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New Arkham Mafia - SK wins - Gratz to everyone who had fun!


Balcerzak
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Cult and maf can't join its not in their best interest. Cult doesn't want to kill town, they want to focus on removing maf as soon as possible. On the other hand maf wants to kill both cult and town, with the obvious kill priority being focused on town. In addition any attempts to joint would require open communications which would be absolute suicide on the part of mafia.

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I suppose I should interrupt your fun for an (ir)regularly scheduled votals:

Being voted [number of votes]: voted by

Gaius [5]: Weapons, Izhuark, Randa, Paper, Chen

Izhuark [4]: Snike, Crysta, Gaius

Crysta [1]: SB.

Not Voting [1]: Wen

If I've misplaced your (un)vote, please bring it to my attention, I'm only human.

I might have to prod Wen it looks like. Other than that, I think these votals are correct, though there was the eclipse confusion to worry about.

Edit: I've also calculated that adding 8 hours to deadline seems fair on account of what was lost to the eclipse and what would be a reasonable time for me personally, if this unduly inconveniences someone, please pm me with your grievances.

Edited by Balcerzak
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Idk Gaius's self-preservation seems like he's going to eventually backstab town and joint with mafia/cult, cause yeah otherwise he'd just be town bitch. We've been 1/2 on lynches so far and would be 2/3 and Gaius has really only contributed to lowering the numbers, so I think we'll be fine. Actually I'm starting to think Snike and/or Crysta are anti-lynch in a reverse towncred kind of way with joint bonus.

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I kind of think we're fucked regardless of what we do at this point unless crossfire occurs, which maf /should/ aim for considering cult might outnumber them tonight if they don't. Keeping Gaius alive means we have another potential source of it, although maybe I'm just being dumb.

Mafia sucks.

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Listen. Lynching me, worst case scenario, is 3 Mafia, 3 cult and 4 townies left. Lynching probable scum and having me shoot scum, is a slightly better than zero chance for you guys to win.

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Cult and maf can't join its not in their best interest. Cult doesn't want to kill town, they want to focus on removing maf as soon as possible. On the other hand maf wants to kill both cult and town, with the obvious kill priority being focused on town. In addition any attempts to joint would require open communications which would be absolute suicide on the part of mafia.

This

"We lose lynch control" assumes maf and cult are gonna group up and start lynching townies which is most likely not going to happen because it requires one group to out in thread and the other to respond and agree, rather than just stay quiet and let the outing dude get lynched.

What is Gaius claiming his wincon is anyway?

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Statiscally speaking in multiball town have a little advantage over scum because of the cross fire that WILL happen and gaius adding his grain of salt will not help town since at best it will soon shuffle the cards again while killing one of the scum or two and at worst he will bacstab us.

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arf i posted by mistake... So i will finish my post.

and at worst he wil backstab us leaving one or two town dead and shuffle the cards. In my humble opinion the risk largely outcome the potential profit in there...

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We don't know in some games rules for cult change (for exemple there is some variant that give a faction kill to cult after the leader is dead)... Can those who where cult can confirm that they can do nothing on mafia other than vote control ?

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Statiscally speaking in multiball town have a little advantage over scum because of the cross fire that WILL happen and gaius adding his grain of salt will not help town since at best it will soon shuffle the cards again while killing one of the scum or two and at worst he will bacstab us.

Show me the statistics that back that we should be keeping gaius, a confirmed anti-town, alive. You can't because there aren't any. Right now we are realistically in a 5-3-2-1 and at worst in a 4-3-3-1. So let's look at the statistics and math of the situation. If we agree not to lynch gaius after the second role and alignment shuffle in as many days, then we have a 50% chance of getting anti-town off of just pure luck. Rather than go for the 100% chance of getting anti-town if we actually lynch him. That's a pretty obvious choice, in addition we get solid associative reads based on people's reactions today and how they handle the whole SK business.

"But crossfire helps town" it might, if weren't in a situation where a mislynch and then gaius betraying town doesn't eliminate towns chances of winning and essentially force a king maker. And we were in a situation where the SK could actually have a reasonable shot a shooting, pun intended, other anti-town factions. Except we have nothing to go off of with regards to alignment, except for a freaking turbo which is the only way gaius isn't getting lynched today. And we all know how useful turbo lynches are for associative reads. Or anything for that matter.

The roles will shuffle when we kill gaius, not if but when because anti-town factions, by definition can not joint with town. So let's look at it this way do we want to shuffle roles again when we actually have reads to go off of, but having an SK is no longer beneficial to town, not that it would ever be in the first place, or do we want to have them shuffled now while we still have next to no information on anybody's alignment.

This and common sense both say kill the SK

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It still is so dumb to lynch me. So what I'm confirmed scum? I'm so much of a smaller threat than Mafia and Cult. I would shoot Izuhark if you kept me alive.

again, we can't scum like you to do favors like that for the rest of us!

We don't know in some games rules for cult change (for exemple there is some variant that give a faction kill to cult after the leader is dead)... Can those who where cult can confirm that they can do nothing on mafia other than vote control ?

i was cult leader, and i think i could attempt to recruit them?

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