Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[BBM]

also a good quote

Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence.

[BBM]

Eclipse if you choose to use your Holy ability you should pick Earth as the element to lock IMO

also if you guys end up going with Watcher over Tracker, Beli should random between Eclipse and Mancer so that the mafia don't know exactly who to target to avoid. If you guys go with Tracker, SB should random between Shin, Beli, and Refa.

[BBM]

interesting statistic every game in which I've been mislynched (an incredibly large sample size of 3) I've correctly guessed the scumteam just before/after dying so make sure to vig/lynch Shin/Beli tomorrow

[BBM]

realtalk I was trying to pass Mancer in posts and then I realized he has like a 100 more than me

[Randa]

ded

tries to surpass mancer in # of post, doesnt even have twice as many posts as the n1 kill.

gg bbm

ded

[Refa]

I exist, I swear. Reading back now.

also a good quote

Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence.

The problem with incompetence is its inability to recognize itself.

[BBM]

well the point of quoting that was because you guys were ascribing malice to my incompetent actions of defending Marth... so really the problem is that you guys can't recognize my incompetence

[SB.]

This is more quotestrippy than I would've liked, but meh.

SB needs to realize that there are some things people do in scum games because they're scum and some things that they do in scum games that have nothing to do with their alignment. What's even scummy about the tone in #1046? "It sounds like your tone in SMT" isn't an answer unless you can say why my tone in SMT was specifically a product of my alignment there.

Um, this is kind of hard to describe. There's a weird tone to your post where it feels like you're going "OH MY GOD ITS SO OBVIOUS" when you're pushing someone really hard in a way that feels really false to me? It's hard to articulate, but I don't usually see stuff like that in your towngames iirc? I'm pretty sure you did something similar in SF3 too, but I'd have to check.

@Mancer, Prims has given scum provable roles in the past to use as safeclaims when scum get absolutely no benefit out of them. The part that makes me waver on it a bit more is how it fits with Rapier and how scum having two modconfirmed roles seems kind of strange? Although you could argue that the public tracker was never meant to be a safeclaim considering my role.

Also people are like... dividing the possible scumteams into Beli+Shin and BBM+Refa. I don't think this is a good idea because I think the only scumteams that really don't make sense are BBM+Shin and Refa+Shin. Shin+SB would be possible too, as would BBM+Beli and maaaaybe SB+Refa/BBM (probably not though).

I'll agree that it's not super confirmed but FMPOV the only other team that makes sense is you/Beli, so yeah.

also I just realized this but SB saying "I'm fine with being lynched" makes me really uneasy. That sounds genuine from Mancer, but SB plays on MotK, where townies lie down and let themselves get lynched because they assume it'll allow town to win (cough cough BT) and then town loses. And I've heard SB complaining about this a lot, so ugh.

The only time that happened was in Villains 1, and that was when Serela was behind the plan... I also thought the vengeful worked in LYLO so it'd be practically autowin anyway but I'm obviously against it now that came to light.

gl town remember DON'T PICK FIRE TOMORROW

Don't we need fire to activate Xin's vig? Idr.

I'm kind of getting cold feet about this at this point but at the same time the last three times or something we tried to turbowagon we let a scum lynch slip away and I will hate myself forever if I repeat Reclass, so.

Shin should probably be vigged if BBM flips town. If not, decide tomorrow.

[BBM]

no, selecting Fire today is what allows Xin to use the dayvig tomorrow. Selecting Fire tomorrow allows her to use the dayvig on D5, at which point it's basically the same as a lynch if the game isn't over.

hahaha look at SB distancing himself from my wagon; may be Beli + SB after all

also, if you're going to vig Shin if I flip town, doesn't that mean that a scumteam of me/Beli is in fact NOT the only possible scumteam FYPOV? It means that Beli/Shin is also possible, so what you're really saying is "BBM is scummier than Shin", not "BBM is the only scum possible out of the two of them". checkmate scum stop with your faulty POE

the same thing with BT happened in Town Mafia btw

[BBM]

btw it is in fact 100% objective fact that it is anti-town for Shin to not claim fully at this stage of the game. This may not be definitive proof of Shin being scum, but that wasn't the point of that post really; it was more to show that Shin's excuses for not claiming are BS.

[BBM]

man the problem with me using WIFOM so much is that now I'm unsure if SB would so obviously waffle about my wagon at this juncture when it wouldn't even be that many scumpoints for him to stay resolute about my lynch. I mean, pretty much everybody except Roofa thinks I'm scum so he could just go "MAN I GUESS I WAS WRONG" tomorrow and he would blend in pretty well with almost-confirmed-town Mancer and confirmed-town Xinny.

btw Eclipse you're 99% town but it is fully lame that you never took a stance on me.

[BBM]

oh, I meant SB + Shin in #1064, but SB + Beli is also possible though unlikely because I think town would need more than one investigative role

It is rather funny btw that both SB and Beli are going NO WAY IT IS TOTALLY POSSIBLE FOR 3 TOWN INVESTIGATIVE ROLES TO EXIST and then are suspecting each other 10/10 made me lol irl

and yes I know that it is possible to find someone scummy but disagree with a specific reason for it, but it's still funny

[SB.]

no, selecting Fire today is what allows Xin to use the dayvig tomorrow. Selecting Fire tomorrow allows her to use the dayvig on D5, at which point it's basically the same as a lynch if the game isn't over.

hahaha look at SB distancing himself from my wagon; may be Beli + SB after all

also, if you're going to vig Shin if I flip town, doesn't that mean that a scumteam of me/Beli is in fact NOT the only possible scumteam FYPOV? It means that Beli/Shin is also possible, so what you're really saying is "BBM is scummier than Shin", not "BBM is the only scum possible out of the two of them". checkmate scum stop with your faulty POE

the same thing with BT happened in Town Mafia btw

Oh, right.

I'm not gonna lie and say I feel 100% GOOD ABOUT THIS LYNCH when I don't. Your deadline posts are kind of making me waffle but after thinking on them more I think you could probably fake them as scum, and you suddenly jumping from me being likely town to scum seems kind of weird too.

I... literally listed Beli/Shin before, and meant that Beli/you was the only possible one that I didn't list previously. Shin doesn't really fit as town FMPOV if you don't flip scum anyway, and uh, yeah I think you're scummier than Shin? I've been arguing that since I subbed in, I think? I never said you were 100% confirmed scum either, so stop putting words in my mouth.

And I didn't read Town Mafia after I died iirc, so.

I can kind of agree on it the not claiming thing being pro-town but at the same time I don't see how claiming element has any particular antitown benefits, so meh.

[Refa]

Please forgive the long letter; I didn't have time to write a short one.

@Refa, I don't really agree with your townread reasons.

1) I don't get how having doubts on Rapier's scumslip makes him look townie? I'd be more wary of him if he didn't have any.

2) BBM tunneling Elieson means that he was directly responsible for Marth not getting lynched, or at least played a big part in it. So yeah I don't think that holds up too well either. Scum are also capable of hard tunnelling, I did it to you in SFMM4 for a while and to Darros in Fantasy, for examples.

3) I don't see what of BBM's early Marth interactions could be faked? He had no issues with realistically attacking his scumbuddies in SMT, and his later interactions really aren't good.

4) This is super biased and hinges on associative reads without flips, so.

5) This really shouldn't be part of your read considering SFMM4 happened.

Wrt my scumread on him:

1) Don't compare it to how he treated Randa, compare it to how he treated Bal/Shinori/Whoever it was.

3) You weren't pressing Marth, so its possible that he could just ignore you because of laziness. BBM was gunning for Marth HARD for like, half of Day 1 but Marth never said anything about him which is kind of ridiculous.

Would activating Beli's role to watch eclipse be better? Scum won't want to force a 1v1 or they'll get dayvigged, and if we bring a clear into 3p LYLO it's autowin because of Refa's vengeful. I'm also getting kind of wary that Shin seems to be practically sheeping everything I say, which is bugging me but at the same time I'm not sure how to respond to it?

Responses to your responses to my townread on BBM (fun fact, I initially typoed townread as scumread, go me):

1) How are you disagreeing with me if you'd be more wary if he didn't have any doubts?

2) Fair enough, but it came across more to me as his tunneling on Elieson in SFMM4 than yours.

3) I'm confused. I said BBM's earlier interactions with Marth were townier, and if you don't see how they could be faked, where is the disagreement? Anyways, I've already mentioned that this point is null because I agree that his interactions later on were scummy.

4) Yes.

5) Man, I was onto you the whole game so WHATEVER. Also you enabled a dumb lynch on bearclaw whereas the worst thing BBM has done is lynch Elieson (and unlike with bearclaw, I still understand his reasoning upon reading back).

Responses to your responses to my responses to your scumread on BBM:

1) I never bothered reading into his scumread on Bal/Shinori/w/e because I was already dead at the time; I'm just going off of my own experiences in that game.

2) That's a fair point.

Also if BBM is going to get lynched, I agree that we should try and activate Beli's role (I don't agree with BBM about him watching Mancer though, he should watch eclipse because she's 1) obvious town and 2) actually has a role that can still be used).

well the point of quoting that was because you guys were ascribing malice to my incompetent actions of defending Marth... so really the problem is that you guys can't recognize my incompetence

Hi Cam.

##Deselect

##Select: Water

[SB.]

oh, I meant SB + Shin in #1064, but SB + Beli is also possible though unlikely because I think town would need more than one investigative role

It is rather funny btw that both SB and Beli are going NO WAY IT IS TOTALLY POSSIBLE FOR 3 TOWN INVESTIGATIVE ROLES TO EXIST and then are suspecting each other 10/10 made me lol irl

and yes I know that it is possible to find someone scummy but disagree with a specific reason for it, but it's still funny

Beli's like, my lowest priority out of the unconfirmeds so lol.

[BBM]

well I meant that he should random out of Eclipse and Mancer because if we tell Beli to target Eclipse, the mafia will dodge him and target Mancer. Not giving him an exact target makes him more difficult to predict for the mafia.

Of course if Beli is scum he'll either fake a result or conveniently target the wrong person, so.

okay I misread that but my point still stands if you change some names around

[BBM]

not claiming element has anti-town benefits because it is harder to spec about element balance when we don't know what element Shin's boulder is out of Fire/Wind/Non-Elemental

on the converse it has no pro-town benefits at all

[BBM]

by the way I'll concede to putting words in your mouth by saying you said I was 100% scum but it is also true that before the last post saying you were getting cold feet, you never seriously considered the possibility I was town, beyond "well I guess if BBM is scum we should vig Shin..."

which is not really all that different from me going "I'll only go for Marth if nobody wants to lynch Elie". I never said I was 100% sure Elie was scum either- I just said that I was confident that he'd flip scum, which has pretty much been your stance on me

[Refa]

Thoughts are shadows of our feelings -- always darker, emptier, and simpler.

man the problem with me using WIFOM so much is that now I'm unsure if SB would so obviously waffle about my wagon at this juncture when it wouldn't even be that many scumpoints for him to stay resolute about my lynch. I mean, pretty much everybody except Roofa thinks I'm scum so he could just go "MAN I GUESS I WAS WRONG" tomorrow and he would blend in pretty well with almost-confirmed-town Mancer and confirmed-town Xinny.

btw Eclipse you're 99% town but it is fully lame that you never took a stance on me.

I'd agree with this. Like unless you're scumbuddies with SB (in which case him waffling makes him look townier because it comes across less as bussing which is something SB would need to do as scum, heh), there's really no benefit to him waffling when he could've just disappeared and said WELP I WAS WRONG TOMORROW. Pretty sure he did that in SFMM4.

[SB.]

@Refa

1) The point is that BBM's action was null, as the alternative would've made him look much worse.

2) That's probably going to happen because BBM and I aren't the same person (crazy I know)

3) Should be couldn't, not could. Oops.

5) I didn't actually expect the bearclaw lynch to go through lmao, but this isn't relevant anyway? The point is I was able to make cases that were good enough that people wanted to sheep them (Weapons sheeped my case on you, for example.)

1) You were. He scumread him Day 1, and then turned around on it completely Day 2.

If we DO activate Beli, it's best to just have him sit on an eclipse to work as a protective role, imo. It forces scum to shoot a functional vanilla or something instead. I'm kind of leaning towards keeping my role on though because I'm essentially a cop if we lynch scum today though.

@BBM, I guess? But that's like, super minor and at this point he could've figured something out anyway. The scum gain for not claiming is about equal to the attention he gets from it imo, so shrug.

I guess the bit about me not considering you as town before is fair, but shrug. I've just had a decently strong scumread on you since like, reading along LD1 so. I'd say the interactions obviously made you look worse than what I did in the case that you're scum, but that scenario doesn't matter to you at all so shrug.

It's sad that my meta has gotten to the point that pushing mislynches as scum would apparently make me look townier. I didn't even bus in SFMM4 except when scum/scum wagons happened, and I tried my hardest to mislynch Refa before then ;_;

[Refa]

@Refa

1) The point is that BBM's action was null, as the alternative would've made him look much worse.

2) That's probably going to happen because BBM and I aren't the same person (crazy I know)

3) Should be couldn't, not could. Oops.

5) I didn't actually expect the bearclaw lynch to go through lmao, but this isn't relevant anyway? The point is I was able to make cases that were good enough that people wanted to sheep them (Weapons sheeped my case on you, for example.)

1) You were. He scumread him Day 1, and then turned around on it completely Day 2.

If we DO activate Beli, it's best to just have him sit on an eclipse to work as a protective role, imo. It forces scum to shoot a functional vanilla or something instead. I'm kind of leaning towards keeping my role on though because I'm essentially a cop if we lynch scum today though.

1) Fair enough.

2) Become who you are! ##SB

3) Oh...that would make more sense. The difference to this from SMT to me is that in SMT, he attacked Lucifer's #1 Fangirl for a relatively minor reason and never bothered to reevaluate his stance until D2. Here he KIND OF did the same thing with Marth WRT the relatively minor thing, but he did constantly update his read and changed it before D2. Also I thought the reason he changed his read on the fangirl in the first place was because the scumteam was down 1 man on D2 and bussing at that point would be suicidal.

5) Aha. Like I said before, I agree that Scum!BBM can make good cases as scum, but it's still a point in his favor even if it's not as strong as the others (for example, even though I can make good cases as scum, there are games where I've been pretty obviously scum like FFTA).

1) Yeah, but my point is I wasn't alive when the fangirl was killed (so I never bothered to reevaluate my read on Deathbound because I just asked Marthipan who was scum as soon as I died).

Well FMPOV, BBM isn't scum and everyone should sheep my Shin case (QProgue Mafia: Needed more sheeping 8.8/10 rent before buying), so that's why I'm voting Water.

[Shin]

Hey, I kinda exist but not really, I'm back at uni and I have like everything to sort out. BBM, me not explaining my role down to the last detail is a pretty poor reason to get on my case. I've pretty much explained it all throughout the game and the "wow, Shin isn't telling us stuff even though it's like 1am for him, totes scum" is a definite smear.

I'm still sensing a massive BBM and Refa bromance. I'm getting mixed messages from the post above this one. He concedes to like every point SB has but then says "but I'm still townreading BBM". So contrary!

[Refa]

The only point I agree with was the first one, which changed a townpoint into a null point. Besides, the irrationality of a thing is no argument against its existence, rather a condition of it.

[MancerNecro]

Urgh, waking up to mafia is bad. I've only skimmed through the posts except the parts that referred to me.

Shin, you need to full claim. I can see where BBM is coming from. You seem to be so busy though and don't ever full claim when you drop by for that one or two posts every 24 hours so it's annoying.

I doubt Shin can remove the boulder on his own or he would have done it by now to let scum kill Xinnidy (if Shin was really scum). The only other possible explanation is that Shin's town. Or there's some convoluted plot and setup meant to let scum hide among town.

BBM's later posts sound very apathetic and I don't like it. It sounds like "I don't care" and "I want to get more posts than Mancer" like he's no longer trying to achieve a win for town anymore.

Honestly, I also have some instinctive ability to find scum but I never have the ability to prove that they're scum in thread ever (look at the first ever mafia I played when I subbed for Tables and I tunneled on Levity trying to lynch her cause I just somehow had the feeling that she's scum).

Refa and SB's exchange is useless because they are just tossing the same points back and forth. In fact, until Xinnidy, eclipse, Shin and Bellysaurus, any discussions we have will just be the same points being repeated over and over again between SB, BBM, Refa and I. At least one of SB and Refa is scum FMPOV though because of how much clutter their discussion is making.

[MancerNecro]

We should still lynch someone today since we can still afford a mislynch and misvig.

If we end up not lynching, Day 4 will be a MyLo instead of LyLo which is not that much different at all so we might as well increase the number of players who we lynch and vig so we can discuss something from their flips and reads.