We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Snike]

Well first thing's first; I don't think omega walks in and triple busses his scumteam. I could see single; I could see double, but I think triple bussing is out of the question.

Literally first post after redtext:

On 4/15/2018 at 2:01 PM, Omega. said:

I'm villa, baby!

Do we have a vig?

Why on earth did you guys not lynch between Zkirsche/Junko yesterday? There's definitely scum between them.

Why are you guys townreading eclipse and Walrein?

Why are people voting/suspecting confirmed villager Marth?

Lol @ this village. The foolishness stops today. We kill Junko, and if he flips town kill kirsche next. If he flips villa, I think maybe JB is a good shot. I don't like Shinori either, nor Weapons. Shinori, please talk to me more about Nightmare. Your guys' interaction was interesting.

There's probably a wolf or 2 who is deep. eclipse and Walrein are both voting Marth who was obviously a villager, so perhaps it's between them.

I really need people who are more familiar with kirsche/Junko to talk to me about how they're acting in this game. Lynching between them today and vigging the other if we hit villa would be a homerun play. Apparently we have only until tomorrow to make the play; I'm going to be in and out and checking on stuff.

The way Sully claimed today likely comes from villa. Setsuna made a post earlier that I thought was villagery as well.

Apparently my vote is on JB. He was was wolfy from what I remember reading along. Can someone link a case? Also, hello Refa. Is there anything important I should know? Who's likelier wolf between Junko/kirsche?

Like unless you think scum d2 were in a pinch and wanted to throw some huge hail mary play on scum I don't think he is a member of the mafia.

Scumbuddies don't let scumbuddies bus 46-60% of their team on entry.

Going to read more.

[Makaze]

Just now, Refa said:

it's bad because you 1) put a target on your back 2) let town direct your kill 3) are the most suspected if there are no nights where there are three kills 4) are screwed if mafia decides to rolecop you ever 5) you probably have a better fakeclaim 6,7,8,9,10) there probably more like five more reasons but tl,dr; claiming vig as sk is literally a meme on sf at this point.

this particular variant of the claim lowers the risk of all of these imo

but i think that all of that applies in this case too. if hes town then all of that is true too. he was the biggest lynch and claimed to clear himself. what claim could he get away with?

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Snike said:

Well first thing's first; I don't think omega walks in and triple busses his scumteam. I could see single; I could see double, but I think triple bussing is out of the question.

Literally first post after redtext:

Like unless you think scum d2 were in a pinch and wanted to throw some huge hail mary play on scum I don't think he is a member of the mafia.

Scumbuddies don't let scumbuddies bus 46-60% of their team on entry.

Going to read more.

Do that. In particular, read Shinori's reactions.

And don't forget to ISO Marth, the slot before Omega. Check out his claim etc.

[Makaze]

I have this tinfoil that Omega is running a hardbus game

Because his reads coming into thread are simply too good

its mindboggling really

[Makaze]

One of the things that pings me is how Omega keeps mentioning how people keep making these "sick plays" if they are mafia. I think he could be trying to make such a sick play by bussing his entire team and trying to win as lone deep. It's a possibility.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

but i think that all of that applies in this case too. if hes town then all of that is true too. he was the biggest lynch and claimed to clear himself. what claim could he get away with?

imo gaius only fakeclaims bookie as mafia (as sk i feel like he'd have a much better built in fakeclaim to work with).  idk like if people are legitimately scumreading gaius that's fine (well, it's not fine but i can understand their position) but pushing him as sk basically lets people push a slot they'd otherwise would think is town which is bad.

At this point, I'd look into Athena/Kirsche/Snike for the second scum.

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

One of the things that pings me is how Omega keeps mentioning how people keep making these "sick plays" if they are mafia. I think he could be trying to make such a sick play by bussing his entire team and trying to win as lone deep. It's a possibility.

I don't think Scum!Omega switches off from Junk to Kirsche in this scenario, even if they're both scum.

[Refa]

TBH, my gut read is Omega is ITP because that role just seems perfect for an ITP but no one else seems to agree.  Don't ever push this until 2 more scum are dead.

[Makaze]

Just now, Refa said:

imo gaius only fakeclaims bookie as mafia (as sk i feel like he'd have a much better built in fakeclaim to work with).  idk like if people are legitimately scumreading gaius that's fine (well, it's not fine but i can understand their position) but pushing him as sk basically lets people push a slot they'd otherwise would think is town which is bad.

At this point, I'd look into Athena/Kirsche/Snike for the second scum.

I don't think Scum!Omega switches off from Junk to Kirsche in this scenario, even if they're both scum.

For the record, I think LG is Mafia, and SK is just possible.

Explain? (I don't get the switch argument)

[Refa]

Just now, Makaze said:

For the record, I think LG is Mafia, and SK is just possible.

Explain? (I don't get the switch argument)

Fair enough, I'll just drop this then if it's not relevant lol.

Like, let's say Scum!Omega is intent on bussing Junk.  Why would he switch at the last few hours of the day, especially when it's very unlikely that Junk doesn't get lynched at that point in time?  It'll just make him look bad the following day.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Fair enough, I'll just drop this then if it's not relevant lol.

Like, let's say Scum!Omega is intent on bussing Junk.  Why would he switch at the last few hours of the day, especially when it's very unlikely that Junk doesn't get lynched at that point in time?  It'll just make him look bad the following day.

What if he doesn't care how it looks? I don't think most of the stuff he's done makes a lot of sense. He's been right, but he hasn't been helping town, is the way I'd put it. I'm too tired to actually argue this one though.

Interesting thought on ITP. I'll pocket it for later.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

What if he doesn't care how it looks? I don't think most of the stuff he's done makes a lot of sense. He's been right, but he hasn't been helping town, is the way I'd put it. I'm too tired to actually argue this one though.

Interesting thought on ITP. I'll pocket it for later.

That's possible.  I'm more open to being wrong here because it's just his actions that seem townie to me, but there's no specific thing where I'm like "yeah, he'd never do THIS and THIS as scum".  Just expand on it when you're more awake, probably.

[Refa]

BTW, what's your read on Snike/Satsuma ATM?

[Makaze]

I am leaning town on them from multiple aspects. Many of the things they resonate with my town POV. I think they got stuck in a Mack as scum world and it made sense to them... But tonally, I'd say they are null with definite hyper awareness of bad looks. But that isn't scummy in and of itself. I'd say they have a lot of genuine thinking, they are just wrong.

[Makaze]

What about you? @Refa

[Refa]

Okay, won't lynch.  I've had a hard time reading him today (going into it, I thought he'd be more likely to be town, but then his Mackc2 push threw me for a loop), which is why I asked you for a second opinion.  There are a lot of things where I'm like "I want this guy to be town", and it's probably telling that outside of his Mackc2 push/his claimed night action (which seems shoddy to me anyways), nothing particularly bothers me about his play today.  I had issues with the slot on D2 but I think those got resolved?  I should check but I'm too checked out heheheh.

Who do you think is scumteam?  I forgot about Athena's interactions/getting hard pushed by flipped scum, so at this point I feel like it has to be Arcanite/Kirsche.  I'm still null on Athena/Snike but I wouldn't lynch there today.

[Snike]

From memory: Marth claimed self-watcher/ delayer which is a role that is much stronger when used by anti-town than when it's used by town. He was also pushed d1 because of what I believe was his  but ultimately unwagoned after claim and Bartozio voteswitch which was thought of as opportunistic. Right before he subbed out, iirc, he also smeared me by suggesting that my role was a fakeclaim and then not following up with an answer.

still isoing

[Refa]

*Walrein/Snike

[Makaze]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

Okay, won't lynch.  I've had a hard time reading him today (going into it, I thought he'd be more likely to be town, but then his Mackc2 push threw me for a loop), which is why I asked you for a second opinion.  There are a lot of things where I'm like "I want this guy to be town", and it's probably telling that outside of his Mackc2 push/his claimed night action (which seems shoddy to me anyways), nothing particularly bothers me about his play today.  I had issues with the slot on D2 but I think those got resolved?  I should check but I'm too checked out heheheh.

Who do you think is scumteam?  I forgot about Athena's interactions/getting hard pushed by flipped scum, so at this point I feel like it has to be Arcanite/Kirsche.  I'm still null on Athena/Snike but I wouldn't lynch there today.

See my PoE list. Add Omega if all of them flip and we're still here.

[Baldrick]

21 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I have this tinfoil that Omega is running a hardbus game

Because his reads coming into thread are simply too good

its mindboggling really

If kirsche flips mafia, I would take a second look at him #lininguplynches. I remember him saying re junko/kirsche, something like "there's no way two towns tunnel each other for so long", which made me think he was happy with either of them dead, and then would declare the other the victim of a ML push. If he's bussing this much, it's only worth if he can get multiple mafioso towncred.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

See my PoE list. Add Omega if all of them flip and we're still here.

Where that at?

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

If kirsche flips mafia, I would take a second look at him #lininguplynches. I remember him saying re junko/kirsche, something like "there's no way two towns tunnel each other for so long", which made me think he was happy with either of them dead, and then would declare the other the victim of a ML push. If he's bussing this much, it's only worth if he can get multiple mafioso towncred.

Baldrick, where's your head at at the moment?

[Refa]

By that I mean like, your general reads, not calling you crazy lol.

[Baldrick]

@Refa

I'm wishing Arcanite would flip already, which is reminding me of how I felt about several lynches in antiheroes.

Read Snike's case on mackc, the scummiest thing there imo is his inconsistent opinion on kirsche, but his interaction with junko, and jb smearing him, means I'm still not interested in it. Snike and Soy both sound genuine, and mackc's aforementioned interactions make it a low-percentage ML, so it makes me feel better about them.

Sully's comment about kirsche subbing out pinged me, it's a bit shady, but I haven't mustered up the willpower to ISO him.

[Snike]

I can buy the mack being town tunneling thing. It's more the timing than anything that makes it super weird for me + I honestly do think his case is bad on me.

Ok, Page 48.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:10 PM, Omega. said:

Lol.

Maybe it's Shinori who's deep. I have no idea why you guys called him villager, and if athena is villa too, I'm all for killing him too.

There are a lot of wolves in this game.

^This is with regards to a huge shinori post. Mentions backing walrein's read up about INVESTIGATIVE wording wrt a previous marth post but pins the blame on walrein for it. before that at the start he's wavery on walrein. Also pushes kirsche, but only through backing up some of BBM's reasoning, but then throws shade on BBM for defending him all the same. Shades athena as chainsawing for kirsche, more or less. Defends Zeus and Nightmare, shades Athena again for the JB casing.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:13 PM, Shinori said:

1. Dunno.

2. Why is there scum between kirsche/Junko?  Is this more or lessbecause of how hard they are 1v1ing each other?  Why does this rub off to you as town/scum and not town/town or scum/scum?

3. I think Eclipse is getting brownie points for being mayor which I disagree with,  I think I kind of handwaved most of Eclipse stuff because I got a gut feeling she was more town than scum but, admittedly, I should probably reread her as I don't remember that much WRT her.

4: I wasn't really a fan of lynching him that much on D1 and I'd still much rather Lynch Athena > Marth but I think Walrein raised a few questions which kind of pinged me towards Marth's actions, but maybe that's just me being biased and comparing what he did with his role to what I would do with my role.

Why do you want me to talk more about Nightmare? I felt his EoD1 plays were questionable but have since dropped that scum read.  Like I dropped it also at the EoD1.

^This is in response to Omega's first post. Thing that pings me with above is 2 for obvious reasons (being the ambivalence towards the tunnel and Junko being in on it), 3 is kinda an admission that he wasn't reading eclipse; this allows for the lateday eclipse push.

4 is pinning blame onto walrein once again for the shade on Omega/Marth's slot.

Nightmare is NAI but it's interesting that he said he dropped his scumread at the end of day 1 when he voted him day 2.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:15 PM, Shinori said:

And this is why I hate playing with Omega.

Vague posts, no reasoning, and just spitting out anything and everything without posting reasoning for it.

^In response to quote 1. Tone: irritation

On 4/15/2018 at 2:17 PM, Shinori said:

Like to that entire post all you have to say is "Lol maybe shinori is wolf."

Why? What about the post says that? Where are you reading that from?  What about my other posts? You stated before you didn't like me and you stated that you want me to talk about someone I VERY briefly scumread for a few hours or so and you say my reactions are interesting?  What's interesting about them? Why should I talk about Nightmare more?  Which of my other posts are giving you scum reads?

Fucking use your keyboard and type words into the little box that answer questions and THEN hit the submit reply button.

Follow up: Stage 2: rage. I think this is real at this point.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:17 PM, Omega. said:

The kirsche/Junko interaction pinged me hard. Reminds me of Arcanite/Prims 2 games ago and Marth/Boron in the last game. I would be shocked if both were villa here.

With eclipse, she seems to just be picking at people for weak play. I haven't seen her push anyone for things that might actually be scummy. Is she usually like this? Serious question, I don't get the townreads.

Gimme a bit. I'm going to pull up some things.

In response to quote 2. This is some detailed explanation, cites past game as an example.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:21 PM, Shinori said:

i expected the reasonings for kirsche/junko were similiar to your reaction with marth/Boron so that makes sense coming from you.

Yeah I think Eclipse is normally known for pushing people for weak play or bad play.  It was something I used to get into arguments with her a lot because she would case me every game when I sucked at this game(I still suck).

@SnikeWhich Walrein read are you saying you disagree on?  I assume you meant my post from yesterday where I was leaning scum on him?  I can kind of understand disagreeing with it now but what was giving you town Walrein vibes before his posts yesterday?

Response to Omega. More cordial in tone after only 4 minutes. Accepts reasoning, kinda softdefends eclipse's play but it's more a null statement.

Pushes me for walrein townread when his longpost admits he finds walrein better.

On 4/15/2018 at 2:29 PM, Omega. said:

Whoa there cowboy.

I just replaced in. I was reading along and was pretty sure Marth was villa. Now, I KNOW he's innocent and because of that, I'm pretty sure he/I am on the mislynch list. I really do not get why people who have played with Marth before thought he was wolfy here. I misread him the last game we played but after I understood his playstyle better, he was an easy read for me here. So, I think at least 1 wolf has pushed the slot and I'm surprised anyone wants to lynch him over like 1 of kirsche/Junk, JB, athena, etc.

Response to rage post. This is pretty even in tone. Explains reasoning. Nails 2 confirmed scum in his last sentence. Is this man a wizard?

Gut is I don't think Shinori faked this anger is where I'm at It reads as scum frustrated at being scumread for no reason. But then there's a 4 minute window between posts which is fast to cool off. Do you think the 4 minute shift in tone makes it look fake @Makaze ?

All the same I think Omega's still town here.

I'm also reconsidering walrein and athena hard because I think Shinori's pinning his Marth suspicion on former and is chainsaw-shading (at least in JB's case) the latter.  Former is lining up Walrein for an ML, latter is lining me up because up until then I was hell-bent on lynching Athena.

What is the case on kirsche again? I'm legitimately asking because I'm getting the sinking feeling that my reads this game are sub-50% in accuracy.

[Makaze]

@Snike I was actually thinking that maybe they didn't okay Omega bussing them and the anger WAS genuine, from a scum/scum POV

But yeah I read too much into this stuff

I think Refa is right and Omega as ITP makes more sense in the long run, if he isn't town

[Makaze]

My case on Kirsche is subbed up in: JB and Shinori both avoided a Kirsche lynch in favor of eclipse counter wagon. imo this was a suboptimal move unless Kirsche was also mafia? Also, Kirsche's EoD defense stuff was bad. Really bad. I was sure he was flailing mafia. I wanted to clear him but it still doesn't read genuine even now.

Goddamn it. Don't make me reread shit at 5AM.

I am now reading these posts and I am not getting the same impression that I was at the time. This was the post that bothered me:

On 4/16/2018 at 6:09 PM, Zkirsche said:

He could easily be lying it was less than like 4-5 hours into phase when I left and he hadn't claimed. Even if it gets him lynched later down the line it makes sense to make a claim that noone likes lynching. Look at how successful it has been!

I felt like this read as very strange wording and desperate Mafia. In the heat of the moment I jumped on the first real tell of one of them being Mafia. Now I just think he was in a hurry and didn't really have any other way to word it. Ending a sentence with a preposition always sounds off.

Trying to come up with a possible explanation for the Shinori and Jaybee eclipse choice if I am wrong about Kirsche: I suppose what they actually thought was that they could push a CFD on the Mayor, and they knew eclipse was gone for the rest of the phase, so as soon as Kirsche claimed they probably expected people to go to that lynch. It was also a wagon that was not started by Mafia, but by me, so I think they were possibly setting up a mislynch on me on top of othe reasons. Also letting the V/W wagon go for another day really helped keep the other scum out of the limelight and Kirsche's role wasn't known at the time they made the decision.

All in all seems like my reasons are weak and I could see a world where I go back to reading Kirsche town. That EoD was the least townie thing I saw him do.