Training Mafia 3.0: Advanced - GAMEOVER

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, Fable said:

How do you know my reads are wrong? :thinking: 

Also you really need to get over yourself, I'm not the one that shruglynched satsuma acting like I'm the best ever and can do no wrong. 

The assumption stems from "how well I do today". You were setting yourself up for doing badly, and gave yourself an out to blame everyone else. Assuming you do badly, it will be your fault.

Not going to entertain this further, just going to stick to game related content. Stop insulting people and play the game.

[Athena_57]

2 minutes ago, Fable said:

This is fair although I don't know what about his vote sticks out to you. 

I'm kinda null on him but my brief interaction with him about wagonomics seemed genuine enough. 

Junk voiced clear suspicions. RAD did as well. Both pushes look genuine. Bartozio and Fenrir were consolidation votes.

This leaves Makaze and Mackc as most likely to be scum influence.

[Athena_57]

Mackc also hopped on without bringing up new points (had no real previous suspicion iirc? need to check this) as the wagon gained traction quite quickly.

[Fable]

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

The assumption stems from "how well I do today". You were setting yourself up for doing badly, and gave yourself an out to blame everyone else. Assuming you do badly, it will be your fault.

Not going to entertain this further, just going to stick to game related content. Stop insulting people and play the game.

Should follow your own advice. 

[Makaze]

20 minutes ago, Fable said:

 

I don't think you know what an insult is. 

"I'm always right and i'm not trying to discern your alignment" Is insulting 

"Stop shruglynching and start interacting" Is a wake up call

My immediate PoE is You/Evan/Bart/Athena

 

10 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Who would you like to lynch today, if not me?

Do you plans to case anyone?

@Fable

[Makaze]

My PoE is largely in agreement with Fable's, with one major exception (besides him).

Fable
Bartozio
Mack

Junk
Evan
Fenrir

First three is the most likely team if Fable is Mafia, the others become more likely if Fable is town (and I would be back at square one within PoE instead of any sure locks).

This team is also the only world where scum!Mack does the unprompted switch between Bart as scummy and Bart as town between posts. So I think if Bart flips town, Mack is cleared from unnecessary flipflop townclearing that goes against his cautious playstyle.

Athena would be added if Fable flips town, but is being left out because I do not believe their team is possible with the way athena has been not just questioning but disagreeing with him.

[Athena_57]

So I question Fable and I'm town. Gas. Why didn't I know this earlier?

[Fable]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

So I question Fable and I'm town. Gas. Why didn't I know this earlier?

He did the same thing with Evan lmao. 

According to Mak all you have to do to be a villager in this game is shit on me lmao. 

Also analyzing the satsuma wagon and will have that up in a bit. 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

So I question Fable and I'm town. Gas. Why didn't I know this earlier?

Actually the way you've been disagreeing with him is more indicative lol

Scum distancing usually doesn't read to me as this confrontational, it reads like play acting, with no compromise on either side, just "I see, I see" and then it gets dropped.

[Makaze]

Just now, Fable said:

He did the same thing with Evan lmao. 

According to Mak all you have to do to be a villager in this game is shit on me lmao. 

Also analyzing the satsuma wagon and will have that up in a bit. 

Actually, I don't think Evan is as clear of being in a team with you as I did at EoD. He was firing all over the place and it had no chance to changing the lynch, so I'm not going to give him town cred for it. Anyone can BS in the last hour no matter what they say.

And hard bussing is also a thing if he comes out and cases you again, it's just a matter of whether I believe he is genuine.

[Athena_57]

5 minutes ago, Makaze said:

My PoE is largely in agreement with Fable's, with one major exception (besides him).

Fable
Bartozio
Mack

Junk
Evan
Fenrir

First three is the most likely team if Fable is Mafia, the others become more likely if Fable is town (and I would be back at square one within PoE instead of any sure locks).

This team is also the only world where scum!Mack does the unprompted switch between Bart as scummy and Bart as town between posts. So I think if Bart flips town, Mack is cleared from unnecessary flipflop townclearing that goes against his cautious playstyle.

Athena would be added if Fable flips town, but is being left out because I do not believe their team is possible with the way athena has been not just questioning but disagreeing with him.

Wait Makaze, I'm confused. Are these 2 distinct scumteams, the first team being scum!fable team, the other being the town!fable team or is the first three the most likely, with the others being substitutes if fable flips town? I'm guessing the latter, but please confirm/deny.

Could you also elaborate on the thought on mack-swap, why is specifically this world the place this is possible? This may be on me, but I'm not following the thought.

[Makaze]

@Fable Do you have any plans to case anyone, even as a kind of interaction?

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

@Fable Do you have any plans to case anyone, even as a kind of interaction?

"Fable do you plan on playing WW today?" 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Makaze]

Just now, athena_57 said:

Wait Makaze, I'm confused. Are these 2 distinct scumteams, the first team being scum!fable team, the other being the town!fable team or is the first three the most likely, with the others being substitutes if fable flips town? I'm guessing the latter, but please confirm/deny.

Could you also elaborate on the thought on mack-swap, why is specifically this world the place this is possible? This may be on me, but I'm not following the thought.

They are not distinct. The first is the most likely scum team if Fable is Mafia. If Fable is not Mafia, then the PoE is between those people, but the order is a lot harder to pin down.

Mack and Bart being a team is the only world where I see Mack as scum, so it's pretty much the second one, yeah.

My logic on the Mack swap is that Mack says Bart is tonally off in one post. No one questions him about this, and in his next post he says Nadroj and Bart is town vs town, out of nowhere. When I asked about it, he said he changed his mind after reading the exchange. This is not a smart move for Mafia in itself, and Mack has been very careful about throwing reads, so I do not see how he profits from this if Bart is town and Mack is mafia. So either Mack is town and Bart is Mafia, Mack is mafia and Bart is Mafia (giving him a reason to switch so casually), or Mack is town and Bart is town, and those are the options.

Do you interpret it differently, or what do you see happening if he is Mafia and Bart is town?

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, Fable said:

"Fable do you plan on playing WW today?" 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'll be more explicit.

Who are you going to case in this phase?

Who are you going to ISO? Are you going to post your thoughts about the ISO, with examples?

[Makaze]

Mack's first post:

On 6/17/2018 at 9:33 PM, Mackc2 said:

Guys, guys I have a flawless plan, it's guaranteed to work. 

##vote: Bartozio 

The callout:

On 6/19/2018 at 11:37 PM, Mackc2 said:

Call it a gut feeling but something is tonally off about Bartozio's responses, I can't quite figure out what it is though. I need a bit of time to re-evaluate my reads and see if they are still valid 

His next post after the callout:

On 6/20/2018 at 12:06 AM, Mackc2 said:

I feel like Xan vs Bart is town vs town, I feel if one of them where mafia they would have tried to back down by now especially since their interactions haven't drawn any extra votes their way or started any wagons. 

His response to my question about the change:

On 6/20/2018 at 1:33 AM, Mackc2 said:

I was re-evaluating my thoughts on Fenrir, the conclusion is that his recent posts have more of a town lean. I have my suspicions about Athena but at this point its nothing more than a gut instinct, I haven't started to gather evidence to support it yet. 

I believe Bart is acting more confident than usual, I was not sure if that is scum or town would be more confident but I don't think as scum he would be tunnelling the one issue with Xan. 

 

[Makaze]

Now that I read it again, he did foreshadow that he would re-evaluate.

gdi

I can see that world now, this could be a pocket attempt, and it's possible Bart is not Mafia. (As in his flip isn't clearing.)

My PoE is a lot more fluid with that. I'll be ISOing Fenrir and Bart while I wait for Evan to show up.

[Makaze]

Still not seeing any reason to doubt my Fenrir read other than his actions not really having any impact. Which, I would like to see @Fenrir post a reads list with lynch priority.

Multiple things are bothering me about Bart on reread, but I'll save that for after he posts.

[Makaze]

@Bartozio Should post one as well. There's no excuse for not having one after a lynch.

[Makaze]

Scratch that, Bart had one at EOD before his Satsuma vote.

Update it please, sorry for being rude.

[Mystic Arcanum]

On determining if Athena's first post is more likely to be trying to look proactive or trying to generate responses: they're asking questions pretty consistently throughout their ISO. The main issue I have is with their initial questions, which are barely related to the game and they were very quick to give Xnad a townlean based on his response (and then was also quick to shift to voting Xnad). I still think Athena's initial posts are scummy in a vacuum but the questions at least are in line with what seems to be their general playstyle (based on how in the rest of the ISO they seems to be asking questions about everything they can).

I like EvanManManMan's first post less while rereading just since when I think of why he'd comment on having no reads on page 2 but not do anything towards getting them I struggle to think of why he'd do so as town; I'm reading the rest of his iso now though. Also need to reread Mackc2 and Bartozio as I don't have very strong leanings on them either way and can't remember much of what they posted off the top of my head and look at the Rapier nightkill-from what I recall he was pretty widely townread but not to the extent that some others were.

One thing I really didn't like from EoD:

Rad unvotes SoySoy to "avoid hammer" and doesn't revote when informed there are only three minutes remaining. I can see him doing this as either alignment, but in his final post of the day he's suddenly like "if SoySoy flips town look for scum on that wagon" and it makes it feel a lot like he doesn't want to be caught on it at EoD. Fable has a similar comment on disliking the SoySoy wagon, but Fable was pretty consistent/vocal in his dislike of that wagon beforehand. In Rad's initial vote on SoySoy he asks, "What do you think about things; since your hanging out?" and then he doesn't speak to of reference SoySoy again until those last 3 posts. I think if Rad were town he'd've acknowledged/interacted with SoySoy to some extent after the initial vote. @Makaze, @Fable, and @athena_57, why were you townreading Rad day 1? I'd been assuming Makaze's at least to be a gut/tone read, but upon comparing his tone here to a couple of other games with him I found he's generally more casual/assertive than what I've seen here so far:

https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-mafia-invitational-redux-game-thread-game-over.3629685/page-90 
http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/537/countdown-gg-mafia
http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/556/modified-execution-abandoned

Whereas in this thread he's been more controlled and reserved.

In the Smogon game in particular he's much better with interacting with his scumreads than he was here with SoySoy. I don't have a scumgame of his to compare this to though, so to the three I mentioned above and @RADicate do you think there's another potential explanation for this difference?

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, Fenrir Aesir said:

On determining if Athena's first post is more likely to be trying to look proactive or trying to generate responses: they're asking questions pretty consistently throughout their ISO. The main issue I have is with their initial questions, which are barely related to the game and they were very quick to give Xnad a townlean based on his response (and then was also quick to shift to voting Xnad). I still think Athena's initial posts are scummy in a vacuum but the questions at least are in line with what seems to be their general playstyle (based on how in the rest of the ISO they seems to be asking questions about everything they can).

I like EvanManManMan's first post less while rereading just since when I think of why he'd comment on having no reads on page 2 but not do anything towards getting them I struggle to think of why he'd do so as town; I'm reading the rest of his iso now though. Also need to reread Mackc2 and Bartozio as I don't have very strong leanings on them either way and can't remember much of what they posted off the top of my head and look at the Rapier nightkill-from what I recall he was pretty widely townread but not to the extent that some others were.

One thing I really didn't like from EoD:

Rad unvotes SoySoy to "avoid hammer" and doesn't revote when informed there are only three minutes remaining. I can see him doing this as either alignment, but in his final post of the day he's suddenly like "if SoySoy flips town look for scum on that wagon" and it makes it feel a lot like he doesn't want to be caught on it at EoD. Fable has a similar comment on disliking the SoySoy wagon, but Fable was pretty consistent/vocal in his dislike of that wagon beforehand. In Rad's initial vote on SoySoy he asks, "What do you think about things; since your hanging out?" and then he doesn't speak to of reference SoySoy again until those last 3 posts. I think if Rad were town he'd've acknowledged/interacted with SoySoy to some extent after the initial vote. @Makaze, @Fable, and @athena_57, why were you townreading Rad day 1? I'd been assuming Makaze's at least to be a gut/tone read, but upon comparing his tone here to a couple of other games with him I found he's generally more casual/assertive than what I've seen here so far:

https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-mafia-invitational-redux-game-thread-game-over.3629685/page-90 
http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/537/countdown-gg-mafia
http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/556/modified-execution-abandoned

Whereas in this thread he's been more controlled and reserved.

In the Smogon game in particular he's much better with interacting with his scumreads than he was here with SoySoy. I don't have a scumgame of his to compare this to though, so to the three I mentioned above and @RADicate do you think there's another potential explanation for this difference?

Before I respond, I'd like to hear you present some deeper opinions on the current thread PoE of:

Fable
Evan
Bartozio
Mack

In fact, a whole reads list, with summaries please.

I want an idea of where you stand before I question where I stand based on meta.

[Mystic Arcanum]

1 hour ago, athena_57 said:

I was not prepared for this earlier start (yet appreciate the different time). I have reread the thread, but want to ISO one or two people first before placing a vote and giving a gamestate.

 

In the meantime, since he's online atm:

I'm inclined to put Fenrir in my townleans, his confusion over my RVS strategy appears genuine and I can maybe see that if he was truly put off by it, I would've been his main scumread. I've also been agreeing with him on a lot of points and find it hard to see scum!him commit to the satsuma wagon at phase end when he could've just stayed on me.

That being said, @Fenrir Aesir, I was under the impression you were a pretty experienced player, is reaching during RVS from town really this surprising to you?

I'm not used to seeing it in the way you did. like I can get asking questions about things to try and get them involved, but usually the questions I ask for that purpose are related more to playstyle. The main thing with your initial questions was that they were things like "What does it mean that sb's not shitposting yet?" which was something NAI and so I was like "What's the point of asking about this?"

[Makaze]

You will have to specify which account is RAD there. I don't see any posts by him on either site.

[Fable]

Junk's Satsuma vote I don't super love because it's basically attacking him for the same things people were attacking me for (which probably made me predisposed to sympathize with satsuma in the first place) but that kind of logic has been par for the course this game so not wolfy probably and the same post had decent content about other plays too so can't hate on it too much. 

Mack's vote makes me wanna cry because the advice is good but why tf did that lead to a vote? Like it's kinda how I feel about Mack in general, I can follow his thoughts but then get to his conclusions and am like "why are you doing this to me?" 

Athena's vote bothers me because he should technically know better after that other game and I tried to point that out to him. Actually his vote highlights what the problem with the satsuma wagon was. Why would wolf actively refuse to do stuff in the face of so much pressure like that? It's throwing from a wolf PoV, if it happened on later days then yes it's a problem but d1? I don't see how what satsuma was doing was that unreasonable or wolfy. 

Mak's vote was lazy af and I just see it as "let me get this mislynch since I can't get Fable's so I'll get the one person kinda defending him." Maybe I'm tunneling but idec at this point. I don't know how satsuma's lynch got so much more information when we were kinda in the same boat so it doesn't come across as authentic reasoning to me. 

Bart's vote I actually think is the worst. Because he actually acknowledges Satsuma was playing similar but votes him anyway and his votes in gneral have been very lazy to me. 

Fen I don't think is a wolf because he got on the wagon very very late and I don't know why a wolf would need to do that when satsuma's lynch was already guaranteed. It's a bad vote for no reason and just looked like consolidation.  

 So Bart>Mak>Athena>Mack>Junk>Fen IMO.