We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

They are much less likely to have complex speculations that lead to incorrect death guesses.* my bad

[Makaze]

Having read eclipse's ISO...

I am not impressed? All of their reads are surface level to me.

I am reminded of the only thing in athena's ISO that bothered me: some weird comment about how eclipse is town-y because she has "honest" scumhunting (quotes his, not mine). @athena_57 Can you give a quote or two that you feel are honest from eclipse's ISO?

 

@eclipse Can you give your top three scum reads, and maybe at least a basic analysis of if they could conceivably be scum together?

[Athena_57]

@Makaze

On ‎11‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 1:31 AM, eclipse said:

There's several types of tells in a game.  Some are hard tells, like someone spilling information that they shouldn't know (say, a claimed BP posting someone else's role).  Others are soft tells, things that are subconsciously done as we play the game.  Your recent posts are responses to people - in other words, passive play.  Yet you're being awfully pushy with your lone read.  This kind of disconnect is a soft tell - in this case, a scum tell.

 

On ‎11‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 6:09 AM, eclipse said:

So let's say that you're town.  You die D1.  Not only can you not solve the game, but your lack of reads means that I can't tie you to other people come D2.

My thing is associative reads.  But for that to work, everyone needs to interact with everyone.  What did you think of the exchange between Athena/Satsuma a few pages back?

This sort of stuff basically. The first part where she attacks me tells me she's already looking intensively at people's tones early in the game in an attempt to move out of RVS.

The second post does the same thing, it read to me as "honest" in the sense that it looks like she is attempting to get this game going as quickly as possible.

I'm not sure why exactly I think it's honest, but it doesn't look like fake productivity to me.

[Athena_57]

I can see where your surface-level comment is coming from though, others have commented on how she's mostly been attacking people over bad play rather than scummy play.

[Athena_57]

That second quote of Eclipse was directed to Fable by the way, in case you're wondering

[Refa]

Hard disagree on Eclipse attacking people for bad play over scum play.  A lot of her posts she uses soft tells to scumread people and she does analyze their responses.  This is coming from someone who think several people are attacking people for bad play over scum play, but I don't read Eclipse as one of them.

[Makaze]

Just now, Refa said:

Hard disagree on Eclipse attacking people for bad play over scum play.  A lot of her posts she uses soft tells to scumread people and she does analyze their responses.  This is coming from someone who think several people are attacking people for bad play over scum play, but I don't read Eclipse as one of them.

Based on the ISO I just read, I don't necessarily think she is attacking people for bad play over scummy play, but, she isn't reading very deep into her cases. Her cases seem passive in a sense. Like that post about soft tells. It isn't about athena. It's about what soft tells are. Later she says "I ignored a soft tell last time and it was a scum, never again". If she is reading deeper intents behind things, I don't believe it shows in her actions.

[Makaze]

One of the especially important things I'm seeing is how she says her things is associative reads. I haven't seen anything remotely like that line or reasoning from her. All of her votes are completely disconnected. I'm asking her to produce some. Hopefully that will change my mind.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

Based on the ISO I just read, I don't necessarily think she is attacking people for bad play over scummy play, but, she isn't reading very deep into her cases. Her cases seem passive in a sense. Like that post about soft tells. It isn't about athena. It's about what soft tells are. Later she says "I ignored a soft tell last time and it was a scum, never again". If she is reading deeper intents behind things, I don't believe it shows in her actions.

Yeah, I can get that.  I'm on Page 22 and my only comment on Eclipse's content is "I like her first case on Athena." lol.  I can understand her reads/cases and there's nothing that really bothers me but there's nothing that makes me confident.

[Iris]

Something has happened!

Yo. If you need another sub to spit some fire play at you, look no further than Omega. 

Omega has subbed in for Marth/Magnificence Incarnate.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

AW SHIT

[Makaze]

What bothers me more is that I think eclipse's behavior itself is the soft tell she's talking about...

In that she's randomly pressuring people for what I consider weak reasons and I don't think she's actually anywhere near scum hunting. She's just going for the easiest target she sees, is how it looks to me. Which can find scum sometimes... Just not impressive, easy to do as any alignment.

[Iris]

Day 2.I wish there was a Votaling Script :(
Jaybee (4): Omega., BBM, Via, athena_57
athena_57 (3): Refa, Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Omega (3): Walrein, eclipse
Zkirsche (3): RADicate, Mackc2, Weapons
Bibbon (2): Jaybee, SullyMcGully
Shinori (1): Zkirsche

Not Voting: Fenrir Aesir, Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Makaze, Fable

You have ~29 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Iris

[Fable]

13 minutes ago, Omega. said:

AW SHIT

WHY WOULD YOU SUB OUT JUST TO SUB BACK IN YOU GOOBER

[Makaze]

There could be a voting script... It would be easy, if people could be relied on to have 100% consistent vote styles.

[Refa]

Just now, Omega. said:

AW SHIT

Didn't open with "good news guys, I rolled town again", has big red text, seems surprised at something, looks like I caught mafia.

[Makaze]

I feel like the hardest part of reading this game is going to be keeping track of who is in which slot.

[Iris]

OP has been updated completely with regards to subs!

Still looking for a couple more subs. :(

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I'm villa, baby!

Do we have a vig?

Why on earth did you guys not lynch between Zkirsche/Junko yesterday? There's definitely scum between them.

Why are you guys townreading eclipse and Walrein?

Why are people voting/suspecting confirmed villager Marth?

Lol @ this village. The foolishness stops today. We kill Junko, and if he flips town kill kirsche next. If he flips villa, I think maybe JB is a good shot. I don't like Shinori either, nor Weapons. Shinori, please talk to me more about Nightmare. Your guys' interaction was interesting.

There's probably a wolf or 2 who is deep. eclipse and Walrein are both voting Marth who was obviously a villager, so perhaps it's between them.

I really need people who are more familiar with kirsche/Junko to talk to me about how they're acting in this game. Lynching between them today and vigging the other if we hit villa would be a homerun play. Apparently we have only until tomorrow to make the play; I'm going to be in and out and checking on stuff.

The way Sully claimed today likely comes from villa. Setsuna made a post earlier that I thought was villagery as well.

Apparently my vote is on JB. He was was wolfy from what I remember reading along. Can someone link a case? Also, hello Refa. Is there anything important I should know? Who's likelier wolf between Junko/kirsche?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

11 minutes ago, Fable said:

WHY WOULD YOU SUB OUT JUST TO SUB BACK IN YOU GOOBER

Lol.

This has more dramatic effect. I'm villa, btw. You were confident in Bibbon (now Kaoz) being V as well?

Also, hello to everyone I've played with and a bigger wassup to those I haven't.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Why are you guys townreading eclipse and Walrein?

Why are people voting/suspecting confirmed villager Marth?

Lol @ this village. The foolishness stops today. We kill Junko, and if he flips town kill kirsche next. If he flips villa, I think maybe JB is a good shot. I don't like Shinori either, nor Weapons. Shinori, please talk to me more about Nightmare. Your guys' interaction was interesting.

There's probably a wolf or 2 who is deep. eclipse and Walrein are both voting Marth who was obviously a villager, so perhaps it's between them.

The way Sully claimed today likely comes from villa. Setsuna made a post earlier that I thought was villagery as well.

Apparently my vote is on JB. He was was wolfy from what I remember reading along. Can someone link a case? Also, hello Refa. Is there anything important I should know? Who's likelier wolf between Junko/kirsche?

I'm not townreading Eclipse, but tonally Walrein seemed good on D1.  Him disappearing is null to me, he did the same thing in his last town game.

Please explain?  I'm waffling hard on his claim here because it seems dumb for scum to deal with.

Why JB?

Sure, why not.

Which post of Satsuma's was that?

Did you read all of the claims (Snike has a summary of all of the claimed roles somewhere in Day 2)?  How about end of Day 1, near the lynch?  Those are where I'd look into first.  Also Junko by a country mile.  Not sure how scummy I think he is, but I'm pretty sure ZKirsche is town so...

[Athena_57]

5 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Why on earth did you guys not lynch between Zkirsche/Junko yesterday? There's definitely scum between them.

Why are you guys townreading eclipse and Walrein?

Why are people voting/suspecting confirmed villager Marth?

Lol @ this village. The foolishness stops today. We kill Junko, and if he flips town kill kirsche next. If he flips villa, I think maybe JB is a good shot. I don't like Shinori either, nor Weapons. Shinori, please talk to me more about Nightmare. Your guys' interaction was interesting.

There's probably a wolf or 2 who is deep. eclipse and Walrein are both voting Marth who was obviously a villager, so perhaps it's between them.

I really need people who are more familiar with kirsche/Junko to talk to me about how they're acting in this game. Lynching between them today and vigging the other if we hit villa would be a homerun play. Apparently we have only until tomorrow to make the play; I'm going to be in and out and checking on stuff.

The way Sully claimed today likely comes from villa. Setsuna made a post earlier that I thought was villagery as well.

Apparently my vote is on JB. He was was wolfy from what I remember reading along. Can someone link a case? Also, hello Refa. Is there anything important I should know? Who's likelier wolf between Junko/kirsche?

Yo, Omega.

Good question!

Good question!

Good question!

Here's a link to my post linking to the JB case, I'm too lazy to link again. It also contains all roleclaims and my gamestance, bonus!

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-2/&do=findComment&comment=5191557

 

[Shinori]

1 hour ago, Zkirsche said:

I don't know anything about Junko's meta tbh I can't really remember, I just know he was kinda flaky. I don't really want to consider 2 year old meta though, nor do I want to read up his past games. The problem with sitting on the same read is that it's really easy to make a bunch of reads ED1 but hard to maintain them or show that they evolve as scum. So if that's all someone has then it's likely it comes from scum. It also lets scum have a lot of reads which appears better than not having many.

 I'm kinda annoyed we didn't yesterday now. People casing me for "tunneling" should really take a step back and think to themselves what they'd do in my shoes coming into the day phase with Junko ignoring your case and mislabelling it as a misrep. I don't think it was a misplay on my part to keep pushing there.

##Unvote
##Vote: Shinori

Shinori's read post here is mediocre imo. He never explained why Walrein was rubbing him the wrong way, Refa is third on gut (???). His bit about BBM is just discrediting Bibbon's townread on BBM and he is really disliking me over the day phase but of course never explains why. Would like some expansion here. I don't think JB is unmemorable now either so would like to see what he thinks of JB's new content.

Top three lynch dandidates fo me are Junko/Mackc/Shinori. Junko's read LD1 were very outdated and he accused me of misrepping him when I pointed that out. Mackc's predecessor Nightmare was scummy because of a strange LD1 vote switch and his attitude to scumhunting in general D1 and my Shinori read is explained above.

On 4/14/2018 at 11:05 AM, Shinori said:

Walrein is starting to rub me the wrong way and I'm getting scum vibes from him.  I was town reading him from Early day 1 play but that was primarily based on the fact that he was actually posting and that's probably a bad idea to just town read someone on.

I didn't explain this well but Walrein posting and then vanishing in inactivity fits for scum meta Walrein which is why I'm getting summy ish vibes from him.  Although he was kind of like this last game and was town then, as well as the fact that his more recent posts are a bit better for me and some other peoples posts are a bit worse for me.

I can understand part of your vote on me as I didn't go into full detail about my 'leaning' scum reads nor did I super hard case you, but that's primarily because I'd much rather lynch Athena at this point in time and feel more comfortable with that.  I wouldn't say my read on BBM is discrediting Bibbon's town read, I specifically quoted Bibbon's townread on BBM and explained why I disagreed with it.  For what it matters regarding the more 'recent' things:

Jaybee voting Bibbon is bad in my eyes, pretty much anyone voting Bibbon is bad in my eyes.  Was scum reading him on D1 but claimed jailor makes me not want to lynch him and also makes me more inclined to feel that they are town.

Snike/Athena back and forth is interesting on page 42, definitely worth a read The last post from Snike in particular asks a question to a lot of people commenting on how Athena is sheeping for the most part.  I missed this stuff previously as I wasn't feeling well when i was active at the time and prioritized commenting on the Sully things.

Walrein raises some good thoughts about Marth's claim, but in all honesty I would potentially make that same argument as town his role.  Although I don't think I would have specifically said "Investigative roles would be wasted on me." and would have just commented on people wasting their roles on me.  So I kind of thing the part with him SPECIFYING Investigative is really interesting.  This increase my thoughts on scum Marth by a decent amount.

Speaking of sully I'm starting to dislike their posts, it's been a while since I've seen Sully in a game and the whole claiming bonanza initially had me thinking it was just dumb town but I can't get the Bibbon vote outta my head as basically voting a doctor.

BBM comments on a lot of things I disliked about Kirsche's D1 into D2 play.  If I remember correctly; first when Kirsche voted Bartozio Athena was actually growing in popularity as a wagon, that seems like a bad time to swap for 'consolidation'.  If I remember correctly Kirsche was like 3-5 on the Bart wagon, which I don't call consolidation.  I think that vote hop from Athena to Bart is pretty suspicious.  Moving into other parts about Kirsche D1 play I kind of disagree with the fact that he had multiple posts commenting on other people, while yes he did do that, most of his reads are fairly surface level and generally just 1-2 lines and I don't think that can be classified as massively questioning other people in the game and what not.  I also don't feel he ended up going anywhere with any of the comments he made towards other people or questions he asked towards other people.  This way of defending Kirsche rubs me the wrong way especially since BBM 'wants to find Kirsche scummy'.

@Refa Who's been chainsaw defending Junk?

Awh shit I getta play with Makaze the person I tutored who was better than me like the game I tutored him in. xD

@athena_57's post on page 47 is weird because it basically attacks all of the Kirsche cases without really stating why he shouldn't be voted.  All it does is say "These votes are kinda bad and I don't quite understand/agree(I'm not sure which and they hold different meanings) with them."  Without looking into them first.  I'm also not the biggest fan of his current lynch priority.  Yeah, Zeus needs to be dealt with sooner rather than later but at the moment a lynch on them isn't the best choice I feel.  I'm also not the biggest fan of nightmare/Mack voting thoughts, I think Nightmare's play was scummy but the role seems more town than scum to me,  I don't really wanna rolespec too much though because the role could still be scum.  And although I feel Jaybee is unmemorable Athena links a couple of posts that he stated he 'added' in things for the Jaybee case but realistically he doesn't add much of anything that should add to increasing reasons to vote Jaybee.  Here's what he specifically 'added':

Quote

I wasn't even aware of how bad his early content was tbh (in fact I forgot about it) until I saw BBM's case. I was bothered by Nightmare's "distanced summaries", but this is even worse.
What I'm adding to this is that of all the Bartozio votes, his concerns me the most. All of the votes from nightmare onwards I'll classify as consolidation votes and am thus not bothered by, and all the other votes before mine have been made by people I townread.

Quote

I don't really like JB's earlier post tbh, if inactivity is your best defense then I don't even know what to say, except that scum!you would be perfectly fine with staying offline as long as the wagon your on keeps growing and nobody's questioning you. Than his Bibbon post comes along, I still like his questions to Bibbon tbh, and then he ends with:

(Insert quote from JB here):

Quote

would mostly like some responses to my earlier post wrt bibbon, I feel better about her than I did D1 but not clear yet.

Quote

Where did that come from? You keep asking questions and accusing her, but you feel the need to leave yourself a way out without explaining what makes you feel better? Getting really bad vibes from that line tbh.

Overall for the way Athena was speaking I felt there would be more than this.  Realistically there isn't a whole lot added to the JB case coming from Athena.

Current lynch priority:

Athena > Marth/Omega > JB > Kirsche > BBM > Sully

Walrein is a bet better for me and personally don't really want to lynch Junko, but I think that's more based on gut and the fact that I find other people worse than Junko.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

##Vote: Radicate

He needs to go. Absolutely needs to go. If villa, hit kirsche, but I think this is a hit. I've only skimmed what Refa/athena just said so if anyone has anything important let me know.

[Jaybee]

out of curiosity omega how far in have you read?

also ##Unvote rip my main scumcase for subbing out