Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

Also I'm just going to vote Fire again because I don't want to die after being clear (Beli should watch eclipse this time ;/ so she doesn't die either). Was that life? Well then, once more!

##Select: Fire

[eclipse]

Prims is this flat-out MYLO or potential MYLO?

(this is relevant to my interests)

I figured the Macho part of my role was important, because if that boulder landed on me, I'd most likely end up being some sort of permanent safeguard thing (in other words, even worse off). I'll. . .get to content later. When I don't feel like crying due to lots of unrelated things.

[Prims]

I can't specify

[Shin]

OK, you think Belisarius is scum...why? How can you feel more confident in voting him over me/Shin when all you said yesterday was how obvious town he was and today you've said nothing about his content at all; I'm all about 180's (see: all of my town games everywhere), but it has to come from SOMETHING. If Shin was town, then scum would kill a investigative role over him (SB/Beli) because Xinny said that she would be vigging him today if BBM flipped town. Like it's so obvious that he's the only one who would benefit from that lol.

This is pretty reasonable logic, but surely if I did that as scum, I'd be asking to be lynched - and it's really suboptimal play.

[SB.]

Getting motivated to do a full reread has proven pretty much impossible, so I just hit up ISOs instead >.>

My point is that you've showed some signs of regret or reluctance at almost every lynch, as if to distance your slot from them. Even though you weren't there for the Eli lynch, the comment came across in a way to suggest that.

Belly, you misunderstand why I didn't share details of my role. My role PM indicated that some sort of strongman may exist, but I didn't imply that a strongman could break through my rock to dissuade scum from trying, the "any" actions part of the announcement is vague. If you're thinking that my interactions with Refa and SB make it unlikely I'm scum with either of them, that may suggest something about my alignment.

When I wasn't around for one and heavily advocated the other? This accusation is pretty weak.

You basically said the same thing about me so this defense kind of falls apart.

Mancer, Shin would be dead already if Xinnidy was still alive and we would've had an extra townsided kill to work with either way. Xin dying isn't telling because any scumteam could have made that kill. And uh, even if it wasn't this logic fails because scum!Shin doesn't want to get shot. This goes for what Refa said about Shin too because scum doesn't need to worry about theoretical town!watcher beli and the only other information role we have isn't active right now.

I'm leaning towards Refa being town on here on the grounds that he could've just gone along with the suspicions on me that basically everyone other than eclipse had and tried to get my lynch for the win.

After reading Shin's ISO, I think him being buddies with Beli is plausible. He sort of prod and pokes him throughout the game without ever really having a defined suspicion on him until Day 3 where he throws a townread on him based on interactions, and then never went back to update his read on him after, even though today is MYLO. Beli basically said that Shin was obvtown based on the boulder stuff until today too, aside from a one liner comment on him before then.

I thought Beli's interactions with Marth made him look better, but in hindsight it looks kind of forced? He only really states an opinion on Marth when it looks like he's going to be wagoned and jumps on, so I can see him as scum willing to try and bus? I also don't think Marth calling for him to be dayvigged is too telling either considering Xin was tearing into Rapier I can see scum taking the risk there, especially since if either Marth or Beli got shot the other would look pretty good on the surface.

Beli picking up on cop!kirsche also kind of worries me because I'm not sure if he would think of that on his own? And there's no real evidence of him figuring out before he says it on Day 3 in thread, considering his tendency to ignore half the game.

##Select: Holy

We need to hammer something soon for the extension, I think. Prims votals pls.

[Shin]

When I wasn't around for one and heavily advocated the other? This accusation is pretty weak.

You basically said the same thing about me so this defense kind of falls apart.

Actually the top part is about you! Fall apart in your own time, bro.

SB, you started a case on BBM and countered all his points. Before his lynch you suddenly started saying how you doubted your read but let it happen anyway. You're also setting up lynches and then jumping ship on them. If you think I'm scum, vote me now. Don't sit on the fence like you've been doing for the last couple of lynches.

[Belisarius]

Shin/SB - Quote didn't want a Shin lynch D1. SB asked some clarifying questions about Shin's role and pushed/voted Shin D2 when it seemed like he may have been in danger of getting lynched - though the only other likely lynchee was Marth. SB pretty hard defended Shin D3 after voting him previously. SB says Shin is a decent lynch target D4. SBs side of this is allows me to believe they could be partners.

Shin votes for Quote D1 though he is in almost no danger of getting lynched. No D2 interaction. Shin thinks SB is a bad lynch target D3 after sheeping his BBM case. Shin votes for SB D4. Overall I can see this as a partnership.

SB/Refa - Quote townreads Refa D1. SB townreads Refa D2 and townreads him again after he claims bpv/vengeful. D3 SB votes Refa when there weren't a lot of votes yesterday and had a reasonable case. Questions Refa's townreading of BBM but unvotes. From SBs side they make slightly more sense as not partners.

D1 Refa doesn't mention SB/Quote. D2 Refa mentions SBs meta as mafia and then townreads him. D3 defends his other townreads from SB then townreads SB again. D4 agrees with SB about strongman/Shin. There's a possibility of a partnership here but seems less likely.

Refa/Shin - D1 Refa scumreads and eventually votes Shin for making a bad vote based on making a bad vote. Unvotes when other people vote Shin based on him being "lazy." D2 votes Shin again based on a town Elie interaction. D3 scumreads and votes Shin again also using his interactions with Rapier flipped. D4 scumreads Shin since Shin lied about parts of her role.. The only time during any of these days where Shin was in danger of getting lynched was D2. Based on Refa they don't make sense as partners.

D1 Shin townreads Refa. D2 Shin votes Refa claiming he is uninspired but says it was a prod vote. D3 Shin scumreads Refa but no votes. This seems very unlikely as a partnership.

With that being done it reaffirms my independent reads.

##Vote Shin

Beli picking up on cop!kirsche also kind of worries me because I'm not sure if he would think of that on his own?

And there's no real evidence of him figuring out before he says it on Day 3 in thread, considering his tendency to ignore half the game.

I definitely did figure that out on my own, after our discussion I took the time to go back and think about why he was pushing wind so oddly. Notice that I didn't really mention kirsche or eclipse afterward.

What you're saying here is I should have advertised to everyone that kirsche was the cop? That doesn't make any sense.

##Select Water

[Shin]

Belly, that's literally the total opposite of what you said earlier, where me being scum with someone apparently didn't quite click. I am calling Beli/SB as the scumteam. Beli has had one weak vote on SB for "Via being scummy and SB being neutral" and SB is fence sitting with Beli and passes him off as neutral.

[Shin]

I'm going to bed now, bros and broettes! It'd be kinda neat not to be lynched in my sleep but a Shin can dream!

[Belisarius]

Belly, that's literally the total opposite of what you said earlier, where me being scum with someone apparently didn't quite click. I am calling Beli/SB as the scumteam. Beli has had one weak vote on SB for "Via being scummy and SB being neutral" and SB is fence sitting with Beli and passes him off as neutral.

Shin, don't call me Belly.

It's not opposite what I said earlier. I had you as my strongest scumread and then I mentioned some quick things about possible scumteams based on what I remembered from interactions. I literally just went through the interactions and have you and SB as the most likely scumteam, with you and Refa the second most likely. So tell me what is opposite to what I said?

[eclipse]

Beli picking up on cop!kirsche also kind of worries me because I'm not sure if he would think of that on his own? And there's no real evidence of him figuring out before he says it on Day 3 in thread, considering his tendency to ignore half the game.

This is null, for two reasons:

1. I feel it makes a statement about Beli's intelligence, which has nothing to do with his alignment.

2. He DID point out one part of his ISO where he got into a kerfuffle with kirsche over roles.

Assuming that Beli didn't come to the conclusion on his own, who out of the living players do you think would've figured it out? I still think he's scum because of inconsistent logic. . .like this.

I watched Mancer last night. Nobody targetted him.

I definitely did figure that out on my own, after our discussion I took the time to go back and think about why he was pushing wind so oddly. Notice that I didn't really mention kirsche or eclipse afterward.

What you're saying here is I should have advertised to everyone that kirsche was the cop? That doesn't make any sense.

(apparently, someone who he's positive the cop cleared and has active abilities is less likely to be killed than the guy who claims to be vanilla)

eclipse, did your earlier night actions get anything useful?

I MISSED THIS I'M SORRY!

N1 - nope

N2 - inconclusive

N3 - NOPE

As for element. . .##Vote: Holy

[Shin]

It's not opposite what I said earlier. I had you as my strongest scumread and then I mentioned some quick things about possible scumteams based on what I remembered from interactions. I literally just went through the interactions and have you and SB as the most likely scumteam, with you and Refa the second most likely. So tell me what is opposite to what I said?

You said that my interactions with both Refa and SB weren't great for indication of a scumteam. It's also a massive jump from what you were saying yesterday where you said I was definitely town, where I've magically become scum overnight and you seem to have remembered a whole tonne of reasons from before.

I'm still convinced that SB/Beli is the scumteam, it's the only one left FMPOV that remotely makes sense and their non-definite stance on each other only adds to things. I'm willing to swap for a Beli lynch, I need to head out but I shall return!

[MancerNecro]

Urgh, overwheled by work and was unable to post. I will clear up the rest of the clutter here and proceed to making an actual post some time tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Prims]

Day 4.1 Votals

Belisarius (1) - MancerNecro

SB. (1) - Shin

Shin (1) Belisarius

Not Voting (3) - eclipse, SB., Refa

Class Selection

Cleric (3) - SB., MancerNecro, eclipse

Viking (1) - Belisarius

Fighter (1) - Refa

Indecisive (1): Shin

You have 18 hours and 40 minutes left in the phase. With 6 alive, it takes 4 to hammer.

[Belisarius]

(apparently, someone who he's positive the cop cleared and has active abilities is less likely to be killed than the guy who claims to be vanilla)

I don't know what you think is inconsistent about it. Last phase, 3 or 4 people said I should watch you last night, making you the all too obvious choice. I watched Mancer since I I thought there was a higher chance I'd get the kill information.

You said that my interactions with both Refa and SB weren't great for indication of a scumteam. It's also a massive jump from what you were saying yesterday where you said I was definitely town, where I've magically become scum overnight and you seem to have remembered a whole tonne of reasons from before.

You're straight up ignoring what I just said to you. I just went over the possible scumteams in detail. Out of the three, I found you and SB make the most sense as a possible team. What I said yesterday was a quick thought based on what I remembered from going through your isos. It is outdated after I went through everyone again with the intention of finding interactions.

It's also not that massive a jump, I thought you were town based on your role, now I think you're likely to be scum based on what you lied about of your role and some previous interactions (or lack of). I didn't suddenly remember a ton of reasons. You might want to actually read what I said.

[Shin]

##Unvote

##Vote: Beli

Townread to scumread is quite a jump, especially since you barely voiced any suspicion before hand other than "Rapier waffle". You've been coasting for much of the game. Just because you don't like someone's response to your posts doesn't mean they're ignoring you. I didn't share the full details of my role, there's a difference between that and lying. The attempt to mudsling me for not sharing the exact workings of my role with scum really isn't particularly strong.

[Refa]

This'll definitely excuse my lack of posting in like forever, right? Right?? This is my way, what is your way? The way doesn't exist.

##Deselect

##Select: Holy

[Refa]

Getting motivated to do a full reread has proven pretty much impossible, so I just hit up ISOs instead >.>

After reading Shin's ISO, I think him being buddies with Beli is plausible. He sort of prod and pokes him throughout the game without ever really having a defined suspicion on him until Day 3 where he throws a townread on him based on interactions, and then never went back to update his read on him after, even though today is MYLO. Beli basically said that Shin was obvtown based on the boulder stuff until today too, aside from a one liner comment on him before then.

I thought Beli's interactions with Marth made him look better, but in hindsight it looks kind of forced? He only really states an opinion on Marth when it looks like he's going to be wagoned and jumps on, so I can see him as scum willing to try and bus? I also don't think Marth calling for him to be dayvigged is too telling either considering Xin was tearing into Rapier I can see scum taking the risk there, especially since if either Marth or Beli got shot the other would look pretty good on the surface.

Beli picking up on cop!kirsche also kind of worries me because I'm not sure if he would think of that on his own? And there's no real evidence of him figuring out before he says it on Day 3 in thread, considering his tendency to ignore half the game.

##Select: Holy

We need to hammer something soon for the extension, I think. Prims votals pls.

I couldn't even get motivated enough to do ISO's at all, come at me bro (apparently I'm lazier when I'm cleared whoops).

Sheeping your Shin/Beli read; in addition to what you said, he was scumreading Beli (and Rapier) earlier and dropped both suspicions with no explanation (until prodded) on the following day. Also regarding today, it bothers me that they're both convinced that you're scum and yet voting for each other (like neither of them thought "hmm maybe my secondary scumread shouldn't be the same as the person's I'm voting for in MYLO"); seems like Training Mafia to me (yeah, I know there's no forced 1v1 between scum here, but moreso the cases). As for Beli voting Marthipan, I thought it was more likely to come from town so Imma gonna have to reread that. I agree that Xinny was most likely going to dayvig Rapier that day, so whoever Marthipan/Beli called to get dayvigged wouldn't make a difference either way.

Also me/SB have been on together since Shin voted Beli, so we can't be the scumteam. :> "But Refa, you can't be scum with anyone anyways" shut up hypothetical contrarian jerk.

##Unvote

##Vote: Beli

Townread to scumread is quite a jump, especially since you barely voiced any suspicion before hand other than "Rapier waffle". You've been coasting for much of the game. Just because you don't like someone's response to your posts doesn't mean they're ignoring you. I didn't share the full details of my role, there's a difference between that and lying. The attempt to mudsling me for not sharing the exact workings of my role with scum really isn't particularly strong.

You not sharing your role is antitown, regardless of alignment.

Anyways, just going with the read that I feel strongest about. Still have to reread Mancer when I find my motivation (Beli makes more sense as a scumbuddy to me now but I want to make sure). Our faith in others betrays that we would rather have faith in ourselves.

##Vote: Shin

[Refa]

Also now that Holy's been hammered, time to pick the CLEARLY BEST element. He who has peace of mind disturbs neither himself nor another.

##Select: Fire

[SB.]

Refa, does your vengeful only deactivate in MYLO or in LYLO as well?

[SB.]

Actually the top part is about you! Fall apart in your own time, bro.

SB, you started a case on BBM and countered all his points. Before his lynch you suddenly started saying how you doubted your read but let it happen anyway. You're also setting up lynches and then jumping ship on them. If you think I'm scum, vote me now. Don't sit on the fence like you've been doing for the last couple of lynches.

shhh i thought you were replying to beli at that point okay

I didn't back down from the lynch because... turbolynches have literally never went well for town, and the last two games I remembered them happening in had scum as the leading wagon before the turbo, and I would've been really mad at myself if I let that happen again. My doubt also wasn't strong enough to dissuade me (and I'm pretty sure I made this clear) and it would've just been way easier to say "yeah I'm still cool with this". It's pretty obvious I think you're scum but why the fuck would you want me to vote you in *YLO as town? It looks like you're just trying to get a shitty reaction out of me.

Beli: Me/Shin makes no sense as a scumteam lol because there's no reason for Shin to have spent so long blatantly sheeping me, since it would've looked horrible when either of us flipped. It makes more sense for scum!Shin to have just gone along with what a townie who misread him was doing than that, and he was capable of acting independently of me when we were buddies in Semi-Precious anyway.

I'm not 100% there on the Refa is clear logic but I think he looks townie enough on his own merits regardless.

@eclipse, I don't think Beli's theoretical buddy matters in this scenario considering Marth was still alive to figure it out regardless. Alternatively he could've had a rolecop report or something (I guess) but kirsche wasn't considered super townie at that point by a lot of people so I don't see scum taking a shot at him without knowledge of his role. I don't think the watch target is particularly telling considering you're still alive either way but eh.

[Refa]

Refa, does your vengeful only deactivate in MYLO or in LYLO as well?

It only deactives in LYLO (same goes for the BPV, presumably so that if scum quickhammers they don't shoot me and get fucked). Wellbeing is attained by little and little, and nevertheless is no little thing by itself.

Also personally I think Beli's choice of target is null. Like if he was scum, he'd know who was going to die last night, so it wouldn't really mattered who he'd watch; if he was town, then the reasoning he gave makes sense.

[Refa]

Actually scum would still win, so I have no idea what the fuck is up with that (I just came up with the reasoning by myself, obviously Prims didn't tell me that lol). Maybe so town can't No Lynch in LYLO and not lose? *shrugs* The knowledge of anything, since all things have causes, is not acquired or complete unless it is known by its causes.

[SB.]

So, do we need to activate Fire today to use your vengeful tomorrow?

[Refa]

Yeah, pretty much. Knowledge is not for knowing; knowledge is for cutting.