I think Chrom will never win a CYL

[IEatLasers]

Just a fun analysis I was doing on it (not super scientific or anything) 

 

But Chrom I think has literally a 0% chance to win. For one his legendary is now out so he has no momentum 
 

but the major reason is that votes jump around. Being 4th won’t help because think of 2 to 3. Hector votes went to Eliwood, pulling Eliwood from deep down into the top 2. 
 

With Hector and Eliwood and Ephraim gone, the OG fans are going to jump to Seliph, who will then get in likely with Byleth who is now getting all the 3H focus since house lords are gone.  Then Sigurd and Marth and then, it’s been 2 years and they will want Lief since Sigurd and Seliph are in, and of course this is CYL 7 now snd Chrom is neither new/relevant or “Old school FE” is his support is dead if it isn’t already for 5 but going further, by CYL 8 we will likely have a new FE Game with many new characters and like 3H it’ll sweep 

Chrom May get no votes for 5 rendering this moot 

and since CYL could end at any time we can’t guarantee he ever makes it. 
 

I like Chrom but it’s interesting to me that a character who was too the entire time may actually never make it in. (And again, CYL 5 May prove to be his end now that his hype is gone) 

 

much of this comes from how every site and forum I see Chrom is called a potato and said to be very boring or unpopular. I disagree That he’s boring for many reasons, but still literally everything I see (even smash bros boards I’ve seen say nobody plays Chrom on-line) says nobody likes him at least anymore. Which is sad but again, kinda interesting. 

[Jotari]

Aren't the first and last poll options virtually the same thing?

[Icelerate]

6 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Aren't the first and last poll options virtually the same thing?

What if the game goes on for eternity?

[Jotari]

2 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

What if the game goes on for eternity?

But CYL won't? Get real. We need to keep voting until Bloom wins!

Edited April 25, 2020 by Jotari

[IEatLasers]

26 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Aren't the first and last poll options virtually the same thing?

I guess I meant “there will always be someone more popular” versus “He would win CYL 10 but the game gets shut down first” which is what it seems most people believe! 

[Seazas]

He won't and I'm perfectly fine with that. There's better choices anyway.

[Humanoid]

Classic middle-child syndrome. 😛

Personally I like Chrom better than any of the other sword lords that have yet to win CYL, but yeah, I don't think he's getting in, even after the recent saturation of Marths. It's a shame because it's shown he's far more willing to switch out to more interesting weapons compared to most (same with Leif to be fair), and therefore is by default less boring.

Now, all that said, I'd still rather just about any other non-sword character - whether lord or not - win CYL because of the inherent risk of another sword alt. So in terms of the bigger picture, Chrom is far down the list for me if we ignore the reality of lord-bias.

[Sayyyaka]

Meanwhile, Niime has a 90% chance to become our CYL queen within the next decade.

[Zeo]

Between Marth, Seliph, M!Byleth and Leif, Chrom's best shot is in 2022 assuming the game is still kicking at that point, which is sad as I like Chrom but yeah. I'll be shocked if he wins before the game croaks. That being said, even with the the escalation of powercreep and the game's inevitable decline, I hope it doesn't go anywhere anytime soon.

[GenealogyOfTheHolyValflame]

Marth first, Chrom later. I will rage if marth doesn't win cyl before the game shuts down. He's been gimped 2 times in a row, he deserves to win.

[Jotari]

3 hours ago, Zeo said:

Between Marth, Seliph, M!Byleth and Leif, Chrom's best shot is in 2022 assuming the game is still kicking at that point, which is sad as I like Chrom but yeah. I'll be shocked if he wins before the game croaks. That being said, even with the the escalation of powercreep and the game's inevitable decline, I hope it doesn't go anywhere anytime soon.

Wow. 2022 sounds like this far off future year with robots and stuff when reality it's right around the corner. I'm evidently still not used to this whole decade shifting thing.

[Hilda]

If anything i think they shouldnt do a CYL online Voting at all.

If anything they should do a massiv voting gauntlet over weeks with eliminations to pick the  4 CYL winners. One F one M.

That way only people who really play Heroes can actually influence the outcome

[Jotari]

4 minutes ago, Hilda said:

If anything i think they shouldnt do a CYL online Voting at all.

If anything they should do a massiv voting gauntlet over weeks with eliminations to pick the  4 CYL winners. One F one M.

That way only people who really play Heroes can actually influence the outcome

Why even separate things based on gender?

[Fabulously Olivier]

I think Robin has a better chance of winning than Chrom, tbh. And I'm not even saying that because they are in both gender pools. I mean male Robin is more likely to win than Chrom. 

 

As for either of their chances (or Marth's), it will depend on when the next game is announced. Any new games or remakes will cause recency bias that will upset the polls. 

 

I also don't think that Seliph will take it. If any male Jugdral character takes the prize, it will be Reinhardt, full stop.

[Othin]

2 minutes ago, Etheus said:

I also don't think that Seliph will take it. If any male Jugdral character takes the prize, it will be Reinhardt, full stop.

Seliph got three times as many votes as Reinhardt on CYL4. I think he's better positioned at this point, especially if he keeps not getting other alts.

[Etrurian emperor]

I wouldn't be all that heartbroken if Chrom never gets a brave alt. He's fine but also pretty unexciting, even by lord standards. 

However I give him a very decent shot. Chrom has always been in the top five if I recall and now the obvious competition already got their victory. Seliph reaching such a high spot was somewhat of a freak accident while with Chrom it was just continuing the usual pattern. 

[Othin]

4 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I wouldn't be all that heartbroken if Chrom never gets a brave alt. He's fine but also pretty unexciting, even by lord standards. 

However I give him a very decent shot. Chrom has always been in the top five if I recall and now the obvious competition already got their victory. Seliph reaching such a high spot was somewhat of a freak accident while with Chrom it was just continuing the usual pattern. 

Seliph wasn't a freak accident. He's currently the only lord who's only gotten a Gen 1 version. As long as that continues, more and more FE4 fans will want him to get an updated one. It's the same reason Alm jumped up so much from CYL2 to decisively win CYL3: at that point, he hadn't gotten any alts since his old base version. And why Eliwood jumped up a bunch in CYL3 as well, since he'd gotten a seasonal but no legendary before that. Meanwhile, Chrom and Eirika have failed to break into the finals because they've been getting plenty of other alts, including very CYL-like ones.

Whether or not Seliph does well in CYL5 won't be random, it'll depend on if he gets any more versions (particularly a legendary) in the meantime.

[Nym]

That's a weird way to pronounce Marth.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I think Chrom is more likely than people think. Another FE game, whether it be a new one or a remake, won't git until *after* CYL 5. In which case, Marth is all but guaranteed to win, with either Chrom or Seliph coming in 2nd. Weren't Chrom and Seliph only, what, two votes apart in CYL 4? If Seliph gets an alt this year, his votes will dip slightly; he'll remain Top 10, maybe Top 5, but it'll be a dip nonetheless. If Seliph doesn't get an alt this year, however, he'll get 2nd, Chrom will get 3rd, and Chrom will have to wait until CYL 6.

[IEatLasers]

8 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I think Chrom is more likely than people think. Another FE game, whether it be a new one or a remake, won't git until *after* CYL 5. In which case, Marth is all but guaranteed to win, with either Chrom or Seliph coming in 2nd. Weren't Chrom and Seliph only, what, two votes apart in CYL 4? If Seliph gets an alt this year, his votes will dip slightly; he'll remain Top 10, maybe Top 5, but it'll be a dip nonetheless. If Seliph doesn't get an alt this year, however, he'll get 2nd, Chrom will get 3rd, and Chrom will have to wait until CYL 6.

With Seliph being so high, his fans from team Sigurd will realize they can work together. Chrom has no hope of beating Seliph no because other Fan bases  can realize to work together but Chrom and robin have been and always will split votes. 
 

and as I’ve been saying, Chrom has almost always been top 5...but specifically 4. He isn’t rising because he isn’t gaining more votes. 
 

after Dimitri won, there are 70,000 more votes shuffling around. That’s enough to beat Chrom 6 times. Chrom being in 4th doesn’t matter because the people in 1st will never, ever, switch and vote Chrom. 
 

58 minutes ago, Etheus said:

I think Robin has a better chance of winning than Chrom, tbh. And I'm not even saying that because they are in both gender pools. I mean male Robin is more likely to win than Chrom. 

 

As for either of their chances (or Marth's), it will depend on when the next game is announced. Any new games or remakes will cause recency bias that will upset the polls. 

 

I also don't think that Seliph will take it. If any male Jugdral character takes the prize, it will be Reinhardt, full stop.

I disagree with that. Chrom is more popular than robin according to most polls, and Chrom will always have main character Bias that (despite common speech often having us say) only he actually has. 

[Etrurian emperor]

25 minutes ago, Othin said:

Seliph wasn't a freak accident. He's currently the only lord who's only gotten a Gen 1 version. As long as that continues, more and more FE4 fans will want him to get an updated one.

In other words Seliph reached that high spot due to special circumstances which might not be present next time. If he does get an alt this year then there's already a high chance of Seliph failing to replicate his success. 

[Othin]

12 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

In other words Seliph reached that high spot due to special circumstances which might not be present next time. If he does get an alt this year then there's already a high chance of Seliph failing to replicate his success. 

Sure. In particular, the way I see it, Seliph is currently better positioned to win CYL than Chrom, but that'll change if Seliph gets a legendary version before doing so.

[IEatLasers]

23 minutes ago, Othin said:

Sure. In particular, the way I see it, Seliph is currently better positioned to win CYL than Chrom, but that'll change if Seliph gets a legendary version before doing so.

In which case, Sigurd wins this year and Seliph wins next year instead. Yeah either way, Chrom doesn’t get in 

[Othin]

34 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

In which case, Sigurd wins this year and Seliph wins next year instead. Yeah either way, Chrom doesn’t get in 

No, that wouldn't make Sigurd likely to win CYL5. Especially if he gets some sort of alt himself in the meantime, which I think is plenty likely. And none of that would make Seliph better poised than Chrom to win CYL6.

[Book Bro]

Maybe if there's an Awakening remaster and CYL is still a thing. Can't say I'm bummed about it since he's my least favourite lord after Corrin but it must be awful to be a Marth or Chrom fan voting in CYL.

I mean, anything could happen and since it's unlikely that any new games will come out before the next CYL, they could both win, but I think Robin and Seliph will be strong competition.