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2 hours ago, Anacybele said:

Yeah, man, I gotta know when Greil's Devoted is returning! Preferably, gimme it tomorrow. 😄

 

to answer your question regarding building up conrad for mage duty, just give him barrier blade from silvia. poof. 

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32 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

to answer your question regarding building up conrad for mage duty, just give him barrier blade from silvia. poof. 

I can consider that. You quoted the wrong post though.

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I know but i wanted you to see it. i was in a hurry. 

but honestly, I still think if you want a tanky horsey mage. Eliwood is better than Conrad every day of the week, and a better source of resources invested.(and for me, distant counter on a seasonal is a significant investment unless they were heavily merged. I didn't give my Halloween Myrrh DC until she was at least +3). 

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7 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

I know but i wanted you to see it. i was in a hurry. 

but honestly, I still think if you want a tanky horsey mage. Eliwood is better than Conrad every day of the week, and a better source of resources invested.(and for me, distant counter on a seasonal is a significant investment unless they were heavily merged. I didn't give my Halloween Myrrh DC until she was at least +3). 

Conrad and Eliwood aren't mages, firstly. xP Second, sure, but I might merge Conrad some since he's also a 4 star focus on his banner and he'll be around for about a month. And like I said, I like him more than Eliwood as a character.

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17 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Banner spoiler prediction:

 

  Hide contents

Nils is obviously the star and since the surrounding circle in the notification is blue, I'm guessing he's a blue unit. Tagging along with Nils will be Athos as the red unit, Farina doubling up on blue as the outlier and to make people mad about less of a chance to get Nils, and Leila as the colorless unit because for some reason she's strangely very requested among FE7 characters, with Nergal tagging along as the GHB. If they bring back instant 3/4-star injections, Geitz will randomly show up.

 

Spoiler

Actually, that'd be opposite for me. In that instance, I would be happy with either Nils or Farina since Farina is my favorite Pegasus sister.

But no, Farina would likely be a GHB unit, sadly. Or the 3*-4* unit to join Florina in that pool, which I also wouldn't mind. The green unit might end up being Wallace or Harken, or Erk. 

 

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Erk joins with a fire tome though, at least in Lyn's story. I'd expect him to be red. I think my ideal banner here would be Nils, Sain, Fiora, and Wil. But it won't happen because it doesn't have enough females. 😕

 

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Thinking about the calendar, the main rerun I'm looking forward to right now is Petra. She could show up on either an Aerobatics or Form skills banner, and she'd be a lock for either one right now since the only main summoning pool options are Nino/Petra/Catria and Petra/Phina/Eyvel, respectively. I'd love a Petra/Phina/Eyvel banner, but it might be a bit soon for that. She also has Ground Orders, but we can't get an Orders skill banner yet since the only other main pool unit with one is Brave Micaiah.

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Only rerun banners I'm looking forward to are ones with Phina and/or Sirius on them. Seems like Sirius can show up on a Solo or Lull skills banner but it seems like Phina's only chance is for a Form skills banner which I'm not sure I would pull on it since Eyvel would most likely be color sharing with her. Though I guess I could always hope Phina shows up on a Voting Gauntlet banner someday and isn't color sharing with red there.

Other than that I'm mostly just saving orbs at the moment and waiting for Awakening to get a New Heroes banner. Though really I'm pretty much at the point where I don't really have a need to spend orbs on banners anymore because while I would like to get characters like Phina and Sirius I don't really need them for anything. They would just be nice to have.

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34 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

Only rerun banners I'm looking forward to are ones with Phina and/or Sirius on them. Seems like Sirius can show up on a Solo or Lull skills banner but it seems like Phina's only chance is for a Form skills banner which I'm not sure I would pull on it since Eyvel would most likely be color sharing with her. Though I guess I could always hope Phina shows up on a Voting Gauntlet banner someday and isn't color sharing with red there.

Other than that I'm mostly just saving orbs at the moment and waiting for Awakening to get a New Heroes banner. Though really I'm pretty much at the point where I don't really have a need to spend orbs on banners anymore because while I would like to get characters like Phina and Sirius I don't really need them for anything. They would just be nice to have.

I feel like people really overestimate the impact of color sharing. At minimum pity rate on a standard 3-character rerun banner, a given red orb has a 3.53% chance of being Phina if she's the only red unit, and a 3.41% chance if she's one of two. It's not very different.

In contrast, the odds for a red unit on a 4-character New Heroes (or Special Heroes) banner are 2.68%, which is way worse, and people pull on those all the time.

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2 hours ago, Othin said:

I feel like people really overestimate the impact of color sharing. At minimum pity rate on a standard 3-character rerun banner, a given red orb has a 3.53% chance of being Phina if she's the only red unit, and a 3.41% chance if she's one of two. It's not very different.

In contrast, the odds for a red unit on a 4-character New Heroes (or Special Heroes) banner are 2.68%, which is way worse, and people pull on those all the time.

Yeah, tell that to the nine copies of PA!Inigo and zero copies of PA!Azura I pulled over the last three years. I would like to believe color sharing actually increases your chances of getting the unit you want but every single time I tried pulling on a banner with units that color share it never ends well for me so I just don't bother with those kinds of banners anymore. I would actually rather pull on a four unit banner with all different colors than a three unit banner where two units are the same color.

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About the new calendar's banners I will pull on any banner with Lul Atk/Spd for fodder or a solo/rouse banner hoping to get Edelgard merges (she is +5 by sheer F2P luck). However, knowing this is unlikely to happen I will be saving for the legendary banner as I want so far all blues and reds from there. 

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15 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

Yeah, tell that to the nine copies of PA!Inigo and zero copies of PA!Azura I pulled over the last three years. I would like to believe color sharing actually increases your chances of getting the unit you want but every single time I tried pulling on a banner with units that color share it never ends well for me so I just don't bother with those kinds of banners anymore. I would actually rather pull on a four unit banner with all different colors than a three unit banner where two units are the same color.

That is extremely unlucky. If you pull nine focus units from a color sharing pair, the odds of them all being the one you want less are 1 in 512.

I'm not saying it increases the odds of getting a specific unit, it actually decreases them slightly, but like I said, it's only slightly and it's less than for a color balanced four unit banner. You're free to use your orbs however you want, but be aware that that's using them in a way that's demonstrably less likely to get what you want, and sounds like it's just because of superstition.

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2 hours ago, NSSKG151 said:

Yeah, tell that to the nine copies of PA!Inigo and zero copies of PA!Azura I pulled over the last three years. I would like to believe color sharing actually increases your chances of getting the unit

It’s not colour sharing, but the number of focus units that affects your probability of getting a specific unit. Since the 3% rate is split evenly.

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Regardless, the difference between summoning a five star focus unit between different types of banners is so negligible it really doesn't make much of a difference in the long run regardless of how many units are on the baaner and what color they are.

However, if Phina shows up on a banner with another red unit I will probably skip it, superstitions be damned. I already have ten other dancers in my barracks to choose from to do the basic function of a refresher unit. Not having her isn't going to bother me too much plus stocking up on orbs for other characters is always nice.

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On 2/6/2020 at 10:19 PM, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Banner spoiler prediction:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Nils is obviously the star and since the surrounding circle in the notification is blue, I'm guessing he's a blue unit. Tagging along with Nils will be Athos as the red unit, Farina doubling up on blue as the outlier and to make people mad about less of a chance to get Nils, and Leila as the colorless unit because for some reason she's strangely very requested among FE7 characters, with Nergal tagging along as the GHB. If they bring back instant 3/4-star injections, Geitz will randomly show up.

 

Spoiler

I’ll go with Lyndis’ Legion this time around.

- Nils (blue dragon or dagger)

- Kent (sword cav)

- Sain (axe cav)

- Wil or Rath (colorless bow)

Erk or Wallace as the insta-demote in red or blue. Sure, it’s all guys but they’ve already exhausted all females and the TMS banner was all girls. 

GHB: Lundgren (lance armor). Map based on Chapter 10. Silver Lance+ to be true to the source or...Rex Hasta just because. He’d be the first lance armor GHB unit since the game’s launch so he’d be quite a welcome addition to the F2P people. As for his skills, he could bring in Vengeful Fighter. 

 

Edited by Lord-Zero
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Spoiler

Sain goes on about how lances are heroic and stuff in the beginning of Lyn's story, so I'd think he'd be a lance cavy, but we do have a lot of those, and we do also need more axe cavies. I'd be cool if he was axe cavalry!

 

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1 hour ago, NSSKG151 said:

Regardless, the difference between summoning a five star focus unit between different types of banners is so negligible it really doesn't make much of a difference in the long run regardless of how many units are on the baaner and what color they are.

The number of units on a banner and the base summon rate matter a lot. The effect of color sharing is insignificant compared to random variation.

In the long run, these differences don't get swallowed up. They become more and more noticeable due to the law of large numbers.

Using a 4-character 3% banner as the baseline, the relative changes to summon rate look like this when sniping for one specific character:

  • 8%, 12 characters: ×0.9 (Legendary/Mythic Hero banner)
  • 3%, 4 characters: baseline, ×1.0
  • 3%, 3 characters: ×1.3
  • 5%, 4 characters: ×1.6 (Hero Fest banner)
  • 4%, 3 characters: ×1.8 (Weekly Revival banner)
  • 3%, 2 characters: ×2.0

Where color sharing actually has an effect is when you are simply aiming for 5-star characters with no regard to which 5-star character you get.

If you are not sniping colors and are just pulling all colors equally going for 5-star characters, than your 5-star summon rate is the same as the advertised rate (6% or 8% depending on the banner), but banners that are missing a color will still give you non-negligibly higher rates as long as you don't pull for the missing color.

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7 hours ago, NSSKG151 said:

Yeah, tell that to the nine copies of PA!Inigo and zero copies of PA!Azura I pulled over the last three years. I would like to believe color sharing actually increases your chances of getting the unit you want but every single time I tried pulling on a banner with units that color share it never ends well for me so I just don't bother with those kinds of banners anymore. I would actually rather pull on a four unit banner with all different colors than a three unit banner where two units are the same color.

i was legit going to bring this one up. 
Theoretically it's good, and i've been helped by it (My two Celicas vs. zero Leifs  on the Blazing Light Banner)
but I've also gotten like 2 Ikes to my 1 Elincia on that BHB Banner. 
and my 3 Inigos (and like almost every single pity breaker in the world) vs. one PA Azura. 


but. then again.Bride 1 banner kinda made up for it. 
i think it's a big fat ole "depends" and "Luck" 
and truthfully i would REALLY need to love the unit who is coloursharing. (and at this point my Love for Azura is diluted by my need never to see inigio's mug again. though to be fair i would love that dagger for Tethys to do heal build for her with triple breath of life). so who knows.
(look at me actually want Inigio now and Azura pops out...)

 

7 hours ago, SuperNova125 said:

About the new calendar's banners I will pull on any banner with Lul Atk/Spd for fodder or a solo/rouse banner hoping to get Edelgard merges (she is +5 by sheer F2P luck). However, knowing this is unlikely to happen I will be saving for the legendary banner as I want so far all blues and reds from there. 

i'm hoping (really) i can just be lucky and clutch out a good iv Petra. so i am not tempted to pull at all. she is now the only 3H unit i am missing (until the next 3H banner arrives where i will actually have to skip because I need to save as many orbs as possible for Dimitri/Claude/Lysithea. but really just Dimitri lol

 

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Spoiler

Man, I hope Nils isn't blue. We already have his sister as a blue dragon dancer. Hoping he's green or colorless, myself, but I'll be cool with whatever. Just happe to hear he's likely to finally be entered into the game! I like more serious characters, and Nils is cute, to boot! But seriously, I really would rather he not be blue... I have Ninian and Rinea (blue dancers) already, plus I built up my M!Kana, who is also a blue dragon.

 

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1 hour ago, Anacybele said:
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Sain goes on about how lances are heroic and stuff in the beginning of Lyn's story, so I'd think he'd be a lance cavy, but we do have a lot of those, and we do also need more axe cavies. I'd be cool if he was axe cavalry!

 

Spoiler

All they have to do is to give him the Raven treatment. He’d gladly switch weapons if it means getting more attention from the girls. Paladins could use axes in FE6 and FE7 so it’s pretty viable. We already had an all-girls main banner with #FE so an all-guys main banner could even things up a bit. 

 

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1 minute ago, Lord-Zero said:
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All they have to do is to give him the Raven treatment. He’d gladly switch weapons if it means getting more attention from the girls. Paladins could use axes in FE6 and FE7 so it’s pretty viable. We already had an all-girls main banner with #FE so an all-guys main banner could even things up a bit. 

 

Spoiler

Yeah, that's true. lol And an all guys banner, I'd dig that! Especially if both Sain and Wil are on it. 😄

So where the hell is the calendar? I really thought it would show up tonight. -_-

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