Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[MancerNecro]

We kill Shin and if Shin is right, the boulder disappears, Xinnidy is definitely going to die tonight.

[MancerNecro]

Look, if you want Shin vigged, BBM, explain why do you think that a theoretical scum Shin would want to omniguard Xinnidy?

SB needs to consider that BBM could be lying about his Gravedigger role in his assumption that town has too many protective roles.

The only possible way for all these to fit together is if SB and BBM are scum buddies.

What BBM is doing on Shin now is exactly the same as his tunneling on Elieson D1 guys.

[Refa]

BBM brings up a good point about Marthipan targeting Poly. It has no scum benefit at all considering that Poly's claimed roles were well, unusable for the day/night/whatever. It doesn't even make sense for him to target Polydeuces over Beli if he wanted to appear townie (unless Beli is his scumbuddy I suppose, but their interactions make me inclined to believe otherwise). Also I don't really have anything to say about his claim (it could come from any alignment and it's easy to fake cop as scum), buuuuuut the tone of his later posts is well...townie. Thems the vibes that I be getting, fool. Honestly I skimmed through his arguments with SB so that I could get this post out in an hour before Xinny vigs, but there's nothing there that bothers me either. BBM, question: can you gravedig passive abilities (like say...vengeful)? One should die proudly when it is no longer possible to live proudly.

You know what does bother me? Mancer's push on BBM bothers me. Why are you so sure that BBM will flip scum? What do you think of my ISO on him wherein I ultimately concluded that he was town despite his bad interactions with Marthipan. Also I'm voting Shin because read my post about him. I don't buy his claim. Also do you honestly believe that SB/BBM are scumbuddies at this point? Like...I know SB is all about bussing but this is...I don't see how it could possibly be construed as scum/scum interactions (pretty sure it's the exact opposite, being town/town interactions).

Don't agree with SB about Mancer being obvious town because of being disabled because that can be faked. There's nothing that bothers me about his BBM case (unlike Mancer's case on BBM), but I'm still pretty sure that BBM is town so it's clearly flawed. Yeah, I forgot to reply regarding Rapier's role being stronger than Shin but I agree with you there; I've since dropped that point because what you said was legit. You lynching scum doesn't make you look worse, it was more the general circumstances feeling very similar to SFMM4 (so less your actions being scummy and just...I dunno how to describe it words are hard). Also you are the epitome of towniness now because of your reaction to Marth's claim (which I somehow missed when doing those ISO's, fuck me). OK, maybe not the epitome, but you're close to that!

Shin, going off of memory here but I'm pretty sure in a few of your posts you called out his content as being lazy and sheepish. I already mentioned why I don't buy your claim (##Shi-wait, I already did that...). Beli swapped to Elieson for consolidation, because earlier he explicitly stated that Elieson's behavior didn't make sense as scum (which I don't agree with but whatever). Also if you were townreading Marth and were wrong, then why is BBM scummy for doing the same?

[BBM]

if he can't target his buddies then why not? Xinny wasn't looking particularly townie on D1 and for that matter Shin wasn't even townreading her. I can get that he might not have wanted to target someone he thought would die, but at least it would make more sense to target someone he actually was leaning town on? And it also denied town it's protective role because we couldn't pick Earth (although they didn't know that).

Also I actually have a lot of non-Shin content this phase and if you read my posts EVEN A LITTLE BIT you can see that I am nowhere near as sure about my Shin read this phase as I was about Elie on D1 so this is actually nothing similar to that case at all. Sorry Mancer.

Anyways gotta wake up EARLY so night guys

if Shin is town then we could also pick earth and I could jail Xinny to keep her alive through the night, if that's really a concern. I wouldn't exactly object to a Poly vig but right now I'm feeling like Shin is more likely to be scum, though I could see Shin/Poly,

Mancer was pushing for the Marth lynch really hard at end D1 so I don't think he's scum, Refa

[BBM]

can't gravedig passive abilities

[MancerNecro]

Refa: I wasn't so much of pushing a case on BBM than defending Shin. Honestly, I am confident that Shin is town. If Shin does flip scum, feel free to lynch me if you want to. I don't have to agree with your opinion on everything and my read on BBM comes from several other factors other than his interaction with Marth.

BBM: So you're rolespeccing to answer my question? I really want a concrete answer as to why an Omniguard scum would want to protect Xinnidy at all and you have not given me anything. "What if he can't target scum?" is a stupid way to handwave my question away and I don't buy that answer.

Your Elieson case wasn't anything concrete either. You just sat there and went "Why should I vote Marth over Elieson?" and "Elieson's claim is null" for the last 24 hours of day 1 when I ttied to consolidate the lynch onto Bluedoom. That when you had a Bluedoom case that was quite strong as well pings me.

Honestly, can everyone even read what they're posting? WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO VIG A CLAIMED OMNIGUARD? Seriously!

I'm exasperated and close to giving up on this game. *sigh*

[MancerNecro]

Also, Refa, I was pushing Bluedoom really hard as well, confident that he may be scum. What do you think of that versus me being confident that Shin could be town and BBM could be scum?

[Xinnidy]

I honestly expected more than a paranoia wall, this is fairly frustrating.

BBM brings up a good point about Marthipan targeting Poly. It has no scum benefit at all considering that Poly's claimed roles were well, unusable for the day/night/whatever. It doesn't even make sense for him to target Polydeuces over Beli if he wanted to appear townie (unless Beli is his scumbuddy I suppose, but their interactions make me inclined to believe otherwise).

This logic could go both ways, except scum is betting on town falling for one of them

What benefit does scum have of tracking a town slot they know won't act that day? Unless the vig is compulsive, this doesn't make sense either. If there's no proof of the contrary, either side of the wifom coin is plausible.

You know what does bother me? Mancer's push on BBM bothers me. Why are you so sure that BBM will flip scum? What do you think of my ISO on him wherein I ultimately concluded that he was town despite his bad interactions with Marthipan. Also I'm voting Shin because read my post about him. I don't buy his claim. Also do you honestly believe that SB/BBM are scumbuddies at this point? Like...I know SB is all about bussing but this is...I don't see how it could possibly be construed as scum/scum interactions (pretty sure it's the exact opposite, being town/town interactions).

Realtalk I remember Mancer's town meta being exactly this way. His paranoia talks loud and he's usually very agressive when he starts suspecting things (like my mason claim in void lol).

Your argument also does not sound like you're actually scumreading Mancer, so this isn't really helpful, unless all you're trying to say is that we shouldn't listen to Mancer. Which I do if I really think it's baseless paranoia.

I am not vigging Shin. if he continues alive by some miracle or another, we do that on a future day. Off of the people I read as town, we have enough mislynches (and off the flips that might happen, shifts in townreads and scumreads can surely happen, which is very important). We should focus on poly and BBM today. We have AT LEAST two mislynches if you're that paranoid, and I'd rather go off of current PoE than this, no offense.

PEDIT: Wait BBM said we have two mislynches but do we really?

Assuming a 3-man scum team 2 mislynches + 2 misvigs would put us at 2/2 (after factoring nightkill) game over so this isn't true. This would only be true in a 2-man scumteam.

There is *no way in hell* that I'm going to rely on the non-confirmed claim rather than something that is actually saving my hide.

[Refa]

I found Mancer scummy for his BBM read. Pretty sure I made that obvious. Saying that we shouldn't listen to Mancer is kind of douchey regardless of what his alignment is (and whatever scum has to say is way more important than what town has to say honestly), and it's not something I'd ever tell other people to do.

Also, Refa, I was pushing Bluedoom really hard as well, confident that he may be scum. What do you think of that versus me being confident that Shin could be town and BBM could be scum?

Yeah, I forgot about that. Unless someone was hardbussing Marthipan, I can't really see anyone other than Shin and Poly flipping scum at this point. Sometimes it is harder to accede to a thing than it is to see its truth.

[BBM]

You're saying like WHY WOULD A ROLE TARGET X and then dismissing my answer for being rolespec??? You're literally asking for rolespec I don't understand. Let me flip the question to you. Why would a Town Omniguard target Xinny?

today you all learn that I don't actually go to sleep for at least an hour after I say I will

Also my numbers weren't taking vigshots into account. Assuming it's 7/2 right now, we have 1 mislynch and 2 misvigs. If you guys are really going to lynch or vig me this is where I'm at wrt other people's alignments for PoE: Shin > Poly > SB > Refa > Beli

[Refa]

This logic could go both ways, except scum is betting on town falling for one of them

What benefit does scum have of tracking a town slot they know won't act that day? Unless the vig is compulsive, this doesn't make sense either. If there's no proof of the contrary, either side of the wifom coin is plausible.

Uh, that's what I said. It makes no sense for Marthipan to have tracked Town!Poly. How are you disagreeing with me at all on this. Energy wasted on negative ends.

It's fairly annoying that you're dismissing my content as paranoia when I'm pretty confident in my reads sans Mancer (who I haven't even ISO'd so of course I'd be less confident on him).

[BBM]

idk the main thing about Poly right now is that I'm just not sure if Prims would have scum/town Co-drivers AGAIN as well as scum/town neighbours again when that's so overdone at this point

[Refa]

idk the main thing about Poly right now is that I'm just not sure if Prims would have scum/town Co-drivers AGAIN as well as scum/town neighbours again when that's so overdone at this point

Clearly they're scum/scum neighbors!

Apparently he made this setup before SFMM4 (it's somewhere in the OP near whereever the rules about the hydra slot are) so I could see it happening. Also unrelated but remind me to never trust Prims' hydra slots ever again, 0/2 of them have flipped town so far. No doubt, CERTAINTY is what drives one insane.

[Xinnidy]

I found Mancer scummy for his BBM read. Pretty sure I made that obvious.

Well then I don't even know what to say.

You're saying like WHY WOULD A ROLE TARGET X and then dismissing my answer for being rolespec??? You're literally asking for rolespec I don't understand. Let me flip the question to you. Why would a Town Omniguard target Xinny?

No, no. Please read again. I said that both are possible rolespecs. Not one has more construct than the other

Though I have, in fact, answered your question before.

Shin's role fits pretty well with rapier's and also shin can't really block a kill at the same night he uses his action so it made sense for him to not go for a more active townread.

Shin claimed his role is not immediate and is effective starting the day after, so going for BIG TOWNREADS would not be his best bet if they risk being killed overnight.

Uh, that's what I said. It makes no sense for Marthipan to have tracked Town!Poly. How are you disagreeing with me at all on this. Energy wasted on negative ends.

I was pretty sure you said Scum!Poly lol ok then.

You know what let me consider all these reads a last time.

[BBM]

I was talking to Mancer there. And yes, he doesn't want to go for BIG TOWNREADS, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have gone for a LITTLE TOWNREAD or at least someone who was, from what it looked like on D1, in some danger of dying at some point. There is in fact an area between "obvtown" and "null" for him to target.

And that's like not even counting that he could have gone for Mancer, who was never going to be the N1 kill but still looked reasonably town that he probably wouldn't be blocking investigative reports. The choice to target you was in his words: "someone relatively quiet who's not in particular danger of being mislynched". Why would you delayed-omniguard this person over "someone who looks reasonably town who's not in particular danger of being killed N1"?

[Xinnidy]

I believe this will all depend on flips now.

We have four shots to catch scum with, then one more at 2/1 if worse comes to worse.

I am not going to risk a shin vig/lynch today, if we're to do it, we *will* do it tomorrow. (If BBM isn't scum, I will do you a favor and vig him tomorrow). Instead of expending our second class on an 1-shot jailkeeper, we should gun for an informative role.

I will vig Poly now because there certainly is little point in trying to lynch an inactive scrub, especially when so much more brought by the other lynch prospect (I should probably have done this way earlier...). This should affect a lot of reads depending on flips.

##Daykill: Burakkuhoku

[Prims]

~ Day 3.2 MODSCENE ~

Xinnidy looked at Poly and was like "wow, this is too much scratching, fuck that." So she beat him up. RIP Poly D. Euces and thank goodness I'll never have to copy-paste whatever his current username is into a votecount ever again.

Burakkuhoku - Funny shuffle - Town Dark Co-Driver / Wind Neighbor - killed Day 3

Alive: (8)

- BBM

- Belisarius

- eclipse

- MancerNecro

- Quote (Viata) SB.

- Refa

- Shin

- Xinnidy

Not Alive: (6)

- Sara. (Elieson) - into the battlefield, Town Element Swapper, lynched Day 1

- NekoRex & Randa - INSOMNIA, Traveler, killed Night 1

- Rapier - Pharaoh, Town Earth Jailkeeper, killed Day 2

- Bluedoom - ra'am, Mafia Wind Disabler / Bookie / Forecaster, lynched Day 2

- kirsche - Hypersonik, Town Wind Cop, killed Night 2

- Burakkuhoku (Polydeuces) - Funny shuffle, Town Dark Co-Driver / Wind Neighbor, killed Day 3

Edited September 20, 2014 by Prims

[MancerNecro]

BBM, the only point you proved is that you cannot answer that question without any role speculation: aka SHIN MOST LIKELY CANNOT BE SCUM SINCE IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. If you can't even come up with a solid case that does not involve any unconfirmed and useless speculation then why do you think Shin is scum and should be vigged? You should go after players who are most likely to be scum based off on more solid information and reads.

@Refa: That's a really big jump in logic considering that you have found me town for pretty much two whole days in this game.

I was hoping for a BBM vig because that is the flip that will actually matter more. Vigging Poly leaves us in pretty much the same situation as before that, Xinnidy: Arguing and flailing around in the dark. Poly has so little content and activity that we are likely not to get any associative reads off of him.

Regarding night 1 targets, I think I was most likely in danger of being killed. I was the most vocal out of all the town and day 1 ended with almost everyone agreeing that I was town. There were many strong reads based off of interactions with me that Bluedoom made use of to coast in day 1 and 2. With kirsche's sudden jump in logic against me in day 1, it would be easy for scum to force a mislynch onto kirsche if they kill me and I flip town. In fact, if Randa did not claim and did not have such a strong town read on me, I don't think that ITP pair would have been the target of the night kill (it would be me most likely).

Shin might have used his boulder on Xinnidy because they're friends or he just wanted to randomly protect a town player. It's quite easy for me to come up with possible reasons for why Shin could be town instead of mafia with his Omniguard role. The role also blocks kills so it's stupid for it to be a scum ability since it interferes with scum as well. If the Omniguard was a Safeguard though then I agree that Shin could be scum. What does scum gain by making a town player immune to their night kill? If that player appears too townie later and ends up leading the town to lynching all of the scum team then they would have lost the game right then and there.

[MancerNecro]

Great, I am now a worthless Vanilla without having done anything with my role. Thank you very much town!

I'm not posting anymore today since I am really irritated by how things have transpired in the game. I probably need to calm myself down too before I can continue to play this game further.

[Refa]

What the fuck, how did Poly flip town this makes no sense at all. Shin is still scum, but I'm going to have to reevaluate my reads because I have no idea who could be his scumbuddy. Also very annoyed at myself, this better not turn out like SFMM4. Except our own thoughts, there is nothing absolutely in our power.

BBM, the only point you proved is that you cannot answer that question without any role speculation: aka SHIN MOST LIKELY CANNOT BE SCUM SINCE IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. If you can't even come up with a solid case that does not involve any unconfirmed and useless speculation then why do you think Shin is scum and should be vigged? You should go after players who are most likely to be scum based off on more solid information and reads.

@Refa: That's a really big jump in logic considering that you have found me town for pretty much two whole days in this game.

Regarding night 1 targets, I think I was most likely in danger of being killed. I was the most vocal out of all the town and day 1 ended with almost everyone agreeing that I was town. There were many strong reads based off of interactions with me that Bluedoom made use of to coast in day 1 and 2. With kirsche's sudden jump in logic against me in day 1, it would be easy for scum to force a mislynch onto kirsche if they kill me and I flip town. In fact, if Randa did not claim and did not have such a strong town read on me, I don't think that ITP pair would have been the target of the night kill (it would be me most likely).

Shin might have used his boulder on Xinnidy because they're friends or he just wanted to randomly protect a town player. It's quite easy for me to come up with possible reasons for why Shin could be town instead of mafia with his Omniguard role. The role also blocks kills so it's stupid for it to be a scum ability since it interferes with scum as well. If the Omniguard was a Safeguard though then I agree that Shin could be scum. What does scum gain by making a town player immune to their night kill? If that player appears too townie later and ends up leading the town to lynching all of the scum team then they would have lost the game right then and there.

You are townreading Shin entirely based off of his claimed role and it is dumb.

I'm explaining why I found you scummy at the time (I can see why it could be construed as a logical leap but I'm not going to reign in my thoughts for the sole purpose of making my thought process look consistent). Then BBM was like "yo Refa he'd have to have hard bussed Marthipan from D1 if they were scumbuddies" and that made no sense to me so I dropped it. At this point I'm just explaining where I was coming from and I'd prefer not to repeat myself for something I don't even believe in anymore.

I don't get why you'd be the most likely kill target for N1. I've been considered obvious town in most of my recent town games and have survived to LYLO each time. Your reasoning for why Shin used his role on Xinnidy makes no sense to me. BBM's points on that front are definitely valid. Omniguard is a townie claim in and of itself but it just doesn't jive well with the other roles (I conceded that it didn't obselete Rapier but it's still way too much protection for town).

[Prims]

BBM:

@Mancer- yeah but my role is better than your's so you should be glad that there's a still a chance that I can survive to tonight to use it (albeit a small one from how it's looking atm)

@Xinny- The mafia aren't going to kill Shin if he's town because he's a potential mislynch and it'll be MYLO tomorrow if we mislynch. Vigging him tomorrow after I flip town is dumb too. If you lynch me and I flip town, you're guaranteed to survive the night, but town learns nothing about Shin's alignment. If you lynch Shin and he flips town, you're not guaranteed to survive the night (actually you kind of are because I'd effectively be saccing myself the following day if I killed you after saying I'd protect you) but you give me a chance to prove my role, or potentially try to use it as a hook to block the scum NK, or cop someone or whatever. You learn something about my alignment, or give me the chance to get scum, or something.

If you're REALLY ADAMANT about not lynching Shin, you should lynch SB. Cop is better tonight than Tracker is, and he's not confirmed town either.

Mancer, you were never going to be killed N1. Regardless of how vocal you were, you're too quick to jump to a suspicion on every little thing in the thread, and you're extremely difficult to read. Even after being super vocal, Refa was almost willing to lynch you today and SB said that he "would like to believe you were scum" even though he said you're probably not. And that's after your really favourable Marth interactions.

Are you seriously using "Shin targeted Xinny because they're friends"??? Shin is friends with almost everyone playing in this game. I need a better reason for town!Shin to target a random nullread than "they were friends", and it's an easy and provable role that gives good towncred. And as town, you want to use this ability to make mafia not able to kill someone they would want to kill N2 or N3. Can you honestly tell me that without Xinny's claim she'd be at all someone the mafia want to NK?

Also Co-Drivers + JK + perma-Omniguard + Gravedigger that could reproduce the latter two at least is way too much protection FMPOV.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Prims

[Xinnidy]

Hmm this might stagnate the thread horribly, Mancer is right. I've made a mess. Sigh.

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch now. Let's try not to vote until we have some confidence in a lynch.

The PoE was flawed, now we know better. But there are things I want to make clear:

We are not lynching Shin today.

We will vote Holy.

Unless Belisarius can full claim something better, we should activate eclipse's and SB's role. SB, do not claim who you intend to track.

##Select: Holy

Refa I don't find your points about shin's role being too much protection valid because it cannot block a nightkill, merely zone people out from that target the following day. It is not way too much protection for town because it cannot be taken by BBM's role (presumably, since he doesn't seem to be restricted by elements).

I will await what eclipse has to say about bbm's role as she implied. And maybe tell her holy role.

BBM, Refa, a scumread that is not shin.

BBM, what is dumb about vigging shin if you flip town? At that point, fmpov, if he flipped town, the scumteam would be sb and refa.

[Xinnidy]

Actually wait a moment.

The neighbour part of poly's role is wind

BBM you should be able to use the neighbour to confirm your role to mancer, right?

[MRDRHAWK]

too much wubwubwub not enough bass dropping evidently

AU REVOIR MES AMIS

[charlie_]

Gonna go from 1.5 with VCA. Assuming eclipse and Xinny are town...

Day 1.5 - Votals
Bluedoom (4) - MancerNecro, Xinnidy, Randa & NekoRex
eclipse (2) - Belisarius, kirsche
Randa & NekoRex (2) - eclipse, Bluedoom
Elieson (1) - BBM
MancerNecro (1) - Burakkuhoku
Shin (1) - Rapier
Not Voting (4): Quote, Refa, Sara., Shin

Day 1.6 - Votals
Sara. (4) - BBM, Shin, Refa, Rapier
Bluedoom (3) - Xinnidy, Randa & NekoRex
BBM (1) - Quote
Belisarius (1) - eclipse
eclipse (1) - kirsche
MancerNecro (1) - Burakkuhoku
Quote (1) - MancerNecro
Randa & NekoRex (1) - Bluedoom
Not Voting (2): Belisarius, Sara.

Day 1.7 - Votals
Sara. (7) - BBM, Shin, Refa, Rapier, Randa & NekoRex, MancerNecro (L-1!)
Bluedoom (3) - Sara., Belisarius, kirsche
BBM (1) - Quote
Belisarius (1) - eclipse
MancerNecro (1) - Burakkuhoku
Randa & NekoRex (1) - Bluedoom
Not Voting (1): Xinnidy

This is what votecounts look like. There are a LOT of unknowns on the Elieson wagon, and I kind of feel like scum all jumped on Eli (if they weren't there already) in order to save Marth. Will look into things more closely in a bit.