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Makaze

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Posts posted by Makaze

  1. If you're just going to quote vote counts, that's not going to sway me at all.

    I had solid reasons for thinking eclipse wasn't hunting Mafia, and I discounted her on the assumption that Shinori was patently NOT hard bussing, and therefore, Shinori and Jaybee's votes were both clearing.

    I think an entire 5 man team voting in unison is never going to happen. So just quoting votecounts is useless.

    You're going to have to tell me what your previous slot was thinking, which you can't do, OR, make a case on the real Mafia that convinces me.

  2. 4 hours ago, Refa said:

    Why would Kaoz empower Baldrick?  Claimed Mayor?

    But you yourself (or someone did) say "why would Kaoz empower the claimed networker?".  It's possible that he just empowered Via and the kill is an aspect of the SK's role.

    N1: Eclipse

    N2: Via

    N3: Eclipse

    You were 100% correct here. I believe this is probably what happened, and that if Baldrick were Mafia, the Mafia would have definitely decided to have him submit the kill instead. Simply less to worry about when a townclear does it.

    1 hour ago, Fable said:

    Didn't you go through a whole thing where eclipse worlds didn't make any sense?

    Like I said before, this was just on the basis of whether Shinori and Junko had cased them, and then Jaybee. At the time, I did not realize that Junko was hard bussing Athena, and thought Athena was town. A hardconfirm on Shinori running a hardbussing scum strategy completely changes the meaning of the switch.

    1 hour ago, Fable said:

    @Makaze

    Wasn't there a thing where you were talking about Eclipse being the one that was shot at n1? I vaguely remember that being a thing. 

    I see 3 possible scenarios:

    1. eclipse was targeted by the ITP as both incredibly likely town claim that will never get lynched and potential voting power against them.

    2. eclipse was targeted by the Mafia as both incredibly likely town claim that will never get lynched and potential voting power against them.

    3. eclipse was not targeted, and the ITP idled their shot to hide the fact there might be an ITP in the game (short lived, and hiding it quickly became a non-thing).

    eclipse can be a Mafia member in 1 and 3, and the ITP in 2 and 3. So eclipse not dying N1 here is NAI, and does not clear them like I thought it would. I was just rushing my thought process.

  3. 2 hours ago, Killthestory said:

    refa doesnt die over baldrick.

    I'd believe that, yes, because I think you are town again. And you're thinking strategically.

    But I was saying that your wish that he could prove your claim is pointless. Either he lives and can prove it, or he doesn't live and can prove it. Whether you are Mafia or not, killing Refa helps stop the PoE, because it helps eliminate you from it. So if I was Mafia, I'd probably kill Baldrick -> Refa, so he could reveal the first part of your role, but wouldn't live to tell the second part.

  4. 2 hours ago, Refa said:

    Why would Kaoz empower Baldrick?  Claimed Mayor?

    But you yourself (or someone did) say "why would Kaoz empower the claimed networker?".  It's possible that he just empowered Via and the kill is an aspect of the SK's role.

    N1: Eclipse

    N2: Via

    N3: Eclipse

    I don't think Baldrick is ITP, because that makes Omega the Mafia. That is not a world I can buy. Baldrick is arguing Omega can't be Mafia, and that could easily be TMI despite agreeing with my reasons.

    I am fundamentally correct about Fable and Evan being town. @Fable @EvanManManMan @Refa Stop infighting. Please.

    Considere a world where Baldrick is the last Mafia, and the goal was to push a counter lynch on eclipse because she was also Mafia and it would have been better than lynching Junko.

    We'll see after the flip if I am right. Either way, this is a PoE decision and nothing else. After that, looking at the way Baldrick has been playing makes a lot of sense if he is anti-town. I think Baldrick's question about coasting is itself shifting the burden of proof, Refa. That could easily be him gas lighting you (Do you really think that?). Or "You're mafia" "Do you have any evidence?" This comes from a position of guilty more often than not, IMO.

    If it's not Kill, it's Baldrick. If Baldrick is ITP, then Omega is Mafia, so I think Baldrick is the Mafia, and this makes more sense with what happened with the eclipse vote switch, so I'm going to run with it.

    ##Vote Baldrick

  5. I was wrong about my kill case.

    In a world where Kill is Mafia, they have every reason to just switch to Kirsche and gain the power and still get cleared. Plus Athena had much better content than Kirsche. I have to create multiple mental hoops to jump if that is what happened.

    However, if we assume they know Kierche is town, and they are trying to hard bus for the mass block, then voting Mafia!eclipse makes sense. They would know that lynching Kirsche would make them look bad and Junko would get lynched the next phase, so the eclipse lynch was a safer bet.

    I am going to agree with Refa. Baldrick's hardclear has been revoked.

    Sorry, Kill. I got into my tunnel and it made sense because nothing else could with Baldrick as town.

  6. 32 minutes ago, Fable said:

    Would an itp bookie bet on kills or lynches? It would still have to be lynches right? So either way he had to bet on snike and then bank it if he isn't a villager. 

    We've confirmed it's night kills because the description of cookie is no and there's no modifier despite double investigation. Also his claims make perfect sense.

  7. I am considering a Baldrick as ITP argument, but I never ever see multiple scum going from one mafia lynch to another mafia off lynch. Maybe if they expect to die but Shinori 100% did not expect to die to spew eclipse town.

    So no eclipse is not on their scumteam o stand by my reasons for eliminating her early on d3.

    But now you have my wondering because kaoz does not stop the kill with his jail.

    On 4/25/2018 at 1:37 PM, Beru said:

     

  8. 1 minute ago, Refa said:

    why wouldn't scum!shinori just vote kirsche in this scenario instead of leaving it up in the air?

    I can, but it'd take two nights.

    @Makaze BTW, Junk's role depended on two scum dying to get the mass roleblock.  Isn't it possible that scum just bussed in order to use that?

    No no no, Marth is never intimidated by Eurykins.  He'd go after big name players first like BBM who were also casing him.

    Okay

    Explain to me what happened to Kaoz knowing that Walrein wasn't lying

  9. 1 minute ago, Refa said:

    No, I don't think he can be ITP.  If he was, why did him getting jailed on N1 stop the NK but not on N3?  That seems weird.  Also I don't see the Shinori kill coming from Baldrick, whereas EvanManManMan's prior slot (LG) was townreading Shinori just the day/night before.

    Because... Kaoz empowered his killer. ????

    Which is the main reason that Kill makes sense. Walrein was not lying. Let that sink in. That means that Kaoz was martyr's, and still died. Who did Kaoz empower? Kill, by your own reasoning.

    Please tell me who was jailed every night.

  10. 1 minute ago, Killthestory said:

    yeah, a conetworker is a lot less powerful than their other roles objectively

    plus, i dont get a power from athena dying. idk if refa can rolecop me to prove this, but i definitely dont get a power from athena dying.

    this i would buy, if i didn't know that refa was dying tonight, making this 100% safe to say

  11. 1 minute ago, Refa said:

    I suspect Eury was for the reasoning that Snike mentioned earlier on.  Who are you suspecting as SK?  Omega?  Fable?  Why would either of those people kill Eurykins?

    Maybe they viewed Athena's role as less valuable.

    They wouldn't really care at that point, and Omega wasn't in the game when Eurykins was killed. So it would have been Marth killing Eury. I think this is likely because Marth is probably intimidated by town!Eury.

  12. 1 minute ago, Killthestory said:

    first of all, from a host meta, a game breaking power that youre describing is impossible. it might have been worthless, it might have been okay, but it certainly wasnt AMAZING.

    they were sacrificing out of necessity. for towncred, and since they werent playing too well. basing your entire play off one role is something nobody does.

    i don't like this, or buy that you believe it. there are better arguments for why they did it.

    they went into the game casing athena from out of the gate and kept on it until it was junko/kirsche, against consensus

  13. 1 minute ago, Killthestory said:

    what

    whatre you on about? athena at most gets a roleblock from killing me. they wouldnt give a shit about mr, and sacrificing one of your own for something you dont even have info on is crazy.

     

    dude...

    lol no, we know they tried to sacrifice him, thats a matter of record. it makes a LOT more sense and is a LOT less clearing in light of the extra power part of his role

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