutes ago, Poimagic said:

The way the scores are going, it looks like Camilla and Hector are moving on. And that would not be happy for both Ike and Lyn supporters

The prediction tracker currently has Camilla and Ike expected to move on. It's certainly not perfect and has been having to adjust to changes, but it's a lot more informative than just looking at the current scores. The current scores can be very misleading in ways the tracker deals with well.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U6g9SomUR-P0bbSb9rIC1f604SiCrD1E2MkD03i1fzc/htmlview#

[Arcanite]

21 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

Rezzy isn't even on Team Lyn to begin with though.

WHAT!?

I guess I must have tooootally missed that! Or maybe it like, slipped my mind? 

Hm I should be here more

[JJ48]

What in the world happened?!  Just this evening Lyn had a pretty comfortable lead, and now I log on to find her nearly a billion points behind!

Come on, guys!  We can't let that psychotic cow win!

[Poimagic]

3 minutes ago, Othin said:

The prediction tracker currently has Camilla and Ike expected to move on. It's certainly not perfect and has been having to adjust to changes, but it's a lot more informative than just looking at the current scores. The current scores can be very misleading in ways the tracker deals with well.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U6g9SomUR-P0bbSb9rIC1f604SiCrD1E2MkD03i1fzc/htmlview#

Thanks for telling me that. But if Camilla beats Lyn, then I'm blaming the multiplier system. Lyn was in the lead and got behind because of said multiplier. They really need to just remove it entirely.

[JJ48]

7 minutes ago, Othin said:

The prediction tracker currently has Camilla and Ike expected to move on. It's certainly not perfect and has been having to adjust to changes, but it's a lot more informative than just looking at the current scores. The current scores can be very misleading in ways the tracker deals with well.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U6g9SomUR-P0bbSb9rIC1f604SiCrD1E2MkD03i1fzc/htmlview#

I don't know...the margin it predicts her winning by looks pretty small.  I don't think Camilla's win can really be declared with any sort of confidence yet.

[Rafiel's Aria]

14 minutes ago, Infinite Dreams said:

Awesome, thanks!  Nice to see more 5* Laslows.  I already have the colour quests done, so no need to switch.   I just finished leveling up my bow Lyn, so I think I'll set her as my rep soon and keep her on as my rep when I go to team Lyn in the finals.

Aww, shoot, I missed the Hector multiplier cause I was at the grocery store.  I'll have to pay attention to the next ones.  I only have 800 flags left to use, so if there's 1 or 2 more that'll be perfect!  

I love Laslow. :3 (I actually think I just got your Laslow in my last battle. He cleared the entire map by himself.) No regrets promoting him whatsoever. I'll probably be jumping to team Lyn as well once this is over. ^^ Dunno' who I'll switch my lead to... 

I think we're projected to get one more at least if the numbers keep up with the current trend. 

[Othin]

Just now, JJ48 said:

I don't know...the margin it predicts her winning by looks pretty small.  I don't think Camilla's win can really be declared with any sort of confidence yet.

Yeah, as I said, it's not at all definite. It's just where things currently seem to be headed. But I don't think there's been much change in the predicted trajectory for that match in several hours, so Camilla's expected slight lead at the end seems fairly resilient. (Meanwhile Hector vs Ike has been shifting around a lot because Hector keeps overperforming his multipliers, but so far all the different patterns I've noticed have ended in Ike's favor.)

[Rukina]

Despite switching to Ike after Lucina was defeated I'm sort of hoping Hector will win this round.

[Lemmy]

In general you shouldn't worry about that speadsheet until there are around 12 hours left.

That's assuming your team can be coordinated, and there's some evidence of that.

[SoulWeaver]

6 hours ago, Alkaid said:

Also, if anybody on team Camilla would like more friends, feel free to add me.

If you're still serious about that I'm taking you up on it, but you'll have to add me because I don't have internet access on my iPod until tomorrow. 4512744310, name is Arilon with Roy as lead, but I can change it for the Gauntlet if you want, let me know if there's someone you're trying to have access to and I'll see if I have them.

3 hours ago, Rezzy said:

Why does every random person seem to have their lead set as Red?  I don't want to beat a dead horse, but it becomes more absurd the longer this streak goes.  If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all.

BECAUSE ROY MUST HAVE VENGEANCE

CHOKE ON IT

CHOKE ON OUR VENGEANCE

HOW DOES IT TASTE?!

No Officer, I swear I'm not salty at all, all this white stuff is…powdered marble? Yeah, it's powdered marble

41 minutes ago, JJ48 said:

Come on, guys!  We can't let that psychotic cow win!

To be fair, she's technically more of a psychotic Mama Bear than a psychotic cow.

Edited September 3, 2017 by SoulWeaver

[SniperGYS]

When is Lyn going to have a multiplier??? She has a big different since hours ago and I hasn't see a multiplier in the whole day (but I need to admit I hasn't been able to play a lot) . C'mon game, we need it :( !

Also... Yeah! Too much red!!  have lost some fights because of getting only reds, I even switched to my Amelia to counter the blue spam from "enemy" side, because I have only get red allies

[Thane]

Is the darkest timeline takng a turn for the darker?

[LuxSpes]

8 minutes ago, SniperGYS said:

When is Lyn going to have a multiplier??? She has a big different since hours ago and I hasn't see a multiplier in the whole day (but I need to admit I hasn't been able to play a lot) . C'mon game, we need it :( !

Also... Yeah! Too much red!!  have lost some fights because of getting only reds, I even switched to my Amelia to counter the blue spam from "enemy" side, because I have only get red allies

If she's not in multiplier territory and Camilla isn't gaining on Lyn, there's no way Lyn will get a multiplier. If Camilla is gaining on Lyn then IIRC she'd need to have a 10% lead to give Lyn a multiplier.

[Truthblade]

Strange, I don't think I have been having this problem of entirely red teams. My rotations have normally been Brave Roy, Azura, and Palla (mostly the latter). I have been running Ephraim as my lead though. 

[bethany81707]

After a few more trials, I think the Sharena from Vax was a fluke. Though how it happened raises further questions...

[Othin]

23 minutes ago, SniperGYS said:

When is Lyn going to have a multiplier??? She has a big different since hours ago and I hasn't see a multiplier in the whole day (but I need to admit I hasn't been able to play a lot) . C'mon game, we need it :( !

Also... Yeah! Too much red!!  have lost some fights because of getting only reds, I even switched to my Amelia to counter the blue spam from "enemy" side, because I have only get red allies

Lyn is not expected to get another multiplier this round. She'd only have a shot at it at a time when Camilla's multiplier overshoots, and that was only feasible early on.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U6g9SomUR-P0bbSb9rIC1f604SiCrD1E2MkD03i1fzc/htmlview#

[DehNutCase]

1 hour ago, Poimagic said:

Thanks for telling me that. But if Camilla beats Lyn, then I'm blaming the multiplier system. Lyn was in the lead and got behind because of said multiplier. They really need to just remove it entirely.

Bear in mind people deliberately sandbag when they're behind to get more multipler boni. Even if Camilla and Lyn were evenly matched---within 1% of each other---the team 1% lower would just collectively decide to put less effort in order to grab more points.

This is also an option for the winning team, of course, but usually you have more flags than multiplier rounds, so the winning team is under more pressure to spend the flags asap because, while the losing team can lose 2 rounds of no multiplier and still get more total score due to using flags during a multiplier round, the winning team isn't going to feel comfortable after betting on a seemingly unlikely multiplier round.

[NekoKnight]

49 minutes ago, SoulWeaver said:

To be fair, she's technically more of a psychotic Mama Bear than a psychotic cow.

The devs literally compared her to a cow. Those horns and udders don't lie.

[Ice Dragon]

15 minutes ago, Othin said:

Lyn is not expected to get another multiplier this round. She'd only have a shot at it at a time when Camilla's multiplier overshoots, and that was only feasible early on.

If the exact same number of players use the exact same number of flags during the next Team Camilla multiplier, they stand a reasonable chance of giving Team Lyn a multiplier. The forecast tracker uses information from past multipliers to predict future multipliers, and early multipliers generally underperform compared to late multipliers due to their low value.

If Team Camilla fails to give Team Lyn a multiplier after her next multiplier, Team Lyn has more than enough members to make an end-of-round rally for a win.

If Team Camiilla does give Team Lyn a multiplier, all bets are off since it depends entirely on how many points a Team Lyn multiplier earns. Team Camilla could either put the score deep into Team Camilla territory, which would make a comeback very difficult for Team Lyn or Team Camilla could put the score nearly even, which would be a guaranteed Team Lyn win.

Also, because there are over 20 hours remaining in this round, any slowing down or speeding up of point acquisition can easily move the next Team Camilla multiplier forward or backwards by a few hours, which makes things very hard to predict. For example, you'll notice that there's a pretty well-defined kink in the graph right where Lyn took the lead after the previous Team Camilla multiplier where score acquisition is noticeably faster when Team Lyn is behind in points and noticeably slower when Team Lyn is ahead in points. That much fluctuation could very easily shift the timing of the next Team Camilla multiplier.

[Ae†her]

I wish I planned using my flags better, all the better multipliers for team Hector came later. I used them on the first one onwards, still in top 2000s, but it sucks missing out on those 400 extra feathers after playing so carefully, and trying so hard to hit the multiplier twice in that small time frame that they last in.

[mcsilas]

I only spent minimum flags during multipliers but I guess people used a lot more, since I'm unranked overall.

Not sure if the final battle would have lots of multipliers to make up for it, I want a decent rank in the end :(

[bethany81707]

18 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

If the exact same number of players use the exact same number of flags during the next Team Camilla multiplier, they stand a reasonable chance of giving Team Lyn a multiplier. The forecast tracker uses information from past multipliers to predict future multipliers, and early multipliers generally underperform compared to late multipliers due to their low value.

If Team Camilla fails to give Team Lyn a multiplier after her next multiplier, Team Lyn has more than enough members to make an end-of-round rally for a win.

If Team Camiilla does give Team Lyn a multiplier, all bets are off since it depends entirely on how many points a Team Lyn multiplier earns. Team Camilla could either put the score deep into Team Camilla territory, which would make a comeback very difficult for Team Lyn or Team Camilla could put the score nearly even, which would be a guaranteed Team Lyn win.

Also, because there are over 20 hours remaining in this round, any slowing down or speeding up of point acquisition can easily move the next Team Camilla multiplier forward or backwards by a few hours, which makes things very hard to predict. For example, you'll notice that there's a pretty well-defined kink in the graph right where Lyn took the lead after the previous Team Camilla multiplier where score acquisition is noticeably faster when Team Lyn is behind in points and noticeably slower when Team Lyn is ahead in points. That much fluctuation could very easily shift the timing of the next Team Camilla multiplier.

Wait, Lyn's going to get far enough ahead to give Camilla another multiplier? Holy...

(Pity I won't be able to do much for the team in the lategame...)

[Lemmy]

2 rounds of multiplier level dumping is more than enough to save Lyn if the spreatsheet is accurate.

that's why you should only spend flags late game on the winning team.

[KatarinaCS1]

Looking at the prediction numbers and by how much Lyn is currently estimated to lose by (only 200 million, which Lyn gains on Camilla every 2 hours), I feel that a couple things could be done to change this outcome:

1. Triggering Camilla's final multiplier by 2+ hours earlier than expected, which will give Lyn more room to recover from it.

2. AVOID a Lyn multiplier as much as possible.  

To me, this means spending more flags to make up for the difference and most importantly this means hitting extra hard during Camilla's multiplier to keep Lyn out of range of getting her own.  However, I do also believe that votes will also increase in about 8 hours (as they did in the fight with Lucina) where Lyn was increasing her lead by roughly 150 million every hour, vs the current roughly 100 million every hour.  That should force the multiplier earlier and give Lyn enough time to recover in the final hours (especially if we all save for it).  Once Lyn has the lead again she can maintain it safely without fear of a multiplier again for roughly 5-6 hours.

Also finally, things can (and most likely will) change.  Everything listed above is just speculation on my part after looking at the numbers and voting projections.