Makaze
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Posts posted by Makaze
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8 minutes ago, Refa said:
Generally on SF, mayors disable on *YLO. If his role worked in *YLO, he'd be confirmed town with these numbers.
Also I asked and if the gamestate is 5/1/1 and becomes 2/1/1 tomorrow, it's not considered *YLO even though town is probably fucked...
That's because it's possible the two anti-town factions haven't learned who each other are yet, and you'd be starting the Day lynching people with essentially 4 people actually trying to read the others.
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Just now, Refa said:
Evan doesn't have an extra shot though.
I was asking if he did and never got an answer. Where did he say this?
Yeah then I can't mechanically clear it then, but I'll clear him for my other reasons. Just trying to make it easier on people who disagree.
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Now that *YLO has been brought up, I've talked to the mods and confirmed that it's based on whether or not town mechanically can win in this scenario.
Since we are not in *YLO, we can confirm that the numbers are 5/1/1 at 7 alive. If they were 4/2/1, we would be at *YLO even without extra anti-town KP.
That means we can mechanically confirm Evan is not anti-town. If the numbers are 5/1/1 at 7 alive and anti-town had another KP, we would be in *YLO right now.
So, purely mechanically, if EvanManManMan has an extra shot, he is cleared as town. If he is lying about it, we can easily confirm this, and lynch him tomorrow for lying, when we are actually in *YLO.
So please get off of his case, for the last time.
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4 minutes ago, Killthestory said:
oh.
please read and actually post, don't fail me now
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2 minutes ago, Killthestory said:
wow holy fuck we're in mylo
why are we lynching a mayor in mylo when if theyre scum, mafia always kill them? that makes no sense. scum NEVER DON'T KILL AN OUTTED MAYOR IF HE'S TOWN. like come on, this is basic shit.
the way fable responded to omega just now iz wolfy af. looks like fable knows omega is town based off this, and i dont think omega is a mafia to counteract this theory.
makaze hasnt done anything he did previously. hes fine imo, dont lynch there.
you all know how i am on refa.
evan and baldrick i dont lynch. i dont know if evan's wolf game got better, but he's always struck me as more serious as wolf. i think he's a loose cannon villa here, and i already explained baldrick
actually i think fable correctly knows omega is itp
and omega knows i am cleared so it literally is throwing, hes not even arguing im not cleared. hes saying lynch me in spite of literal mod clears because "my pool sucks". thats throwing the game
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1 minute ago, Killthestory said:
wow holy fuck we're in mylo
why are we lynching a mayor in mylo when if theyre scum, mafia always kill them? that makes no sense. scum NEVER DON'T KILL AN OUTTED MAYOR IF HE'S TOWN. like come on, this is basic shit.
the way fable responded to omega just now iz wolfy af. looks like fable knows omega is town based off this, and i dont think omega is a mafia to counteract this theory.
makaze hasnt done anything he did previously. hes fine imo, dont lynch there.
you all know how i am on refa.
evan and baldrick i dont lynch. i dont know if evan's wolf game got better, but he's always struck me as more serious as wolf. i think he's a loose cannon villa here, and i already explained baldrick
dude
keep reading. if you don't reply to the newest information and this is your last post i'm going back to lynching you
please don't do this to me
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Two people asked me for these. Truly, I am the greatest non-player of all time.
Baldrick (2): Refa, Makaze
Fable (2): EvanManManMan, Omega
Omega (1): Fable
Refa (1): KillthestoryNot Voting: Baldrick
You have until time runs out on this thing left in the day phase, need 3 to lynch, and 5 to hammer.
formatted for better reading
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16 minutes ago, Makaze said:
You're not going to get an answer dude. Even if you think he's town, you've got to realize his style at this point. He's just going to say "He's not the one who has tried to lynch such and such, so I'm not going to lynch him even if it costs me the game". i.e. he's throwing on principle, playing favourites instead of playing to win
8 minutes ago, Omega. said:lel
Ok. Mak/Fable today for posting the worst pools thus far.
Think you're likelier V than the others. Let's make a voteblock. I'm between Mak/Fable atm for worst pools, Evan I'm not crazy about but let's see what he says. Refa played the best game and I don't lynch him before the other 3. I know you want Refa Kill, but talk to me about others.
Out for real for real.
QFT. That really didn't take long.
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If he did not, then nix that. Lynching Baldrick better. Also more likely to gain actual content from him as a lynch target.
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Proposal:
We lynch Omega today and vig Baldrick tonight.
@EvanManManMan Provided you were allowed to bet last night (on kills not your own vigs)? Were you? Did you win another vig?
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1 minute ago, Fable said:
Makaze is literally confirmed not a wolf.
You're just throwing now.
Or he's the ITP and is refusing to lynch within his Mafia pool. It fits that win con. Also explains the lack of modkill.
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Just now, Omega. said:
lel
Ok. Mak/Fable today for posting the worst pools thus far.
Think you're likelier V than the others. Let's make a voteblock. I'm between Mak/Fable atm for worst pools, Evan I'm not crazy about but let's see what he says. Refa played the best game and I don't lynch him before the other 3. I know you want Refa Kill, but talk to me about others.
Out for real for real.
@Refa, explain to me how this reason for wanting me lynched is town motivated. Explain to me in the words Omega isn't using, since you seem to get where he's coming from as a town who is trying to win.
I'm not being rhetorical. Read this post and explain it to me like I'm 5. Please.
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2 minutes ago, Refa said:
Okay, let me know what you're thinking here. Why are you so confident on Baldrick?
You're not going to get an answer dude. Even if you think he's town, you've got to realize his style at this point. He's just going to say "He's not the one who has tried to lynch such and such, so I'm not going to lynch him even if it costs me the game". i.e. he's throwing on principle, playing favourites instead of playing to win
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1 minute ago, Omega. said:
I am not lynching Kill.
I am not lynching Baldrick.
Not today. If that happens, it will be without me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't want to lynch there, and won't.
More obviously evident is that there is no way in fuck that Fable/Mak/Refa/Evan are all V. I do not know what any of them are doing right now.
Let's hear what Evan says, I want to see his case.
They are all V. The PoE is an ITP and a Mafia between Kill/Omega/Baldrick.
It's not going to happen how you want. End of story.
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1 minute ago, Omega. said:
Someone is fairly deep.
That someone being Baldrick as opposed to like you/Refa/Fable/Evan is a hard sell. I mean him no offense, but I think this gamestate points to a more experienced wolf/ITP. I think Kill is V too.
Or... it points to someone riding by on an early clear with no later re-analysis or pressure. Which seems far more likely to me, than someone being amazing at deep wolfing here. Because no matter who the deep is, they can't control the actions of other Mafia members.
If it's not Baldrick, then it's Kill. I'm pretty sure it's Baldrick atm.
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9 minutes ago, Baldrick said:
@Makaze In order to edit the post, the format is fucked. Deal with it, I can only spoonfeed you so much.
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Day 2.Iris does votals again, thanks SB
RADicate (4): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2
Omega (3): Walrein, eclipse
athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
Zkirsche (2): RADicate, Mackc2
Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
eclipse (1): Makaze
Jaybee (1): Via
Shinori (1): WeaponsNot Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully
You have ~17 hours left in the day. With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.
Note the way mafia are voting right now. If Junko is the member they want to keep alive above all else.
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Day 2.Almost to the end
Junko (6): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse
athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
eclipse (1): Makaze
Jaybee (1): Via
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Weapons
Zkirsche (1): JunkoNot Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully
You have ~11.5 hours left in the day. With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.
This is a pretty decisive move in regards to their ace in the hole.
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Day 2.yawn
Junko (8): Omega., athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Kaoz, Zkirsche
eclipse (5): Makaze, Lord Gaius, Refa, BBM, Jaybee
Zkirsche (2): Junko, SullyMcGully
athena_57 (1): Shinori
Jaybee (1): Via
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
Arcanite (1): AletteNot Voting: Fable
You have ~4 hours left in the day. With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.
The eclipse wagon seems to have come about mostly from the non-mafia. Jaybee is riding the coat-tails, if junk and shinori want to sac eclipse opportunity is knocking.
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Day 2.woke up from a nap is sleepy
Junko (7): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable
Zkirsche (5): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Refa, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
eclipse (4): Makaze, Lord Gaius, BBM, Jaybee
Jaybee (1): Via
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
Arcanite (1): AletteNot Voting: Shinori
You have ~24 minutes left in the day. With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.
The moment has passed. Junk can't switch for NMoM, Shinori unvoted rather than try to affect the lynch.
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Junko (9): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable, Refa, BBM
Zkirsche (6): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Makaze, Via
eclipse (3): Lord Gaius, Jaybee, Shinori
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
BBM (1): AletteShinori decides NOW is the time to put the sac eclipse masterplan into action.
In your world, the sacrifice mafia tried to engineer to keep their massblocker alive is the mayor, their best tool for manipulating the lynch the way they want it.
They had two mafia, including the mayor, on their massblocker, and had one mafia on their sac target when the momentum of that lynch was at its peak.
Pedit: Are you saying the way town solves the game is to make vague accusations, and doesn't post any evidence to convince others they are right? Not saying that's what refa is doing, I believe he will reread me, but you're implying you would be OK if Refa didn't bother following up.
@Refa You can respond too, if you think the case on me is not bullshit.
I think it's simple. Mafia didn't have a choice but to put some votes on Junko. We know this happened. What was more important to Shinori was distancing himself, and I think the real play they were going for was lynching Athena and getting cleared off of it.
What I can be sure of is that there is no logical incentive to prefer Kirsche's slot over Junko's if both are Mafia.
And I have strong convictions all the other players besides Omega are town.
So that leaves you.
Whether I can get the details behind the inner workings of the scumteam under duress exactly right or not, I can think of many possibilities that make sense and explain the behavior. When Shinori realized the eclipse thing wasn't catching on, he unvoted to distance himself completely, because his attempt to move stuff off of Junko was failing, and he didn't want to make eclipse look bad either.
The best way you can change my mind is to case the real Mafia, not tell me why my case is shit. I can make any kind of case to justify what I know must be true, and it will make sense in my head. So just come up with a better one, that explains the actual facts, and if I'm wrong, I'll reconsider and sheep your argument.
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1 minute ago, Omega. said:
Don't care, I'm not lynching Baldrick ATM.
Then you're not lynching.
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4 minutes ago, Omega. said:
5/1/1 right now.
mislynch = 4/1/1
crosskills = 2/1/1 d6
I don't think village can win in that scenario unless I missed something or some weird role shit
We have Evan... And in this scenario, the Mafia and the SK are going to kill each other before it gets to 1v1 because SK's win kingmaker by design (hosts don't like kingmakers).
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4 minutes ago, Omega. said:
IDGAF. Right now, Baldrick lives.
He does not die over Evan who lynched Snike and killed Blitz.
He does not die over you who greenlighted this.
He does not die over Refa who is now taking what you're saying into consideration in a weirdass way that I'm still reading through.
He does not die over Fable who I explained.
He does not die over literally anyone else. If he's wolf/ITP, tough shit. We're going out punishing wolfy/bad play, and that's more from most of this game than him..
Yeah, no. This post is garbage. You put it there along with your entire philosophy on this game.
Town are going to get invested and get confident in their instincts. Some people won't. Some people will be cautious and only push surefire stuff.
That playstyle is also more likely to come from Mafia, because it's a safe playstyle.
Those people are not better, and they can lose just as easily because nothing risked is nothing gained.
How many wolves have you caught?
Count 'em. None.
How many wolves have I caught, albeit indirectly?
Only the actual deep wolf, Athena.
Neither I nor Beru -- who said I was the thing driving this game -- suspected Athena. And yet we caught him. Suck it, get over it, and get a way of playing that doesn't depend on bad sportsmanship.
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1 minute ago, Omega. said:
At first, I wondered if you were just villa going at me through your POE like you explained. But then I realized wolf/ITP only need 1 mislynch at this point to force kingmaker tomorrow.
Why not go against me? People have been wanting to lynch me since like D2. I'm never out the POE for anyone except like, Kill and Refa, I believe. Why do you say I am the most unlikely to be lynched? I think I'm very lynchable, I don't understand why you're saying otherwise.
Can you explain the kingmaker logic?
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2 minutes ago, Refa said:
You, Makaze. Blitz asked me who to motivate while I was asleep, and floated your name.
whyyyyyyyyy
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2 minutes ago, Refa said:
I don't think the Baldrick case is bullshit though. Like, there are two scum left. If Fable is scum, who do you think is the other one?
And now you see how he's not even thinking about what he's saying.
Hypothesis: Whoever the ITP is, they do not want the mafia lynched today. If they correctly read someone Mafia, they will probably defend them, especially if they themselves are in the PoE. Because they are next and they are down anti-town KP if they die.
I think that the Mafia and ITP probably recognize each other and don't want each other killed yet.
(This isn't the reason for this argument but Baldrick/Omega does make sense in that world.)
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1 minute ago, Omega. said:
No, I'm not the one who greenlighted a plan to kill Blitz, cased Sully/Beru, tried to lynch eclipse, and are now coming up with some bullshit to try and float Baldrick as a play.
You are the last person in this entire game who gets to discredit anyone. No, not putting up with it.
Killing Blitz was objectively the correct call, from my POV. By learning whether he was lying or not, we have enabled mechanical solving that wasn't possible, and Blitz was going be a mislynch if not a vig, just for that reason. I wouldn't be the only one to call for it after Athena was gone. Blitz was next on most peoples' PoE.
I'm also not convinced he could be of much help beyond pure rolespec. He'd probably have agreed with my mechanical arguments, but I doubt he'd be able to contribute meaningfully to actually reading players in the game.
Who was motivated last night, by the way?
We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER
in Mafia
Posted
In that case, it's not mechanically clearing.
But yeah, a world where town has no KP at all here is unbelievable in itself, on top of Evan just being towny as hell.