Realm of Mirrors - Game Over

[SB.]

10/2/2

Town PRs for comparison's sake

Masq / Mirror:

Cop / Watcher

BG / BG

Decoy / Decoy

2x RB / Mayor

Useless JoaT / Sidekick

[Refa]

Hahahaha, are the PR's really that similar? That's great. Were any of the scum roles similar to Ocean's?

My only issue is that that game had 14p and this game had 13. Assuming no crossfire, worst possible scum lynch every day, and no successful roleblocks, town would still be allowed one mislynch (which kind of sucks if you ask me but it could be worse). Here, unless the mayor makes it to the final two, town's kind of boned (especially since none of the town roles actually prevent kills).

[Refa]

"Refa, just read through the game" NO YOU

[SB.]

I was literally a Mafia Miller that game so no our roles were nowhere near as strong as Ocean's.

[SB.]

I kind of forgot that this game was 13p though so I guess I could be wrong?

[Elieson]

On the train home but I need to do some stuff after I get back so speedposting now.

I still feel like it's multiball over SK because of Yellow!Ocean and how similar this setup is to Masquerade.

Shin, coming from someone who is also townreading Refa, why are you completely discounting him here?

With 5 alive and 1 flipped non-town dude, the game having 2:2 antitown means the game is already over, unless this is how we decide who's the winning mafia faction and right now Town is left to decide as it's technically 2:2:1.

If that's the state of the game, I'm sad. That means there's only one other townie than myself and that feeling of being outnumbered/parity'd but still playing is suck

Not unless he like has kill protection from people he decoys (and even then, it'd be a pretty horrible fakeclaim). In theory, he could just be straight up lying about his role but I think he'd just claim vanilla in that scenario. Also who do you think is mafia, Elie?

As far as ocean's theoretical partner, I REALLY thought it was Freyja and perhaps Shin. I don't get why he voted me the other day over Freyja, when he's called me "freyja's bussing buddy" in his vote-for-me post but hasn't come around to change his reads or anything, and voted for me just because he didn't want to put Freyja on the block. IMO if he were town and that convinced that I was freyja's buddy, he wouldn't throw a vote out on me because he would be more cautious to place a vote before confirmed association in the first place. Freyja flipping town has basically bumfucked Shin's case on me but he's still clinging onto it, just w/o a vote.

I'm paranoid af over SB because I can't shake the idea of SB not being decoy but something similar which could drive kills away since if it is multiball or Maf/SK then SB would need some kind of role to keep himself alive considering Mafia had protection via Oceans. Looking at the NK pattern, info and protection are dying almost in a straight line and there hasn't been much of a non-powerful PR kill yet so maybe it just isn't SB's turn.

When you say multiball, what exactly do you mean? Yesterday, I assumed you meant 2/2, but then you kind of dropped that after I responded. I could see it being like 10/1/1/1 but Ocean's role had a removed QT link so yeah.

Ocean's factionchat implies at least 2ppl scumteam. 2 nights of 2 unexplained deaths means that kills are coming from somewhere. I assume that the it's 10:2:1 not 9:2:2 or w/e.

So yea,

Nontown = Shin/SB and tbh I'm solidly townreading Refa still inb4 i'm making a huge mistake again

I should probably look at Junko more but I don't see him attempting to kill SB and drawing a bodyguardKO from zerosabers based on this post. It's just too damn obvious to kill the guy you're hard-townreading and basically defending.

[Elieson]

if it isn't clear, I'm not actually confident that SB is scum, I'm just paranoid over the role

I'd wager maybe 40% for shin, 25% for SB and like 5-10% for Refa/Junko as being scum

[Refa]

Is the other 25% for you?

[SB.]

Even if I wasn't a Decoy, why would I claim "go kill yourself: the role" as SK? People would expect me to die way earlier in the game.

Gone for now.

[Refa]

I was literally a Mafia Miller that game so no our roles were nowhere near as strong as Ocean's.

Yeah, I thought that stronger scum roles would point towards there being less scum but I didn't want to be wrong and have you be like "nah man, all of Mystery Mafia's scum roles were OP as fuck" so I just covertly asked you.

As far as ocean's theoretical partner, I REALLY thought it was Freyja and perhaps Shin. I don't get why he voted me the other day over Freyja, when he's called me "freyja's bussing buddy" in his vote-for-me post but hasn't come around to change his reads or anything, and voted for me just because he didn't want to put Freyja on the block. IMO if he were town and that convinced that I was freyja's buddy, he wouldn't throw a vote out on me because he would be more cautious to place a vote before confirmed association in the first place. Freyja flipping town has basically bumfucked Shin's case on me but he's still clinging onto it, just w/o a vote.

I should probably look at Junko more but I don't see him attempting to kill SB and drawing a bodyguardKO from zerosabers based on this post. It's just too damn obvious to kill the guy you're hard-townreading and basically defending.

After that vote, I thought it was Freyja/you TBH and he was just gambitting because his slot was already doomed. That's the kind of stuff that I'd do as confirmed scum, anyways. I haven't really been looking at the Freyja lynch very much (mostly because he definitely had it coming, his town flip does nothing to change that for me), but that's a pretty good point on Shin.

I should probably read that post but my Junk read is moreso based on his interactions w/Ocean. Also why are you so sure that Junk tried to kill SB (as opposed to Boron)?

[Elieson]

Is the other 25% for you?

Yes. We'll go with that

Yeah, I thought that stronger scum roles would point towards there being less scum but I didn't want to be wrong and have you be like "nah man, all of Mystery Mafia's scum roles were OP as fuck" so I just covertly asked you.

After that vote, I thought it was Freyja/you TBH and he was just gambitting because his slot was already doomed. That's the kind of stuff that I'd do as confirmed scum, anyways. I haven't really been looking at the Freyja lynch very much (mostly because he definitely had it coming, his town flip does nothing to change that for me), but that's a pretty good point on Shin.

I should probably read that post but my Junk read is moreso based on his interactions w/Ocean. Also why are you so sure that Junk tried to kill SB (as opposed to Boron)?

mlp flashbacks

That's a fabulous point though at this moment I'm assuming Junko = Town and didn't kill anybody, hence my thought on him being scum and attempting to kill SB. Though I didn't even think of him killing Boron. Hell maybe Boron was targetted by 2 kills and zerosabers only ate one of them, in which case I'm even more lost since that brings priorities into the fray

[Refa]

Oh, I just noticed that Zerosabers role only works on the first killing action. Honestly, it'd be pretty hilarious if both scum and the SK targeted Boron after she said this.

Paper and SB role stuff: what I'm getting is that both Paper and SB targeted me, and Cam likely did too. Guys, I'm really not that interesting!

Seriously though, I don't that can be the case considering that SB redirected Zerosabers to himself.

[Refa]

*I don't think

[SB.]

No, you don't

May have figured something out. Post coming when I get to my laptop so I can actually check some stuff?

[Refa]

NO

[Shin]

OK, I'm back after 11 hours of death work.

I think I explained my Refa town read in a previous post. Actually I don't think I did. His exchange with SB early on puts him in a good light, catching SB with role stuff but then realising he's wrong looked pretty towny. Plus there's his general flow in the game, I don't think he'd have contributed as much to the Oceans lynch if he were his scumbuddy.

I admit both my Freyjadour and Ocean reads were wrong. I have almost no interactions with Ocean, although I did question a few of the early votes on him and asked Refa for clarification. Whilst I can see that looked bad, I never really turned around and bussed him, I legitimately thought he was town.

I dislike how Eli says that I'm desperately holding onto a read. I said quite clearly that I was about to go to work and would post properly later. Later just turned out to be half a day later! There are 5 players left in the game, and I figure there are probably two scum. If I'm townreading SB and Refa, logically that means from my point of view, Eli and Junko are more likely to be scum. I specifically stated my Eli vote was 1. Because I thought he was scum and 2. Because I didn't want to hammer Freyjadour unintentionally.

Both SB and Refa contributed to the Oceans lynch, which adds to the reasons I think they're unlikely to be scum. Eli has no interactions with Ocean at all, whilst Junko seems to think they're constantly null but perhaps slightly scummy but never really acts on it? I mean, I get why my interactions with Ocean look pretty bad, but it's not going to really help the game if I try to justify myself constantly.

[SB.]

Wrt the N1 kill, there are three options:

-both factions kill cam

-one faction crossfires and hits a bpv

-kill idles

The first is impossible fmpov unless both factions have Ninjas, and idk why either faction would want to shoot each other as soon as the game starts rather than aiming for townies. Also, I don't see Ocean being a likely nightkill from the SK. Maybe SK!Refa is possible and got hit N1 but I dunno if Via would sub out as SK. I'm leaning towards no but I'm probably gonna reread it regardless.

So basically I'm starting to think Eli just got busy again and missed his kill completely? Idk if I'm just getting paranoid about this again.

It's also probably worth reminding people that Shin is unlikely scum because I decoyed him. Strongwilled SK is more likely but with only 2 scum I probably wouldn't lynch him just based on interactions anymore. The hardest part about this is SK Eli means either Shin is strongwilled or I misread Junko/Refa completely. Probably need to read back through.

[Refa]

SB, scum would never shoot Bizz on N1 after they were a viable wagon and claimed vanilla. Actually, I don't really see any of the alive players except you (who doesn't really make much sense as an SK) being hit on N1.

Why is Elieson SK as opposed to mafia?

I also have a quick question, why would scum use their ninja N1 (if they have one) on Cam? It just seems a rather unusual thing to do.

I assumed after this that he had a strongwilled shot honestly (I dunno if it's more likely that scum or SK has a strongwilled shot but yeah, it'd explain why there are several redirection roles in this game). Pretty sure I mentioned this before and if I didn't, then I meant too.

[Elieson]

Wrt the N1 kill, there are three options:

-both factions kill cam

-one faction crossfires and hits a bpv

-kill idles

The first is impossible fmpov unless both factions have Ninjas, and idk why either faction would want to shoot each other as soon as the game starts rather than aiming for townies. Also, I don't see Ocean being a likely nightkill from the SK. Maybe SK!Refa is possible and got hit N1 but I dunno if Via would sub out as SK. I'm leaning towards no but I'm probably gonna reread it regardless.

So basically I'm starting to think Eli just got busy again and missed his kill completely? Idk if I'm just getting paranoid about this again.

It's also probably worth reminding people that Shin is unlikely scum because I decoyed him. Strongwilled SK is more likely but with only 2 scum I probably wouldn't lynch him just based on interactions anymore. The hardest part about this is SK Eli means either Shin is strongwilled or I misread Junko/Refa completely. Probably need to read back through.

Please. If I had a night action, I might be lazy and not pay too much attention to the thread but you know I'd at least submit something.

[Junk]

actually i'm curious. If you really didn't want to vote frey why did you not vote me instead. It feels like you had more reason to vote me than elie.

also how is shin unlikely to be scum if SB targeted him. I'm dumb.

[Junk]

also tbh i have no idea how to hunt an SK so i'm mainly looking for last scum, if someone were to ask me who the SK was currently i have no idea.

going to try to go back and see if ocean mentioned anything at all about elie.

[Refa]

SB decoyed Shin on N2, so all of Shin's actions would have had to target SB. Chances are that he's just STRONGWILLED, though.

[Junk]

wait what's the point of the BP vest then assuming the SK is strong willed or has a strongman?

[Junk]

unless we're assuming this is x-shot strongman/strongwill?

[Refa]

Assuming X-Shot, but I reading Shin as mafia over SK; he could technically be SK, but that would just be a "haha, your read fucking sucked but somehow you lynched scum anyways, go you" sort of thing.

Strongman- Ignores protection (incredibly unlikely to impossible in this setup considering the lack of protection)

Strongwilled- Ignores redirects (what I think Shin actually had)

Actually, you know what, here are my thoughts on it already. I don't really have anything more to say than that.