Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

2. Watcher + Macho is insanely strong.

Xinnidy was an unknown going into D2, which makes that Shin read a little weird.

I read through your entire post and am still confused as to what you mean by Macho. If it's a CLEVER reference to your role name then it worked!

Also good catch on that second point. Beli never answered it on his reply to you, but I'd like him to explain why 1) he thought that mafia knew that they targeted the dayvig and 2) how he figured that they'd be able to remove it immediately.

Truth be told, I think we have a BBM/Refa scumteam. Refa's been soft-defending BBM for a fair while and his point about BBM's read on Marth has an issue. I was town reading Marth right up until he was lynched whilst BBM went from a kinda town read to a scumread when he got outed. There's a difference between thinking someone's town and being wrong and thinking someone's town then swapping to them near lynch. Whilst admittedly it could be considered that the evidence proved Marth was scum, but I don't like how both Refa and BBM made the same complaint.

There's an amazing amount of buddying too, Refa's reasons for his BBM town read are;

1) Not finding Rapier's slip scummy - Rapier makes mistakes all the time, and everyone who followed the slip was town.

2) Tunneling on Eli makes him look town - Actually kinda legit

3) Marth interactions - You admit they're also bad later

4) "Good" Shin read which is your #1 read - As scum it makes more sense to join an existing case rather than make a new one

5) Well written cases - Scum as smelly as they are don't immediately become illiterate

I've been townreading BBM pretty much the whole game. Like how is that a soft defense at all (if you think I'm scummy for hard defending him than whatever but this isn't even what I'm actually doing). Several people switched from Belisarius to Marthipan on account of eclipse's info alone, so I'm confused as to why exactly you find BBM scummy for that.

1) Uh...BBM was the first person to jump on Rapier after eclipse. ;/ I specifically said that him doubting his earlier read on Rapier came across as genuine. Additionally, BOTH of your scumreads are people who went after the Rapier scumslip, so it strikes me as really odd that you'd say "and everyone who followed the slip was town".

2) Nifty!

3) OK, I admit my point here wasn't clear. I think his earlier Marthipan interactions were townie, and his later interactions were scummy. Overall, the point is null (as in I can glean both town/scum intent from it).

4) It'd be easier for him to case SB or me as scum than you (since more people are willing to lynch either). Distrust in all whom the impulse to punish is powerful.

5) lol

Refa, have you asked Prims what happens if you get lynched in 3P LYLO? Would the game automatically end or would you able to shoot someone first?

My role doesn't work in LYLO (actually thinking about it, it doesn't say anything about MYLO; I should ask Prims about that). Oh, and I forgot to mention this, but @SB it is compulsive.

By the way, a corollary of b) is that we should NOT pick Fire tomorrow because Xinny won't be able to safely dayvig on D5, if the game gets there.

Wouldn't it be better for us to vote Fire so that she can dayvig instead of risking a quickhammer?

[BBM]

Not really because the very minor benefit given by that would be less than having another element for N4. And besides, if it's Xinny + two uncleared people in 3p LYLO, her vote and her vigshot are basically the same thing after the other two crossvote.

Also, is it just the vengeful part that doesn't work in LYLO or also the BPV part?

[Refa]

Not really because the very minor benefit given by that would be less than having another element for N4. And besides, if it's Xinny + two uncleared people in 3p LYLO, her vote and her vigshot are basically the same thing after the other two crossvote.

Also, is it just the vengeful part that doesn't work in LYLO or also the BPV part?

My Role PM doesn't say anything about the BPV turning off, so I'm inclined to believe that it doesn't (unless Prims majorly fucked up somewhere). There are no eternal facts, as there are no absolute truths.

[eclipse]

I read through your entire post and am still confused as to what you mean by Macho. If it's a CLEVER reference to your role name then it worked!

You get a "F" for reading eclipse's wall posts.

[BBM]

eclipse, which element would be best for your JoaT?

[SB.]

@Refa, I don't really agree with your townread reasons.

1) I don't get how having doubts on Rapier's scumslip makes him look townie? I'd be more wary of him if he didn't have any.

2) BBM tunneling Elieson means that he was directly responsible for Marth not getting lynched, or at least played a big part in it. So yeah I don't think that holds up too well either. Scum are also capable of hard tunnelling, I did it to you in SFMM4 for a while and to Darros in Fantasy, for examples.

3) I don't see what of BBM's early Marth interactions could be faked? He had no issues with realistically attacking his scumbuddies in SMT, and his later interactions really aren't good.

4) This is super biased and hinges on associative reads without flips, so.

5) This really shouldn't be part of your read considering SFMM4 happened.

Wrt my scumread on him:

1) Don't compare it to how he treated Randa, compare it to how he treated Bal/Shinori/Whoever it was.

3) You weren't pressing Marth, so its possible that he could just ignore you because of laziness. BBM was gunning for Marth HARD for like, half of Day 1 but Marth never said anything about him which is kind of ridiculous.

##Unvote

I just realized we can drag Refa to 3p LYLO for an autowin if we play our cards right, so we probably shouldn't lynch him regardless of alignment.

Would activating Beli's role to watch eclipse be better? Scum won't want to force a 1v1 or they'll get dayvigged, and if we bring a clear into 3p LYLO it's autowin because of Refa's vengeful. I'm also getting kind of wary that Shin seems to be practically sheeping everything I say, which is bugging me but at the same time I'm not sure how to respond to it?

Based on how things are going down in thread atm, I feel like the scumteam is either BBM/Refa (leaning towards this) or Shin/Beli. The first pair have really close interactions between them, and I'm doubtful that Refa or BBM would push Shin this hard as his buddy to Beli is kind of there on PoE in that case. It's possible for it to be wrong, but meh. Logically, the only people we should consider for the lynch today are BBM, Beli and me because everyone else is either clear or has a decent reason to be kept alive.

I actually think Tracker/Watcher/Cop can all co-exist and I don't think scum has a watcher as it sounds like I would've fit onto Marth's role better? It might just be for safeclaiming purposes I guess, but if it's only a tracker/cop there's only a 50% chance of an info role being picked? Someone would have to check that maths because I'm kind of lazy. My other reasons for BBM being scummy still stand and #1046 felt exactly like how he responded to me when we were in a 1v1 at MYLO in SMT just on tone?

##Vote: BBM

I'm not entirely against my own lynch at this point if people think it's a good idea but only if you guys have a really good idea of what's going to happen in MYLO tomorrow. I'm open to Shin being vigged after providing Xin more protection for tonight, because I'm really not sure what to think of him anymore considering what happened today.

[BBM]

SB needs to realize that there are some things people do in scum games because they're scum and some things that they do in scum games that have nothing to do with their alignment. What's even scummy about the tone in #1046? "It sounds like your tone in SMT" isn't an answer unless you can say why my tone in SMT was specifically a product of my alignment there.

[BBM]

also Refa already said that the vengeful doesn't work in 3p LYLO

[Shin]

SB, your lynch is unlikely to prove helpful, if the theoretical BBM/Refa or Shin/Beli scumteams were to exist, it wouldn't narrow things down at all. BBM, the defense you're making about tone is probably combating the least important part of SB's read on you.

There's not much else I can really comment on, I need to head off to bed and I'm likely to be back late, hopefully before lynch deadline though.

[MancerNecro]

After some thinking through, I find it hard to believe that a Gravedigger can exist alongside a JoAT. Too much variable roles for town even though the elements restrict the usage of skills each night.

Also, if BBM were really a Gravedigger and I was wrong, I doubt he can copy Shin's role because it seems to be non-elemental.

I refuse to believe that Shin is a scum permanent-Omniguard and if he is scum, feel free to blame me for it in postgame. I don't see how his role can help scum at all. I might be stupid or inexperienced in this game but I really don't see it.

If there's a scum team divide, it should be between BBM/Refa and BBM/Bellysaurus FMPOV (well, I have to be town FMPOV). This is based off of their interactions in thread.

Actually, I don't really believe Bellysaurus's Water Watcher claim because there might be a Water Roleblocker and because Watcher seems much stronger than SB's Tracker. Not sure what the rest of you might make of this. I'd think if town has a pair of informative roles, a pair of Watcher/Voyeur or Tracker/Follower might make more sense.

Regardless, I want a BBM lynch today.

##Unvote, ##Vote: BBM to ensure my vote is on him.

Also, we need votals, Prims.

[BBM]

Shin still not answering questions about his role, okay

About SB's case- I'm aware of that. However, the rest of his case is stuff I've already replied to. I've spoken quite a lot about my Marth interactions and my decision to go after Elie over him. I stand by my conviction that parts of the Marth case D1 sucked, like Mancer's "DIDN'T RESTATE ALL HIS READS BEFORE HE WENT TO SLEEP MUST BE SCUM", and I was really confident about Elie being scum. That + not really having any issues with Marth beyond earlygame stuff (which I didn't consider to be as important as all of Elie's stuff since that wasn't bordering RVS) added up to me not really wanting to lynch Marth D1. Beyond that, there's not much I can say other than that I was wrong about my read.

BTW if we're lynching Shin today we should pick Earth, not Wind, so that I can use the JK to protect Xinny.

Also, nobody really responded to this so I'm going to restate it. When Marth was the leading wagon he actually defended Shin, his counterwagon, in #764, and chose to push Beli as his counterwagon despite the fact that Beli had no votes on him at the time.

@Mancer- I don't need to copy Shin's boulder if he gets lynched; we can pick Earth and I can copy Rapier's Jailkeeper.

[Prims]

Day 3.4 Votals

BBM (3) - Shin, SB., MancerNecro

Belisarius (1) - eclipse

Refa (1) - SB.

SB. (1) - Belisarius

Shin (1) - Refa

Not Voting (2) - BBM, Xinnidy

Class Selection

Archer (4) - MancerNecro, Belisarius, Refa, BBM

Cleric (2) - SB., Xinnidy

Indecisive (2): eclipse, Shin

You have 28 hours left in the phase. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

[BBM]

"too many variable roles for town to have"

what does this even mean?

And roles being restricted by element means that town roles that can operate under any element are actually even more useful, so it makes sense for there to be two roles like that. Scum also want roles that can operate under any element, but if you'll notice, there's already a flipped scum who claimed a role like this (and there was no reason for him to lie because then he wouldn't be able to prove his role).

hey I realized I never voted Shin

##Vote: Shin

##Deselect, ##Select: Knight

sheep me, for love and for Lakche

[MancerNecro]

##Unselect: Archer, ##Select: Cleric

Time to let SB use his role. Also, I believe the track can be very incriminating if he manages to track someone to a kill since we're not lynching him tonight.

[BBM]

Also people are like... dividing the possible scumteams into Beli+Shin and BBM+Refa. I don't think this is a good idea because I think the only scumteams that really don't make sense are BBM+Shin and Refa+Shin. Shin+SB would be possible too, as would BBM+Beli and maaaaybe SB+Refa/BBM (probably not though).

[BBM]

##Unselect: Archer, ##Select: Cleric

Time to let SB use his role. Also, I believe the track can be very incriminating if he manages to track someone to a kill since we're not lynching him tonight.

yeah, or he could track someone doing nothing and it wouldn't even be a clear

[MancerNecro]

Then we know that player was not behind the scum's night kill that night. We can use the result to narrow down the number of players that could have been the one going on the night kill.

I'll need to ISO the remaining players too so give me some time (work might be busier today with everyone's motivations low since it's the godawful Monday over here).

[BBM]

also I just realized this but SB saying "I'm fine with being lynched" makes me really uneasy. That sounds genuine from Mancer, but SB plays on MotK, where townies lie down and let themselves get lynched because they assume it'll allow town to win (cough cough BT) and then town loses. And I've heard SB complaining about this a lot, so ugh.

[BBM]

Then we know that player was not behind the scum's night kill that night. We can use the result to narrow down the number of players that could have been the one going on the night kill.

but this means nothing? Knowing someone didn't go on the nightkill doesn't clear them of being scum, so it doesn't increase your chances of lynching scum at all.

[MancerNecro]

Hmm, it worked out better in my head urgh...

I just don't want to vote Archer if we're lynching you though since that's a waste of a class slot.

Don't vote Dark either, I'm essentially a vanilla now so voting Dark does nothing.

[eclipse]

Sorry, been playing with TiTS~!

eclipse, which element would be best for your JoaT?

Hmmmm. . .

Dark/Earth > Holy >> Water

should do it.

Then we know that player was not behind the scum's night kill that night. We can use the result to narrow down the number of players that could have been the one going on the night kill.

It's perfectly possible to track scum who's NOT on the kill. Lack of an action is null; action where there is not supposed to be is the tell.

[BBM]

no posts overnight the Brits have been SLACKING

anyways I have class until really late tonight. I ~may be back before phase end but if I am it'll be literally right before. I might be able to make some posts during the day but don't count on it.

Things you guys should do if you lynch me:

get Shin to fullclaim, asap

pick Holy as your element

Xinny should vig Shin > Beli > Refa/SB

Things you guys should do if you lynch Shin:

pick Earth as your element

I think I've made my cases and my defence as well as I can town. gl town PICK RIGHT FFS IT'S SO OBVIOUS

[Belisarius]

also I just can't buy that town has a cop, watcher, and tracker. Even with this game's mechanics, that's just too much. In some ways, the fact that they're spread over 3 elements is even more OP because it means there's like an 80% chance that at least one of the 3 is picked on any given night, going by probability, whereas if they were all in one element, sure you could use them all at once, but there'd only be like a 33% chance of the element even getting picked.

I don't see why you would think this way. If the investigation roles were all in one element, don't you think that the players would be able to immediately prove they had investigation roles by D2 if they lobbied their element D1? That would leave the mafia with only 2 or 3 viable targets and if the protective roles outed themselves we'd pick that element. This is a much more overpowered scenario than having them spread out. It doesn't make sense that you think the roles being spread out among elements is less balanced than having them together in one element.

Your homework today is to read through what I posted. . .or we can lynch you if you literally cannot be arsed to get your facts straight.

He's got a scumread on BBM, and then votes for the element his scumread requested.

. . .you're arguing with the person who you suspect is the cop, and saying that his role isn't useful in the subsequent comments.

I've read through your iso, so lynch me if you literally cannot be arsed to say something you haven't said. If you're trying to claim you are watcher then obviously we should vote water.

For someone who keeps trying to emphasize reading you sure are bad at it. I am the only one who wanted water but I'm not the only one who wanted wind. We wanted an investigative role and since BBM has a role that gives definitive information I preferred his.

Being intentionally vague for no reason is annoying right? I didn't suspect him as cop at the time, it wasn't until after that discussion that I went back and connected the dots.

Also good catch on that second point. Beli never answered it on his reply to you, but I'd like him to explain why 1) he thought that mafia knew that they targeted the dayvig and

2) how he figured that they'd be able to remove it immediately.

This is not what I said. I said "Shin - i dont see why the mafia would want to boulder the dayvig (they would have removed it immediately)" This means that when Xinnidy realized she was bouldered and she claimed dayvig, the mafia would have removed the boulder as soon as they could. Since they didn't, that's an indicator that Shin is town. I've already said I thought Shin got lucky and just targetted someone she thought wouldn't be killed N1 because it makes no sense to otherwise target Xinnidy.

I already explained why I thought Shins role would be able to remove it. He was either wind or fire and since we'd voted wind and fire again he should be able to choose a new target otherwise it would be a terrible role for both town and mafia.

##Vote BBM

##Select Water

[MancerNecro]

I think eclipse was referring to the fact that if you were voting for BBM, it must mean that you don't trust his Gravedigger claim. Hence, it's a contradiction to vote for the element that BBM claims he can use due to his role.

I've already tried to explain that Shin Omniguard role makes no sense as scum (to me, at least).

If I'm wrong about my reads, just blame me for it in postgame.

[BBM]

you don't know what else the boulder could do because Shin is being incredibly vague about it, which is super anti-town btw

Additionally, Refa's actions don't match up with scum (which I think will become clear once I flip town)

I could post more but there isn't really a point

##Unselect, ##Select: Cleric

gl town remember DON'T PICK FIRE TOMORROW