Tyne-Wear Mafia - Where Are They Now? Special Bonus 2016 Update

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

No time for education, it's just a little complication.

Quotes are scummy, and I still haven't reread Shin and have no recollection of anything he's done, which is a bad sign of the scum under pressure flaking variety. My sense of time might be dilated though, so would still prefer an SB lynch.

Still think kirsche might be scum, and if so, Refa is totally scum with him. Refa reads as town from sheer contribution, so idk really.

Really what tips me off about SB is that his posting pattern and effort read as just doing what's needed to not appear scummy. Safe would be a word. Additionally, despite being a leading wagon, he's not really addressing it, which reminds me of what I do as scum (do town things and hope it goes away).

On the other hand, Randa is here to defend. I was waffling earlier since there are points to be made about his lack of generated content, but to me he sounded like it might be genuine potato. The claim and posts around it sound particularly town.

Rapier is scummy for pushing bad logic.

Yeah someone replaced Strawman or something.

Day 1 for a large really needs to be longer than 3 days. Shrinking it as the bodies pile on is good too, but it's waaaaaaaay to short to do anything other than lynch like the second wagon (the first being the RVS wagon, of course). To begin with, it takes like a day for RVS to get through everyone's system, and then when it cools off and stuff starts developing, suddenly, 24 hours left in the phase! And then we get situations like these where no one is close to being lynched, but we have to consolidate so we don't make the best decisions. In other mafia games on other sites, Day 1 was typically 2-3 weeks, and Day 1 is never boring so plenty of stuff happened. Really a week is not too much to ask for and I think y'all will like the change.

Something something something

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Yeah and there's a ton of people who are in range of just barely on the plane of existence.

[Parrhesia]

lmao you aren't getting a fucking week

One more day, and that's generous.

[Strawman]

To be honest an extension is only worth it if people who don't exist come back. Even then if they haven't kept up with the thread they won't be able to contribute enough to make it worthwhile.

But it'd make our vote happen at least.

What is it like 3 hours to phase end now?

[Parrhesia]

to explain myself: day one is the least Fully Sick of days and to draw it on much longer would be decidedly out of the spirit of the game - but democracy is in fact Fully Sick, and inactivity of multiple posters is fairly valid as a reason.

[Parrhesia]

it is twenty-eight hours and twenty minutes to cutoff

[Strawman]

Well, scratch my whole post.

[Prims]

i'm not even going to be here for more of tomorrow

extension probably wasn't even necessary but whatever

##Unvote

##Vote: Paper, though his first post was padded and wagoning him will be the best way to make him talk.

I'm OK with Randa getting dead now and not later so he won't be a scapegoat for scum to mislynch later down the line. Lame, but optimal play-wise. Also my townreads aren't infallible.

[Prims]

*thought his

[Refa]

I still have to reread Randa so :/

I'll better justify it later unless I REALLY think he's town

Why do you need to justify your vote later on? I don't like how you're voting Randa based on POE and not even trying to get one of your scumreads lynched.

Anyways of the three potential wagons I will not vote myself. Nope won't do it. I feel like shin has kinda tunneled rapier, only to be tunneled by rapier, which given the amount of like content we have and my own problems scum hunting I can't really hold it against him or say its inherently scummy. SB, why is he a wagon again?

OK, Shin and Rapier are tunneling each other...but what reads are you getting out of this? Also maybe this is just me, but it seems weird to single out SB for his Shin vote when there are several other people (HI-I) on his wagon who are more likely to be on.

The Paper turbolynch idea is kind of a null tell at the moment; if Paper latter flipped scum, then I'd say Randa would be confirmed town though (because him suggesting a turbolynch on a scum buddy would be ludicrous and dumb).

So this was the major reason why I had a null on FFM early in the phase. I find it's easier to read him the further into the game you go and it's very easy to do at the end of day 1. In games that I've read or played on with him, I have noticed that he will drop off on activity from the middle-end portion of the phase as if to distance himself from any possible mislynch. This is exactly what he did in reclass and for some reason he got through the rest of the game doing the same thing.

Honestly, I think FFM's activity levels are a lot worse as town than as scum (see: Conspiracy, where he literally claimed Miller and did fuck all until he subbed out). Either way, a lack of activity from him is sadly not telling in either alignment.

I'm vanilla so I don't think that changes literally anything.

For what it's worth, I can confirm the existence of vanillas and I think it would be incredibly unlikely for town to have just one vanilla so I can buy his claim.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

lmao you aren't getting a fucking week

One more day, and that's generous.

I wasn't talking to you

[Refa]

Really what tips me off about SB is that his posting pattern and effort read as just doing what's needed to not appear scummy. Safe would be a word. Additionally, despite being a leading wagon, he's not really addressing it, which reminds me of what I do as scum (do town things and hope it goes away).

Rapier is scummy for pushing bad logic.

While I can see where you're coming from the first part of your SB read (him doing just enough to not be considered scummy), I don't really agree with the second part (him not addressing cases on him); admittedly I didn't pay attention to his responses to other people, but he did write out a full blown response to my case on him. Also I don't think that ignoring cases on yourself is necessarily scummy (I'd say it's anti-town though).

Don't really get where you're coming from WRT Rapier?

I'm OK with Randa getting dead now and not later so he won't be a scapegoat for scum to mislynch later down the line. Lame, but optimal play-wise. Also my townreads aren't infallible.

Still don't like this philosophy. ;/ A mislynch now is not particularly better than a mislynch later.

[Refa]

FFM, I see you lurking. Do something!

[FrostyFireMage]

There's a lot of stuff I have to read, gosh :/

[Refa]

Read through Randa/Shin/SB's ISO's for starters (seeing as how they're all the leading wagons) instead of going through the whole thread.

[Strawman]

But also we have lots o time(kind of) so we don't have to be as limited anymore.

[Refa]

That's true but I don't think there's anything wrong with having an opinion on all of the major wagons as a starting point.

[CT075]

Holy shit extension

I am literally on my phone while standing in a line before getting on a plane right now so I won't say much (nor am I available until after tomorrow... aka once the day's over anyway)

The pblade turbolynch idea looks like a terrible one because from skims all of the current wagons sre fine. Tbh (I forget who the leading wagon was at the time) i think that's scum getting desperate

Leaving vote there

[FrostyFireMage]

Hard to read Randa. He's been one of the most active players despite having the largest wagon on him (I think he would be less active if he was trying to avoid getting lynched as scum - although that's mostly me assuming) and advocates a Paper turbolynch despite being likely to be lynched himself (if he wanted to avoid getting lynched today he would vote for one of the other wagons - what would he have to gain from suggesting an unexpected move like voting Paper?).

...But then later he goes back on his Paper vote in order to go after another large wagon pretty much doing a 180 on his statement seemingly because his Paper ploy fell flat. That's a scummy move right there. Mayhaps he is frantic scum?

Shin is hard to read too but that's because Shin. The sudden turn around with Rapier is kinda weird but jumpy Shin is jumpy, plus I'm questioning the benefit of doing such a thing as scum because all he's doing is drawing attention to himself. His only reads were on Weapons/Rapier for a while but admittedly the game has just started and there's really not much activity. How he dismissed Rapier's point as "lol kneejerk" and the whole "if I were scum I would have done that instead" thing feels self-conscious (if that makes sense) but I still think Randa's scummier.

Feeling better about SB now that he's been posted more. His wariness of Refa doesn't really sound like scummy behavior due to it being a pretty odd case to follow up with.

##Unvote

##Vote: Randa

[charlie_]

I woke up early and then no phase end after all. I HOPE YOU'RE ALL HAPPY.

Randa proposing a turbolynch after last game seems really questionnable to me and really the suspicion is way too weak to drive a lynch based on it. His hope onto me because it's the most likely to get a lynch is also basically distancing himself from playing any part in it and a questionable decision at best considering I was the wagon with the least votes. I'm null on the vanilla claim at this stage, but I'm kinda curious as to why BBM's reaction to the vanilla claim seems less pronounced than usual?

@Weapons: I did address the votes on me as well as I could. Two of them are inactive and one of them is you, who's kind of hard to defend against based on style. Strawman and Randa only voted after I went asleep. I can kind of see what you mean on effort levels but there's a lot of noise in this thread that just doesn't give me anything readswise and it's kind of screwing with me.

I'm kinda eh on Prims atm? I feel like the way he goes about his Randa read is kind of awkward considering how he becomes indifferent to the lynch and I'm kinda confused why he didn't try and push an actual counterwagon to save his townread instead of Paperblade? It just seems kinda odd to me, even if you try and justify it with it being optimal play or w/e.

Refa looks a bit better than he did earlier, he feels generally more involved in the game and motivated to make things happen. Not suspicious of the slot anymore. FFM's content is okay now but I'd like to see if his only reads are on the major wagons or if that's just what he went to look at first.

##Unvote
##Vote: Randa

I feel better on this than with Shin now I guess.

[Belisarius]

I don't agree with much if any of the reasoning against Shin. He's the least suspicious of the three getting bandwagoned.

Randa has a ton of posts. Many are completely superfluous, many are counter to the arguments for lynching him. The paper vote was interesting, but made no sense for the time it was cast.

SB I'm not even sure about. He doesn't seem as active as he was in Reclass, but it's the first day and the first day sucks. I don't like his Randa read but it doesn't come off as forced. Many of his questions to other players show some intent to help the town.

Between these candidates I think Randa is the best lynch.

##Vote Randa

[Belisarius]

##Unvote

Didn't see the two Randa votes above me and mine would put him at L1. No sense in wasting the extension if other people wanted it.

[charlie_]

If you don't like my Randa read then why would you vote for Randa?

[Blitz]

okay, starting things up and I must say catching up is a pain (and forget rereading, reading itself is a pain)

Starting up with

@Cam

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3255441

who was this post aimed at? (me or Randa?)

@Marth, I have no problems with you calling my case on Weapons "easy", cause tbh, I am not smart enough to build a case that isn't easy, but how exactly do you call it "forced"?

About Randa,

in this game, Randa started off doing the exacts same thing he did in Reclass. I don't like how he had to be called out to post, but then again, after he started posting, it seemed to me like "he finally realized how to play" which can go for either alignment(note: I do not agree with Prims saying something like Randa is a townie who tripped before starting optimal play), so, I started null reading him instead of scum reading him. But after what BBM pointed out, I would have to agree with BBM that Randa's overall play hasn't really been much intended to find scum. (I am pretty much agreeing with all scummy stuff said about him.) Meta wise speaking, Randa's play looks like the complete opposite of what he did in Reclass (but it started being that way after the attacks on him) and it kinda seems to me like he intentionally changed his play to get away with it this time more than his play changed because of change in alignment.

However, I do agree with Strawman that I have scumread him multiple times when he was a townie, so, it can be the same for Randa, but I am still more inclined to think Randa is scum.

okay this is a fun question

is it just me, or did Domu turn the tables around (from people wanting him lynched) with this post

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3258205

About FFM, Reclass ending did not help cause he did pretty much the same thing in conspiracy too

well, actually, I think early play is less more like Conspiracy and less like Reclass, cause in Reclass he seemed to at least attempt to not looking scummy unlike Conspiracy. However his play right now looks a lot more like Reclass like Randa said (but then again, he did nothing in Conspiracy). So, null reading him atm.

I also cannot quite agree with Prims' case on him cause that post did not look like it was casting doubt on Rapier to me, but I do think he needs to post more so that I can get better reads on him (look whose talking, lol)

I would like to see someone make a better case though which I might sheep (personally, I think it is impossible for me)

@Weapons, I was expecting you to say exactly what you said here (okay, fine, I expected it a lot earlier than you did and it should be good to note that it was pretty much Rapier's vote that made you do so),

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49064&view=findpost&p=3255036

but care to out some actual alignment based reads off of this?

also, can you out what you actually expected it to do other than moving the game forward? (I know for a fact you don't start up random stuff without actually expecting a specific type of result)

@Strawman, if you could lynch someone of your choice, who would it be and why?

also, I will be taking a break, I am slow as it is and if I want to do analysis on the other 2 wagons, it will take too long, but fun fact, the game almost came into a hammer anyways without the extension, lol.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

These Randa votes are seriously making me reconsider, so I reread a bit.

So I have a couple problems particularly with the second post. Especially the bolded portion in the first quote you give us reasons we should mass claim today, ignoring the fact that the mechanics state scum has fake claims, but in the bolded part you say you don't wan them at all. Why would you bring it up and argue for doing it, if you don't want it?

And this is really throwing me off. On one hand, the mechanics (at least the OP) does not state scum has fake claims. On the other, if scum have claims, why claim vanilla?