BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I won't be here for a large portion of tomorrow. Should be back for phase end, but just giving a warning. Manix, you've mainly just engaged in a lot of speculation about the SK's possible abilities and why we're in LYLO. Who do you think is scummiest? You mentioned something about Elie not having mentioned you much throughout the game, which is true, but does it make you think he's the SK? You didn't really reach any sort of conclusion with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well here's the problem because I can't decide whether it's Elie or JB. Elie had the aforementioned random block target and the lack of mentioning me throughout the game, however something about JB and his push on Mancer is raising warning signs now. Given how sure I was on JB being town because of his irrational push means not much anymore because the third could have pushed on Mancer and made it seem like an honest mistake, and still get rid of the doc to help later on. I had a set of possible actions for a hypothetical odd night SK!Elie, but the one thing that tipped me off that was the N4 roleblock on him/N2 Mancer doc with xinny dead kinda made me feel otherwise. Something about this whole thing is tipping me to say it's actually JB. Seeing as how I'm cleaning right now, I don't have time to go look at ISO's, but I will at some point today because yes we are running out of time. (something else I just thought: JB being a BP SK variant could make this situation LYLO because it wouldn't matter who he shot, even BBM.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well, how would BPV SK win if we nolynch? It would be potential LYLO at best, with him winning if I chose to take someone else down with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 remember the whole doublevote/daykill/whatever thing the fact is, whoever it is, if we NL they will win. it shouldn't matter who they target in theory, but I'm not the hosts. that said the fact it's 3/1 LYLO means that the hosts must be factoring in something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Oh I thought you were talking about just a BPV SK by itself. I still feel like it's Elie. SK going really hard after the Doc makes even less sense than mafia going really hard after the Doc. If the mafia can get the Doc lynched, making one guy look bad to do it isn't that big a deal because they have other people. SK going hard after the Doc is just putting himself in a really bad position with no backup, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 sorry for not being around i got waifu emblem yesterday ... I really don't know how 3/1 makes LYLO, unless we have something retarded like a 1-member cult or something. If there were a daykill I don't see why it wouldn't already have been used, say, on Lucina D3 or something to make the SK look town. I can believe doublevoter/odd night kill, since that WOULD mean a game over, but it's a lot of rolespec. ... I was going to say something about it being between BBM/Elie but Manix/scorri claiming Miller D1 would have been the perfect way to prevent being inspected by darros fuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 assuming manix is indeed the third party then lol fml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 JB I return to the point I made earlier: If I was the third, why would I push on a effectively confirmed maf, putting myself at what would be 4/1 D7 and a numbers disadvantage, instead of just lynching Kay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunwoo Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 You guys have 3 hours and 43 minutes left. Also, minor phase end error: this state doesn't observe DST. Phase end is 5:30 PST or 6:30 MST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So uhhhh I got ripped on last game for voting early at LYLO even though I didn't really see what the issue was personally, so I'm not going to vote yet, but I still feel more confident in SK!Elie. We need three votes for lynching either way though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So uhhhh I got ripped on last game for voting early at LYLO even though I didn't really see what the issue was personally You leave it open to for scum to quickhammer is why. You had bonus points for fully acknowledging the problem but yet still doing it. anyway I never did those ISO's rip me but i just wanna note that I don't know if JB will even be around for phase end and he doesn't have a vote down so. that'd force NL I think and that's the last thing we want. i'm probably gonna go with JB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 like it'd force NL because if we wanted to lynch Elie we couldn't etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I did it because I also acknowledged that my vote would be there even at phase end so at worst it'd just be giving the mafia the win earlier than they would have gotten it anyways. I probably would have done the same as town too (though whether I'd have been alive for LYLO if I were town in that game is another question). But whatever, arguing it is pointless. Manix are you going to be here for phase end? Because if you're going for JB only because we might not have everyone here to lynch Elie, then we can still wait for JB to come back and lynch him if he's not there. Of course, if you think that JB is worse that's different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 it's both honestly, so and yes I should be around for phase end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elieson Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ugh ill be here too, and I'd still really rather see JB lynched over anyone else at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Manix, why do you think a third would be more likely to go after the Doc than mafia would? It really doesn't make sense to me, which is why I still prefer Elieson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 did you see what I did with Mancer and how no one is giving me shit for it oh look there's your answer. notice that JB was also doing it, but the second point to that is he started having second thoughts maybe because it would have looked bad. :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i'm gone after this bc school so i'm just going to throw everything onto gut instinct and ##Vote: Elie i don't feel confident about anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 well then. time to figure out who is the culprit. BBM we need to start bouncing ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 so BBM: thoughts on the N2 kill not being Mancer, but instead Xinny? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Like I said earlier, I think that the mafia didn't kill Mancer on N2 because people like JB were still pressuring him for looking scummy, and they thought he wasn't an immediate threat. There was also no other outed PR at the time, so no real haste to kill Mancer right away, so they could have just waited to see if he got himself lynched off. Plus they had a Hooker waiting who could disable Mancer when a PR did out itself. Meanwhile Xinny looked pretty townie, so they just killed her instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elieson Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also to note: Mancer looked pretty scummy (as he got lynched anyway) so it's possible non-town parties just assumed that he'd get himself lynched regardless? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 okay. I was gonna say "explain why they didn't hook him that night" but then I remembered that Shinori blocked Baldrick that night so. that makes sense but then how does one explain how we are in LYLO? idek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also, I can't speak from the perspective of other people but I didn't push you for being a part of the Mancer lynch because I had a townread on your slot from Sho going after Scorri to your pro-town play on D3. And IIRC I initially had a scumread on JB on D3 because of his tunneling, so I really don't think that an ITP would be so cavalier about going gung-ho after the Doc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 and yet you dropped your scumread on JB? why exactly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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