Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[BBM]

with Sully I agree with kirsche that a lot of it is fluff and/or saying wrong things/maybe misreps but then in the middle of the post he'll make a point that's good?

like for example I agree with the point that kirsche was acting like he found me scummy all along when all his stuff today is purely from today. yes, you can find nothing specifically objectionable about what I say and still be wary of me, but I don't see any attempt by kirsche to still push me or get any info from me yesterday that would help in his read of me. The only time he talks about me is to say that I'm the least likely to be scum out of his non-townreads and he still hasn't done a great job (to me) of showing why "subtly undermining his Sully case" was enough to overturn all that.

[Refa]

3 hours ago, Refa said:

BBM claimed who was in the QT before Kirsche claimed.  Scum!Kirsche could have claimed it, unless 1) it wasn't Prims' role 2) he thought BBM was hiding a part of it to trip him up or 3) he didn't think the claim would jive with his play beforehand (especially his suspicion on BBM).

@BBM My thoughts on the matter.  Setup wise, it's pretty obvious that at least one scum's fakeclaim is vanilla, even if it's not Kirsche specifically.  WRT Kirsche, with the limited information he had at the time of claiming, I think the safest play was to claim vanilla.

9 minutes ago, kirsche said:

Then you can understand how annoying it is for me when you claim Sully being skeptical of a lynch and flat out never reading the posts made by his top "scumread" are hard to fake as town.

Sully has gone from claiming I'm desperate and being unable to back up his points, to saying I am the liekly scum on PoE, to saying I never contribute to the greater game at hand (when all of my reads have a greater scum team in mind and I've been looking at associations between people and what their interactions mean for the scumteam at large). If he isn't making shit up as he goes along as town he is flat out deluding himself into things that are clearly not happening. If he's truly thinking about what happens in the thread out of game then he is deliberately thinking how to portray every action I have made as scummy.

Why am I a better lynch than Bart? Why am I scummy in the first place Refa?

(I assume you mean hard to fake as "scum") Being skeptical of a lynch isn't hard to do as scum, but to go from being skeptical to asking questions and reading other players is not what I'd expect newb scum to do.  Misreading posts by his top scumread is something that makes me doubt my read on him, it doesn't affirm it.  It's just something I could see him doing as town, but it doesn't make him town.

I agree that Sully is misunderstanding/misrepping you at times but I'm not getting the impression he's doing it out of malice.  Sorry if I'm wrong and you're town AND he's scum, but it's like...you have to assume that Scum!Sully is brave enough to feel like he can get away with misrepping you, good enough that a good deal of his misreps can be interpreted as misunderstandings, and persistent enough that he'll keep on doing it despite getting a lot of flake from BBM on D1...all on his first scum game.  Or he could just be town.

You're a better lynch than Bart because Bart will be forced to POE himself as scum.  You're scummy in the first place because your play today read as opportunistic to me.  First of all, two minutes into the phase after a scum kill you are already comfortable with voting Sully without bothering to reevaluate anything.  Secondly, your vote on BBM bothered me for reasons he already outlined.  Finally, your interactions w/Bart bother me (my second highest scumread) because you're constantly detailing a suspicion of him but then you never make good on that.  This would be fine on its own but when Bartozio is doing the same exact thing and when you're both voting the SAME EXACT PERSON, it seems off!

 

[Refa]

I realized that I didn't mention your play from previous days and honestly that's because you did clear up all of my issues regarding that.  The only thing that bothered me is that you didn't really have any strong pushes D2, which can be chalked up to being busy, so I'm not sure how alignment relevant that is.  What bothers me more is that you wrote a huge spiel on Shinori being scum D3, but I don't remember you pushing Shinori much on D2 (I know you guys interacted, but I can't remember anything except him calling you unmemorable).  Your Prims push felt the same to me.  Actually, that might be my issue with the majority of your cases and I don't know if that's just a playstyle thing or a scum thing but it feels like there's no build up to your cases at all.  You just reread and suddenly have votes on people, but the problem is, you should only be rereading if you're unsure/suspicious of a slot in the first place.  I can see you having that impression of Shinori, but I don't remember reading much about Prims and BBM that made me think you weren't townreading them.

[BBM]

question Refa why do you think Marth's role makes sense with Mack's?

actually you know what what Refa said about kirsche/Bart suspecting each other while both voting the same person reminds me heavily of me/Manix in Spellcard. I'm going to stick with this kirsche vote.

[Refa]

Just now, BBM said:

question Refa why do you think Marth's role makes sense with Mack's?

actually you know what what Refa said about kirsche/Bart suspecting each other while both voting the same person reminds me heavily of me/Manix in Spellcard. I'm going to stick with this kirsche vote.

because the whole point of mackc2's role is that if he claims before d4, he gets blicked no question.  therefore, a town protective role that can't directly protect mackc2 (so he doesn't get rewarded for doing something that he shouldn't) makes sense to me.

[Zkirsche]

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I fully admitted that I waffled on Shinori in one post, but my point was that my overall read on Shinori was consistently that I thought he was suspicious, even if I never voted him.

That's true, but the only reasons that really came forth from D1 was that you found Shinori to be scum on gut. That's why I viewed it as not great. I didn't pressure much D2 because I didn't find anything to pressure. Everything seemed good, which is what made me think my initial read on you was me being paranoid because logically you seemed like the most liekly town, then you come in this phase and accuse me of a lot of things in a way that I find super aggravating and misinterpret it as scum trying to paint everything I do as scummy without putting any thought behind it. That's why much of my case that isn't leftover gut from D1 was stuff you did this phase.

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I don't understand how you can say with a straight face that your Sully case wasn't barebones

You didn't say it was barebones though, you didn't say that the reasosn I had for suspecting Sully weren't much of a case, you said that I spent most of my case asking other people what they thought and (half)defending Sully. The first bit isn't bad, the second bit isn't true. Explaining why I disagree with other Sully points isn't me defending Sully. Thsi is what frustrated me about that post and why I thought you were just trying to undermine my case. If you had said that there wasn't a lot of concrete reasons for me voting Sully I would have agreed with you! I had my reservations early on about the lynch and wanted to talk more with Sully to get a better feel for his play and get more of an impression of what he was trying to do.

I mean, Sully voting people opportunistically isn't opportunistic unless it matters who they're voting.? Sully voting Mich randomly D1 wouldn't be opportunistic unless significant pressure on Mich was mounting.

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I didn't say you were suspicious for playing to your town meta

I meant that you were saying I was suspicious even though by your own admission I'm playing like my town self in that regard.

I'm getting flashbacks to when Prims defended himself against Refa by saying that Refa explained his own scumreasons.

@Refa

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you have to assume that Scum!Sully is brave enough to feel like he can get away with misrepping you, good enough that a good deal of his misreps can be interpreted as misunderstandings, and persistent enough that he'll keep on doing it despite getting a lot of flake from BBM on D1...all on his first scum game.

It's not brave when there were only really 4 widely-viewed scummy players left after the flips this phase: me, him, Mich and Bartozio. Marth and BBM were widely townread and Via/Refa were also. (Remember when Sully was "paranoid" about you? Come on, it's in scum!Sully's best itnerests to try and cool off people on just assuming there's all these obvtown in the thread). He voted Bart, which is a plus, but then switches to me for reasons he can no longer justify and is now claiming I am obviously scum, that everything I do makes me look scummier and that my defence is cracked up. Sully doesn't have to be good to be persistent or for his stuff to be interpreted as misinterpretations. The latter is on us.

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You're a better lynch than Bart because Bart will be forced to POE himself as scum.  You're scummy in the first place because your play today read as opportunistic to me.  First of all, two minutes into the phase after a scum kill you are already comfortable with voting Sully without bothering to reevaluate anything.  Secondly, your vote on BBM bothered me for reasons he already outlined.  Finally, your interactions w/Bart bother me (my second highest scumread) because you're constantly detailing a suspicion of him but then you never make good on that.  This would be fine on its own but when Bartozio is doing the same exact thing and when you're both voting the SAME EXACT PERSON, it seems off!

From my perspective you lynch me and Bart can just force a 1v1 to end the game. Reminder that even if Bart forces a 1v1 tomorrow and one of him/them flips scum the other can very well still be scum.

I didn't need to reevaluate much because I didn't like Sully's interactions with Shinori so once Shinori flipped scum I was plenty happy with voting Sully. If not for the lynch then definitely for pressure.

"Never make good on that" -> I'm arguing to lynch him over me here. Before BBM became confirmed town I thought he was scum with Sully so of course I'm not going to vote him there.

Bart voted Sully after his Marth push failed because he has been scumreading Sully all game and so he defaulted there for safety. I bet he's forged this case on me last minute to make it look like his switch to me for consolidation at phase end isn't as bad as it could be used as an excuse to hop off his buddy.

[BBM]

IMO if kirsche is scum, Marth and Bartozio should both target Elie. that way if Marth dies we'll know from Bart whether it was Elie or not. If he says it's Elie then we have a 1v1 between Bart and Elie. If he says it's not Elie, or if someone other than Marth dies, Elie is clear and then we pick between Sully or Bart to lynch tomorrow.

if kirsche is town it gets more murky bc it's tougher to get useful info from Bart and Marth's roles and Bart can lie to protect a buddy or bus a buddy. I would have Bart track Sully and Marth decoy Elie. If Marth dies we lynch between Bart and either Sully or Elie, depending on what Bart says that Sully did. If someone other than Marth dies we lynch either Bart or Sully. In this situation though, there are no potential clears; regardless of what happens any two people can be scum.

the challenge (especially in the town kirsche scenario) is that outing targets makes it easier for scum to develop a plan. But Marth's role is such that if we don't know who he targeted, we can't get any info from his death.

[Refa]

Scum can just kill Marth in the first scenario and potentially frame whoever he targeted.

[BBM]

3 minutes ago, kirsche said:

That's true, but the only reasons that really came forth from D1 was that you found Shinori to be scum on gut. That's why I viewed it as not great. I didn't pressure much D2 because I didn't find anything to pressure. Everything seemed good, which is what made me think my initial read on you was me being paranoid because logically you seemed like the most liekly town, then you come in this phase and accuse me of a lot of things in a way that I find super aggravating and misinterpret it as scum trying to paint everything I do as scummy without putting any thought behind it. That's why much of my case that isn't leftover gut from D1 was stuff you did this phase.

Okay to the first part, but like... I didn't vote you right away and asked you a bunch of questions when I voted you. So I don't see how I was trying to paint everything you did as scummy the whole time.

You didn't say it was barebones though, you didn't say that the reasosn I had for suspecting Sully weren't much of a case, you said that I spent most of my case asking other people what they thought and (half)defending Sully. The first bit isn't bad, the second bit isn't true. Explaining why I disagree with other Sully points isn't me defending Sully. Thsi is what frustrated me about that post and why I thought you were just trying to undermine my case. If you had said that there wasn't a lot of concrete reasons for me voting Sully I would have agreed with you! I had my reservations early on about the lynch and wanted to talk more with Sully to get a better feel for his play and get more of an impression of what he was trying to do.

It depends on context. If you give five reasons for finding someone suspicious and then say one other reason is wrong- that's not defending. If you give two reasons for finding Sully suspicious (hopping around opportunistically + Shinori interactions) and then say two other reasons aren't good (Sully sheeping and Sully coaching), it looks like half-defending. From there, to me at least, your case being "barely a case" is a) justified and b) pretty much the same as barebones?

I mean, Sully voting people opportunistically isn't opportunistic unless it matters who they're voting.? Sully voting Mich randomly D1 wouldn't be opportunistic unless significant pressure on Mich was mounting.

Okay but my point in the last post was that you didn't give examples until I pushed you to.

I meant that you were saying I was suspicious even though by your own admission I'm playing like my town self in that regard.

I'm getting flashbacks to when Prims defended himself against Refa by saying that Refa explained his own scumreasons.

I said it was a liiiittle suspicious; I talked about the Shinori interactions only to be complete.

responses in bold inside the quote

[BBM]

17 minutes ago, Refa said:

Scum can just kill Marth in the first scenario and potentially frame whoever he targeted.

that's why Bart tracks one of Sully/Elie as well so that we know what the other person did.

tbh it doesn't actually matter who Bart targets out of Sully/Elie; we can piece together tomorrow what that means with regards to which two people are guaranteed to have at least one scum between them. 

to be even more honest it doesn't even matter who Marth targets in the town kirsche scenario because all that really matters is who Bartozio says goes where. in the scum kirsche scenario it at least gives us a solid clear if someone other than him dies.

[BBM]

and to be the most honest if someone other than Marth dies then he can just tell us whom he targeted, which means I mostly wasted my time going over all those situations and possibilities. they all boil down to:

marth and bart should both target one of sully/elie. if bart says someone goes somewhere, lynch either him or that person. if he says they don't go anywhere, lynch either him or the other person.

[Zkirsche]

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Okay to the first part, but like... I didn't vote you right away and asked you a bunch of questions when I voted you. So I don't see how I was trying to paint everything you did as scummy the whole time.

Yeah, that's where I got a bit blinded because of my frustration.

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Okay but my point in the last post was that you didn't give examples until I pushed you to.

Yeah but that's my b I thought it s a commonly held knowledge that Sully hopped on to a lot of wagons as they were building.

My case was barebones but I'll have to agree to disagree on the half defending nonsense. Imo it isn't defending someone to ask for others opinions on something that you are doubtful about.

[Zkirsche]

If I was scumbuddies with Bart would I really not pay any attention to Bart's or Shinori's posts until late D2?

[charlie_]

Votals 3.5

kirsche (3): Refa, BBM, SullyMcGully
SullyMcGully (3): Via, Bartozio, kirsche

Not Voting (2): Elieson, Marth

There are 3 hours and 5 minutes left in the day. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 5 to hammer.

[BBM]

36 minutes ago, kirsche said:

If I was scumbuddies with Bart would I really not pay any attention to Bart's or Shinori's posts until late D2?

not having interactions is the best way to avoid having scummy interactions. that's why I said your interactions with Shinori are a little suspicious. I don't remember you saying much about me in the smogon game.

I a) am not locking you in to be buddies with Bart, and b) don't really think it's true that you didn't pay attention to Bart until late D2 since you began D2 by voting him.

@Quote @Elieson @Magnificence Incarnate we need at least one of you to secure the lynch.

I'm leaving now; hopefully will be back just before phase end if nobody else comes back and I need to switch votes to get a lynch

[Elieson]

Spoiler

 

I'll be here and able to post. I don't see Sully as being genuine noobtown. I've been noobscum (my first two games were scum) and one way I dodged a lot of suspicion was asking questions rather than giving thoughts, and it feels like that's how sully's first day largely went. HOWEVER, would #91 (from Sully) and his implication that "Michelaar has a reputation for looking guiltier than he is" something that was stated in this game prior to? I didn't really see it, and the backpedal reference to Kemomo Mafia seems strangely out of place.

 

I'd rather pursue Bartozio for a super sketchy early game (though considering I ML'd him and hear that he's easy ML fodder, I wonder if I'm just jumping on something that feels easy).

 

I've got no reason based on the entirety of Day 1 to comfortably vote for kirsche.

[Elieson]

WELL OK there is a spoiler in my post

 

Yea, skimming backwards through D3 but following the game through D1 is super confusing because i'm trying to seriously read into BBM and Refa but because they're effectively confirmed, it's screwing with me. I'm gonna try D2 again but this largely feels like an exercise in frustration and I'd rather just do things the lazy way and ask for people to summarize things in a simple bullet list for me regarding why people are clear vs scum BUT THAT'S UNCOOL SO I WON'T ACTUALLY ASK IT, I just want to, since i'm still salty about the last game being Cardflip and this game being cardflip (seriously, it's the worst gametype ever, why do people host them, wtf is a trickster).

 

Levi I feel super sketch about this post with so much time left in d3

 

READING BACKWARDS I SAID I SHOULDN'T DO IT BUT IM DOIN IT ANYWAY

[Zkirsche]

@BBM: yeah but like, I didn't even read their posts lmao. Guess I've got no way of proving that to you.

[BBM]

So you voted Bart ed2 without having really read his posts?

Sigh elie the newbscum whisperer is making me waffle again

[Zkirsche]

Yes. I basically voted him because of Prims' case and because I didn't think he was very active.

[Zkirsche]

It wasn't a good vote tbh which is why I ended the day with no vote.

[charlie_]

50 minutes remain in the day.

Day 3 is currently ending in no lynch.

[Elieson]

Know what

 

im at an impass (literally, im at a stopped train crossing). Not liking this ubertie though, and Im still not quite feeling like enough of a jerk to vote for kirsche when i have a completely rational newbscum case to fall onto my own sword with

 

##Vote sully

 

 

 

[Elieson]

Im hard nullrrading levi btw. Why is she basically super mega town atm?

[BBM]

yeah yeah I'm here to get a lynch

@Elieson how is your reread going? Which parts of the game have you read and do you still think Sully is scummier than kirsche and if so why?