Antihero Anonydraft Mafia (Game Over)

[All Might]

Why is Endeavor cleared because of all the vanilla claims?

[Shiki Ryougi]

There's a lot to cover here and I don't really have time for it all tonight, but this should give you all something to chew on.

After my first read-through, I can agree with the sentiment that Kratos is town. I really don't like his attitude and know exactly who it belongs to and it brings back bad memories of scum in the past, but unless the doctor claim is faked somehow I don't really see how that could be the case. 

I still suspect Endeavor and Mello for previously stated reasons, but they could both use to post some new content. Omar is a little fishy because nothing about their posts really stands out to me as original, but IMO that's usually just a misconception that gets corrected on a reread. Faye... I don't want to lynch this slot until I hear what her sub has to say. Toshio and Nagito are a little confusing to me, I didn't think there would be scum in there but I didn't think Rick would be scum either. Kokichi is in the same boat, along with the Batter. I feel like one of these townreads is scum, something about the way Rick played suggests to me that there was another experienced player he was bouncing off of for support. Rick's flip has really thrown me, I bet Titania took him out because he looked like a solid town player. 

I need to reread but I also need to sleep. 2018 is not taking it easy on my schedule, in my line of work extremely bitter weather means more hours spent on various stuff. I hope to have more time tomorrow. And I see your rageposts, Kratos, I'll deal with them tomorrow if I decide there's enough actual substance to them.

I should leave my vote somewhere for tonight... 

##Vote: Mello

Looking forward to some content here.

Oh yeah, I'm suspected by well-nigh everyone at this point. Where's my wagon? Honestly, I'm just a little interested in who would be onboard with lynching me at the moment, it would help me greatly with forming my own scumreads.

G'night!

[Rain Nijika]

@Toshio Ozaki Experimenting on your own wife is hardly necessary.

I'm referring with that bit to Omar thinking Kratos is clear because he made a mistake (P15) with regards to coordinates in line with the one Mello made a page earlier (P14). I actually read your bit and adapted it.

To be clear I don't remember exactly why I brought Omar up except for there was a few name throws of him by Beast/Nagito/someone else around the time I started writing that wall + the insomniac thing really reminded me of kirsche last game in that it was a long post semi-invalidated by phase end. He was a topic of discussion so I mentioned him, is the tl;dr.

Re:beast logic: Beast Logic is that they're not active-lurking in a scummy way? Not trying to misrepresent it, but I don't think I was calling them on activelurking.

Actually my sentence didn't parse because I'm bad what I meant to say is that it was like they were avoiding those reads until semi-prodded because the 'not wanting to view things in absolutes' post pinged me because that's sometimes code for 'I'm going to float' and I've been cut get back to you on this one in a second.

Other logic is nagito? please clarify.

I think Endeavour is clear because if he was scum he could've tried to force a protective CC/vengeful claim and then have the strongman whack them. How vanilla plays into this is that he is volunteering information about the actual setup by claiming that, something which scum wouldn't want to do. I don't see what benefit scum would have by lying about vengeful existing in-game, is what I'm saying in other words.

[Rain Nijika]

Beast, if you're still here, what about the insomniac claim by Omar?

[BBM]

Votals 2.1

Faye Valentine (3): The Batter, Omar Little, Nagito Komaeda
Mercenary Kratos (2): Kokichi Ouma
Endeavor (1): Toshio Ozaki
Nagito Komaeda (1): Lapis Lazuli
Mello (1): Beast

Not Voting (4): Faye Valentine, Mello, Mercenary Kratos, Endeavor

Around 67 hours left in the phase. 6 votes to hammer.

[Shiki Ryougi]

This is what I get for forgetting to close the tab.

1 minute ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

Beast, if you're still here, what about the insomniac claim by Omar?

That's about where this game got too twisted for my sleepy mind to comprehend. There's not much I can say about it. I've always heard that nobody really cared for insomniac on SF, so I don't think it's that much of a game-changer.

[Rain Nijika]

Sure, but along those lines, wouldn't it make him be more likely to be town?

[Rain Nijika]

Ok, that is content, so while I disagree on a lot of it I'm going to drop you for the moment, Beast and eat my humble pie. Go take a nap, your kingdom will still be here in the morning.

Here's a semi-updated claimslist, for reference. Correct it if I make a mistake, please.

Draft #/ Player/Roleclaim

1 Mercenary Kratos, Doctor

? The Batter

? (pre-10) Kokichi Ouma, Mayor

? Nagito Komaeda

? Lapis Lazuli

? Faye Valentine

? Beast

? Toshio Ozaki

9. Endeavor, Vanilla

10. Dr. Crowler, Town Vanilla - Lynched Day 1

?? Titania Andersen, Vanilla Serial Killer - Killed Night 1

?? Rick, Mafia Vanilla - Killed Night 1

13/14 (?) Omar Little, Insomniac

13/14 (?) Mello

 

Missing Roles: Vengeful (Pre-9), Strongman, ???

[All Might]

I needed to experiment on someone , who better than the person who promised to love and support me through it all? Ha ha, well I guess we weren't that close, but I couldn't exactly make any obviously aggressive moves against those Shiki at the time so kidnapping one of them was out of the question. I really do feel bad about it all though. I'm surprised a lady from outer space knows such details, honestly.

34 minutes ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

Re:beast logic: Beast Logic is that they're not active-lurking in a scummy way? Not trying to misrepresent it, but I don't think I was calling them on activelurking.

Actually my sentence didn't parse because I'm bad what I meant to say is that it was like they were avoiding those reads until semi-prodded because the 'not wanting to view things in absolutes' post pinged me because that's sometimes code for 'I'm going to float' and I've been cut get back to you on this one in a second.

Other logic is nagito? please clarify.

I think Endeavour is clear because if he was scum he could've tried to force a protective CC/vengeful claim and then have the strongman whack them. How vanilla plays into this is that he is volunteering information about the actual setup by claiming that, something which scum wouldn't want to do. I don't see what benefit scum would have by lying about vengeful existing in-game, is what I'm saying in other words.

Hmmm, I suppose but for me I just think scum!Beast would have played it a bit differently. You're right though that it isn't as strong and all-encompassing as it was in my head so I will keep that in mind. Not really interested in lynching the slot now though.

Ok I agree that Nagito is kinda floating in the background without reads. I think they're town because of other reasons though which are what I wanted you to comment on.

Quote

I think Endeavour is clear because if he was scum he could've tried to force a protective CC/vengeful claim and then have the strongman whack them. How vanilla plays into this is that he is volunteering information about the actual setup by claiming that, something which scum wouldn't want to do. I don't see what benefit scum would have by lying about vengeful existing in-game, is what I'm saying in other words.

Is that better than trying to survive and get people mislynched? Scum doesn't mind putting in information if it isn't going to hurt them in the long run, and as Crowler got lynched I would not be surprised to see him turn up as the counterwagon (which is why Endeavor flipping scum would make me very susipcious of Nagito).

[Rain Nijika]

A barn isn't exactly the most exciting place to hide in. The depths of electronic ocean, on the other hand, are quite entertaining.

Re: Hopeless: The vote/unvote sorta washes away since it was policy. Your other point is you don't sea scum diving in so early? I can sea where you're going but he had about a half-hour window to compose himself before setting sail on that particular voyage. In addition, it could very well be cover to avoid a back-to-back scum drownings. Null for right now.

Re: Endeavour part: claiming vanilla isn't exactly the best survival strategy. Sea: Kratos. I get that scum can sometimes provide information but I don't think this claim was calculated/focused, like a jet-spray of information if that makes sense. It was more like a sprinkler, scattered, IMO.

Beast has stepped up like I said so it's

Faye> Nagito > Kratos

on my lynch navigation.

[Rain Nijika]

when I say that, I think the claim by K was after pressure was applied, so it was a form of survival strat. Crowler would be a better comparison, though he more just plain subbed out.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Sorry, my life sucks, no content today, maybe tomorrow

[Violet Evergarden]

I've read the thread.

Faye's the best lynch. All of two posts on Day 1, one the new player posting refuge in audacity, one the old player using Komaeda as a stepping stone to make her obvious wagon jump seem better. Komaeda probably liked that, but it's still bad. Rick decrying the wagon because Faye only had one post is suspect too - it's a superficial look at her player slot I'd expect from scum defending a buddy. Unless the new player starts producing heavily, it's time to purify this corrupt slot.

Changed my mind about Mello's Rick associations. Rick actually acted as if Mello was scummy but used the non-defense as an excuse to not vote him more than to defend him or sway votes off of Mello. This Rick post has Rick find Mello really scummy but conveniently votes Endeavor instead. It also looks like he has a Mello case but a prod on Endeavor. Mello may be scum who Rick was avoiding bussing. All that's keeping him from being my highest priority is his relatively good end-of-Day-1 post history.

One quirk about Beast is he often claims other people "already stated his reasoning" but he doesn't specify who's or what reasoning he agrees with. This lessens his accountability. This isn't too scummy but it could be done strategically by mafia so they have less content to be hang on, or don't get accused of sheeping, so there's slight concern here. Want him to talk more in the future. Also needs to post clearer priorities between Endeavor and Mello and explain them.

Lapis' new player's content looks trustworthy. Fine leaving them alive now. It doesn't matter to my mission. Lapis should explain how much stock they put in their Komaeda read, though. I assume they're voting him because Faye already has votes. The reasons themselves aren't very strong. Give me a more in-depth read on Komaeda to work with.

Komaeda is unmemorable, but when I read his content it's alright. I don't prefer him as today's lynch. Toshio is more memorable. His content is also alright. Rick outright said he didn't consider Toshio scummy when voting Toshio, implying that vote was made for posturing. Rick wanted to look like he was a townie with a thought process trying to read people. I don't rule out scum!Toshio, but I don't think the vote implicates Toshio as being compliant in scum/scum distancing. There was no actual friction.

Endeavor leans town due to Rick interactions. Rick's Endeavor vote near the end of the day was closer to a prod in hindsight and made Endeavor an actual wagon (3 votes) over this weak reasoning. Reads scum/town, not scum/scum.

No problems with Omar all game but I tend to read his posting style as townie. That said, Insomniac as a pick does lean very town. If scum picks it they miss out on a stronger ability and are now expected to put out more content.

Faye posted while I read. No change in read. IRL excuses can happen to either alignment.

[Cú Chulainn]

I realised immediately after I stopped posting that scum wouldn’t need a doctor if they picked the strongman. ...And also that Rick would probably never have gone splat I guess. Meh, whatever. Kratos sucks but they are probably town.

 

I’m not doing exact quotes for town Titania because it’s not relevant and I’m posting from the lair of all evil, early morning public transport. This is pointlessly dull. Titania was town because they were posting very honestly and clearing so many people that they were unlikely to be mafia. The only way it would make sense is if it they were defending their scumbuddies and they were a reasonable NK target. The kind of paranoia that required Titania to be scum is the shit liars use to push mislynches anyway. 

 

I didn’t factor in the SK factor because it’s ludicrous to think about it until later. If you really care that much I can grab quotes later for the other parts but I don’t.

 

##Unvote

##Vote: Lapis Lazuli

 

What I said about Komaeda is definitely still noteworthy, but this opening bothers me a lot.

 

There’s a lot of empty words there about situations that won’t happen? Why does scum Omar lie about their insomnia? It’s the most disprovable lie in the world! They don’t even suspect Omar so this just strikes me as total filler. I also have no idea why they suspect the person they’re voting, which should never really be a thing. Is it just because of what they did today? Because that’s pretty darn weak for a sub in post. Where’s your ~townie motivation~, Lapis? ...Maybe it’s on the next page? I need to leave now, so definitely not me!

 

Wrt Toshio I think their interactions with Rick are pretty insignificant. I wouldn’t call them town from them, but it would take a real case for me to consider them as scum and I’m not buying what’s out there anyway.

[Cú Chulainn]

I have some more time before my super evil business meeting after all! Aren’t you all lucky to have me?

 

Beast just looks like he needs a map. Can you explain your thoughts on hopeless and wifeless(?) properly? 

 

Lapis’ content on this page is a bit better (they felt so very tame before for a townie sub in) but I still want them to reexplain their Nagito things! 

 

I’d sheep the Batter on Faye. Do you maybe have an ahoge under that hat? If you do, then this game is totally on lock. Can you respond to my criticisms of the hopeless lucker boy though? I don’t understand why he’s null to you, don’t you trust me? I always help the protaganist, so this behaviour is so very hurtful. 

 

If this wasn’t a phonepost, I would totally pretend to be crying right now! ;(((((

 

Preferably after the suspect himself responds to it though. Even someone with a worthless talent like Nagito could use someone else’s logic to argue their way out. You’re supposed to be a stepping stone for us, hope boy, not the other way around!

 

##Unvote

##Vote: Nagito Komaeda

[Refakitty³]

##Vote: Lapis lazuli 

The D1 lapis wasn't very inspiring with her Faye vote, but what is telling is the D2 content. The Omar read doesn't make sense- how is Omar clear if his Insomniac claim is true? Scum could've picked Insomniac as that's a more irrelevant role that wouldn't draw the ire of the SK, for example, and its not a role that town would immediately want to lynch. Also the entire thing about Omar faking Insomniac doesn't make sense so I'm not sure where she's going with this.

The Nagito bit isn't inspiring either because I'm struggling to understand where is the scum intent behind Nagito citing Toshio/Rick interactions but there isn't much I can say here given that I'd like to see more conviction behind the Nagito read.

 

But the worst of all is the Kratos read. Yeah she spends two paragraphs on Kratos but the conclusion doesn't have any kind of conviction. There's the nitpick of Kratos not considering my cc to be a townslip and because of that he's scummy? Along with reactions and judgement but those are vague terms and don't tell us why you think there's scum intent there. Everything about the Kratos scumread is vague and I don't like that because that easily directs more attention on to a slot that already has a lot of it without any precision.

The worst part of the read is the treatment of Kratos' claim. The thing is I can't see how you're still scumreading Kratos after the claim, enough to be placing him in your lynch priority.  You say the claim is null but that's handwaving context; the claim is highly alignment indicative. Do you think scum pick Doctor AND Strongman? Do you think that Scum!Kratos doesn't doc Rick, who wasn't under any suspicion whatsoever and some people were townreading? Also if scum get first pick and take doc, then they need to think hard about fakeclaiming because the moment they claim the role is the moment they garner lots of attention to that slot, so doc being guaranteed scum pick isn't obvious.  This is weird if we compare this to how you look at Omar's claim; or how you're giving the Beast a pass for his posts even though he has been passive AF in this game and doesn't have the same points going for him as Kratos does, forget the fact that KRATOS ACTUALLY GOT A CORRECT SCUMREAD.

tl;dr you are resisting any kind of townread on Kratos while scumreading him for vague reasons which is setting him up for a mislynch, if not today, then in a future phase. Couple this with how you're "ok with letting him die for the night phase" and that's just scum logic now because mafia can just choose a target other than Kratos who is unlikely to be doc'd to throw more suspicion on him during D3.

[Refakitty³]

16 hours ago, Beast said:

Alright. I still have a lot going on IRL, but the last thing we need is someone else subbing out, so I’ll try and stick to it. I'm going to have a five-minute window to post this before I have to go to work, so no NK reaction yet.

In my opinion, the scummiest players right now are Endeavor, Kratos, and Mello. Here is my reasoning:

Endeavor has been a fairly infrequent poster with questionable reads throughout the game. Her vote on me seemed rather easy, she was reluctant to address any of my posts afterwards, and she didn’t offer the best reasoning for her Crowler vote either. I understand that time issues play some part in all of that, but her later posts read less as posts based off of quick reads and more posts that are just poor in general.

Kratos’s main contribution towards the end of D1 was his whole “these draft numbers don’t add up, somebody’s lying” argument. Which is an easy point for scum to make, as pointing out things like that allows someone to contribute to the game without actually scumhunting. His posts at the very end of D1 are especially confusing. I don’t see a reason for scum to post something like that after the threat of a turbolynch has already passed, except maybe to throw off suspicion, in which case it actually makes a lot of sense. I really disliked the tone of his last posts: it reads like a last-minute defense, but he should have been able to tell he wasn’t in danger. It’s very scummy to me.

Mello is currently a strong townread for many players because of how he reacted to his claim and then to Crowler’s claim. The reactions are good, yes, but is the rest of his content? His late D1 content was very insubstantial other than those two things. It almost feels like after everybody started townreading him, he loosened up and stopped trying to post good content. Like, literally. Read back and you’ll see where he promised he’d post some thoughts in an hour or so. Two hours later, he shows up only to post a correction on some of Kratos’ numbers logic. Then he disappears for the rest of the day. Could be circumstance, but nonetheless, he missed some key conversations at a key moment and never explained why. Mello did some things yesterday that cast doubt on his being scum, but that shouldn’t let him off the hook for all of the scummy things that haven’t changed about his play.

I’m very interested in hearing some reads from the above 3 players. I would lynch on any of those slots should they be unable to convince me of their non-scumminess. I’m on the fence about Faye, Lapis, and Omar, I want to hear more from these slots before casting any firm judgements. Everybody else is probably town, maybe with Toshio and Titania being a little bit more suspicious than the others.

 

This post is lazy AF, honestly if I don't see any effort from you in trying to actually push the game forward I'm going to consider voting you. Do you think that Rick was hardbussing Endeavor D1, or are you ignoring that? What do you think of Endeavor's claim?

Case on me is a misrep. Yeah I didn't appear to post thoughts like I said I would at that time, but that is not evidence of me not trying to contribute to scumhunting. Sorry man, life happens. But did you really ignore my two posts before the cc where I gave my insight on various players? Are you ignoring the fact that I give opinions on other players without even being prodded? Are you tunneling on me just because I hopped on to the Kratos wagon on a sheep? What are the other reasons that you are scumreading me for again?

The worst part is that you agree that there are reasons for townreading me but not for Endeavor yet you vote me over Endeavor because ??? Is my Kratos vote really incriminating to you or what?

 

[Olivier]

@Toshio Ozaki

Reread all of your content.  Your Kratos case reads as though you've caught him on something over intentionally tunneling, so it's not bothering me anymore (and yes, Batter mentioned this five days ago; it takes a while for someone of my abilities to catch up, okay?).  For someone who got voted by him, your Rick interactions are surprisingly non telling.  Something I've noticed now that I'm focusing on you is that you're throwing out pretty detailed town reads every few posts.  This is possible from scum, but it really limits your lynch pool for minimal benefit on your end (maybe one or two players will townread you for it), which makes you more likely to be town.  Why do you think Endeavor is more likely to be scum?  In general, your D2 attitude has been to cross people off your scumlist, which has been bugging me (not like "this is scummy", more like "where is this guy coming from").  I don't think the first thing scum does is shoot down their remaining lynch options (especially me) without waiting to gauge the general opinion.  My only remaining issues are what I mentioned earlier WRT Rick's interactions, and even though you called me out on the same, it feels like you're parking on Endeavor for a weak D2 entrance when you agreed w/my late D1 defense of the slot and I'm not really sure where you stand on everyone else (by this, I mean scumreads, I can tell who you're townreading).  Are you scumreading Lapis?

[Olivier]

Overall, you'd probably be null even though most of your actions point towards town because of Rick's interactions w/you and your D2 vote baffles me.

[Refakitty³]

@Toshio Ozaki Do you feel like Rick's interactions with Endie are a bus, then? I'm not seeing it so I'd like it if you could point out some posts which are telling. Also, what about Nagito's content do you feel is a towntell? I think I've got an accurate identity guess of the player but I'm not sure if their play particularly townie especially since they had taken a backseat for much of D1.

@Omar Little Faye's vote was on Endeavor  was bad at that point especially since she was trying to justify how a wagon happening early game was normal which is scummy because that's the kind of logic that let's scum get away with wagon hopping. Endeavor's vote did not have any such explanation at that point in time and his vote didn't have any real conviction to it so I didn't feel like it was necessarily scummy.

Currently thinking Lapis/Faye>Beast>Nagito>Endeavor(the claim is NAI IMO esp since mafia can easily fake vanilla as a 1x Strongman but its more that Endeavor has a shoddy activity history. Do not have any actual problems with his reads. The interactions with Rick are good so I'd only consider this lynch as a last resort)

[Refakitty³]

Fwiw, I don't scumread Omar but Batter's point about Omar picking Insomniac as a towntell is wrong. Omar and I picked the same number, so both of us are at the bottom of the list. If you're scum then any role is better than none, the pick is NAI. The chance of scum picking a strong role at that point are really low.

[Olivier]

We can assume Endeavor is being honest about his numbers and his pick order regardless of alignment.  Additionally, it's safe to say that he actually went for Vengeful because if there is no Vengeful claim later on, he becomes confirmed scum.  Why risk that for minimal benefit?  In that case, I doubt scum would allow him to pick something that would almost guarantee him Vanilla.

@Omar Little I don't understand why my Mello read was overblown, especially when you're just criticizing my ED1 case as opposed to my overall case.  

@Kokichi Ouma Explain what caused you to backpedal on your Kratos read.  This doesn't read as a natural progression to me, considering you were hard defending him last phase.  Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but it reads like you're going out of your way to not townread Kratos based on his claim.  I dunno, if someone I'd been townreading for an entire phase and later flip flopped on claimed Doctor, I'd be more conflicted than you are (especially considering you mentioned claims could be alignment relevant on D1).  Additionally, I don't feel like you read me very well at all.  Surely someone of your talents can do better than that!  My main scumread for 90% of the phase was Mello, and I wasn't townreading Dr. Crowler.  Your scumread on me also breaks apart at your main point.  At the same time, scum!me is supposed to be perfectly okay w/stating an Endeavor scumread after he was the most likely lynch candidate but defended Dr. Crowler because I didn't want to tie myself down to the lynch (even though he only had two votes at the time; if you're looking for the Super High School Level Fortune Teller, I believe he went that way).

@Mercenary Kratos Rick casing you could have been distancing considering it didn't last very long, but your reactions to him weren't scum/scum.

@Omar Little I don't get how I severely limited the pool of players I could lynch while Toshio did not.  I'd argue that he actually does it more, and so far he's been less willing to go back on his townreads than I have been.

@Mello It's less Lapis' content, but I thought her tone yesterday was obvious town which is why I never pushed it.  You could practically see the hope dripping out of her every word!  Her scumreads today are giving me the exact opposite impression, however.  What did I actually do that was scummy?  Why are you saying that Beast doesn't have strong reads?  Not much of her initial sub in post is very productive, w/half of it being go-nowhere reads on Kratos/Omar, and more time spent on townreads over scumreads.  It feels like she's posted a lot recently but hasn't really done a lot recently.  I also don't like her Faye case because it's based solely on Faye being unproductive, which is even less than what she has on me.  Insomniac is more likely to be town because as scum, the last thing I'd want to do is pick a role that forces me to post more.

@Beast I wouldn't be onboard w/lynching you since both of your posts today have okay (and I wasn't scumreading you on D1, anyways), but it's more that there's nothing really telling that makes me more sure that you're town and what Batter said about your lynch priority being confusing holds true.

##Unvote

##Vote: Lapis Lazuli

 

[Olivier]

*I also don't like her Faye case being her #1 scumread

[Olivier]

I should have made that post better, but my Lapis case ended up being entirely in my response to Mello (except for the last sentence, which is a separate reply to Mello).  Hopefully I do better at communicating in the future, or I won't be fulfilling my role very well!

[All Might]

I don't think Rick's interactions with Endeavor are really that great for Endeavor. he just parked his vote on Endeavor all day for weak reasoning ("gut") and could have easily moved it onto Crowler if necessary. He never really updated his read on Endeavor. See here, he doesn't really comment on the content, just the classic "his new post doesn't impress me much" type argument. This is after sitting on the vote since ED1. Scu maren't going to move their vote off their buddy if they don't have to.

@Mello I don't think scum instavotes the doc claim out of annoyance. It's the weakest of the towntells and I could see them being scum but its enough to put them above the others.

Scum could easily be Lapis/Faye but Endeavor is the worst for me right now. No opinions, no interest in catching scum, just interested in getting by: those are my impressions of his posts and his general attitude. I'm kinda annoyed I let him slip as my vote was a little pivotal. Curse my cautious nature, perhaps if I was more decisive I would've saved my last village. Lapis is the least likely because I think their reaction yesterday was their townmeta. Disagree that I'm parking on Endeavor: its been less than 24 hours since I made my vote and there hasn't been much more in terms of people to push. The only alternative is Lapis, really.